Clinician and health service interventions to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions generated by healthcare: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesise the available evidence on the effects of interventions designed to improve the delivery of healthcare that reduces the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of healthcare. DESIGN: Systematic review and structured synthesis. SEARCH SOURCES: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed, Web of Science and Embase from inception to 3 May 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised, quasi-randomised and non-randomised controlled trials, interrupted time series and controlled or uncontrolled before-after studies that assessed interventions primarily designed to improve the delivery of healthcare that reduces the GHG emissions of healthcare initiated by clinicians or healthcare services within any setting. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was GHG emissions. Secondary outcomes were financial costs, effectiveness, harms, patient-relevant outcomes, engagement and acceptability. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Paired authors independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias using a modified checklist for observational studies and the certainty of the evidence using Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation. Data could not be pooled because of clinical and methodological heterogeneity, so we synthesised results in a structured summary of intervention effects with vote counting based on direction of effect. RESULTS: 21 observational studies were included. Interventions targeted delivery of anaesthesia (12 of 21), waste/recycling (5 of 21), unnecessary test requests (3 of 21) and energy (1 of 21). The primary intervention type was clinician education. Most (20 of 21) studies were judged at unclear or high risk of bias for at least one criterion. Most studies reported effect estimates favouring the intervention (GHG emissions 17 of 18, costs 13 of 15, effectiveness 18 of 20, harms 1 of 1 and staff acceptability 1 of 1 studies), but the evidence is very uncertain for all outcomes (downgraded predominantly for observational study design and risk of bias). No studies reported patient-relevant outcomes other than death or engagement with the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions designed to improve the delivery of healthcare that reduces GHG emissions may reduce GHG emissions and costs, reduce anaesthesia use, waste and unnecessary testing, be acceptable to staff and have little to no effect on energy use or unintended harms, but the evidence is very uncertain. Rigorous studies that measure GHG emissions using gold-standard life cycle assessment are needed as well as studies in more diverse areas of healthcare. It is also important that future interventions to reduce GHG emissions evaluate the effect on beneficial and harmful patient outcomes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022309428.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic characteristics for breast cancers in populations with digital vs film mammography indicate the transition may have increased both early detection and overdiagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: Film mammography has been replaced by digital mammography in breast screening programs globally. This led to a small increase in the rate of detection, but whether the detection of clinically important cancers increased is uncertain. We aimed to assess the impact on tumor characteristics of screen-detected and interval breast cancers. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We searched seven databases from inception to October 08, 2023, for publications comparing film and digital mammography within the same population of asymptomatic women at population (average) risk of breast cancer. We recorded reported tumor characteristics and assessed risk of bias using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions tool. We synthesized results using meta-analyses of random effects. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were included in the analysis from 8 countries, including 11,592,225 screening examinations (8,117,781 film; 3,474,444 digital). There were no differences in tumor size, morphology, grade, node status, receptor status, or stage in the pooled differences for screen-detected and interval invasive cancer tumor characteristics. There were statistically significant increases in screen-detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) across all grades: 0.05 (0.00-0.11), 0.14 (0.05-0.22), and 0.19 (0.05-0.33) per 1000 screens for low, intermediate, and high-grade DCIS, respectively. There were similar (non-statistically significant) increases in screen-detected invasive cancer across all grades. CONCLUSION: The increased detection of all grades of DCIS and invasive cancer may indicate both increased early detection of more aggressive disease and increased overdiagnosis.

Breast Cancer Stage and Size Detected with Film versus Digital Mammography in New South Wales, Australia: A Population-Based Study Using Routinely Collected Data.

