A critique of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council CEO statement on electronic cigarettes.

This paper critically analyses a statement by Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) on e-cigarettes in May 2022 that will be used to guide national policy. We reviewed the evidence and the conclusions drawn in the NHMRC Statement. In our view, the Statement is not a balanced reflection of the benefits and risks of vaping because it exaggerates the risks of vaping and fails to compare them to the far greater risks of smoking; it uncritically accepts evidence of harms from e-cigarettes while adopting a highly sceptical attitude towards evidence of their benefits; it incorrectly claims that the association between adolescent vaping and subsequent smoking is causal; and it understates the evidence of the benefits of e-cigarettes in assisting smokers to quit. The Statement dismisses the evidence that vaping is probably already having a positive net public health effect and misapplies the precautionary principle. Several sources of evidence supporting our assessment were published after the NHMRC Statement's publication and are also referenced. The NHMRC Statement on e-cigarettes does not present a balanced assessment of the available scientific literature and fails to meet the standard expected of a leading national scientific body.

Use of e-cigarettes and smoked tobacco in youth aged 14-15 years in New Zealand: findings from repeated cross-sectional studies (2014-19).

BACKGROUND: Media reports of a vaping epidemic among youth have raised concerns about the creation of a new generation of nicotine-dependent individuals who could graduate to cigarette smoking. We investigated the use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes in the youth of New Zealand from 2014 to 2019, with focus on daily use of these products as an indicator of potential dependence. METHODS: We analysed data from the Action for Smokefree 2025 Year-10 survey, an annual cross-sectional survey of tobacco use undertaken by almost half of all school students aged 14-15 years (21 504-31 021 students). The survey includes questions on whether students had ever smoked (even just a few puffs) and their current smoking behaviour (at least once a day, week, or month, or less often than once a month). In 2014, a question was added asking if students had ever tried an e-cigarette. Subsequent surveys asked about e-cigarette use at least once a day, week, or month, or less often than once a month. We compared the frequency of e-cigarette use with cigarette smoking by survey year, age, gender, ethnicity, and school decile (a proxy for socioeconomic status). We did χ2 analyses to compare categorical variables and Cochran-Armitage trend tests to assess changes over time. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine predictors of e-cigarette and cigarette use in 2019. FINDINGS: All measures of e-cigarette use increased and all measures of cigarette use decreased or remained static over time. Although the proportion of students who had ever tried e-cigarettes in 2019 (37·3%, 10 093 of 27 083), exceeded the proportion who had ever smoked (19·6%, 5375 of 27 354), daily use of products was low: e-cigarettes (3·1%, 832 of 26 532), cigarettes (2·1%, 575 of 27 212), both (0·6%, 159 of 27 633). In 2019, daily use of e-cigarettes was very low in never-smokers (0·8%, 175 of 21 385). Students who were Maori, Pacific, gender diverse, or from low-decile and mid-decile schools were more likely to be daily users of e-cigarettes or cigarettes, and males were more likely to be daily e-cigarette users, but less likely to smoke daily than females. INTERPRETATION: The overall decline in smoking over the past 6 years in New Zealand youth suggests that e-cigarettes might be displacing smoking. Ongoing monitoring will be important to determine whether the liberalisation of e-cigarette availability and marketing in New Zealand has any effect on long-term patterns of daily e-cigarette and cigarette use. FUNDING: New Zealand Ministry of Health.

Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality from the four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as the 25 × 25 target). Countries also agreed on a set of global voluntary targets for selected NCD risk factors. Previous analyses have shown that achieving the risk factor targets can contribute substantially towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target at the global level. We estimated the contribution of achieving six of the globally agreed risk factor targets towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target by region. METHODS: We estimated the effect of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multicausality of NCDs and for the fact that, when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from reanalyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. FINDINGS: The probability of dying between the ages 30 years and 70 years from the four main NCDs in 2010 ranged from 19% in the region of the Americas to 29% in southeast Asia for men, and from 13% in Europe to 21% in southeast Asia for women. If current trends continue, the probability of dying prematurely from the four main NCDs is projected to increase in the African region but decrease in the other five regions. If the risk factor targets are achieved, the 25 × 25 target will be surpassed in Europe in both men and women, and will be achieved in women (and almost achieved in men) in the western Pacific; the regions of the Americas, the eastern Mediterranean, and southeast Asia will approach the target; and the rising trend in Africa will be reversed. In most regions, a more ambitious approach to tobacco control (50% reduction relative to 2010 instead of the agreed 30%) will contribute the most to reducing premature NCD mortality among men, followed by addressing raised blood pressure and the agreed tobacco target. For women, the highest contributing risk factor towards the premature NCD mortality target will be raised blood pressure in every region except Europe and the Americas, where the ambitious (but not agreed) tobacco reduction would have the largest benefit. INTERPRETATION: No WHO region will meet the 25 × 25 premature mortality target if current mortality trends continue. Achieving the agreed targets for the six risk factors will allow some regions to meet the 25 × 25 target and others to approach it. Meeting the 25 × 25 target in Africa needs other interventions, including those addressing infection-related cancers and cardiovascular disease. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

Health information priorities for more effective implementation and monitoring of non-communicable disease programs in low- and middle-income countries: lessons from the Pacific.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) place enormous burdens on individuals and health systems. While there has been significant global progress to guide the development of national NCD monitoring programs, many countries still struggle to adequately establish critical information systems to prioritise NCD control approaches. DISCUSSION: In this paper, we use the recent experience of the Pacific as a case study to highlight four key lessons about prioritising strategies for health information system development for monitoring NCDs: first, NCD interventions must be chosen strategically, taking into account local disease burden and capacities; second, NCD monitoring efforts must align with those interventions so as to be capable of evaluating progress; third, in order to ensure efficiency and sustainability, NCD monitoring strategies must be integrated into existing health information systems; finally, countries should monitor the implementation of key policies to control food and tobacco industries. Prioritising NCD interventions to suit local needs is critical and should be accompanied by careful consideration of the most appropriate and feasible monitoring strategies to track and evaluate progress.

