The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions in South America.

Noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions (referred to collectively as NMHs) are the greatest cause of preventable death, illness, and disability in South America and negatively affect countries' economic performance through their detrimental impacts on labor supply and capital investments. Sound, evidence-based policy-making requires a deep understanding of the macroeconomic costs of NMHs and of their distribution across countries and diseases. The paper estimates and projects the macroeconomic burden of NMHs over the period 2020-2050 in 10 South American countries. We estimate the impact of NMHs on gross domestic product (GDP) through a human capital-augmented production function approach, accounting for mortality and morbidity effects of NMHs on labor supply, for the impact of treatment costs on physical capital accumulation, and for variations in human capital by age. Our central estimates suggest that the overall burden of NMHs in these countries amounts to $7.3 trillion (2022 international $, 3% discount rate, 95% confidence interval: $6.8-$7.8 trillion). Overall, the macroeconomic burden of NMHs is around 4% of total GDP over 2020-2050, with little variation across countries (from 3.2% in Peru to 4.5% in Brazil). In other words, without NMHs, annual GDP over 2020-2050 would be about 4% larger. In most countries, the largest macroeconomic burden is associated with cancers. Results from the paper point to a significant macroeconomic burden of NMHs in South America and provide a strong justification for investment in NMH prevention, early detection, treatment, and formal and informal care.

Estimates and Projections of the Global Economic Cost of 29 Cancers in 204 Countries and Territories From 2020 to 2050.

Importance: Cancers are a leading cause of mortality, accounting for nearly 10 million annual deaths worldwide, or 1 in 6 deaths. Cancers also negatively affect countries' economic growth. However, the global economic cost of cancers and its worldwide distribution have yet to be studied. Objective: To estimate and project the economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: A decision analytical model that incorporates economic feedback in assessing health outcomes associated with the labor force and investment. A macroeconomic model was used to account for (1) the association of cancer-related mortality and morbidity with labor supply; (2) age-sex-specific differences in education, experience, and labor market participation of those who are affected by cancers; and (3) the diversion of cancer treatment expenses from savings and investments. Data were collected on April 25, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Economic cost of 29 cancers across countries and territories. Costs are presented in international dollars at constant 2017 prices. Results: The estimated global economic cost of cancers from 2020 to 2050 is $25.2 trillion in international dollars (at constant 2017 prices), equivalent to an annual tax of 0.55% on global gross domestic product. The 5 cancers with the highest economic costs are tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (15.4%); colon and rectum cancer (10.9%); breast cancer (7.7%); liver cancer (6.5%); and leukemia (6.3%). China and the US face the largest economic costs of cancers in absolute terms, accounting for 24.1% and 20.8% of the total global burden, respectively. Although 75.1% of cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, their share of the economic cost of cancers is lower at 49.5%. The relative contribution of treatment costs to the total economic cost of cancers is greater in high-income countries than in low-income countries. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical modeling study, the macroeconomic cost of cancers was found to be substantial and distributed heterogeneously across cancer types, countries, and world regions. The findings suggest that global efforts to curb the ongoing burden of cancers are warranted.

Noncommunicable Diseases Attributable To Tobacco Use In China: Macroeconomic Burden And Tobacco Control Policies.

Smoking causes health problems for individuals and imposes a sizable macroeconomic burden on countries. As the world's leading tobacco producer and consumer, China is at the epicenter of this health crisis. However, no studies have examined the macroeconomic burden of all relevant noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to tobacco or secondhand smoke exposure. We assessed how tobacco-attributable NCDs affect China's productive capacity and estimated that these diseases would impose a total cost of 16.7 trillion yuan (US$2.3 trillion, in constant 2018 prices) in the period 2015-30, which corresponds to an annual tax of 0.9 percent on aggregate income. Secondhand smoke exposure accounts for 14 percent of the burden. If China raised the tax on cigarettes to 75 percent of their retail price and implemented wide-ranging tobacco-control policies, the Chinese economy could save 7.1 trillion yuan (US$1.0 trillion) for 2015-30-the equivalent of adding a 0.4 percent dividend annually.

The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases associated with air pollution in China.

BACKGROUND: While a few studies have tried to estimate the economic burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) associated with air pollution, most previous studies have methodological limitations. For example, neither the cost of illness approach nor the value of a statistical life approach accounts for economic adjustment mechanisms (i.e., they do not include substitution of labor lost due to an illness with capital or other workers), and neither approach considers disease impact on physical and human capital. Furthermore, since new evidence shows that air pollution is also linked to diabetes, previous studies did not estimate the economic costs of diabetes associated with air pollution. The total economic costs of NCDs associated with air pollution under a comprehensive framework therefore remained unexplored. OBJECTIVES: This study uses a human capital-augmented production function framework to analyze and estimate the macroeconomic impact of NCDs associated with air pollution in China in 1990-2030 and in 2015-2030. It makes several contributions-beyond those of the extant literature-to understanding the economic burden of NCDs associated with air pollution. It does this by accounting for economic adjustment mechanisms and by incorporating human capital into the model. METHODS: In our framework, aggregate output is produced according to a human capital-augmented production function that accounts for the effects of projected disease prevalence. NCDs associated with air pollution affect the aggregate output through three pathways: 1) Mortality effect-when working-age individuals die from a disease, aggregate output decreases because physical capital is an imperfect substitute for the loss of human capital in the production process. 2) Morbidity effect-when working-age individuals suffer from a disease but do not die from it, their contribution to overall output also decreases depending on disease severity; for example, they might work fewer hours or with lower productivity, or they might retire earlier. We also incorporate age-specific human capital to account for education-related productivity differences between members of different cohorts who are differentially affected by NCDs. 3) Treatment cost effect-when households in which members suffer from a disease use part of their savings to cover the out-of-pocket share of their treatment costs, physical capital accumulation diminishes. Our estimates are based on the recently updated Global Burden of Disease epidemiology data, which identify four pathways through which air pollution affects health: cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, cancer, and diabetes. RESULTS: Total losses from NCDs associated with air pollution in China in 1990-2030 are estimated to be $1,137 billion (constant 2010 USD) and in 2015-2030 are estimated to be $499 billion (constant 2010 USD). Cardiovascular diseases account for the highest burden, followed by chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and cancer. Treatment costs account for nearly 30% of the total economic burden of NCDs associated with air pollution. We also find that the share of economic burden associated with treatment costs is highest for diabetes. This is mainly driven by the fact that, on a per case basis, diabetes has a lower health burden than other diseases associated with air pollution. DISCUSSION: The NCDs associated with air pollution impose a large economic burden on China.