BACKGROUND: Digital mammography has replaced film mammography in breast-screening programs globally, including Australia. This led to an increase in the rate of detection, but whether there was increased detection of clinically important cancers is uncertain. METHODS: In this population-wide retrospective cohort study in New South Wales, Australia spanning 2004 to 2016 and including 4,631,656 screens, there were 22,965 cancers in women screened with film (n = 11,040) or digital mammography (n = 11,925). We examined the change in tumor characteristics overall and how these rates changed over time, accounting for changes in background rates using an interrupted time-series. Comparisons were made with unscreened women (n = 26,326) during this time. RESULTS: We found increased detection of in situ cancer (3.36 per 10,000 screens), localized invasive, and smaller-sized breast cancers attributable to the change in mammography technology, whereas screen-detected intermediate-sized and metastatic breast cancers decreased. Rates of early-stage and intermediate-sized interval cancers increased, and late-stage (-1.62 per 10,000 screens) and large interval cancers decreased. In unscreened women, there were small increases in the temporal trends of cancers across all stages. CONCLUSIONS: At least some of the increased detection of smaller early-stage cancers may have translated into a reduction in larger and late-stage cancers, indicating beneficial detection of cancers that would have otherwise progressed. However, the increased detection of smaller early-stage and small cancers may also have increased over-diagnosis of lesions that would otherwise have not caused harm. IMPACT: Robust evaluation of potential benefits and harms is needed after changes to screening programs. See related In the Spotlight, p. 638.

Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines.

Guidelines for prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia recommend that men at average risk of prostate cancer who have been informed of the benefits and harms, and who decide to undergo regular testing, should be offered testing every 2 years from 50 to 69 years. This study aimed to estimate the benefits and harms of regular testing in this context. We constructed Policy1-Prostate, a discrete event microsimulation platform of the natural history of prostate cancer and prostate cancer survival, and PSA testing patterns and subsequent management in Australia. The model was calibrated to pre-PSA (before 1985) prostate cancer incidence and mortality and validated against incidence and mortality trends from 1985 to 2011 and international trials. The model predictions were concordant with trials and Australian observed incidence and mortality data from 1985 to 2011. Out of 1000 men who choose to test according to the guidelines, 36 [21-41] men will die from prostate cancer and 126 [119-133] men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer, compared with 50 [47-54] and 94 [90-98] men who do not test, respectively. During the 20 years of active PSA testing, 32.3% [25.6%-38.8%] of all PSA-test detected cancers are overdiagnosed cases that is, 30 [21-42] out of 94 [83-107] PSA-test detected cancers. Australian men choosing to test with PSA every two years from 50 to 69 will reduce their risk of ever dying from prostate cancer and incur a risk of overdiagnosis: for every man who avoids dying from prostate cancer, two will be overdiagnosed with prostate cancer between 50 and 69 years of age. Australian men, with health professionals, can use these results to inform decision-making about PSA testing.

Health benefits and harms of mammography screening in older women (75+ years)-a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on the balance between potential benefits and harms of mammography screening in women 75 years and older. The aim of this systematic review was to synthesise the evidence on the outcomes of mammography screening in women aged 75 years and older. METHODS: A systematic review of mammography screening studies in women aged 75 years and over. RESULTS: Thirty-six studies were included in this review: 27 observational studies and 9 modelling studies. Many of the included studies used no or uninformative comparison groups resulting in a potential bias towards the benefits of screening. Despite this, there was mixed evidence about the benefits and harms of continuing mammography screening beyond the age of 75 years. Some studies showed a beneficial effect on breast cancer mortality, and other studies showed no effect on mortality. Some studies showed some harms (false positive tests and recalls) being comparable to those in younger age-groups, with other studies showing increase in false positive screens and biopsies in older age-group. Although reported in fewer studies, there was consistent evidence of increased overdiagnosis in older age-groups. CONCLUSION: There is limited evidence available to make a recommendation for/against continuing breast screening beyond the age of 75 years. Future studies should use more informative comparisons and should estimate overdiagnosis given potentially substantial harm in this age-group due to competing causes of death. This review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020203131).

Women's views about current and future management of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS): A mixed-methods study.

