Associations of Testosterone and Related Hormones With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Men : Individual Participant Data Meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Whether circulating sex hormones modulate mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in aging men is controversial. PURPOSE: To clarify associations of sex hormones with these outcomes. DATA SOURCES: Systematic literature review to July 2019, with bridge searches to March 2024. STUDY SELECTION: Prospective cohort studies of community-dwelling men with sex steroids measured using mass spectrometry and at least 5 years of follow-up. DATA EXTRACTION: Independent variables were testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), luteinizing hormone (LH), dihydrotestosterone (DHT), and estradiol concentrations. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, CVD death, and incident CVD events. Covariates included age, body mass index, marital status, alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, hypertension, diabetes, creatinine concentration, ratio of total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid medication use. DATA SYNTHESIS: Nine studies provided individual participant data (IPD) (255 830 participant-years). Eleven studies provided summary estimates (n = 24 109). Two-stage random-effects IPD meta-analyses found that men with baseline testosterone concentrations below 7.4 nmol/L (<213 ng/dL), LH concentrations above 10 IU/L, or estradiol concentrations below 5.1 pmol/L had higher all-cause mortality, and those with testosterone concentrations below 5.3 nmol/L (<153 ng/dL) had higher CVD mortality risk. Lower SHBG concentration was associated with lower all-cause mortality (median for quintile 1 [Q1] vs. Q5, 20.6 vs. 68.3 nmol/L; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.85 [95% CI, 0.77 to 0.95]) and lower CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 0.81 [CI, 0.65 to 1.00]). Men with lower baseline DHT concentrations had higher risk for all-cause mortality (median for Q1 vs. Q5, 0.69 vs. 2.45 nmol/L; adjusted HR, 1.19 [CI, 1.08 to 1.30]) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 1.29 [CI, 1.03 to 1.61]), and risk also increased with DHT concentrations above 2.45 nmol/L. Men with DHT concentrations below 0.59 nmol/L had increased risk for incident CVD events. LIMITATIONS: Observational study design, heterogeneity among studies, and imputation of missing data. CONCLUSION: Men with low testosterone, high LH, or very low estradiol concentrations had increased all-cause mortality. SHBG concentration was positively associated and DHT concentration was nonlinearly associated with all-cause and CVD mortality. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Medical Research Future Fund, Government of Western Australia, and Lawley Pharmaceuticals. (PROSPERO: CRD42019139668).

The optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function defined by the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reference intervals of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) are statistically defined by the 2·5-97·5th percentiles, without accounting for potential risk of clinical outcomes. We aimed to define the optimal healthy ranges of TSH and FT4 based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. METHODS: This systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis identified eligible prospective cohorts through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration, supplemented with a systematic search via Embase, MEDLINE (Ovid), Web of science, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 2011, to Feb 12, 2017 with an updated search to Oct 13, 2022 (cohorts found in the second search were not included in the IPD). We included cohorts that collected TSH or FT4, and cardiovascular outcomes or mortality for adults (aged ≥18 years). We excluded cohorts that included solely pregnant women, individuals with overt thyroid diseases, and individuals with cardiovascular disease. We contacted the study investigators of eligible cohorts to provide IPD on demographics, TSH, FT4, thyroid peroxidase antibodies, history of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, medication use, cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was a composite outcome including cardiovascular disease events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were the separate assessment of cardiovascular disease events, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality. We performed one-step (cohort-stratified Cox models) and two-step (random-effects models) meta-analyses adjusting for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017057576. FINDINGS: We identified 3935 studies, of which 53 cohorts fulfilled the inclusion criteria and 26 cohorts agreed to participate. We included IPD on 134 346 participants with a median age of 59 years (range 18-106) at baseline. There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with the composite outcome and secondary outcomes, with the 20th (median 13·5 pmol/L [IQR 11·2-13·9]) to 40th percentiles (median 14·8 pmol/L [12·3-15·0]) conveying the lowest risk. Compared with the 20-40th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for FT4 in the 80-100th percentiles was 1·20 (95% CI 1·11-1·31) for the composite outcome, 1·34 (1·20-1·49) for all-cause mortality, 1·57 (1·31-1·89) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 1·22 (1·11-1·33) for cardiovascular disease events. In individuals aged 70 years and older, the 10-year absolute risk of composite outcome increased over 5% for women with FT4 greater than the 85th percentile (median 17·6 pmol/L [IQR 15·0-18·3]), and men with FT4 greater than the 75th percentile (16·7 pmol/L [14·0-17·4]). Non-linear associations were identified for TSH, with the 60th (median 1·90 mIU/L [IQR 1·68-2·25]) to 80th percentiles (2·90 mIU/L [2·41-3·32]) associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Compared with the 60-80th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of TSH in the 0-20th percentiles was 1·07 (95% CI 1·02-1·12) for the composite outcome, 1·09 (1·05-1·14) for all-cause mortality, and 1·07 (0·99-1·16) for cardiovascular disease mortality. INTERPRETATION: There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Low concentrations of TSH were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The 20-40th percentiles of FT4 and the 60-80th percentiles of TSH could represent the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, with more than 5% increase of 10-year composite risk identified for FT4 greater than the 85th percentile in women and men older than 70 years. We propose a feasible approach to establish the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function, allowing for better identification of individuals with a higher risk of thyroid-related outcomes. FUNDING: None.

