Obstetric fistula scoring tool for surgical trainees.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the ability of a previously published risk score to predict incontinence at discharge in women with vesicovaginal fistulas (VVF) and to examine how the score correlates with an independent assessment of surgical skill. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study including cases from January to June 2018. We evaluated operative records for factors associated with incontinence at hospital discharge, as well as relationships between a risk score cut-point of 20 or more and surgical skill level. All women with VVF undergoing vaginal repair were included. RESULTS: A total of 176 individuals underwent repair; 23 were performed by beginner, 85 by intermediate, 47 by advanced, and 21 by expert surgeons. Factors found significantly associated with incontinence at hospital discharge included Goh classification, fistula size, circumferential fistula, and vaginal scarring. A score of 20 or more predicted residual incontinence with a negative predictive value of 92% (odds ratio 7.75, 95% confidence interval 2.95-22.34). Applying the score cut-point of 20 or more, we found an increased proportion of "high-risk" cases allocated to surgeons with an increasing level of expertise. CONCLUSION: The correlation we observed between a risk score cut-point of 20 or more, continence status, and an independent assessment of surgical skill is promising. Although the risk score is not meant to replace clinical judgment, it may provide a surgical trainee with an objective method of determining whether to operate or refer for optimal outcomes.

Transportability From Randomized Trials to Clinical Care: On Initial HIV Treatment With Efavirenz and Suicidal Thoughts or Behaviors.

In an analysis of randomized trials, use of efavirenz for treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was associated with increased suicidal thoughts/behaviors. However, analyses of observational data have found no evidence of increased risk. To assess whether population differences might explain this divergence, we transported the effect of efavirenz use from these trials to a specific target population. Using inverse odds weights and multiple imputation, we transported the effect of efavirenz on suicidal thoughts/behaviors in these randomized trials (participants were enrolled in 2001-2007) to a trials-eligible cohort of US adults initiating antiretroviral therapy while receiving HIV clinical care at medical centers between 1999 and 2015. Overall, 8,291 cohort participants and 3,949 trial participants were eligible. Prescription of antidepressants (19% vs. 13%) and injection drug history (16% vs. 10%) were more frequent in the cohort than in the trial participants. Compared with the effect in trials, the estimated hazard ratio for efavirenz on suicidal thoughts/behaviors was attenuated in our target population (trials: hazard ratio (HR) = 2.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2, 4.4); transported: HR = 1.8 (95% CI: 0.9, 4.4)), whereas the incidence rate difference was similar (trials: HR = 5.1 (95% CI: 1.6, 8.7); transported: HR = 5.4 (95% CI: -0.4, 11.4)). In our target population, there was greater than 20% attenuation of the hazard ratio estimate as compared with the trials-only estimate. Transporting results from trials to a target population is informative for addressing external validity.

HIV and COVID-19: Intersecting Epidemics With Many Unknowns.

As of July 2020, approximately 6 months into the pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), whether people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) are disproportionately affected remains an unanswered question. Thus far, risk of COVID-19 in people with and without HIV appears similar, but data are sometimes contradictory. Some uncertainty is due to the recency of the emergence of COVID-19 and sparsity of data; some is due to imprecision about what it means for HIV to be a "risk factor" for COVID-19. Forthcoming studies on the risk of COVID-19 to PLWH should differentiate between 1) the unadjusted, excess burden of disease among PLWH to inform surveillance efforts and 2) any excess risk of COVID-19 among PLWH due to biological effects of HIV, independent of comorbidities that confound rather than mediate this effect. PLWH bear a disproportionate burden of alcohol, other drug use, and mental health disorders, as well as other structural vulnerabilities, which might increase their risk of COVID-19. In addition to any direct effects of COVID-19 on the health of PLWH, we need to understand how physical distancing restrictions affect secondary health outcomes and the need for, accessibility of, and impact of alternative modalities of providing ongoing medical, mental health, and substance use treatment that comply with physical distancing restrictions (e.g., telemedicine).

Perinatal depression among mothers in a South African birth cohort study: Trajectories from pregnancy to 18 months postpartum.

BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression affects 21-50% of women in South Africa and poses significant health risks to mothers and children. Trajectories of depressive symptoms change over time and have not been well characterized during the perinatal period in low and middle-income countries. METHODS: Data from women enrolled in a population-based birth cohort study in Paarl, South Africa with at least 3 depression measures from pregnancy through 18 months postpartum (N = 831) were analyzed. Depressive symptoms were measured continuously using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Group-based trajectory models were used to estimate trajectories of depressive symptoms during the perinatal period and multinomial multivariable models to identify predictors of trajectory group membership. RESULTS: Five distinct trajectory patterns of depressive symptoms were identified: moderate levels of depressive symptoms during pregnancy but minimal postpartum (3.5%), minimal levels during pregnancy and increasing postpartum (3.7%), unstable levels peaking at 12 months postpartum (6.6%), mild levels with slight decrease postpartum (82.9%), and severe levels during pregnancy and postpartum (3.1%). Membership in the chronic severe symptom group was associated with stressful life events, sexual intimate partner violence and tobacco use. LIMITATIONS: Modeling limitations prevented determining how changes in psychosocial predictors over time may influence depressive symptom trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Mild to severe depressive symptoms during pregnancy/postpartum were common among this South African cohort. Interventions to treat women with severe chronic depressive symptoms with co-occurring psychosocial issues are urgently needed.