A tobacco-free world: a call to action to phase out the sale of tobacco products by 2040.

The time has come for the world to acknowledge the unacceptability of the damage being done by the tobacco industry and work towards a world essentially free from the sale (legal and illegal) of tobacco products. A tobacco-free world by 2040, where less than 5% of the world's adult population use tobacco, is socially desirable, technically feasible, and could become politically practical. Three possible ways forward exist: so-called business-as-usual, with most countries steadily implementing the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) provisions; accelerated implementation of the FCTC by all countries; and a so-called turbo-charged approach that complements FCTC actions with strengthened UN leadership, full engagement of all sectors, and increased investment in tobacco control. Only the turbo-charged approach will achieve a tobacco-free world by 2040 where tobacco is out of sight, out of mind, and out of fashion--yet not prohibited. The first and most urgent priority is the inclusion of an ambitious tobacco target in the post-2015 sustainable development health goal. The second priority is accelerated implementation of the FCTC policies in all countries, with full engagement from all sectors including the private sector--from workplaces to pharmacies--and with increased national and global investment. The third priority is an amendment of the FCTC to include an ambitious global tobacco reduction goal. The fourth priority is a UN high-level meeting on tobacco use to galvanise global action towards the 2040 tobacco-free world goal on the basis of new strategies, new resources, and new players. Decisive and strategic action on this bold vision will prevent hundreds of millions of unnecessary deaths during the remainder of this century and safeguard future generations from the ravages of tobacco use.

Women and NCDs: overcoming the neglect.

Two in every three deaths among women are caused by non-communicable diseases (NCDs) - largely heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. The global discourse on health, however, largely views women in terms of their reproductive capacity, a persisting myth reflecting gender bias that shifts the focus away from NCDs, violence, and other injuries. Risk factors for NCDs are similar for men and women. Because fewer women actively smoke than men, and drink in less harmful ways, in most parts of the world, the impact of major NCD risk factors is far less in women than in men. In the area of diagnosis and treatment, gender bias can result in women being asked fewer questions, and receiving fewer examinations and fewer diagnostic tests for coronary heart disease and other NCDs compared with men with similar symptoms. In response to a UN meeting in September 2011, member states of WHO have agreed to a global goal to reduce avoidable NCD mortality by 25% by 2025 ('25 by 25'). A set of voluntary targets and indictors have been agreed upon, although none of them are gender specific. Most require changes at the policy level that will ensure that women - and children - will also benefit. As the 2015 deadline for the Millennium Development Goals approaches, women and NCDs should be central to the sustainable human development agenda.

Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality (defined as the probability of dying between the ages of 30 years and 70 years) from four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs)--cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes--by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as 25×25 target). Targets for selected NCD risk factors have also been agreed on. We estimated the contribution of achieving six risk factor targets towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target. METHODS: We estimated the impact of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multi-causality of NCDs and for the fact that when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from re-analyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. FINDINGS: If risk factor targets are achieved, the probability of dying from the four main NCDs between the ages of 30 years and 70 years will decrease by 22% in men and by 19% in women between 2010 and 2025, compared with a decrease of 11% in men and 10% in women under the so-called business-as-usual trends (ie, projections based on current trends with no additional action). Achieving the risk factor targets will delay or prevent more than 37 million deaths (16 million in people aged 30-69 years and 21 million in people aged 70 years or older) from the main NCDs over these 15 years compared with a situation of rising or stagnating risk factor trends. Most of the benefits of achieving the risk factor targets, including 31 million of the delayed or prevented deaths, will be in low-income and middle-income countries, and will help to reduce the global inequality in premature NCD mortality. A more ambitious target on tobacco use (a 50% reduction) will almost reach the target in men (>24% reduction in the probability of death), and enhance the benefits to a 20% reduction in women. INTERPRETATION: If the agreed risk factor targets are met, premature mortality from the four main NCDs will decrease to levels that are close to the 25×25 target, with most of these benefits seen in low-income and middle-income countries. On the basis of mortality benefits and feasibility, a more ambitious target than currently agreed should be adopted for tobacco use. FUNDING: UK MRC.

Country actions to meet UN commitments on non-communicable diseases: a stepwise approach.

Strong leadership from heads of state is needed to meet national commitments to the UN political declaration on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and to achieve the goal of a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025 (the 25 by 25 goal). A simple, phased, national response to the political declaration is suggested, with three key steps: planning, implementation, and accountability. Planning entails mobilisation of a multisectoral response to develop and support the national action plan, and to build human, financial, and regulatory capacity for change. Implementation of a few priority and feasible cost-effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of NCDs will achieve the 25 by 25 goal and will need only few additional financial resources. Accountability incorporates three dimensions: monitoring of progress, reviewing of progress, and appropriate responses to accelerate progress. A national NCD commission or equivalent, which is independent of government, is needed to ensure that all relevant stakeholders are held accountable for the UN commitments to NCDs.