Factors Associated With Circulating Sex Hormones in Men : Individual Participant Data Meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Various factors modulate circulating testosterone in men, affecting interpretation of testosterone measurements. PURPOSE: To clarify factors associated with variations in sex hormone concentrations. DATA SOURCES: Systematic literature searches (to July 2019). STUDY SELECTION: Prospective cohort studies of community-dwelling men with total testosterone measured using mass spectrometry. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual participant data (IPD) (9 studies; n = 21 074) and aggregate data (2 studies; n = 4075). Sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health factors and concentrations of total testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), luteinizing hormone (LH), dihydrotestosterone, and estradiol were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS: Two-stage random-effects IPD meta-analyses found a nonlinear association of testosterone with age, with negligible change among men aged 17 to 70 years (change per SD increase about the midpoint, -0.27 nmol/L [-7.8 ng/dL] [CI, -0.71 to 0.18 nmol/L {-20.5 to 5.2 ng/dL}]) and decreasing testosterone levels with age for men older than 70 years (-1.55 nmol/L [-44.7 ng/dL] [CI, -2.05 to -1.06 nmol/L {-59.1 to -30.6 ng/dL}]). Testosterone was inversely associated with body mass index (BMI) (change per SD increase, -2.42 nmol/L [-69.7 ng/dL] [CI, -2.70 to -2.13 nmol/L {-77.8 to -61.4 ng/dL}]). Testosterone concentrations were lower for men who were married (mean difference, -0.57 nmol/L [-16.4 ng/dL] [CI, -0.89 to -0.26 nmol/L {-25.6 to -7.5 ng/dL}]); undertook at most 75 minutes of vigorous physical activity per week (-0.51 nmol/L [-14.7 ng/dL] [CI, -0.90 to -0.13 nmol/L {-25.9 to -3.7 ng/dL}]); were former smokers (-0.34 nmol/L [-9.8 ng/dL] [CI, -0.55 to -0.12 nmol/L {-15.9 to -3.5 ng/dL}]); or had hypertension (-0.53 nmol/L [-15.3 ng/dL] [CI, -0.82 to -0.24 nmol/L {-23.6 to -6.9 ng/dL}]), cardiovascular disease (-0.35 nmol/L [-10.1 ng/dL] [CI, -0.55 to -0.15 nmol/L {-15.9 to -4.3 ng/dL}]), cancer (-1.39 nmol/L [-40.1 ng/dL] [CI, -1.79 to -0.99 nmol/L {-51.6 to -28.5 ng/dL}]), or diabetes (-1.43 nmol/L [-41.2 ng/dL] [CI, -1.65 to -1.22 nmol/L {-47.6 to -35.2 ng/dL}]). Sex hormone-binding globulin was directly associated with age and inversely associated with BMI. Luteinizing hormone was directly associated with age in men older than 70 years. LIMITATION: Cross-sectional analysis, heterogeneity between studies and in timing of blood sampling, and imputation for missing data. CONCLUSION: Multiple factors are associated with variation in male testosterone, SHBG, and LH concentrations. Reduced testosterone and increased LH concentrations may indicate impaired testicular function after age 70 years. Interpretation of individual testosterone measurements should account particularly for age older than 70 years, obesity, diabetes, and cancer. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Medical Research Future Fund, Government of Western Australia, and Lawley Pharmaceuticals. (PROSPERO: CRD42019139668).

Protocol for a randomized controlled trial comparing a very low-carbohydrate diet or moderate-carbohydrate plate-method diet for type 2 diabetes: the LEGEND (Lifestyle Education about Nutrition for Diabetes) trial.

BACKGROUND: Optimal carbohydrate intake is an important and controversial area in the nutritional management of type 2 diabetes. Some evidence indicates that reducing overall carbohydrate intake with a low- or very low-carbohydrate eating plan can improve glycemic control compared to following eating plans that involve greater carbohydrate intake. However, critical knowledge gaps currently prevent clear recommendations about carbohydrate intake levels. METHODS: The LEGEND (Lifestyle Education about Nutrition for Diabetes) Trial aims to compare a very low-carbohydrate diet to a moderate-carbohydrate plate-method diet for glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes. This two-site trial plans to recruit 180 adults with type 2 diabetes. We will randomize participants to either a 20-session group-based diet and lifestyle intervention that teaches either a very low-carbohydrate diet or a moderate-carbohydrate plate-method diet. We will assess participants at study entry and 4 and 12 months later. The primary outcome is HbA1c, and secondary outcomes include inflammation (high sensitivity C-reactive protein), body weight, changes in diabetes medications, lipids (small particle LDL, HDL, triglycerides), skeletal metabolism (bone mineral density from dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and bone turnover markers serum procollagen type I N propeptide and serum C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen), and body composition (percent body fat, percent lean body mass). DISCUSSION: The LEGEND trial is a randomized controlled trial to assess optimal carbohydrate intake in type 2 diabetes by evaluating the effects of a very low-carbohydrate diet vs. a moderate-carbohydrate plate-method diet over a year-long period. The research addresses important gaps in the evidence base for the nutritional management of type 2 diabetes by providing data on potential benefits and adverse effects of different levels of carbohydrate intake. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05237128. Registered on February 11, 2022.

