Association of Elevated Amyloid and Tau Positron Emission Tomography Signal With Near-Term Development of Alzheimer Disease Symptoms in Older Adults Without Cognitive Impairment.

Importance: National Institute on Aging-Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) workgroups have proposed biological research criteria intended to identify individuals with preclinical Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective: To assess the clinical value of these biological criteria to identify older individuals without cognitive impairment who are at near-term risk of developing symptomatic AD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study used data from 4 independent population-based cohorts (PREVENT-AD, HABS, AIBL, and Knight ADRC) collected between 2003 and 2021. Participants were older adults without cognitive impairment with 1 year or more of clinical observation after amyloid ß and tau positron emission tomography (PET). Median clinical follow-up after PET ranged from 1.94 to 3.66 years. Exposures: Based on binary assessment of global amyloid burden (A) and a composite temporal region of tau PET uptake (T), participants were stratified into 4 groups (A+T+, A+T-, A-T+, A-T-). Presence (+) or absence (-) of neurodegeneration (N) was assessed using temporal cortical thickness. Main Outcomes and Measures: Each cohort was analyzed separately. Primary outcome was clinical progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI), identified by a Clinical Dementia Rating score of 0.5 or greater in Knight ADRC and by consensus committee review in the other cohorts. Clinical raters were blind to imaging, genetic, and fluid biomarker data. A secondary outcome was cognitive decline, based on a slope greater than 1.5 SD below the mean of an independent subsample of individuals without cognitive impairment. Outcomes were compared across the biomarker groups. Results: Among 580 participants (PREVENT-AD, 128; HABS, 153; AIBL, 48; Knight ADRC, 251), mean (SD) age ranged from 67 (5) to 76 (6) years across cohorts, with between 55% (137/251) and 74% (95/128) female participants. Across cohorts, 33% to 83% of A+T+ participants progressed to MCI during follow-up (mean progression time, 2-2.72 years), compared with less than 20% of participants in other biomarker groups. Progression further increased to 43% to 100% when restricted to A+T+(N+) individuals. Cox proportional hazard ratios for progression to MCI in the A+T+ group vs other biomarker groups were all 5 or greater. Many A+T+ nonprogressors also showed longitudinal cognitive decline, while cognitive trajectories in other groups remained predominantly stable. Conclusions and Relevance: The clinical prognostic value of NIA-AA research criteria was confirmed in 4 independent cohorts, with most A+T+(N+) older individuals without cognitive impairment developing AD symptoms within 2 to 3 years.

Prevalence Estimates of Amyloid Abnormality Across the Alzheimer Disease Clinical Spectrum.

IMPORTANCE: One characteristic histopathological event in Alzheimer disease (AD) is cerebral amyloid aggregation, which can be detected by biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and on positron emission tomography (PET) scans. Prevalence estimates of amyloid pathology are important for health care planning and clinical trial design. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of amyloid abnormality in persons with normal cognition, subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, or clinical AD dementia and to examine the potential implications of cutoff methods, biomarker modality (CSF or PET), age, sex, APOE genotype, educational level, geographical region, and dementia severity for these estimates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional, individual-participant pooled study included participants from 85 Amyloid Biomarker Study cohorts. Data collection was performed from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020. Participants had normal cognition, subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, or clinical AD dementia. Normal cognition and subjective cognitive decline were defined by normal scores on cognitive tests, with the presence of cognitive complaints defining subjective cognitive decline. Mild cognitive impairment and clinical AD dementia were diagnosed according to published criteria. EXPOSURES: Alzheimer disease biomarkers detected on PET or in CSF. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Amyloid measurements were dichotomized as normal or abnormal using cohort-provided cutoffs for CSF or PET or by visual reading for PET. Adjusted data-driven cutoffs for abnormal amyloid were calculated using gaussian mixture modeling. Prevalence of amyloid abnormality was estimated according to age, sex, cognitive status, biomarker modality, APOE carrier status, educational level, geographical location, and dementia severity using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among the 19 097 participants (mean [SD] age, 69.1 [9.8] years; 10 148 women [53.1%]) included, 10 139 (53.1%) underwent an amyloid PET scan and 8958 (46.9%) had an amyloid CSF measurement. Using cohort-provided cutoffs, amyloid abnormality prevalences were similar to 2015 estimates for individuals without dementia and were similar across PET- and CSF-based estimates (24%; 95% CI, 21%-28%) in participants with normal cognition, 27% (95% CI, 21%-33%) in participants with subjective cognitive decline, and 51% (95% CI, 46%-56%) in participants with mild cognitive impairment, whereas for clinical AD dementia the estimates were higher for PET than CSF (87% vs 79%; mean difference, 8%; 95% CI, 0%-16%; P = .04). Gaussian mixture modeling-based cutoffs for amyloid measures on PET scans were similar to cohort-provided cutoffs and were not adjusted. Adjusted CSF cutoffs resulted in a 10% higher amyloid abnormality prevalence than PET-based estimates in persons with normal cognition (mean difference, 9%; 95% CI, 3%-15%; P = .004), subjective cognitive decline (9%; 95% CI, 3%-15%; P = .005), and mild cognitive impairment (10%; 95% CI, 3%-17%; P = .004), whereas the estimates were comparable in persons with clinical AD dementia (mean difference, 4%; 95% CI, -2% to 9%; P = .18). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study found that CSF-based estimates using adjusted data-driven cutoffs were up to 10% higher than PET-based estimates in people without dementia, whereas the results were similar among people with dementia. This finding suggests that preclinical and prodromal AD may be more prevalent than previously estimated, which has important implications for clinical trial recruitment strategies and health care planning policies.

Characteristics of subjective cognitive decline associated with amyloid positivity.

INTRODUCTION: The evidence for characteristics of persons with subjective cognitive decline (SCD) associated with amyloid positivity is limited. METHODS: In 1640 persons with SCD from 20 Amyloid Biomarker Study cohort, we investigated the associations of SCD-specific characteristics (informant confirmation, domain-specific complaints, concerns, feelings of worse performance) demographics, setting, apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) ε4 carriership, and neuropsychiatric symptoms with amyloid positivity. RESULTS: Between cohorts, amyloid positivity in 70-year-olds varied from 10% to 76%. Only older age, clinical setting, and APOE ε4 carriership showed univariate associations with increased amyloid positivity. After adjusting for these, lower education was also associated with increased amyloid positivity. Only within a research setting, informant-confirmed complaints, memory complaints, attention/concentration complaints, and no depressive symptoms were associated with increased amyloid positivity. Feelings of worse performance were associated with less amyloid positivity at younger ages and more at older ages. DISCUSSION: Next to age, setting, and APOE ε4 carriership, SCD-specific characteristics may facilitate the identification of amyloid-positive individuals.