Complex trait methylation scores in the prediction of major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation (DNAm) is associated with time-varying environmental factors that contribute to major depressive disorder (MDD) risk. We sought to test whether DNAm signatures of lifestyle and biochemical factors were associated with MDD to reveal dynamic biomarkers of MDD risk that may be amenable to lifestyle interventions. METHODS: Here, we calculated methylation scores (MS) at multiple p-value thresholds for lifestyle (BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption, and educational attainment) and biochemical (high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and total cholesterol) factors in Generation Scotland (GS) (N=9,502) and in a replication cohort (ALSPACadults, N=565), using CpG sites reported in previous well-powered methylome-wide association studies. We also compared their predictive accuracy for MDD to a MDD MS in an independent GS sub-sample (N=4,432). FINDINGS: Each trait MS was significantly associated with its corresponding phenotype in GS (ßrange=0.089-1.457) and in ALSPAC (ßrange=0.078-2.533). Each MS was also significantly associated with MDD before and after adjustment for its corresponding phenotype in GS (ßrange=0.053-0.145). After accounting for relevant lifestyle factors, MS for educational attainment (ß=0.094) and alcohol consumption (MSp-value<0.01-0.5; ßrange=-0.069-0.083) remained significantly associated with MDD in GS. Smoking (AUC=0.569) and educational attainment (AUC=0.585) MSs could discriminate MDD from controls better than the MDD MS (AUC=0.553) in the independent GS sub-sample. Analyses implicating MDD did not replicate across ALSPAC, although the direction of effect was consistent for all traits when adjusting for the MS corresponding phenotypes. INTERPRETATION: We showed that lifestyle and biochemical MS were associated with MDD before and after adjustment for their corresponding phenotypes (pnominal<0.05), but not when smoking, alcohol consumption, and BMI were also included as covariates. MDD results did not replicate in the smaller, female-only independent ALSPAC cohort (NALSPAC=565; NGS=9,502), potentially due to demographic differences or low statistical power, but effect sizes were consistent with the direction reported in GS. DNAm scores for modifiable MDD risk factors may contribute to disease vulnerability and, in some cases, explain additional variance to their observed phenotypes. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Epigenetic prediction of major depressive disorder.

Variation in DNA methylation (DNAm) is associated with lifestyle factors such as smoking and body mass index (BMI) but there has been little research exploring its ability to identify individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD). Using penalised regression on genome-wide CpG methylation, we tested whether DNAm risk scores (MRS), trained on 1223 MDD cases and 1824 controls, could discriminate between cases (n = 363) and controls (n = 1417) in an independent sample, comparing their predictive accuracy to polygenic risk scores (PRS). The MRS explained 1.75% of the variance in MDD (ß = 0.338, p = 1.17 × 10-7) and remained associated after adjustment for lifestyle factors (ß = 0.219, p = 0.001, R2 = 0.68%). When modelled alongside PRS (ß = 0.384, p = 4.69 × 10-9) the MRS remained associated with MDD (ß = 0.327, p = 5.66 × 10-7). The MRS was also associated with incident cases of MDD who were well at recruitment but went on to develop MDD at a later assessment (ß = 0.193, p = 0.016, R2 = 0.52%). Heritability analyses found additive genetic effects explained 22% of variance in the MRS, with a further 19% explained by pedigree-associated genetic effects and 16% by the shared couple environment. Smoking status was also strongly associated with MRS (ß = 0.440, p ≤ 2 × 10-16). After removing smokers from the training set, the MRS strongly associated with BMI (ß = 0.053, p = 0.021). We tested the association of MRS with 61 behavioural phenotypes and found that whilst PRS were associated with psychosocial and mental health phenotypes, MRS were more strongly associated with lifestyle and sociodemographic factors. DNAm-based risk scores of MDD significantly discriminated MDD cases from controls in an independent dataset and may represent an archive of exposures to lifestyle factors that are relevant to the prediction of MDD.

Associations between vascular risk factors and brain MRI indices in UK Biobank.

AIMS: Several factors are known to increase risk for cerebrovascular disease and dementia, but there is limited evidence on associations between multiple vascular risk factors (VRFs) and detailed aspects of brain macrostructure and microstructure in large community-dwelling populations across middle and older age. METHODS AND RESULTS: Associations between VRFs (smoking, hypertension, pulse pressure, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, body mass index, and waist-hip ratio) and brain structural and diffusion MRI markers were examined in UK Biobank (N = 9722, age range 44-79 years). A larger number of VRFs was associated with greater brain atrophy, lower grey matter volume, and poorer white matter health. Effect sizes were small (brain structural R2 ≤1.8%). Higher aggregate vascular risk was related to multiple regional MRI hallmarks associated with dementia risk: lower frontal and temporal cortical volumes, lower subcortical volumes, higher white matter hyperintensity volumes, and poorer white matter microstructure in association and thalamic pathways. Smoking pack years, hypertension and diabetes showed the most consistent associations across all brain measures. Hypercholesterolaemia was not uniquely associated with any MRI marker. CONCLUSION: Higher levels of VRFs were associated with poorer brain health across grey and white matter macrostructure and microstructure. Effects are mainly additive, converging upon frontal and temporal cortex, subcortical structures, and specific classes of white matter fibres. Though effect sizes were small, these results emphasize the vulnerability of brain health to vascular factors even in relatively healthy middle and older age, and the potential to partly ameliorate cognitive decline by addressing these malleable risk factors.