Changes in Bone Density in Carriers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 Pathogenic Variants After Salpingo-Oophorectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) on change in bone mineral density (BMD) in women aged 34-50 years with pathogenic variants in BRCA1 or BRCA2 ( BRCA1 /2). METHODS: The PROSper (Prospective Research of Outcomes after Salpingo-oophorectomy) study is a prospective cohort of women aged 34-50 years with BRCA1 or two germline pathogenic variants that compares health outcomes after RRSO to a non-RRSO control group with ovarian conservation. Women aged 34-50 years, who were planning either RRSO or ovarian conservation, were enrolled for 3 years of follow-up. Spine and total hip BMD were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans obtained at baseline before RRSO or at the time of enrollment for the non-RRSO group, and then at 1 and 3 years of study follow-up. Differences in BMD between the RRSO and non-RRSO groups, as well as the association between hormone use and BMD, were determined by using mixed effects multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: Of 100 PROSper participants, 91 obtained DXA scans (RRSO group: 40; non-RRSO group: 51). Overall, total spine, and hip BMD decreased significantly from baseline to 12 months after RRSO (estimated percent change -3.78%, 95% CI -6.13% to -1.43% for total spine; -2.96%, 95% CI -4.79% to -1.14% for total hip) and at 36 months (estimated percent change -5.71%, 95% CI -8.64% to -2.77% for total spine; -5.19%, 95% CI -7.50% to -2.87% for total hip. In contrast, total spine and hip BMD were not significantly different from baseline for the non-RRSO group. The differences in mean percent change in BMD from baseline between the RRSO and non-RRSO groups were statistically significant at both 12 and 36 months for spine BMD (12-month difference -4.49%, 95% CI -7.67% to -1.31%; 36-month difference -7.06%, 95% CI -11.01% to -3.11%) and at 36 months for total hip BMD (12-month difference -1.83%, 95% CI -4.23% to 0.56%; 36-month difference -5.14%, 95% CI -8.11% to -2.16%). Across the study periods, hormone use was associated with significantly less bone loss at both the spine and hip within the RRSO group compared with no hormone use ( P <.001 at both 12 months and 36 months) but did not completely prevent bone loss (estimated percent change from baseline at 36 months -2.79%, 95% CI -5.08% to -0.51% for total spine BMD; -3.93%, 95% CI -7.27% to -0.59% for total hip BMD). CONCLUSION: Women with pathogenic variants in BRCA1 /2 who undergo RRSO before the age of 50 years have greater bone loss after surgery that is clinically significant when compared with those who retain their ovaries. Hormone use mitigates, but does not eliminate, bone loss after RRSO. These results suggest that women who undergo RRSO may benefit from routine screening for BMD changes to identify opportunities for prevention and treatment of bone loss. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT01948609.

Lipid-Lowering Trials Are Not Representative of Patients Managed in Clinical Practice: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Exclusion Criteria.

Background Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) might not be representative of the real-world population because of unreasonable exclusion criteria. We sought to determine which groups of patients are excluded from RCTs that included lipid-lowering therapy. Methods and Results We retrieved all trials from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists Collaboration and systematically searched for large (≥1000 participants) lipid-lowering therapy RCTs, defined as statins, ezetimibe, and PCSK9 inhibitors. We predefined groups: older adults (>70 or >75 years), women, non-Whites, chronic kidney failure, heart failure, immunosuppression, cancer, dementia, treated thyroid disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental illness, atrial fibrillation, multimorbidity (≥2 chronic diseases), and polypharmacy. We counted the number of RCTs excluding patients of the predefined groups and meta-analyzed the prevalence of included patients to obtain pooled estimates with a random-effects model. We included 42 RCTs (298 605 patients). Eighty-one percent of trials excluded patients with severe and 76% those with moderate kidney failure. Seventy-one percent of trials excluded groups of women, 64% excluded patients with moderate to severe heart failure, 64% those with immunosuppressant conditions, 48% those with cancer, 29% those with dementia, and 29% of trials excluded older adults. The pooled prevalence for patients >70 years of age was 25% (95% CI, 0%-49%), 11% (3%-18%) for >75 years of age, and 51% (38%-63%) for multimorbidity. Conclusions The majority of lipid-lowering therapy trials excluded patients with common diseases, such as moderate-to-severe kidney disease or heart failure or with immunosuppression. Underrepresenting certain populations, including women and older adults, might lead to limited transportability of study results and uncertainty on possible side-effects and efficacy in these groups. Future trials should promote diversity in the recruitment strategies and improve equity in cardiovascular research. Registration URL: ClinicalTrials.gov; Unique Identifier: CRD42021253909.

