[Regional inequalities in cervical cancer mortality in Brazil: trends and projections through to 2030]. / Desigualdades regionais na mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero no Brasil: tendências e projeções até o ano 2030.

The scope of this article is to analyze the temporal trends of cervical cancer mortality in Brazil and calculate the projection of mortality through to the year 2030. Deaths that occurred within the 1996-2010 period were analyzed (Mortality Information System). Mortality trend analysis utilized the Joinpoint regression, while Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of projections. For Brazil, decreasing trends were identified (APC = 1.7% CI95%-2.2; -1.1 p < 0.05). The Midwest region presented a significant reduction trend (APC = -1.3% per year), along with the Southeast (APC = -3.3%) and South (APC = -3.9%) regions. The North and Northeast regions presented stable trends. The states of Acre (APC = -6.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -4.1%) presented the most pronounced reduction trends. Analysis of the mortality projections revealed a reduction in mortality rates, starting from the first projected period, with a considerable reduction for the South region. Mortality rates through to the year 2030 are explained, principally, by reductions in the risk of the disease. Cervical cancer mortality presents reducing trends, however these are unequally distributed throughout the country, where the North and Northeast regions present the highest mortality rates.

Desigualdades regionais na mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero no Brasil: tendências e projeções até o ano 2030 / Regional inequalities in cervical cancer mortality in Brazil: trends and projections through to 2030

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a tendência temporal da mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero no Brasil e calcular uma projeção até o ano de 2030. Foram analisados os óbitos ocorridos no Brasil de 1996 a 2010 (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade). Foram realizadas análises das tendências da mortalidade por meio da regressão Joinpoint, e para o cálculo das projeções foi utilizado o Nordpred. Para o Brasil, a tendência é de redução (APC = 1,7% IC95%-2,2; −1,1 p < 0,05), sendo significativa nas regiões centro oeste (APC = −1,3% ao ano), sudeste (APC =−3,3%) e sul (APC = −3,9%). As regiões norte e nordeste apresntam tendência de estabilidade. Os estados do Acre (APC = −6,5%) e Rio Grande do Sul (APC = −4,1%) apresentaram as maiores tendências de redução. Na análise das projeções de mortalidade, haverá uma redução das taxas no Brasil a partir do primeiro período projetado, sendo mais marcante para a região sul. As taxas de mortalidade até o ano 2030 serão explicadas, em maior medida, pela redução dos risco para a doença. A mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero apresenta tendência de redução, todavia está desigualmente distribuída no Brasil, com as regiões norte e nordeste apresentando as maiores taxas.

Abstract The scope of this article is to analyze the temporal trends of cervical cancer mortality in Brazil and calculate the projection of mortality through to the year 2030. Deaths that occurred within the 1996-2010 period were analyzed (Mortality Information System). Mortality trend analysis utilized the Joinpoint regression, while Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of projections. For Brazil, decreasing trends were identified (APC = 1.7% CI95%-2.2; −1.1 p < 0.05). The Midwest region presented a significant reduction trend (APC = −1.3% per year), along with the Southeast (APC = −3.3%) and South (APC = −3.9%) regions. The North and Northeast regions presented stable trends. The states of Acre (APC = −6.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (APC = −4.1%) presented the most pronounced reduction trends. Analysis of the mortality projections revealed a reduction in mortality rates, starting from the first projected period, with a considerable reduction for the South region. Mortality rates through to the year 2030 are explained, principally, by reductions in the riskof the disease. Cervical cancer mortality presents reducing trends, however these are unequally distributed throughout the country, where the North and Northeast regions present the highest mortality rates.

Mortality trends and prediction of HPV-related cancers in Brazil.

Estimation of the size of a cancer group, either through number of cases or extrapolation of past observed trends, is indispensable to the planning of effective assistance measures. The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trends of human papillomavirus-related cancers in Brazil by sex, in the period 1996-2010, and make predictions until the year 2025. All deaths registered as being a result of cervical cancer (ICD-10 code: C53), as well as those caused by vulvar and vaginal (C51 and C52), anal (C21), penile (C60), and oropharyngeal (C02, C09, C10) cancers, were registered. Adjusted rate calculations for each year were used to study the trends through the regression program 'Joinpoint'. Predictions were made using the Nordpred program, utilizing the age-period-cohort model. When analyzing separately by location, it was observed that penile and anal cancers in men presented an increasing trend for the entire period with a statistically significant annual percentage change of 4% for anal cancer and 1.4% for penile cancer. Predictions indicate a reduction in the risk of death due to oropharyngeal cancer in men and cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers in women. It was observed that the increase in the number of deaths occurs mainly because of population changes (size and age structure). In terms of risk, an increase is predicted for anal and penile cancers in men and consequently an increase in mortality rates is observed for these types of cancers, unlike what is expected for human papillomavirus-related cancers in women.

