Liver decompensation is a frequent cause of treatment discontinuation and prognostic factor in intermediate-advanced HCC.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: With the advent of new therapeutic options for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for intermediate or advanced stages of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), regional real-world data regarding prognostic survival factors are of significant importance. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Latin America including BCLC B or C patients since 15th May 2018. We report here the second interim analysis focusing on prognostic variables and causes of treatment discontinuation. Cox proportional hazard survival analysis was performed, estimating hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: Overall, 390 patients were included, 55.1% and 44.9% were BCLC B and C at the time of study enrollment. Cirrhosis was present in 89.5% of the cohort. Among the BCLC-B group, 42.3% were treated with TACE with a median survival since the first session of 41.9 months. Liver decompensation before TACE was independently associated with increased mortality [HR 3.22 (CI 1.64;6.33); P<.001]. Systemic treatment was initiated in 48.2% of the cohort (n=188), with a median survival of 15.7 months. Of these, 48.9% presented first-line treatment discontinuation (44.4% tumor progression, 29.3% liver decompensation, 18.5% symptomatic deterioration, and 7.8% intolerance), and only 28.7% received second-line systemic treatments. Liver decompensation [HR 2.9 (1.64;5.29); P<.0001], and symptomatic progression [HR 3.9 (1.53;9.78); P=0.004] were independently associated with mortality after first-line systemic treatment discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: The complexity of these patients, with one-third presenting liver decompensation after systemic therapies, underlines the need for multidisciplinary team management and the central role of hepatologists.

Performance of pre-transplant criteria in prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma progression and waitlist dropout.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Liver transplantation (LT) selection models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have not been proposed to predict waitlist dropout because of tumour progression. The aim of this study was to compare the alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and other pre-LT models in their prediction of HCC dropout. METHODS: A multicentre cohort study was conducted in 20 Latin American transplant centres, including 994 listed patients for LT with HCC from 2012 to 2018. Longitudinal tumour characteristics, and patterns of progression were recorded at time of listing, after treatments and at last follow-up over the waitlist period. Competing risk regression models were performed, and model's discrimination was compared estimating Harrell's adapted c-statistics. RESULTS: HCC dropout rate was significantly higher in patients beyond (24% [95% CI 16-28]) compared to those within Milan criteria (8% [95% IC 5%-12%]; p < .0001), with a SHR of 3.01 [95% CI 2.03-4.47]), adjusted for waiting list time and bridging therapies (c-index 0.63 [95% CI 0.57; 0.69). HCC dropout rates were higher in patients with AFP scores >2 (adjusted SHR of 3.17 [CI 2.13-4.71]), c-index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77; p = .09 vs Milan). Similar discrimination power for HCC dropout was observed between the AFP score and the Metroticket 2.0 model. In patients within Milan, an AFP score >2 points discriminated two populations with a higher risk of HCC dropout (SHR 1.68 [95% CI 1.08-2.61]). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-transplant selection models similarly predicted HCC dropout. However, the AFP model can discriminate a higher risk of dropout among patients within Milan criteria.

Failure in all steps of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance process is frequent in daily practice.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Failures at any step in the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance process can result in HCC diagnostic delays and associated worse prognosis. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of surveillance failure and its associated risk factors in patients with HCC in Argentina, considering three steps: 1) recognition of at-risk patients, 2) implementation of HCC surveillance, 3) success of HCC surveillance. METHODS: We performed a multi-center cross-sectional study of patients at-risk for HCC in Argentina seen between10.01.2018 and 10.30.2019. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify correlates of surveillance failure. RESULTS: Of 301 included patients, the majority were male (74.8%) with a mean age of 64 years old. At the time of HCC diagnosis, 75 (25%) patients were unaware of their diagnosis of chronic liver disease, and only 130 (43%) patients were under HCC surveillance. Receipt of HCC surveillance was significantly associated with follow-up by a hepatologist. Of 119 patients with complete surveillance, surveillance failure occurred in 30 (25%) patients. Surveillance failure was significantly associated with alpha fetoprotein ≥20 ng/mL (OR 4.0, CI 95% 1.43-11.55). CONCLUSIONS: HCC surveillance failure was frequent in all the evaluated steps. These data should help guide strategies to improve the implementation and results of HCC surveillance in our country.