Circulating IL-10 is associated with reduced risk of prostate cancer in a prospective cohort of elderly men: the MrOS Study.

PURPOSE: Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in men, resulting in a large cancer burden given a relatively higher 5-year survival rate of patients after cancer diagnosis. The underlying etiology of prostate cancer is not well understood. Chronic inflammation plays a significant role in carcinogenesis overall and may be involved in the development of PCa, but immune-related biomarker studies in prostate cancer are limited. METHODS: The associations of serum concentrations of cytokines, systemic immune biomarkers, with risk of PCa were assessed in a randomly selected sub-cohort (n = 798, mean age = 73 years) of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study, a prospective cohort of older men. At baseline, we measured serum interleukin (IL)-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα), soluble receptors (SR) of IL-6 (IL-6SR) and TNF (TNFαSR1 and TNFαSR2), and IL-10. The risk of PCa was calculated for higher tertile levels of measured individual cytokines relative to the lowest tertile using Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: After an average 6 years of follow-up, 59 men developed incident PCa. Men in the middle or highest tertile of IL-10 had a statistically significant 50% lower risk of PCa compared to the lowest tertile (hazard ratio = 0.50, 95% confidence interval = 0.30-0.84). There was no significant association between any of the other cytokines measured and PCa risk. CONCLUSION: IL-10, an anti-inflammatory cytokine, was associated with lower risk of PCa. Further research of IL-10 and inflammation in relation to PCa development is warranted.

Diabetes Mellitus and the Benefit of Antiresorptive Therapy on Fracture Risk.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with increased risk of fractures. However, it is unclear whether current osteoporosis treatments reduce fractures in individuals with diabetes. The aim of the study was to determine whether presence of T2D influences the efficacy of antiresorptive treatment for osteoporosis using the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH)-American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR)-Study to Advance Bone Mineral Density (BMD) as a Regulatory Endpoint (SABRE) cohort, which includes individual patient data from randomized trials of osteoporosis therapies. In this study we included 96,385 subjects, 6.8% of whom had T2D, from nine bisphosphonate trials, two selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) trials, two trials of menopausal hormone therapy, one denosumab trial, and one odanacatib trial. We used Cox regression to obtain the treatment hazard ratio (HR) for incident nonvertebral, hip, and all fractures and logistic regression to obtain the treatment odds ratio (OR) for incident morphometric vertebral fractures, separately for T2D and non-DM. We used linear regression to estimate the effect of treatment on 2-year change in BMD (n = 49,099) and 3-month to 12-month change in bone turnover markers (n = 12,701) by diabetes status. In all analyses, we assessed the interaction between treatment and diabetes status. In pooled analyses of all 15 trials, we found that diabetes did not impact treatment efficacy, with similar reductions in vertebral, nonvertebral, all, and hip fractures, increases in total hip and femoral neck BMD, and reductions in serum C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide (CTX), urinary N-telopeptide of type I collagen/creatinine (NTX/Cr) and procollagen type 1 N propeptide (P1NP) (all interactions p > 0.05). We found similar results for the pooled analysis of bisphosphonate trials. However, when we considered trials individually, we found a few interactions within individual studies between diabetes status and the effects of denosumab and odanacatib on fracture risk, change in BMD or bone turnover markers (BTMs). In sum, these results provide strong evidence that bisphosphonates and most licensed antiresorptive drugs are effective at reducing fracture risk and increasing BMD irrespective of diabetes status. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Development and validation of a new prognostic index for mortality risk in multimorbid adults.