Management of low-risk ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is controversial, with clinical trials currently assessing the safety of active monitoring amidst concern about overtreatment. Little is known about general community views regarding DCIS and its management. We aimed to explore women's understanding and views about low-risk DCIS and current and potential future management options. This mixed-method study involved qualitative focus groups and brief quantitative questionnaires. Participants were screening-aged (50-74 years) women, with diverse socioeconomic backgrounds and no personal history of breast cancer/DCIS, recruited from across metropolitan Sydney, Australia. Sessions incorporated an informative presentation interspersed with group discussions which were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Fifty-six women took part in six age-stratified focus groups. Prior awareness of DCIS was limited, however women developed reasonable understanding of DCIS and the relevant issues. Overall, women expressed substantial support for active monitoring being offered as a management approach for low-risk DCIS, and many were interested in participating in a hypothetical clinical trial. Although some women expressed concern that current management may sometimes represent overtreatment, there were mixed views about personally accepting monitoring. Women noted a number of important questions and considerations that would factor into their decision making. Our findings about women's perceptions of active monitoring for DCIS are timely while results of ongoing clinical trials of monitoring are awaited, and may inform clinicians and investigators designing future, similar trials. Exploration of offering well-informed patients the choice of non-surgical management of low-risk DCIS, even outside a clinical trial setting, may be warranted.

Environmental impact of cardiovascular healthcare.

IMPORTANCE: The healthcare sector is essential to human health and well-being, yet its significant carbon footprint contributes to climate change-related threats to health. OBJECTIVE: To review systematically published studies on environmental impacts, including carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions, of contemporary cardiovascular healthcare of all types, from prevention through to treatment. EVIDENCE REVIEW: We followed the methods of systematic review and synthesis. We conducted searches in Medline, EMBASE and Scopus for primary studies and systematic reviews measuring environmental impacts of any type of cardiovascular healthcare published in 2011 and onwards. Studies were screened, selected and data were extracted by two independent reviewers. Studies were too heterogeneous for pooling in meta-analysis and were narratively synthesised with insights derived from content analysis. FINDINGS: A total of 12 studies estimating environmental impacts, including carbon emissions (8 studies), of cardiac imaging, pacemaker monitoring, pharmaceutical prescribing and in-hospital care including cardiac surgery were found. Of these, three studies used the gold-standard method of Life Cycle Assessment. One of these found the environmental impact of echocardiography was 1%-20% that of cardiac MR (CMR) imaging and Single Photon Emission Tomography (SPECT) scanning. Many opportunities to reduce environmental impacts were identified: carbon emissions can be reduced by choosing echocardiography as the first cardiac test before considering CT or CMR, remote monitoring of pacemaker devices and teleconsultations when clinically appropriate to do so. Several interventions may be effective for reducing waste, including rinsing bypass circuitry after cardiac surgery. Cobenefits included reduced costs, health benefits such as cell salvage blood available for perfusion, and social benefits such as reduced time away from work for patients and carers. Content analysis revealed concern about the environmental impact of cardiovascular healthcare, particularly carbon emissions and a desire for change. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Cardiac imaging, pharmaceutical prescribing and in-hospital care including cardiac surgery have significant environmental impacts, including CO2e emissions which contribute to climate-related threats to human health. Importantly, many opportunities to effectively reduce environmental impacts exist within cardiac care, and can provide economic, health and social cobenefits.

Should low-risk DCIS lose the cancer label? An evidence review.

