A comprehensive, predictive mortality score for patients with bloodstream infections (PROBAC): a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Bloodstream infections (BSI) are an important cause of mortality, although they show heterogeneity depending on patients and aetiological factors. Comprehensive and specific mortality scores for BSI are scarce. The objective of this study was to develop a mortality predictive score in BSI based on a multicentre prospective cohort. METHODS: A prospective cohort including consecutive adults with bacteraemia recruited between October 2016 and March 2017 in 26 Spanish hospitals was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (DC) and a validation cohort (VC). The outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. Predictors were assessed the day of blood culture growth. A logistic regression model and score were developed in the DC for mortality predictors; the model was applied to the VC. RESULTS: Overall, 4102 patients formed the DC and 2009 the VC. Mortality was 11.8% in the DC and 12.34% in the CV; the patients and aetiological features were similar for both cohorts. The mortality predictors selected in the final multivariate model in the DC were age, cancer, liver cirrhosis, fatal McCabe underlying condition, polymicrobial bacteraemia, high-risk aetiologies, high-risk source of infection, recent use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, stupor or coma, mean blood pressure <70 mmHg and PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300 or equivalent. Mortality in the DC was <2% for ≤2 points, 6%-14% for 3-7 points, 26%-45% for 8-12 points and ≥60% for ≥13 points. The predictive score had areas under the receiving operating curves of 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83) in the DC and 0.80 (0.78-0.83) in the VC. CONCLUSIONS: A 30 day mortality predictive score in BSI with good discrimination ability was developed and internally validated.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa Community-Onset Bloodstream Infections: Characterization, Diagnostic Predictors, and Predictive Score Development-Results from the PRO-BAC Cohort.

Community-onset bloodstream infections (CO-BSI) caused by gram-negative bacilli are common and associated with significant mortality; those caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa are associated with worse prognosis and higher rates of inadequateempirical antibiotic treatment. The aims of this study were to describe the characteristics of patients with CO-BSI caused by P. aeruginosa, to identify predictors, and to develop a predictive score for P. aeruginosa CO-BSI. Materials/methods: PROBAC is a prospective cohort including patients >14 years with BSI from 26 Spanish hospitals between October 2016 and May 2017. Patients with monomicrobial P. aeruginosa CO-BSI and monomicrobial Enterobacterales CO-BSI were included. Variables of interest were collected. Independent predictors of Pseudomonas aeruginosa CO-BSI were identified by logistic regression and a prediction score was developed. Results: A total of 78patients with P. aeruginosa CO-BSI and 2572 with Enterobacterales CO-BSI were included. Patients with P. aeruginosa had a median age of 70 years (IQR 60−79), 68.8% were male, median Charlson score was 5 (IQR 3−7), and 30-daymortality was 18.5%. Multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of CO-BSI-PA [adjusted OR (95% CI)]: male gender [1.89 (1.14−3.12)], haematological malignancy [2.45 (1.20−4.99)], obstructive uropathy [2.86 (1.13−3.02)], source of infection other than urinary tract, biliary tract or intra-abdominal [6.69 (4.10−10.92)] and healthcare-associated BSI [1.85 (1.13−3.02)]. Anindex predictive of CO-BSI-PA was developed; scores ≥ 3.5 showed a negative predictive value of 89% and an area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) of 0.66. Conclusions: We did not find a good predictive score of P. aeruginosa CO-BSI due to its relatively low incidence in the overall population. Our model includes variables that are easy to collect in real clinical practice and could be useful to detect patients with very low risk of P. aeruginosa CO-BSI.

Risk Factors and Predictive Score for Bacteremic Biliary Tract Infections Due to Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium: a Multicenter Cohort Study from the PROBAC Project.

Biliary-tract bloodstream infections (BT-BSI) caused by Enterococcus faecalis and E. faecium are associated with inappropriate empirical treatment and worse outcomes compared to other etiologies. The objective of this study was to investigate the risk factors for enterococcal BT-BSI. Patients with BT-BSI from the PROBAC cohort, including consecutive patients with BSI in 26 Spanish hospitals between October 2016 and March 2017, were selected; episodes caused by E. faecalis or E. faecium and other causes were compared. Independent predictors for enterococci were identified by logistic regression, and a predictive score was developed. Eight hundred fifty episodes of BT-BSI were included; 73 (8.5%) were due to target Enterococcus spp. (48 [66%] were E. faecium and 25 [34%] E. faecalis). By multivariate analysis, the variables independently associated with Enterococcus spp. were (OR; 95% confidence interval): cholangiocarcinoma (4.48;1.32 to 15.25), hospital acquisition (3.58;2.11 to 6.07), use of carbapenems in the previous month (3.35;1.45 to 7.78), biliary prosthesis (2.19;1.24 to 3.90), and moderate or severe chronic kidney disease (1.55;1.07 to 2.26). The AUC of the model was 0.74 [95% CI0.67 to 0.80]. A score was developed, with 7, 6, 5, 4, and 2 points for these variables, respectively, with a negative predictive value of 95% for a score ≤ 6. A model, including cholangiocarcinoma, biliary prosthesis, hospital acquisition, previous carbapenems, and chronic kidney disease showed moderate prediction ability for enterococcal BT-BSI. Although the score will need to be validated, this information may be useful for deciding empirical therapy in biliary tract infections when bacteremia is suspected. IMPORTANCE Biliary tract infections are frequent, and a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Bacteremia is common in these infections, particularly in the elderly and patients with cancer. Inappropriate empirical treatment has been associated with increased risk of mortality in bacteremic cholangitis, and the probability of receiving inactive empirical treatment is higher in episodes caused by enterococci. This is because many of the antimicrobial agents recommended in guidelines for biliary tract infections lack activity against these organisms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing the predictive factors for enterococcal BT-BSI and deriving a predictive score.

Does my patient really need this at admission? Seven opportunities for improving value in patient care during their hospitalization.

INTRODUCTION: Besides the main treatment for their disease, hospital patients receive multiple care measures which include venous lines (VL), urinary catheters (UC), dietary restrictions (DR), mandatory bed rest (BR), deep venous thrombosis prophylaxis (VTP), stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) and anticoagulation bridge therapy for atrial fibrillation (BAF). In many cases these practices are of low value. METHODS: We analysed patients admitted to Internal Medicine wards throughout 2018 (2714 inpatients). We used different methodologies to identify low-value clinical practices. RESULTS: BR or DR at admission were recommended in 37% (32-44) and 24% (19-30) of the patients respectively. In 81% (71-87) and 33% (21-45) of the cases this restriction was deemed unnecessary. Ninety-six percent (92-98) had VL and 25% (19-32) UC. VL were not used in 10% (6-12), UC had no indications for insertion in 21% (11-35) and for maintenance in 31% (12-46) patients. Fifty-seven percent (49-64) of the patients were administered VTP and 69% (62-76) were prescribed SUP. Twenty-two percent (15-31) of patients with VTP and 52% (43-60) with SUP had no indication. Chronic anticoagulation for AF was interrupted in 65% (53-75) with BAF was prescribed in 38% (25-52) of them. An intervention to reduce low-value care supporting clinical practices addressed only to the Internal Medicine Wards showed very poor results. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that there is ample room for reduction of low-value care. Interventions to implement clinical guidelines at admissions should be addressed to cover the entire admission process, from the emergency room to the ward. Partial approaches are discouraged.