CONTEXT: Multimorbidity is highly prevalent among older adults and associated with a high mortality. Prediction of mortality in multimorbid people would be clinically useful but there is no mortality risk index designed for this population. Our objective was therefore to develop and internally validate a 1-year mortality prognostic index for older multimorbid adults. METHODS: We analysed data of the OPERAM cohort study in Bern, Switzerland, including 822 adults aged 70 years or more with multimorbidity (3 or more chronic medical conditions) and polypharmacy (use of 5 drugs or more for >30 days). Time to all-cause mortality was assessed up to 1 year of follow-up. We performed a parametric Weibull regression model with backward stepwise selection to identify mortality risk predictors. The model was internally validated and optimism corrected using bootstrapping techniques. We derived a point-based risk score from the regression coefficients. Calibration and discrimination were assessed by the calibration slope and C statistic. RESULTS: 805 participants were included in the analysis. During 1-year of follow-up, 158 participants (20%) had died. Age, Charlson-Comorbidity-Index, number of drugs, body mass index, number of hospitalizations, Barthel-Index (functional impairment), and nursing home residency were predictors of 1-year mortality in a multivariable model. Using these variables, the 1-year probability of dying could be predicted with an optimism-corrected C statistic of 0.70. The optimism-corrected calibration slope was 0.93. Based on the derived point-based risk score to predict mortality risk, 7% of the patients classified at low-risk of mortality, 19% at moderate-risk, and 37% at high-risk died after one year of follow-up. A simpler mortality score, without the Charlson-Comorbidity-Index and Barthel-Index, showed reduced discriminative power (optimism-corrected C statistic: 0.59) compared to the full score. CONCLUSION: We developed and internally validated a mortality risk index including for the first-time specific predictors for multimorbid adults. This new 1-year mortality prediction point-based score allowed to classify multimorbid older patients into three categories of increasing risk of mortality. Further validation of the score among various populations of multimorbid patients is needed before its implementation into practice.

Supplemental Vitamin D and Incident Fractures in Midlife and Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D supplements are widely recommended for bone health in the general population, but data on whether they prevent fractures have been inconsistent. METHODS: In an ancillary study of the Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial (VITAL), we tested whether supplemental vitamin D3 would result in a lower risk of fractures than placebo. VITAL was a two-by-two factorial, randomized, controlled trial that investigated whether supplemental vitamin D3 (2000 IU per day), n-3 fatty acids (1 g per day), or both would prevent cancer and cardiovascular disease in men 50 years of age or older and women 55 years of age or older in the United States. Participants were not recruited on the basis of vitamin D deficiency, low bone mass, or osteoporosis. Incident fractures were reported by participants on annual questionnaires and adjudicated by centralized medical-record review. The primary end points were incident total, nonvertebral, and hip fractures. Proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the treatment effect in intention-to-treat analyses. RESULTS: Among 25,871 participants (50.6% women [13,085 of 25,871] and 20.2% Black [5106 of 25,304]), we confirmed 1991 incident fractures in 1551 participants over a median follow-up of 5.3 years. Supplemental vitamin D3, as compared with placebo, did not have a significant effect on total fractures (which occurred in 769 of 12,927 participants in the vitamin D group and in 782 of 12,944 participants in the placebo group; hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89 to 1.08; P = 0.70), nonvertebral fractures (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.07; P = 0.50), or hip fractures (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.70 to 1.47; P = 0.96). There was no modification of the treatment effect according to baseline characteristics, including age, sex, race or ethnic group, body-mass index, or serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels. There were no substantial between-group differences in adverse events as assessed in the parent trial. CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D3 supplementation did not result in a significantly lower risk of fractures than placebo among generally healthy midlife and older adults who were not selected for vitamin D deficiency, low bone mass, or osteoporosis. (Funded by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases; VITAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01704859.).

Comparison of 6 Mortality Risk Scores for Prediction of 1-Year Mortality Risk in Older Adults With Multimorbidity.

Importance: The most appropriate therapy for older adults with multimorbidity may depend on life expectancy (ie, mortality risk), and several scores have been developed to predict 1-year mortality risk. However, often, these mortality risk scores have not been externally validated in large sample sizes, and a head-to-head comparison in a prospective contemporary cohort is lacking. Objective: To prospectively compare the performance of 6 scores in predicting the 1-year mortality risk in hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study analyzed data of participants in the OPERAM (Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People) trial, which was conducted between December 1, 2016, and October 31, 2018, in surgical and nonsurgical departments of 4 university-based hospitals in Louvain, Belgium; Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cork, Republic of Ireland; and Bern, Switzerland. Eligible participants in the OPERAM trial had multimorbidity (≥3 coexisting chronic diseases), were aged 70 years or older, had polypharmacy (≥5 long-term medications), and were admitted to a participating ward. Data were analyzed from April 1 to September 30, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome of interest was any-cause death occurring in the first year of inclusion in the OPERAM trial. Overall performance, discrimination, and calibration of the following 6 scores were assessed: Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons, CARING (Cancer, Admissions ≥2, Residence in a nursing home, Intensive care unit admit with multiorgan failure, ≥2 Noncancer hospice guidelines) Criteria, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Gagné Index, Levine Index, and Walter Index. These scores were assessed using the following measures: Brier score (0 indicates perfect overall performance and 0.25 indicates a noninformative model); C-statistic and 95% CI; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots; and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Results: The 1879 patients in the study had a median (IQR) age of 79 (74-84) years and 835 were women (44.4%). The median (IQR) number of chronic diseases was 11 (8-16). Within 1 year, 375 participants (20.0%) died. Brier scores ranged from 0.16 (Gagné Index) to 0.24 (Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons). C-statistic values ranged from 0.62 (95% CI, 0.59-0.65) for Charlson Comorbidity Index to 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for the Walter Index. Calibration was good for the Gagné Index and moderate for other mortality risk scores. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this prognostic study suggest that all 6 of the 1-year mortality risk scores examined had moderate prognostic performance, discriminatory power, and calibration in a large cohort of hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. Overall, none of these mortality risk scores outperformed the others, and thus none could be recommended for use in daily clinical practice.