BACKGROUND: Population mammographic screening for breast cancer has led to large increases in the diagnosis and treatment of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Active surveillance has been proposed as a management strategy for low-risk DCIS to mitigate against potential overdiagnosis and overtreatment. However, clinicians and patients remain reluctant to choose active surveillance, even within a trial setting. Re-calibration of the diagnostic threshold for low-risk DCIS and/or use of a label that does not include the word 'cancer' might encourage the uptake of active surveillance and other conservative treatment options. We aimed to identify and collate relevant epidemiological evidence to inform further discussion on these ideas. METHODS: We searched PubMed and EMBASE databases for low-risk DCIS studies in four categories: (1) natural history; (2) subclinical cancer found at autopsy; (3) diagnostic reproducibility (two or more pathologist interpretations at a single time point); and (4) diagnostic drift (two or more pathologist interpretations at different time points). Where we identified a pre-existing systematic review, the search was restricted to studies published after the inclusion period of the review. Two authors screened records, extracted data, and performed risk of bias assessment. We undertook a narrative synthesis of the included evidence within each category. RESULTS: Natural History (n = 11): one systematic review and nine primary studies were included, but only five provided evidence on the prognosis of women with low-risk DCIS. These studies reported that women with low-risk DCIS had comparable outcomes whether or not they had surgery. The risk of invasive breast cancer in patients with low-risk DCIS ranged from 6.5% (7.5 years) to 10.8% (10 years). The risk of dying from breast cancer in patients with low-risk DCIS ranged from 1.2 to 2.2% (10 years). Subclinical cancer at autopsy (n = 1): one systematic review of 13 studies estimated the mean prevalence of subclinical in situ breast cancer to be 8.9%. Diagnostic reproducibility (n = 13): two systematic reviews and 11 primary studies found at most moderate agreement in differentiating low-grade DCIS from other diagnoses. Diagnostic drift: no studies found. CONCLUSION: Epidemiological evidence supports consideration of relabelling and/or recalibrating diagnostic thresholds for low-risk DCIS. Such diagnostic changes would need agreement on the definition of low-risk DCIS and improved diagnostic reproducibility.

Low-risk prostate lesions: An evidence review to inform discussion on losing the "cancer" label.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance (AS) mitigates harms from overtreatment of low-risk prostate lesions. Recalibration of diagnostic thresholds to redefine which prostate lesions are considered "cancer" and/or adopting alternative diagnostic labels could increase AS uptake and continuation. METHODS: We searched PubMed and EMBASE to October 2021 for evidence on: (1) clinical outcomes of AS, (2) subclinical prostate cancer at autopsy, (3) reproducibility of histopathological diagnosis, and (4) diagnostic drift. Evidence is presented via narrative synthesis. RESULTS: AS: one systematic review (13 studies) of men undergoing AS found that prostate cancer-specific mortality was 0%-6% at 15 years. There was eventual termination of AS and conversion to treatment in 45%-66% of men. Four additional cohort studies reported very low rates of metastasis (0%-2.1%) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (0%-0.1%) over follow-up to 15 years. Overall, AS was terminated without medical indication in 1%-9% of men. Subclinical reservoir: 1 systematic review (29 studies) estimated that the subclinical cancer prevalence was 5% at <30 years, and increased nonlinearly to 59% by >79 years. Four additional autopsy studies (mean age: 54-72 years) reported prevalences of 12%-43%. Reproducibility: 1 recent well-conducted study found high reproducibility for low-risk prostate cancer diagnosis, but this was more variable in 7 other studies. Diagnostic drift: 4 studies provided consistent evidence of diagnostic drift, with the most recent (published 2020) reporting that 66% of cases were upgraded and 3% were downgraded when using contemporary diagnostic criteria compared to original diagnoses (1985-1995). CONCLUSIONS: Evidence collated may inform discussion of diagnostic changes for low-risk prostate lesions.

The financial implications of investigating false-positive and true-positive mammograms in a national breast cancer screening program.

Objectives To determine the total annual screening and further-investigation costs of investigating false-positive and true-positive mammograms in the Australian population breast-screening program. Methods This economic analysis used aggregate-level retrospective cohort data of women screened at a breast-screening clinic. Counts and frequencies of each diagnostic workup-sequence recorded were scaled up to national figures and costed by estimating per-patient costs of procedures using screening clinic cost data. Main outcomes and measures estimated were percentage share of total annual screening and further-investigation costs for the Australian population breast-screening program of investigating false-positive and true-positive mammograms. Secondary outcomes determined were average costs of investigating each false-positive and true-positive mammogram. Sensitivity analyses involved recalculating results excluding subgroups of patients below and above the screening age range of 50-74 years. Results Of 8235 patients, the median age was 60.35 years with interquartile range of 54.17-67.17 years. A total of 15.4% (ranging from 13.4 to 15.4% under different scenarios) of total annual screening and further-investigation costs were from investigating false-positive mammograms. This exceeded the share of costs from investigating true-positives (13%). Conclusions We have developed a transparent and non-onerous approach for estimating the costs of false-positive and true-positive mammograms associated with the national breast-screening program. While determining an optimal balance between false-positives and true-positive rates must rely primarily on health outcomes, costs are an important consideration. We recommend that future research adopts and refines similar approaches to facilitate better monitoring of these costs, benchmark against estimates from other screening programs, and support optimal policy development.

