Multivariable prognostic modelling to improve prediction of colorectal cancer recurrence: the PROSPeCT trial.

OBJECTIVE: Improving prognostication to direct personalised therapy remains an unmet need. This study prospectively investigated promising CT, genetic, and immunohistochemical markers to improve the prediction of colorectal cancer recurrence. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This multicentre trial (ISRCTN 95037515) recruited patients with primary colorectal cancer undergoing CT staging from 13 hospitals. Follow-up identified cancer recurrence and death. A baseline model for cancer recurrence at 3 years was developed from pre-specified clinicopathological variables (age, sex, tumour-node stage, tumour size, location, extramural venous invasion, and treatment). Then, CT perfusion (blood flow, blood volume, transit time and permeability), genetic (RAS, RAF, and DNA mismatch repair), and immunohistochemical markers of angiogenesis and hypoxia (CD105, vascular endothelial growth factor, glucose transporter protein, and hypoxia-inducible factor) were added to assess whether prediction improved over tumour-node staging alone as the main outcome measure. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty-six of 448 participants formed the final cohort (226 male; mean 66 ± 10 years. 227 (70%) had ≥ T3 stage cancers; 151 (46%) were node-positive; 81 (25%) developed subsequent recurrence. The sensitivity and specificity of staging alone for recurrence were 0.56 [95% CI: 0.44, 0.67] and 0.58 [0.51, 0.64], respectively. The baseline clinicopathologic model improved specificity (0.74 [0.68, 0.79], with equivalent sensitivity of 0.57 [0.45, 0.68] for high vs medium/low-risk participants. The addition of prespecified CT perfusion, genetic, and immunohistochemical markers did not improve prediction over and above the clinicopathologic model (sensitivity, 0.58-0.68; specificity, 0.75-0.76). CONCLUSION: A multivariable clinicopathological model outperformed staging in identifying patients at high risk of recurrence. Promising CT, genetic, and immunohistochemical markers investigated did not further improve prognostication in rigorous prospective evaluation. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: A prognostic model based on clinicopathological variables including age, sex, tumour-node stage, size, location, and extramural venous invasion better identifies colorectal cancer patients at high risk of recurrence for neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy than stage alone. KEY POINTS: Identification of colorectal cancer patients at high risk of recurrence is an unmet need for treatment personalisation. This model for recurrence, incorporating many patient variables, had higher specificity than staging alone. Continued optimisation of risk stratification schema will help individualise treatment plans and follow-up schedules.

Diagnostic performance of sonographic activity scores for adult terminal ileal Crohn's disease compared to magnetic resonance and histological reference standards: experience from the METRIC trial.

OBJECTIVES: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) are promising intestinal ultrasound (IUS) indices of CD, but studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. We compared SUS-CD and BUSS against histological and magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) reference standards in a post hoc analysis of a prospective multicentre, multireader trial. METHODS: Participants recruited to the METRIC trial (ISRCTN03982913) were studied, including those with available terminal ileal (TI) biopsies. Sensitivity and specificity of SUS-CD and BUSS for TI CD activity were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), from the prospective observations of the original METRIC trial sonographers against the histological activity index (HAI) and the simplified magnetic resonance index of activity (sMARIA). RESULTS: We included 284 patients (median 31.5 years, IQR 23-46) from 8 centres, who underwent IUS and MRE. Of these, 111 patients had available terminal ileal biopsies with HAI scoring. Against histology, sensitivity and specificity for active disease were 79% (95% CI 69-86%) and 50% (31-69%) for SUS-CD, and 66% (56-75%) and 68% (47-84%) for BUSS, respectively. Compared to sMARIA, the sensitivity and specificity for active CD were 81% (74-86%) and 75% (66-83%) for SUS-CD, and 68% (61-74%) and 85% (76-91%) for BUSS, respectively. The sensitivity of SUS-CD was significantly greater than that of BUSS against HAI and sMARIA (p < 0.001), but its specificity was significantly lower than of BUSS against the MRE reference standard (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Particularly when compared to MRE activity scoring, SUS-CD and BUSS are promising tools in a real-world clinical setting. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: When tested using data from a multicentre, multireader diagnostic accuracy trial, the simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) were clinically viable intestinal ultrasound indices that were reasonably sensitive and specific for terminal ileal Crohn's disease, especially when compared to a magnetic resonance reference standard. KEY POINTS: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease and bowel ultrasound score are promising intestinal ultrasound indices of Crohn's disease but to date studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. Compared to histology and the magnetic resonance reference standard in a multicentre, multireader setting, the sensitivity of simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease is significantly greater than that of bowel ultrasound score. The specificity of simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease was significantly lower than that of bowel ultrasound score compared to the magnetic resonance enterography reference standard. The specificity of both indices was numerically higher when the magnetic resonance enterography reference standard was adopted.

