Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk Chinese.

No prediction rule is currently available for advanced colorectal neoplasms, defined as invasive cancer, an adenoma of 10 mm or more, a villous adenoma, or an adenoma with high-grade dysplasia, in average-risk Chinese. In this study between 2006 and 2008, a total of 7,541 average-risk Chinese persons aged 40 years or older who had complete colonoscopy were included. The derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 5,229 and 2,312 persons, respectively. A prediction rule was developed from a logistic regression model and then internally and externally validated. The prediction rule comprised 8 variables (age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, green vegetables, pickled food, fried food, and white meat), with scores ranging from 0 to 14. Among the participants with low-risk (≤3) or high-risk (>3) scores in the validation cohort, the risks of advanced neoplasms were 2.6% and 10.0% (P < 0.001), respectively. If colonoscopy was used only for persons with high risk, 80.3% of persons with advanced neoplasms would be detected while the number of colonoscopies would be reduced by 49.2%. The prediction rule had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.78) and calibration (P = 0.77) and, thus, provides accurate risk stratification for advanced neoplasms in average-risk Chinese.

Chinese National Consensus on diagnosis and management of Barrett's esophagus (BE): revised edition, June 2011, Chongqing, China.

To standardize the diagnosis and management of Barrett's esophagus (BE) in China, the Chinese Society of Gastroenterology convened the Second National Conference on BE in June 2011 in Chongqing, China. After intense discussion among experts in this field and an extensive review of the literature, a revised consensus on the diagnosis and management of BE was generated.