Considerations for Evaluating the Introduction of New Cancer Screening Technology: Use of Interval Cancers to Assess Potential Benefits and Harms.

This framework focuses on the importance of the consideration of the downstream intermediate and long-term health outcomes when a change to a screening program is introduced. The authors present a methodology for utilising the relationship between screen-detected and interval cancer rates to infer the benefits and harms associated with a change to the program. A review of the previous use of these measures in the literature is presented. The framework presents other aspects to consider when utilizing this methodology, and builds upon an existing framework that helps researchers, clinicians, and policy makers to consider the impacts of changes to screening programs on health outcomes. It is hoped that this research will inform future evaluative studies to assess the benefits and harms of changes to screening programs.

Health, financial and environmental impacts of unnecessary vitamin D testing: a triple bottom line assessment adapted for healthcare.

OBJECTIVE: To undertake an assessment of the health, financial and environmental impacts of a well-recognised example of low-value care; inappropriate vitamin D testing. DESIGN: Combination of systematic literature search, analysis of routinely collected healthcare data and environmental analysis. SETTING: Australian healthcare system. PARTICIPANTS: Population of Australia. OUTCOME MEASURES: We took a sustainability approach, measuring the health, financial and environmental impacts of a specific healthcare activity. Unnecessary vitamin D testing rates were estimated from best available published literature; by definition, these provide no gain in health outcomes (in contrast to appropriate/necessary tests). Australian population-based test numbers and healthcare costs were obtained from Medicare for vitamin D pathology services. Carbon emissions in kg CO2e were estimated using data from our previous study of the carbon footprint of common pathology tests. We distinguished between tests ordered as the primary test and those ordered as an add-on to other tests, as many may be done in conjunction with other tests. We conducted base case (8% being the primary reason for the blood test) and sensitivity (12% primary test) analyses. RESULTS: There were a total of 4 457 657 Medicare-funded vitamin D tests in 2020, on average one test for every six Australians, an 11.8% increase from the mean 2018-2019 total. From our literature review, 76.5% of Australia's vitamin D tests provide no net health benefit, equating to 3 410 108 unnecessary tests in 2020. Total costs of unnecessary tests to Medicare amounted to >$A87 000 000. The 2020 carbon footprint of unnecessary vitamin D tests was 28 576 kg (base case) and 42 012 kg (sensitivity) CO2e, equivalent to driving ~160 000-230 000 km in a standard passenger car. CONCLUSIONS: Unnecessary vitamin D testing contributes to avoidable CO2e emissions and healthcare costs. While the footprint of this example is relatively small, the potential to realise environmental cobenefits by reducing low-value care more broadly is significant.

