RESUMO
BACKGROUND: This retrospective study determined survival responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), comparing mono- (mono) and combo-immunotherapy (combo) in patients with microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) by analyzing quantitative imaging data and clinical factors. METHODS: One hundred fifty patients were included from two centers and divided into training (n = 105) and validation (n = 45) cohorts. Radiologists manually annotated chest-abdomen-pelvis computed tomography and calculated tumor burden. Progression-free survival (PFS) was assessed, and variables were selected through Recursive Feature Elimination. Cutoff values were determined using maximally selected rank statistics to binarize features, forming a risk score with hazard ratio-derived weights. RESULTS: In total, 2258 lesions were annotated with excellent reproducibility. Key variables in the training cohort included: total tumor volume (cutoff: 73 cm3), lesion count (cutoff: 20), age (cutoff: 60) and the presence of peritoneal carcinomatosis. Their respective weights were 1.13, 0.96, 0.91, and 0.38, resulting in a risk score cutoff of 1.36. Low-score patients showed similar overall survival and PFS regardless of treatment, while those with a high-score had significantly worse survivals with mono vs combo (P = 0.004 and P = 0.0001). In the validation set, low-score patients exhibited no significant difference in overall survival and PFS with mono or combo. However, patients with a high-score had worse PFS with mono (P = 0.046). CONCLUSIONS: A score based on total tumor volume, lesion count, the presence of peritoneal carcinomatosis, and age can guide MSI-H mCRC treatment decisions, allowing oncologists to identify suitable candidates for mono and combo ICI therapies.