Validation of the Surrogate Threshold Effect for Change in Bone Mineral Density as a Surrogate Endpoint for Fracture Outcomes: The FNIH-ASBMR SABRE Project.

The surrogate threshold effect (STE) is defined as the minimum treatment effect on a surrogate that is reliably predictive of a treatment effect on the clinical outcome. It provides a framework for implementing a clinical trial with a surrogate endpoint. The aim of this study was to update our previous analysis by validating the STE for change in total hip (TH) BMD as a surrogate for fracture risk reduction; the novelty of this study was this validation. To do so, we used individual patient data from 61,415 participants in 16 RCTs that evaluated bisphosphonates (nine trials), selective estrogen receptor modulators (four trials), denosumab (one trial), odanacatib (one trial), and teriparatide (one trial) to estimate trial-specific treatment effects on TH BMD and all, vertebral, hip, and nonvertebral fractures. We then conducted a random effects meta-regression of the log relative fracture risk reduction against 24-month change in TH BMD, and computed the STE as the intersection of the upper 95% prediction limit of this regression with the line of no fracture reduction. We validated the STE by checking whether the number of fractures in each trial provided 80% power and determining what proportion of trials with BMD changes ≥ STE reported significant reductions in fracture risk. We applied this analysis to (i) the trials on which we estimated the STE; and (ii) trials on which we did not estimate the STE. We found that the STEs for all, vertebral, hip, and nonvertebral fractures were 1.83%, 1.42%, 3.18%, and 2.13%, respectively. Among trials used to estimate STE, 27 of 28 were adequately powered, showed BMD effects exceeding the STE, and showed significant reductions in fracture risk. Among the validation set of 11 trials, 10 met these criteria. Thus STE differs by fracture type and has been validated in trials not used to develop the approach. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Effects of long-term testosterone treatment on cardiovascular outcomes in men with hypogonadism: Rationale and design of the TRAVERSE study.

BACKGROUND: Testosterone exerts some effects on the cardiovascular system that could be considered beneficial; some other effects may potentially increase the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. Neither the long-term efficacy nor safety of testosterone treatment has been studied in an adequately-powered randomized trial. METHODS: The Testosterone Replacement therapy for Assessment of long-term Vascular Events and efficacy ResponSE in hypogonadal men (TRAVERSE) study is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group, non-inferiority, multicenter study. Eligible participants are men, 45 to 80 years, with serum testosterone concentration <300 ng/dL and hypogonadal symptoms, who have evidence pre-existing CV disease or increased risk of CV disease. Approximately 6,000 subjects will be randomized to either 1.62% transdermal testosterone gel or a matching placebo gel daily for an anticipated duration of up to 5 years. The primary outcome is CV safety defined by the major adverse CV event composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death due to CV causes. The trial will continue until at least 256 adjudicated major adverse CV event endpoints have occurred to assess whether the 95% (2-sided) upper confidence limit for a hazard ratio of 1.5 can be ruled out. Secondary endpoints include prostate safety defined as the incidence of adjudicated high grade prostate cancer and efficacy in domains of sexual function, bone fractures, depression, anemia, and diabetes. RESULTS: As of July 1, 2021, 5,076 subjects had been randomized. CONCLUSIONS: The TRAVERSE study will determine the CV safety and long-term efficacy of testosterone treatment in middle-aged and older men with hypogonadism with or at increased risk of CV disease.

Development and validation of a life expectancy estimator for multimorbid older adults: a cohort study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Older multimorbid adults have a high risk of mortality and a short life expectancy (LE). Providing high-value care and avoiding care overuse, including of preventive care, is a serious challenge among multimorbid patients. While guidelines recommend to tailor preventive care according to the estimated LE, there is no tool to estimate LE in this specific population. Our objective is therefore to develop an LE estimator for older multimorbid adults by transforming a mortality prognostic index, which will be developed and internally validated in a prospective cohort. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will analyse data of the Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People cohort study in Bern, Switzerland. 822 participants were included at hospitalisation with age of 70 years or older, multimorbidity (three or more chronic medical conditions) and polypharmacy (use of five drugs or more for >30 days). All-cause mortality will be assessed during 3 years of follow-up. We will apply a flexible parametric survival model with backward stepwise selection to identify the mortality risk predictors. The model will be internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. We will derive a point-based risk score from the regression coefficients. We will transform the 3-year mortality prognostic index into an LE estimator using the Gompertz survival function. We will perform a qualitative assessment of the clinical usability of the LE estimator and its application. We will conduct the development and validation of the mortality prognostic index following the Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) framework and report it following the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Written informed consent by patients themselves or, in the case of cognitive impairment, by a legal representative, was required before enrolment. The local ethics committee (Kantonale Ethikkommission Bern) has approved the study. We plan to publish the results in peer-reviewed journals and present them at national and international conferences.