Interobserver variation in the interpretation of magnetic resonance enterography in Crohn's disease.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate interobserver variability for diagnosis of disease presence and extent of small bowel and colonic Crohn's disease using MR enterography (MRE). METHODS: Data from the first 73 consecutive patients (mean age 32, 33F, 28 new diagnosis, 45 suspected relapse) recruited to a multicentre, prospective diagnostic accuracy trial evaluating MRE for small bowel Crohn's disease were each read independently by three (from a pool of 20) radiologists. Radiologists documented presence and segmental location of small bowel Crohn's disease and recorded morphological mural/extramural parameters for involved segments. Per patient percentage agreement for disease presence and extent were calculated against an outcome-based construct reference standard (averaged between pairs of readers). Prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted κ (PABAK) was calculated. RESULTS: Agreement for small bowel disease presence for new diagnosis/relapsed patients was 68%(κ = 0.36)/ 78% (κ = 0.56) and 43%(κ = 0.14)/ 53% for disease extent (κ = 0.07), respectively. For disease presence, all three radiologists agreed correctly with the reference standard in 41/59 (69%) of patients with small bowel involvement, and in 8/14 (57%) cases of without small bowel disease. Agreement was highest for multisegment disease, greater than 5 cm in length, with mural thickness>6 mm, and increased mural T2 signal. Agreement for colonic disease presence was 61% (κ = 0.21 fair agreement) for new diagnosis/ 60% (κ = 0.20, slight agreement) for relapsed patients. CONCLUSION: There is a reasonable agreement between radiologists for small bowel disease presence using MRE for newly diagnosed Crohn's disease, and patients with suspected relapse, respectively. Agreement is lower for disease extent. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: There is reasonable agreement between radiologists for small bowel disease presence using MRE for newly diagnosed (68%) Crohn's disease, and patients with suspected relapse (78%). Agreement is lower for disease extent (43% new diagnosis and 53% suspected relapse).

Prevalence and long-term outcome of sub-clinical primary sclerosing cholangitis in patients with ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is closely associated with inflammatory bowel disease, particularly ulcerative colitis (UC), with an increased risk of biliary and colorectal malignancy. We sought to clarify the prevalence, characteristics and long-term outcome of sub-clinical PSC diagnosed by magnetic resonance cholangiogram (MRC) in patients with UC and normal liver biochemistry, with or without colorectal dysplasia (CRD). METHODS: In this prospective case-control study, 70 patients with UC and normal liver function (51 extensive UC, 19 CRD), 28 healthy volunteers (negative controls) and 28 patients with PSC and cholestasis (positive controls) underwent MRC and blood evaluation. MRC scans were interpreted blindly by two radiologists who graded individually, the scans as definitive for PSC, possible for PSC or normal. Clinical outcome was assessed by blood monitoring, abdominal imaging and endoscopic surveillance. RESULTS: 7/51 (14%) with extensive UC and 4/19 (21%) with CRD had biliary abnormalities on MRC consistent with PSC. 7/11 (64%) with sub-clinical PSC had isolated intrahepatic duct involvement. Sub-clinical PSC was associated with advanced age (P = .04), non-smoking (P = .03), pANCA (P = .04), quiescent colitis (P = .02), absence of azathioprine (P = .04) and high-grade CRD (P = .03). Inter-observer (kappa = 0.88) and intra-observer (kappa = 0.96) agreement for MRC interpretation was high. No negative controls were assessed as definite PSC, 4/28 were considered on blinding as possible PSC. During follow-up of sub-clinical PSC (median 10.1(3.1-11.9) years), four patients developed abnormal liver biochemistry, two had radiological progression of PSC and seven developed malignancy, including two biliary and one colorectal carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of sub-clinical PSC appears high in patients with extensive UC and normal liver biochemistry, with or without CRD. Disease progression and malignancy were identified on long-term follow-up. MRC should be considered for all patients with extensive UC or CRD to stratify surveillance.

The value of true axial imaging for CT staging of colonic cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of true axial computed tomography on the accuracy of staging of colonic cancers. METHOD: Fifty consecutive datasets were independently assessed by three radiologists, experienced in colorectal cancer staging. The first read was of standard axial images only. The second read was 6 weeks later and true axial images, through the tumour and perpendicular to its long axis, were included. RESULTS: The overall accuracy for tumour staging was 56% for reader 1, 48% for reader 2 and 64% for reader 3 for standard axial CT. This improved to 72% (p = 0.012), 66% (p = 0.012) and 80% (p = 0.021) when the true axial images were added. For nodal staging, overall accuracy improved from 56% to 70% (p = 0.065) for reader 1, 58% to 76% (p = 0.012) for reader 2 and 60% to 76% (p = 0.021) for reader 3 between reads. CONCLUSION: The accuracy of CT staging of colonic tumours is significantly improved by reviewing images reconstructed in a plane perpendicular to the long axis of the tumour. The accuracy achieved by this analysis is similar to that of CT colonography but avoids the extra complexity, additional cost and increased complications.

Renal subcapsular pseudocyst: findings on MRI.

Pancreatic pseudocysts are common complications of pancreatitis. They may occur in unusual places as a result of spread along the path of least resistance. Penetration of Gerota's fascia and spread into the renal subcapsular space are uncommon. Their appearance on magnetic resonance imaging has not been previously documented. Given the increased use of magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography for the investigation of patients with pancreatitis, the recognition that a complicated renal cyst in this clinical context could represent a benign condition is important.