Development of a risk score to identify patients at high risk for a severe course of COVID-19.

Aim: We aimed to develop a risk score to calculate a person's individual risk for a severe COVID-19 course (POINTED score) to support prioritization of especially vulnerable patients for a (booster) vaccination. Subject and methods: This cohort study was based on German claims data and included 623,363 individuals with a COVID-19 diagnosis in 2020. The outcome was COVID-19 related treatment in an intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or death after a COVID-19 infection. Data were split into a training and a test sample. Poisson regression models with robust standard errors including 35 predefined risk factors were calculated. Coefficients were rescaled with a min-max normalization to derive numeric score values between 0 and 20 for each risk factor. The scores' discriminatory ability was evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Results: Besides age, down syndrome and hematologic cancer with therapy, immunosuppressive therapy, and other neurological conditions were the risk factors with the highest risk for a severe COVID-19 course. The AUC of the POINTED score was 0.889, indicating very good predictive validity. Conclusion: The POINTED score is a valid tool to calculate a person's risk for a severe COVID-19 course. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01884-7.

Optimising the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on mortality and hospitalisations using an individual additive risk measuring approach based on a risk adjustment scheme.

In this population-based cohort study, billing data from German statutory health insurance (BARMER, 10% of population) are used to develop a prioritisation model for COVID-19 vaccinations based on cumulative underlying conditions. Using a morbidity-based classification system, prevalence and risks for COVID-19-related hospitalisations, ventilations and deaths are estimated. Trisomies, behavioural and developmental disorders (relative risk: 2.09), dementia and organic psychoorganic syndromes (POS) (2.23) and (metastasised) malignant neoplasms (1.99) were identified as the most important conditions for escalations of COVID-19 infection. Moreover, optimal vaccination priority schedules for participants are established on the basis of individual cumulative escalation risk and are compared to the prioritisation scheme chosen by the German Government. We estimate how many people would have already received a vaccination prior to escalation. Vaccination schedules based on individual cumulative risk are shown to be 85% faster than random schedules in preventing deaths, and as much as 57% faster than the German approach, which was based primarily on age and specific diseases. In terms of hospitalisation avoidance, the individual cumulative risk approach was 51% and 28% faster. On this basis, it is concluded that using individual cumulative risk-based vaccination schedules, healthcare systems can be relieved and escalations more optimally avoided.

Docetaxel plus epirubicin is a highly active, well-tolerated, first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer: results of a large, multicentre phase II study.

PURPOSE: In this multicentre phase II study, the efficacy and safety profile of the combination of docetaxel and epirubicin as first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer (MBC) were evaluated. METHODS: Epirubicin (75 mg/m(2)) and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) were given intravenously once every 3 weeks for six cycles to 133 patients with MBC. RESULTS: The overall clinical response rate was 67% (complete and partial responses were 23% and 44%, respectively). The median time to progression was 10.8 months (95% CI 9.7-12.6) and the median overall survival was 19.5 months. Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor support was administered to 32% of patients and in 22% of cycles. Grade 3/4 neutropenia occurred in 35% of patients and febrile neutropenia in 19%. The most frequent grade 3/4 non-haematological toxicities (as percent of patients) were asthenia (6%), vomiting (5%) and nausea (5%). No patients developed congestive heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of docetaxel and epirubicin was highly active as first-line treatment for MBC and showed a manageable toxicity profile.