Treatment-Related Changes in Bone Turnover and Fracture Risk Reduction in Clinical Trials of Antiresorptive Drugs: Proportion of Treatment Effect Explained.

Few analyses of antiresorptive (AR) treatment trials relate short-term changes in bone turnover markers (BTMs) to subsequent fracture reduction seeking to estimate the proportion of treatment effect explained (PTE) by BTMs. Pooling such information would be useful to assess new ARs or novel dosing regimens. In the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Bone Quality project, we analyzed individual-level data from up to 62,000 participants enrolled in 12 bisphosphonate (BP) and four selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) placebo-controlled fracture endpoint trials. Using BTM results for two bone formation markers (bone-specific alkaline phosphatase [bone ALP] and pro-collagen I N-propeptide [PINP]) and one bone resorption marker (C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen [CTX]) and incident fracture outcome data, we estimated the PTE using two different models. Separate analyses were performed for incident morphometric vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures over 1 to 5 years of follow-up. For vertebral fracture, the results showed that changes in all three BTMs at 6 months explained a large proportion of the treatment effect of ARs (57 to >100%), but not for and non-vertebral or hip fracture. We conclude that short-term AR treatment-related changes in bone ALP, PINP, and CTX account for a large proportion of the treatment effect for vertebral fracture. Change in BTMs is a useful surrogate marker to study the anti-fracture efficacy of new AR compounds or novel dosing regiments with approved AR drugs. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Bone Turnover Markers Do Not Predict Fracture Risk in Type 2 Diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is characterized by increased fracture risk despite higher BMD and reduced bone turnover. BMD underestimates fracture risk in T2D, but the predictive role of bone turnover markers (BTMs) on fracture risk in T2D has not been explored. Thus, we sought to determine whether BTMs predict incident fractures in subjects with T2D. For this case-cohort study, we used data from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study of well-functioning older adults, aged 70 to 79 years at baseline (April 1997-June 1998). The case-cohort sample consisted of (i) the cases, composed of all 223 participants who experienced incident fractures of the hip, clinical spine, or distal forearm within the first 9 years of study follow-up; and (ii) the subcohort of 508 randomly sampled participants from three strata at baseline (T2D, prediabetes, and normoglycemia) from the entire Health ABC cohort. A total of 690 subjects (223 cases, of whom 41 were in the subcohort) were included in analyses. BTMs (C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen [CTX], osteocalcin [OC], and procollagen type 1 N-terminal propeptide [P1NP]) were measured in archived baseline serum. Cox regression with robust variance estimation was used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for fracture per 20% increase in BTMs. In nondiabetes (prediabetes plus normoglycemia), fracture risk was increased with higher CTX (HR 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.20 for each 20% increase in CTX). Risk was not increased in T2D (HR 0.92; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.04; p for interaction .045). Similarly, both OC and P1NP were associated with higher risk of fracture in nondiabetes, but not in T2D, with p for interaction of .078 and .109, respectively. In conclusion, BTMs did not predict incident fracture risk in T2D but were modestly associated with fracture risk in nondiabetes. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Biomarkers of Bone Turnover Identify Subsets of Chronic Kidney Disease Patients at Higher Risk for Fracture.

BACKGROUND: We sought to identify biomarkers that indicate low turnover on bone histomorphometry in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, and subsequently determined whether this panel identified differential risk for fractures in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Among CKD patients who underwent iliac crest bone biopsies and histomorphometry, we evaluated candidate biomarkers to differentiate low turnover from other bone disease. We applied this biomarker panel to 641 participants in the Health Aging and Body Composition Study (Health ABC) study with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 who were followed for fracture. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association of bone mineral density (BMD) with fracture risk and determined whether biomarker-defined low bone turnover modified fracture risk at any level of BMD. RESULTS: In 39 CKD patients age 64 ± 13 years, 85% female, with mean eGFR 37 ± 14 mL/min/1.73 m2 who underwent bone biopsy, lower fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23, higher ɑ-Klotho, and lower parathyroid hormone (PTH) indicated low bone turnover in accordance with bone histomorphometry parameters (individual area under the curve = 0.62, 0.73, and 0.55 respectively; sensitivity = 22%, specificity = 100%). In Health ABC, 641 participants with CKD were age 75 ± 3 years , 49% female, with mean eGFR 48 ± 10 mL/min/1.73 m2. For every SD lower hip BMD at baseline, there was an 8-fold higher fracture risk in individuals with biomarker-defined low turnover (hazard ratio 8.10 [95% CI, 3.40-19.30]) vs a 2-fold higher risk in the remaining individuals (hazard ratio 2.28 [95% CI, 1.69-3.08]) (Pinteraction = .082). CONCLUSIONS: In CKD patients who underwent bone biopsy, lower FGF-23, higher ɑ-Klotho, and lower PTH together had high specificity for identifying low bone turnover. When applied to older individuals with CKD, BMD was more strongly associated with fracture risk in those with biomarker-defined low turnover.

