Measuring protective efficacy and quantifying the impact of drug resistance: A novel malaria chemoprevention trial design and methodology.

BACKGROUND: Recently revised WHO guidelines on malaria chemoprevention have opened the door to more tailored implementation. Countries face choices on whether to replace old drugs, target additional age groups, and adapt delivery schedules according to local drug resistance levels and malaria transmission patterns. Regular routine assessment of protective efficacy of chemoprevention is key. Here, we apply a novel modelling approach to aid the design and analysis of chemoprevention trials and generate measures of protection that can be applied across a range of transmission settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a model of genotype-specific drug protection, which accounts for underlying risk of infection and circulating genotypes. Using a Bayesian framework, we fitted the model to multiple simulated scenarios to explore variations in study design, setting, and participant characteristics. We find that a placebo or control group with no drug protection is valuable but not always feasible. An alternative approach is a single-arm trial with an extended follow-up (>42 days), which allows measurement of the underlying infection risk after drug protection wanes, as long as transmission is relatively constant. We show that the currently recommended 28-day follow-up in a single-arm trial results in low precision of estimated 30-day chemoprevention efficacy and low power in determining genotype differences of 12 days in the duration of protection (power = 1.4%). Extending follow-up to 42 days increased precision and power (71.5%) in settings with constant transmission over this time period. However, in settings of unstable transmission, protective efficacy in a single-arm trial was overestimated by 24.3% if recruitment occurred during increasing transmission and underestimated by 15.8% when recruitment occurred during declining transmission. Protective efficacy was estimated with greater precision in high transmission settings, and power to detect differences by resistance genotype was lower in scenarios where the resistant genotype was either rare or too common. CONCLUSIONS: These findings have important implications for the current guidelines on chemoprevention efficacy studies and will be valuable for informing where these studies should be optimally placed. The results underscore the need for a comparator group in seasonal settings and provide evidence that the extension of follow-up in single-arm trials improves the accuracy of measures of protective efficacy in settings with more stable transmission. Extension of follow-up may pose logistical challenges to trial feasibility and associated costs. However, these studies may not need to be repeated multiple times, as the estimates of drug protection against different genotypes can be applied to different settings by adjusting for transmission intensity and frequency of resistance.

Baseline prevalence of molecular marker of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine resistance in Ebonyi and Osun states, Nigeria: amplicon deep sequencing of dhps-540.

BACKGROUND: Chemoprevention plays an important role in malaria control strategy. Perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) using sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP) is a WHO-approved strategy to combat malaria in young children and may lead to drug pressure. Introducing SP-PMC may therefore be compromised due to the emergence of Plasmodium falciparum resistant to SP, particularly mutation at K540E of the dihydropteroate synthase (dhps) gene. Molecular surveillance of resistance markers can support assessment of antimalarial efficacy and effectiveness. High prevalence of 540E is associated with reduced effectiveness of SP, and areas with more than 50% prevalence are considered unsuitable for intermittent preventative treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) implementation. Assessing 540E prevalence is an important undertaking before implementation of SP-PMC. METHODS: We conducted a rapid surveillance of dhps-540E to assess the suitability of SP as PMC in field studies from Ebonyi and Osun states in Nigeria. We used an in-house developed amplicon deep-sequencing method targeting part of the dhps gene. RESULTS: Our data reveal that 18.56% of individuals evaluated carried the 540E mutation mixed with the WT K540. Mutant variant 540E alone was not found, and 80% of isolates harboured only WT (K540). Clonal analysis of the sequencing data shows a very low proportion of 540E circulating in both states. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that both states are suitable for SP-PMC implementation and, based on this finding, SP-PMC was implemented in Osun in 2022. Continuous monitoring of 540E will be required to ensure the chemoprevention effectiveness of SP in Nigeria.

Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum haplotypes associated with resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine before and after upscaling of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in seven African countries: a genomic surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention is used in 13 countries in the Sahel region of Africa to prevent malaria in children younger than 5 years. Resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to seasonal malaria chemoprevention drugs across the region is a potential threat to this intervention. METHODS: Between December, 2015, and March, 2016, and between December, 2017, and March, 2018, immediately following the 2015 and 2017 malaria transmission seasons, community surveys were done among children younger than 5 years and individuals aged 10-30 years in districts implementing seasonal malaria chemoprevention with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, Niger and The Gambia. Dried blood samples were collected and tested for P falciparum DNA by PCR. Resistance-associated haplotypes of the P falciparum genes crt, mdr1, dhfr, and dhps were identified by quantitative PCR and sequencing of isolates from the collected samples, and survey-weighted prevalence and prevalence ratio between the first and second surveys were estimated for each variant. FINDINGS: 5130 (17·5%) of 29 274 samples from 2016 and 2176 (7·6%) of 28 546 samples from 2018 were positive for P falciparum on quantitative PCR. Among children younger than 5 years, parasite carriage decreased from 2844 of 14 345 samples (19·8% [95% CI 19·2-20·5]) in 2016 to 801 of 14 019 samples (5·7% [5·3-6·1]) in 2018 (prevalence ratio 0·27 [95% CI 0·24-0·31], p<0·0001). Genotyping found no consistent evidence of increasing prevalence of amodiaquine resistance-associated variants of crt and mdr1 between 2016 and 2018. The dhfr haplotype IRN (consisting of 51Ile-59Arg-108Asn) was common at both survey timepoints, but the dhps haplotype ISGEAA (431Ile-436Ser-437Gly-540Glu-581Ala-613Ala), crucial for resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, was always rare. Parasites carrying amodiaquine resistance-associated variants of both crt and mdr1 together with dhfr IRN and dhps ISGEAA occurred in 0·05% of isolates. The emerging dhps haplotype VAGKGS (431Val-436Ala-437Gly-540Lys-581Gly-613Ser) was present in four countries. INTERPRETATION: In seven African countries, evidence of a significant reduction in parasite carriage among children receiving seasonal malaria chemoprevention was found 2 years after intervention scale-up. Combined resistance-associated haplotypes remained rare, and seasonal malaria chemoprevention with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine is expected to retain effectiveness. The threat of future erosion of effectiveness due to dhps variant haplotypes requires further monitoring. FUNDING: Unitaid.

Antimalarial drug resistance markers in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive and HIV-negative adults with asymptomatic malaria infections in Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In Nigeria, indiscriminate use of antimalarial drugs may contribute to the threat of drug resistance, but this has not been evaluated among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS: HIV-positive adults attending a university hospital HIV clinic and HIV-negative adult volunteers from the university hospital community with a positive blood film were treated with artemether-lumefantrine. Parasite DNA from before and after treatment was polymerase chain reaction amplified to identify molecular markers of drug susceptibility. RESULTS: The pfcrt76T genotype was prevalent among both HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants (78.6% and 68.2%, respectively). Three new mutations in the pfmdr1 gene-F73S, S97L and G165R-and the uncommon pfdhps S436F variant were detected, whereas pfdhps K540E and pfdhfr I164L were absent. The A437G allele of pfdhps predominated (62/66 [94%]). The I431 V mutation was found in 19 of 66 pretreatment pfdhps sequences (28.8%). The pfmdr1 86N allele was significantly more common at day 3 post-treatment than at baseline (odds ratio 8.77 [95% confidence interval 1.21 to 380]). CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of continued chloroquine use among HIV-positive individuals. Selection for the pfmdr1 86N after artemether-lumefantrine treatment was observed, indicating a possible threat to antimalarial efficacy in the study area. The complexity of pfdhps haplotypes emphasises the need for careful monitoring of anti-folate susceptibility in Nigeria.