Cumulative Burden of Depression and All-Cause Mortality in Women Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

Background: Research linking depression to mortality among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) has largely focused on binary "always vs never" characterizations of depression. However, depression is chronic and is likely to have cumulative effects on mortality over time. Quantifying depression as a cumulative exposure may provide a better indication of the clinical benefit of enhanced depression treatment protocols delivered in HIV care settings. Methods: Women living with HIV (WLWH), naive to antiretroviral therapy, from the Women's Interagency HIV Study were followed from their first visit in or after 1998 for up to 10 semiannual visits (5 years). Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. An area-under-the-curve approach was used to translate CES-D scores into a time-updated measure of cumulative days with depression (CDWD). We estimated the effect of CDWD on all-cause mortality using marginal structural Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Overall, 818 women contributed 3292 woman-years over a median of 4.8 years of follow-up, during which the median (interquartile range) CDWD was 366 (97-853). Ninety-four women died during follow-up (2.9 deaths/100 woman-years). A dose-response relationship was observed between CDWD and mortality. Each additional 365 days spent with depression increased mortality risk by 72% (hazard ratio, 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-2.20). Conclusions: In this sample of WLWH, increased CDWD elevated mortality rates in a dose-response fashion. More frequent monitoring and enhanced depression treatment protocols designed to reduce CDWD may interrupt the accumulation of mortality risk among WLWH.

Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms Among a Population of HIV-Infected Men and Women in Routine HIV Care in the United States.

Depressive symptoms vary in severity and chronicity. We used group-based trajectory models to describe trajectories of depressive symptoms (measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9) and predictors of trajectory group membership among 1493 HIV-infected men (84%) and 292 HIV-infected women (16%). At baseline, 29% of women and 26% of men had depressive symptoms. Over a median of 30 months of follow-up, we identified four depressive symptom trajectories for women (labeled "low" [experienced by 56% of women], "mild/moderate" [24%], "improving" [14%], and "severe" [6%]) and five for men ("low" [61%], "mild/moderate" [14%], "rebounding" [5%], "improving" [13%], and "severe" [7%]). Baseline antidepressant prescription, panic symptoms, and prior mental health diagnoses were associated with more severe or dynamic depressive symptom trajectories. Nearly a quarter of participants experienced some depressive symptoms, highlighting the need for improved depression management. Addressing more severe or dynamic depressive symptom trajectories may require interventions that additionally address mental health comorbidities.

Identifying Patients With Vesicovaginal Fistula at High Risk of Urinary Incontinence After Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk score to identify women with vesicovaginal fistula at high risk of residual urinary incontinence after surgical repair. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study among 401 women undergoing their first vesicovaginal fistula repair at a referral fistula repair center in Lilongwe, Malawi, between September 2011 and December 2014, who returned for follow-up within 120 days of surgery. We used logistic regression to develop a risk score to identify women with a high likelihood of residual urinary incontinence, defined as incontinence grade 2-5 within 120 days of vesicovaginal fistula repair, based on preoperative clinical and demographic characteristics (age, number of years with fistula, human immunodeficiency virus status, body mass index, previous repair surgery at an outside facility, revised Goh classification, Goh vesicovaginal fistula size, circumferential fistula, vaginal scaring, bladder size, and urethral length). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the risk score at each cut point were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 11 (3%) women had unsuccessful fistula closure. Of those with successful fistula closure (n=372), 85 (23%) experienced residual incontinence. A risk score cut point of 20 had sensitivity of 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] 72-89%) and specificity 63% (95% CI 57-69%) to potentially identify women with residual incontinence. In our population, the positive predictive value for a risk score cut point of 20 or higher was 43% (95% CI 36-51%) and the negative predictive value was 91% (95% CI 86-94%). Forty-eight percent of our study population had a risk score 20 or greater and, therefore, would have been identified for further intervention. CONCLUSION: A risk score of 20 or higher was associated with an increased likelihood of residual incontinence with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity. If validated in alternative settings, the risk score could be used to refer women with a high likelihood of postoperative incontinence to more experienced surgeons.

Training needs in operative obstetrics for maternal-fetal medicine fellows.

OBJECTIVE: To define residual operative obstetric training needs for first-year maternal-fetal medicine (MFM) fellows. METHODS: We administered a web-based survey to all 100 first-year fellows. We used descriptive statistics to report frequency data for 13 procedures, and logistic regression to estimate odds ratios for comfort in doing and teaching selected procedures. RESULTS: Response rate was 86% (n = 86). Fellows who completed residency in the Northeast/Midatlantic (n = 26) were less likely to report comfort doing or teaching low forceps deliveries (OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.05, 0.78; and 0.20, 95% CI 0.04, 0.85, respectively), while those completing fellowship in the West (n = 13), reported more comfort performing breech extraction of a second twin (OR 6.84, 95% CI 1.24, 51.50); fellows completing residency in the Southeast formed the referent group. Fellows reporting completion of the three selected procedures >5 times each during residency were significantly more likely to report comfort doing and teaching them as fellows. Type of residency program (community/academic) was not significantly associated with reported comfort. CONCLUSION: The wide range of operative obstetric experience fellows reported gaining in residency varies by region. Additional research is needed to understand competency and teaching ability for procedural skills, and many MFM fellows may need additional procedural experience.

Levels of alcohol use and history of HIV testing among female sex workers in Mombasa, Kenya.

HIV testing is a critical first step to accessing HIV care and treatment, particularly for high-risk groups such as female sex workers (FSWs). Alcohol use may be a barrier to accessing HIV services, including HIV testing. We analyzed data from a cross-sectional survey of 818 FSWs in Mombasa, Kenya, and estimated the association between different levels of alcohol use and having never tested for HIV. In multivariable analyses, higher levels of alcohol consumption were associated with having never tested for HIV (PR 1.60; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.40). Future interventions should explore whether reducing harmful drinking improves HIV testing among FSWs.