Effects of awareness of breast cancer overdiagnosis among women with screen-detected or incidentally found breast cancer: a qualitative interview study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore experiences of women who identified themselves as having a possible breast cancer overdiagnosis. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study using key components of a grounded theory analysis. SETTING: International interviews with women diagnosed with breast cancer and aware of the concept of overdiagnosis. PARTICIPANTS: Twelve women aged 48-77 years from the UK (6), USA (4), Canada (1) and Australia (1) who had breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ n=9, (invasive) breast cancer n=3) diagnosed between 2004 and 2019, and who were aware of the possibility of overdiagnosis. Participants were recruited via online blogs and professional clinical networks. RESULTS: Most women (10/12) became aware of overdiagnosis after their own diagnosis. All were concerned about the possibility of overdiagnosis or overtreatment or both. Finding out about overdiagnosis/overtreatment had negative psychosocial impacts on women's sense of self, quality of interactions with medical professionals, and for some, had triggered deep remorse about past decisions and actions. Many were uncomfortable with being treated as a cancer patient when they did not feel 'diseased'. For most, the recommended treatments seemed excessive compared with the diagnosis given. Most found that their initial clinical teams were not forthcoming about the possibility of overdiagnosis and overtreatment, and many found it difficult to deal with their set management protocols. CONCLUSION: The experiences of this small and unusual group of women provide rare insight into the profound negative impact of finding out about overdiagnosis after breast cancer diagnosis. Previous studies have found that women valued information about overdiagnosis before screening and this knowledge did not reduce subsequent screening uptake. Policymakers and clinicians should recognise the diversity of women's perspectives and ensure that women are adequately informed of the possibility of overdiagnosis before screening.

A novel methodological framework was described for detecting and quantifying overdiagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: Methods to quantify overdiagnosis of screen detected cancer have been developed, but methods for quantifying overdiagnosis of noncancer conditions (whether symptomatic or asymptomatic) have been lacking. We aimed to develop a methodological framework for quantifying overdiagnosis that may be used for asymptomatic or symptomatic conditions and used gestational diabetes mellitus as an example of how it may be applied. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We identify two earlier definitions for overdiagnosis, a narrower prognosis-based definition and a wider utility-based definition. Building on the central importance of the concepts of prognostic information and clinical utility of a diagnosis, we consider the following questions: within a target population, do people found to have a disease using one diagnostic strategy but found not to have the disease using another diagnostic strategy (so called 'additional diagnoses'), have an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes without treatment (prognosis evidence), and/or a decreased risk of adverse outcomes with treatment (utility evidence)? RESULTS: Using Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs and fair umpires, we illuminate the relationships between diagnostics strategies and the frequency of overdiagnosis. We then use the example of gestational diabetes mellitus to demonstrate how the Fair Umpire framework may be applied to estimate overdiagnosis. CONCLUSION: Our framework may be used to quantify overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions (and in cancer conditions) and to guide further studies on this topic.

Preferences for More or Less Health Care and Association With Health Literacy of Men Eligible for Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening in Australia.

Importance: Understanding personal factors that influence diverse responses to health care information, such as preferences for more or less health care, might be beneficial to more effective communication and better involvement in health care choices. Objective: To determine whether individuals' preferences for more or less health care are associated with informed choice and understanding of overdiagnosis in routine prostate cancer screening and to examine associations among preferences, educational status, and health literacy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study included a community-based sample of men in Australia aged 45 to 60 years eligible for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, recruited via an international social research company. Survey data were collected online from June 27 to July 26, 2018. Data were analyzed in April 2020. Exposures: Participants were randomized to 1 of 2 versions of an online decision aid (full-length or abbreviated) about PSA screening and completed an online survey that included a measure of preference for more or less health care, the Medical Maximizer-Minimizer Scale (MMS), in which higher score indicates preference for more health care. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was informed choice; knowledge, attitudes, and intentions about screening for prostate cancer were also measured. Results: Of 3722 participants who began the survey, 2993 (80.4%) completed it (mean [SD] age, 52.15 [6.65] years). Stronger preferences for more heath care were observed in those without tertiary education (mean difference, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.09-0.22; P < .001) and with inadequate health literacy (mean difference, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.09-0.22; P < .001). After controlling for health and demographic variables, a 1-unit increase in MMS score was associated with reduced relative risk (RR) of making an informed choice (RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82; P < .001) and of having adequate conceptual knowledge (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.84-0.90; P < .001), correct numerical knowledge (RR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.97; P = .001), and correct understanding of overdiagnosis (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.90; P < .001). A 1-unit increase in MMS score was associated with a more positive attitude toward screening (RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.15-1.21; P < .001) and more positive intention to screen (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.16-1.25; P < .001) after adjusting for control variables. Conclusions and Relevance: This survey study examined associations between preferences for more or less health care and knowledge about overdiagnosis and informed choice among men in Australia. These results may motivate clinicians to elicit individual patient preferences to facilitate tailored discussions with patients about low-value care, such as prostate cancer screening, for which benefit is uncertain.