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: Prognostic and predictive factors of survival in a Latin American cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) has a poor prognosis, and the adjusted effect of different treatments on post-recurrence survival (PRS) has not been well defined. This study aims to evaluate prognostic and predictive variables associated with PRS. METHODS: This Latin American multicenter retrospective cohort study included HCC patients who underwent LT between the years 2005-2018. We evaluated the effect of baseline characteristics at time of HCC recurrence diagnosis and PRS (Cox regression analysis). Early recurrences were those occurring within 12 months of LT. To evaluate the adjusted treatment effect for HCC recurrence, a propensity score matching analysis was performed to assess the probability of having received any specific treatment for recurrence. RESULTS: From a total of 1085 transplanted HCC patients, the cumulative incidence of recurrence was 16.6% (CI 13.5-20.3), with median time to recurrence of 13.0 months (IQR 6.0-26.0). Factors independently associated with PRS were early recurrence (47.6%), treatment with sorafenib and surgery/trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE). Patients who underwent any treatment presented "early recurrences" less frequently, and more extrahepatic metastasis. This unbalanced distribution was included in the propensity score matching, with correct calibration and discrimination (receiving operator curve of 0.81 [CI 0.72;0.88]). After matching, the adjusted effect on PRS for any treatment was HR of 0.2 (0.10;0.33); P < .0001, for sorafenib therapy HR of 0.4 (0.27;0.77); P = .003, and for surgery/TACE HR of 0.4 (0.18;0.78); P = .009. CONCLUSION: Although early recurrence was associated with worse outcome, even in this population, systemic or locoregional treatments were associated with better PRS.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: impact of expansion criteria in a multicenter cohort study from a high waitlist mortality region.

This study aimed to compare liver transplantation (LT) outcomes and evaluate the potential rise in numbers of LT candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of different allocation policies in a high waitlist mortality region. Three policies were applied in two Latin American cohorts (1085 HCC transplanted patients and 917 listed patients for HCC): (i) Milan criteria with expansion according to UCSF downstaging (UCSF-DS), (ii) the AFP score, and (iii) restrictive policy or Double Eligibility Criteria (DEC; within Milan + AFP score ≤2). Increase in HCC patient numbers was evaluated in an Argentinian prospective validation set (INCUCAI; NCT03775863). Expansion criteria in policy A showed that UCSF-DS [28.4% (CI 12.8-56.2)] or "all-comers" [32.9% (CI 11.9-71.3)] had higher 5-year recurrence rates compared to Milan, with 10.9% increase in HCC patients for LT. The policy B showed lower recurrence rates for AFP scores ≤2 points, even expanding beyond Milan criteria, with a 3.3% increase. Patients within DEC had lower 5-year recurrence rates compared with those beyond DEC [13.3% (CI 10.1-17.3) vs 24.2% (CI 17.4-33.1; P = 0.0006], without significant HCC expansion. In conclusion, although the application of a stricter policy may optimize the selection process, this restrictive policy may lead to ethical concerns in organ allocation (NCT03775863).

Direct-Acting Antivirals and Hepatocellular Carcinoma: No Evidence of Higher Wait-List Progression or Posttransplant Recurrence.

The association between direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) wait-list progression or its recurrence following liver transplantation (LT) remains uncertain. We evaluated the impact of DAAs on HCC wait-list progression and post-LT recurrence. This Latin American multicenter retrospective cohort study included HCC patients listed for LT between 2012 and 2018. Patients were grouped according to etiology of liver disease: hepatitis C virus (HCV) negative, HCV+ never treated with DAAs, and HCV+ treated with DAAs either before or after transplantation. Multivariate competing risks models were conducted for both HCC wait-list progression adjusted by a propensity score matching (pre-LT DAA effect) and for post-LT HCC recurrence (pre- or post-LT DAA effect). From 994 included patients, 50.6% were HCV-, 32.9% were HCV+ never treated with DAAs, and 16.5% were HCV+ treated with DAAs either before (n = 66) or after LT (n = 98). Patients treated with DAAs before LT presented similar cumulative incidence of wait-list tumor progression when compared with those patients who were HCV+ without DAAs (26.2% versus 26.9%; P = 0.47) and a similar HCC-related dropout rate (12.1% [95% CI, 0.4%-8.1%] versus 12.9% [95% CI, 3.8%-27.2%]), adjusted for baseline tumor burden, alpha-fetoprotein values, HCC diagnosis after listing, bridging therapies, and by the probability of having received or not received DAAs through propensity score matching (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.9; 95% CI, 0.6-1.6; P = 0.95). A lower incidence of posttransplant HCC recurrence among HCV+ patients who were treated with pre- or post-LT DAAs was observed (SHR, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.2%-4.0%). However, this effect was confounded by the time to DAA initiation after LT. In conclusion, in this multicenter cohort, HCV treatment with DAAs did not appear to be associated with an increased wait-list tumor progression and HCC recurrence after LT.

Cystatin C and Sarcopenia Predict Acute on Chronic Liver Failure Development and Mortality in Patients on the Liver Transplant Waiting List.

