Nomogram for suboptimal cytoreduction at primary surgery for advanced stage ovarian cancer.

AIM: Maximal cytoreduction to minimal residual tumor is the most important determinant of prognosis in patients with advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Preoperative prediction of suboptimal cytoreduction, defined as residual tumor >1 cm, could guide treatment decisions and improve counseling. The objective of this study was to identify predictive computed tomographic (CT) scan and clinical parameters for suboptimal cytoreduction at primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC and to generate a nomogram with the identified parameters, which would be easy to use in daily clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between October 2005 and December 2008, all patients with primary surgery for suspected advanced stage EOC at six participating teaching hospitals in the South Western part of the Netherlands entered the study protocol. To investigate independent predictors of suboptimal cytoreduction, a Cox proportional hazard model with backward stepwise elimination was utilized. RESULTS: One hundred and fifteen patients with FIGO stage III/IV EOC entered the study protocol. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 52 (45%) patients. A suboptimal cytoreduction was predicted by preoperative blood platelet count (p=0.1990; odds ratio (OR)=1.002), diffuse peritoneal thickening (DPT) (p=0.0074; OR=3.021), and presence of ascites on at least two thirds of CT scan slices (p=0.0385; OR=2.294) with a for-optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.67. CONCLUSION: Suboptimal cytoreduction was predicted by preoperative platelet count, DPT and presence of ascites. The generated nomogram can, after external validation, be used to estimate surgical outcome and to identify those patients, who might benefit from alternative treatment approaches.

Prediction of residual disease after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced-stage ovarian cancer: accuracy of clinical judgment.

OBJECTIVES: Treatment of patients with an advanced-stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is based on cytoreductive surgery and platinum-based chemotherapy. Amount of residual disease after primary cytoreductive surgery is an important prognostic factor. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility of preoperative clinical judgment of residual disease after primary cytoreductive surgery and to compare the predictive performance of the offhand assessment to the predictive performance of prediction models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifteen observers (5 gynecologic oncologists, 5 gynecologists, and 5 senior residents) were offered preoperative data of 20 patients with advanced-stage EOC who underwent primary cytoreductive surgery. The observers were asked to predict residual disease after cytoreductive surgery (1 cm). Their estimation was compared with the performance of 2 prediction models. RESULTS: Overall, suboptimal cytoreduction was predicted with a sensitivity of 50% and a specificity of 56%. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.27. chi(2) Test showed no significant difference in prediction of suboptimal cytoreduction between the different subgroups and prediction models. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical judgment of residual disease after primary cytoreductive surgery in patients with advanced-stage EOC shows limited accuracy. Given the poor interobserver reproducibility, prediction models could attribute to uniform treatment decisions and improve counseling.