Rethinking Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancers < 1cm (Papillary Microcarcinomas): An Evidence Review for Recalibrating Diagnostic Thresholds and/or Alternative Labels.

Background: Recalibrating diagnostic thresholds or using alternative labels may mitigate overdiagnosis and overtreatment of papillary microcarcinoma (mPTC). We aimed at identifying and collating relevant epidemiological evidence on mPTC, to assess the case for recalibration and/or new labels. Methods: We searched EMBASE and PubMed databases from inception to December 2020 for natural history, autopsy, diagnostic drift, and diagnostic reproducibility studies. Where a relevant systematic review was pre-identified, only new articles were additionally included. Non-English articles were excluded. One author screened titles and abstracts. Two authors screened full text articles, performed quality assessments, and extracted data. We undertook narrative synthesis of included evidence (pooled estimates from systematic reviews and single estimates from primary studies). Results: One systematic review of patients undergoing active surveillance found that after 5 years of follow-up, 5.3% (95% confidence interval [CI 4.4-6.4%]) of the mPTC lesions had increased in size by ≥3 mm, and 1.6% [CI 1.1-2.4%] of patients had lymph node metastases. Among 7 new primary studies (including 3 updates on 2 studies included in the systematic review), 1-5% of patients undergoing active surveillance had lymph node metastases after a median follow-up of 1-10 years. One systematic review found that subclinical thyroid cancer incidentally discovered at autopsy is relatively common, with a pooled prevalence of 11.2% [CI 6.7-16.1%] among studies that examined the whole thyroid. Four diagnostic drift studies evaluated the new classification of non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP). Three studies of cases previously diagnosed as papillary thyroid cancer found 1.3-2.3% were reclassified as NIFTP (reclassifications were from follicular variation of papillary thyroid cancer [FVPTC]). One study of 48 cases previously diagnosed as mPTC found that 23.5% were reclassified as NIFTP. Thirteen reproducibility studies of papillary thyroid lesions found substantial variation in the histopathological diagnosis of thyroid lesions, including FVPTC and NIFTP classifications (no study evaluated mPTC). Conclusions: This review supports consideration of recalibrating diagnostic thresholds and/or alternative labels for low-risk mPTC.

The management of women with ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast in Australia and New Zealand between 2007 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) continues to increase and now accounts for 14% of all breast cancer, and 20%-25% of screen-detected cases. Treatment trends of DCIS are important in order to inform the ongoing debate about possible overdiagnosis and overtreatment, but have not been investigated for over a decade in Australia and New Zealand. Against this background, we aimed to describe the temporal trends in management of DCIS in Australian and New Zealander women. METHODS: Using the BreastSurgANZ Quality Audit (BQA) database, we conducted a descriptive study of the trends of management of DCIS in Australia and New Zealand from 2007 to 2016. We assessed the frequency of surgical treatments, adjuvant therapies, and axillary surgery conducted in women with pure DCIS. RESULTS: There were 17 883 cases of pure DCIS in 2007-2016 in Australia and New Zealand recorded in the BQA database. The treatment patterns were consistent with no changes over time. The most common surgical treatment was breast-conserving surgery (66%), followed by mastectomy (37%), and 36% of women with DCIS received sentinel node biopsy (SNB). CONCLUSION: The clinical management of women diagnosed with DCIS in Australia and New Zealand, appears stable over time. A substantial proportion of women with DCIS receive SNB and this aspect of surgical care warrants further exploration to determine whether it represents appropriate care. These results, alongside the outcomes of the ongoing clinical trials on the management of DCIS, will help inform if any changes to best practice treatment are required.