Osteoporosis Management in the Era of COVID-19.

Osteoporosis is a chronic condition that reflects reduced bone strength and an associated increased risk for fracture. As a chronic condition, osteoporosis generally requires sustained medical intervention(s) to limit the risks for additional bone loss, compromise of skeletal integrity, and fracture occurrence. Further complicating this issue is the fact that the abrupt cessation of some therapies can be associated with an increased risk for harm. It is in this context that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented disruption to the provision of health care globally, including near universal requirements for social distancing. In this Perspective, we provide evidence, where available, regarding the general care of patients with osteoporosis in the COVID-19 era and provide clinical recommendations based primarily on expert opinion when data are absent. Particular emphasis is placed on the transition from parenteral osteoporosis therapies. It is hoped that these recommendations can be used to safely guide care for patients with osteoporosis until a return to routine clinical care standards is available. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Skeletal Effects of Levothyroxine for Subclinical Hypothyroidism in Older Adults: A TRUST Randomized Trial Nested Study.

CONTEXT: Both thyroid dysfunction and levothyroxine (LT4) therapy have been associated with bone loss, but studies on the effect of LT4 for subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo) on bone yielded conflicting results. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of LT4 treatment on bone mineral density (BMD), Trabecular Bone Score (TBS), and bone turnover markers (BTMs) in older adults with SHypo. DESIGN AND INTERVENTION: Planned nested substudy of the double-blind placebo-controlled TRUST trial. Participants with SHypo were randomized to LT4 with dose titration versus placebo with computerized mock titration. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 196 community-dwelling adults over 65 years enrolled at the Swiss TRUST sites had baseline and 1-year follow-up bone examinations; 4 participants withdrew due to adverse events not related to treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: One-year percentage changes of BMD, TBS, and 2 serum BTMs (serum CTX-1 [sCTX] and procollagen type 1 N-terminal polypeptide [P1NP]). Student's t-test for unadjusted analyses and linear regression adjusted for clinical center and sex were performed. RESULTS: Mean age was 74.3 years ± 5.7, 45.4% were women, and 19.6% were osteoporotic. The unadjusted 1-year change in lumbar spine BMD was similar between LT4 (+0.8%) and placebo-treated groups (-0.6%; between-groups difference +1.4%: 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.1 to 2.9, P = .059). Likewise, there were no between-group differences in 1-year change in TBS (-1.3%: 95% CI -3.1 to 0.6, P = .19), total hip BMD (-0.2%: 95% CI -1.1 to 0.1, P = .61), or BTMs levels (sCTX +24.1%: 95% CI -7.9 to 56.2, P = .14), or after adjustment for clinical centers and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Over 1-year levothyroxine had no effect on bone health in older adults with SHypo. REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrial.gov NCT01660126 and NCT02491008.

The Efficacy and Safety of Vertebral Augmentation: A Second ASBMR Task Force Report.

Vertebral augmentation is among the current standards of care to reduce pain in patients with vertebral fractures (VF), yet a lack of consensus regarding efficacy and safety of percutaneous vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty raises questions on what basis clinicians should choose one therapy over another. Given the lack of consensus in the field, the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR) leadership charged this Task Force to address key questions on the efficacy and safety of vertebral augmentation and other nonpharmacological approaches for the treatment of pain after VF. This report details the findings and recommendations of this Task Force. For patients with acutely painful VF, percutaneous vertebroplasty provides no demonstrable clinically significant benefit over placebo. Results did not differ according to duration of pain. There is also insufficient evidence to support kyphoplasty over nonsurgical management, percutaneous vertebroplasty, vertebral body stenting, or KIVA®. There is limited evidence to determine the risk of incident VF or serious adverse effects (AE) related to either percutaneous vertebroplasty or kyphoplasty. No recommendation can be made about harms, but they cannot be excluded. For patients with painful VF, it is unclear whether spinal bracing improves physical function, disability, or quality of life. Exercise may improve mobility and may reduce pain and fear of falling but does not reduce falls or fractures in individuals with VF. General and intervention-specific research recommendations stress the need to reduce study bias and address methodological flaws in study design and data collection. This includes the need for larger sample sizes, inclusion of a placebo control, more data on serious AE, and more research on nonpharmacologic interventions. Routine use of vertebral augmentation is not supported by current evidence. When it is offered, patients should be fully informed about the evidence. Anti-osteoporotic medications reduce the risk of subsequent vertebral fractures by 40-70%. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.