BACKGROUND: Cystatin C (CysC) is an early biomarker of renal dysfunction scarcely studied in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT). Sarcopenia is frequent in cirrhosis and impacts prognosis. We aimed to assess the capability of these factors to predict survival and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients awaiting LT, as well as early post-LT outcomes. METHODS: Single-center study that included all cirrhotic patients listed for LT between 2014 and 2017. Competing risk regression analysis was used to evaluate the capability of liver-, kidney-, and global status-related variables at waitlist (WL) inclusion to predict WL mortality and ACLF. Variables associated with post-LT outcomes were evaluated with logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: One-hundred-and-eighty patients were included. Fifty-six (31%) patients developed ACLF, 54 (30%) underwent LT and 35 (19%) died. In the adjusted competing risk regression analysis, CysC ≥ 1.5 mg/L, sarcopenia and MELD-Na were independent predictors of ACLF in the WL, while CysC ≥ 1.5 mg/L, sarcopenia and albumin were independent predictors of mortality. The cumulative incidence of ACLF and mortality at 12 months were 50% and 34% in patients with sarcopenia and CysC ≥1.5 mg/L. An estimated glomerular filtration rate by chronic kidney disease (CKD)-EPI-CysC-creatinine <60 mL/min/1.73 m at WL inclusion was an independent predictor of the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in the first month post-LT. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of CysC and sarcopenia are strongly associated with the ACLF and mortality in WL. The assessment of both risk factors may improve the prognostic evaluation and allow identifying a group of patients with a very high risk of poor outcomes while awaiting LT.

Intermediate-advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in Argentina: Treatment and survival analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents the sixteenth most frequent cancer in Argentina. The rise of new therapeutic modalities in intermediate-advanced HCC opens up a new paradigm for the treatment of HCC. AIM: To describe real-life treatments performed in patients with intermediate-advanced HCC before the approval of new systemic options. METHODS: This longitudinal observational cohort study was conducted between 2009 and 2016 in 14 different regional hospitals from Argentina. Included subjects had intermediate-advanced Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) HCC stages (BCLC B to D). Primary end point analyzed was survival, which was assessed for each BCLC stage from the date of treatment until last patient follow-up or death. Kaplan Meier survival curves and Cox regression analysis were performed, with hazard ratios (HR) calculations and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: From 327 HCC patients, 41% were BCLC stage B, 20% stage C and 39% stage D. Corresponding median survival were 15 mo (IQR 5-26 mo), 5 mo (IQR 2-13 mo) and 3 mo (IQR 1-13 mo) (P < 0.0001), respectively. Among BCLC-B patients (n = 135), 57% received TACE with a median number of 2 sessions (IQR 1-3 sessions). Survival was significantly better in BCLC-B patients treated with TACE HR = 0.29 (CI: 0.21-0.40) than those without TACE. After tumor reassessment by RECIST 1.1 criteria following the first TACE, patients with complete response achieved longer survival [HR = 0.15 (CI: 0.04-0.56, P = 0.005)]. Eighty-two patients were treated with sorafenib, mostly BCLC-B and C (87.8%). However, 12.2% were BCLC-D. Median survival with sorafenib was 4.5 mo (IQR 2.3-11.7 mo); which was lower among BCLC-D patients 3.2 mo (IQR 2.0-14.1 mo). A total of 36 BCLC-B patients presented tumor progression after TACE. In these patients, treatment with sorafenib presented better survival when compared to those patients who received sorafenib without prior TACE [HR = 0.26 (CI: 0.09-0.71); P = 0.013]. CONCLUSION: In this real setting, our results were lower than expected. This highlights unmet needs in Argentina, prior to the introduction of new treatments for HCC.

B.A.R.C.O.S. (Brazilian Argentine Hepatitis C Collaborative Observational Study): Effectiveness and clinical outcomes of HCV treatment with daclatasvir and sofosbuvir with or without ribavirin.

Real-world data evaluating the effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment have been reported from different regions. Our aim was to evaluate the effectiveness and clinical outcomes of daclatasvir (DCV) and sofosbuvir (SOF) ± ribavirin (RBV) in a prospective multicentre cohort study including patients from Argentina and Brazil who received DCV/SOF ± RBV for 12 or 24 weeks from 2015 to 2018. Multivariable logistic regression models were carried out to identify factors associated with failure to achieve sustained virologic response (SVR) as a primary end point, and to death, decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or liver transplantation (LT) as a composite secondary end point. From a total of 1517 patients treated with DCV/SOF, 906 completed 12 weeks post-treatment evaluation and were included in the analysis. Overall SVR12 rate was 96.1% (95% CI: 94.6%-97.2%), and 95% (95% CI: 92.8%-96.6%) in patients with cirrhosis. LT recipients and presence of cirrhosis were independently associated with failure to achieve SVR. During post-SVR12 follow-up, cumulative incidence of the secondary end point was 2.4% (95% CI: 1.5%-3.6%); two patients died from nonliver-related causes and two from HCC, five underwent LT, 12 developed HCC and 17 patients developed hepatic decompensation. Independent variables associated with these composite secondary end points were prior to HCV treatment and presence of cirrhosis. In conclusion, although the high pangenotypic effectiveness of DCV/SOF ± RBV was confirmed in our real-life cohort, patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis showed higher risk of non-SVR and complication appearance during treatment or after achieving SVR.

Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Does the Place Where Ultrasound Is Performed Impact Its Effectiveness?

BACKGROUND: Biannual ultrasound (US) is recommended as the clinical screening tool for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The effectiveness of surveillance according to the place where US is performed has not been previously reported. AIMS: To compare the effectiveness of US performed in the center responsible for follow-up as opposed to US proceeding from centers other than that of follow-up. METHODS: This is a multicenter cohort study from Argentina. The last US was categorized as done in the same center or done in a different center from the institution of the patient's follow-up. Surveillance failure was defined as HCC diagnosis not meeting Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages 0-A or when no nodules were observed at HCC diagnosis. RESULTS: From 533 patients with HCC, 62.4% were under routine surveillance with a surveillance failure of 38.8%. After adjusting for a propensity score matching, BCLC stage and lead-time survival bias, surveillance was associated with a significant survival benefit [HR of 0.51 (CI 0.38; 0.69)]. Among patients under routine surveillance (n = 345), last US was performed in the same center in 51.6% and in a different center in 48.4%. Similar rates of surveillance failure were observed between US done in the same or in a different center (32% vs. 26.3%; P = 0.25). Survival was not significantly different between both surveillance modalities [HR 0.79 (CI 0.53; 1.20)]. CONCLUSIONS: Routine surveillance for HCC in the daily practice improved survival either when performed in the same center or in a different center from that of patient's follow-up.

Adherence to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer therapeutic algorithm for hepatocellular carcinoma in the daily practice: a multicenter cohort study from Argentina.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Adherence to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging algorithm for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma is challenging in the daily practice. We aimed to analyze adherence to BCLC along with its effect on patient survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A cohort study was conducted in 14 hospitals from Argentina including patients with newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma (2009-2016). Adherence was considered when the first treatment was the one recommended by the BCLC. RESULTS: Overall, 708 patients were included. At diagnosis, BCLC stages were as follows: stage 0 4%, A 43%, B 22%, C 9% and D 22%. Overall, 53% of the patients were treated according to BCLC, 24% were undertreated, and 23% overtreated. Adherence to BCLC increased to 63% in subsequent treatments. Independent factors associated with adherence to BCLC were the presence of portal hypertension [odds ratio: 1.63; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-2.39] and BCLC stage C (odds ratio: 0.32; 95% CI: 0.12-0.72). In a multivariable model adjusting for portal hypertension and BCLC stages, adherence to BCLC showed improved survival (hazard ratio: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.52-0.87). CONCLUSION: Adherence to BCLC represents a challenge in the daily practice, with almost half of the patients being treated accordingly, showing that the decision-making process should be tailored to each individual patient.

Fatty liver disease, an emerging etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in Argentina.

AIM: To investigate any changing trends in the etiologies of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Argentina during the last years. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted by 14 regional hospitals starting in 2009 through 2016. All adult patients with newly diagnosed HCC either with pathology or imaging criteria were included. Patients were classified as presenting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) either by histology or clinically, provided that all other etiologies of liver disease were ruled out, fatty liver was present on abdominal ultrasound and alcohol consumption was excluded. Complete follow-up was assessed in all included subjects since the date of HCC diagnosis until death or last medical visit. RESULTS: A total of 708 consecutive adults with HCC were included. Six out of 14 hospitals were liver transplant centers (n = 484). The prevalence of diabetes mellitus was 27.7%. Overall, HCV was the main cause of liver disease related with HCC (37%) including cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients, followed by alcoholic liver disease 20.8%, NAFLD 11.4%, cryptogenic 9.6%, HBV 5.4% infection, cholestatic disease and autoimmune hepatitis 2.2%, and other causes 9.9%. A 6-fold increase in the percentage corresponding to NAFLD-HCC was detected when the starting year, i.e., 2009 was compared to the last one, i.e., 2015 (4.3% vs 25.6%; P < 0.0001). Accordingly, a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus was present in NAFLD-HCC group 61.7% when compared to other than NAFLD-HCC 23.3% (P < 0.0001). Lower median AFP values at HCC diagnosis were observed between NAFLD-HCC and non-NAFLD groups (6.6 ng/mL vs 26 ng/mL; P = 0.02). Neither NAFLD nor other HCC etiologies were associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSION: The growing incidence of NAFLD-HCC documented in the United States and Europe is also observed in Argentina, a confirmation with important Public Health implications.