Oropharyngeal Cancer Survival: A Population-Based Study of Patients Diagnosed between 1978 and 2002.

Objective. This paper aims at studying oropharyngeal cancer survival from the Population-Based Cancer Registry of Zaragoza, Spain, for the 1978-2002 period. Methods. The survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the automated calculation method of the Catalan Institute of Oncology was utilized to obtain the relative survival. Results. The oropharyngeal cancer survival rate was 61.3% in the first year and 33.9% in the fifth year. One-year relative survival was 62.2% (CI 95%: 57.4-67.4), and five-year relative survival was 36.6% (CI 95%: 31.8-42.1). Comparison of survival rates by sex revealed statistically significant differences (P value = 0.017) with better survival in women. There were no differences when comparing the three age groups and the three studied time periods 1978-1986, 1987-1994, and 1995-2002. Conclusions. The data suggests that there were no significant changes in oropharyngeal cancer survival in the province of Zaragoza throughout the years.

Laryngeal cancer survival in Zaragoza (Spain): a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: This article aims to study larynx cancer survival from the Population-Based Cancer Registry of Zaragoza, Spain, for the period 1978-2002. METHODS: The survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The automated calculation of the Catalan Institute of Oncology was utilised to obtain the relative survival. RESULTS: The observed survival rate was 84.6% in the first year and 60.9% in the fifth year. The one-year relative survival in both genders was 86.8% (CI 95%: 85.3-88.4) and 70.1% (CI 95%: 67.8-72.4) after five years. Glottic cancer presented a better survival rate than supraglottic and subglottic cancers, and a better survival rate was also observed in younger ages. There were no statistical differences when comparing survival rates by gender and between the periods 1978-1986, 1987-1994 and 1995-2002. CONCLUSIONS: The data suggest there were no significant changes in laryngeal cancer survival in the province of Zaragoza in the period 1978-2002 and that the tumours located in the glottis presented a better prognosis.

[Trends in the incidence of major salivary gland cancer in Spain (1978-2002)]. / Evolución de la incidencia de los cánceres de glándulas salivales mayores en España (1978-2002).

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trend in the incidence rates of major salivary gland cancer in population-based cancer registries in Spain. METHODS: The following Spanish cancer registries with a minimum follow-up period of 10 years were selected: Albacete, Asturias, Granada, Murcia, Navarre, Tarragona and Zaragoza. Adjusted incidence rates were calculated. Joinpoint software was utilized to calculate change estimations in incidence rates for the period 1991-2001. RESULTS: Joinpoint analysis revealed a statistically significant decreasing trend with an annual percent change of -5.3% (95% CI: -8.7 to -1.8). CONCLUSION: The incidence of major salivary gland cancers in Spain was low and a decreasing trend was identified between 1991 and 2001.

[Esophageal cancer incidence and survival in the province of Zaragoza (Spain): a population-based study]. / Incidencia y supervivencia del cáncer de esófago en la provincia de Zaragoza: un estudio de base poblacional.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The objective of the present paper is to study the incidence and survival of esophageal cancer from data of the Population-Based Cancer Registries of Zaragoza. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Crude and adjusted incidence rates were calculated according to sex and the Joinpoint log-linear regression was utilized to calculate trends in adjusted incidence rates for the period 1978-2002. The observed survival was calculated by utilizing the Kaplan-Meier method. For relative survival, the automate calculation of the Oncology Institute of Catalonia was utilized. RESULTS: Joinpoint analysis revealed stability in the incidence rates with Annual Percentage Change of 0.16 (CI 95%: -0.8; 1.1) for men and 0.04 for women (CI 95%: -2.8; 2.8). Observed survival in the period 1978-2002 was 33.2% in the first year and 15.3% in the last year. Relative 1-year survival for males and females was 36.3% (CI 95%: 32.7-40.4) and 23.8% (CI 95%: 20.0-28.4) after 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Data suggest that there were no significant changes in the incidence rates of esophageal cancer in the province of Zaragoza and that survival was low.