Priority setting in health: development and application of a multi-criteria algorithm for the population of New Zealand's Waikato region.

BACKGROUND: Priority setting in a climate of diverse needs and limited resources is one of the most significant challenges faced by health care policymakers. This paper develops and applies a comprehensive multi-criteria algorithm to help determine the relative importance of health conditions that affect a defined population. METHODS: Our algorithm is implemented in the context of the Waikato District Health Board (WDHB) in New Zealand, which serves approximately 10% of the New Zealand population. Strategic priorities of the WDHB are operationalized into five criteria along which the algorithm is structured-scale of disease, household financial impact of disease, health equity, cost-effectiveness, and multimorbidity burden. Using national-level data and published literature from New Zealand, the World Health Organization, and other high-income Commonwealth countries, 25 health conditions in Waikato are identified and mapped to these five criteria. These disease-criteria mappings are weighted with data from an ordered choice survey administered to the general public of the Waikato region. The resulting output of health conditions ranked in order of relative importance is validated against an explicit list of health concerns, provided by the survey respondents. RESULTS: Heart disease and cancerous disorders are assigned highest priority rankings according to both the algorithm and the survey data, suggesting that our model is aligned with the primary health concerns of the general public. All five criteria are weighted near-equal across survey respondents, though the average health equity preference score is 9.2% higher for Maori compared to non-Maori respondents. Older respondents (50 years and above) ranked issues of multimorbidity 4.2% higher than younger respondents. CONCLUSIONS: Health preferences of the general population can be elicited using ordered-choice surveys and can be used to weight data for health conditions across multiple criteria, providing policymakers with a practical tool to inform which health conditions deserve the most attention. Our model connects public health strategic priorities, the health impacts and financial costs of particular health conditions, and the underlying preferences of the general public. We illustrate a practical approach to quantifying the foundational criteria that drive public preferences, for the purpose of relevant, legitimate, and evidence-based priority setting in health.

The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases in the United States: Estimates and projections.

We develop and calibrate a dynamic production function model to assess how noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) will affect U.S. productive capacity in 2015-2050. In this framework, aggregate output is produced according to a human capital-augmented production function that accounts for the effects of projected disease prevalence. NCDs influence the economy through the following pathways: 1) when working-age individuals die of a disease, aggregate output undergoes a direct loss because physical capital can only partially substitute for the loss of human capital in the production process. 2) If working-age individuals suffer from a disease but do not die from it, then, depending on the condition's severity, they tend to be less productive, might work less, or might retire earlier. 3) Current NCD interventions such as medical treatments and prevention require substantial resources. Part of these resources could otherwise be used for productive investments in infrastructure, education, or research and development. This implies a loss of savings across the population and hampers economy-wide physical capital accumulation. Our results indicate a total loss of USD94.9 trillion (in constant 2010 USD) due to all NCDs. Mental health conditions and cardiovascular diseases impose the highest burdens, followed by cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. In per capita terms, the economic burden of all NCDs in 2015-2050 is USD265,000. The total NCD burden roughly corresponds to an annual tax rate of 10.8% on aggregate income.

The economic burden of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions: results for Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru.

OBJECTIVE: We extend the EPIC model of the World Health Organization (WHO) and apply it to analyze the macroeconomic impact of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions in Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru. METHODS: The EPIC model quantifies the impact of NCDs and mental health conditions on aggregate output solely through the effect of chronic conditions on labor supply due to mortality. In contrast, the expanded EPIC-H Plus framework also incorporates reductions in effective labor supply due to morbidity and negative effects of health expenditure on output via the diversion of productive savings and reduced capital accumulation. We apply this methodology to Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru and estimate gross domestic product (GDP) output lost due to four leading NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes) and mental health conditions in these countries from 2015 to 2030. We also estimate losses from all NCDs and mental health conditions combined. RESULTS: Overall, our results show total losses associated with all NCDs and mental health conditions over the period 2015-2030 of US$ 81.96 billion (2015 US$) for Costa Rica, US$ 18.45 billion for Jamaica, and US$ 477.33 billion for Peru. Moderate variation exists in the magnitude of the burdens of diseases for the three countries. In Costa Rica and Peru, respiratory disease and mental health conditions are two leading contributors to lost output, while in Jamaica, cardiovascular disease alone accounts for 20.8% of the total loss, followed by cancer. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that the economic impact of NCDs and mental health conditions is substantial and that interventions to reduce the prevalence of chronic conditions in countries of Latin America and the Caribbean are likely to be highly cost-beneficial.

The economic burden of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions: results for Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru / La carga económica de las enfermedades no transmisibles y la enfermedad mental: resultados para Costa Rica, Jamaica y Perú / A carga econômica das doenças não transmissíveis e condições de saúde mental: resultados para a Costa Rica, Jamaica e Peru

ABSTRACT Objective We extend the EPIC model of the World Health Organization (WHO) and apply it to analyze the macroeconomic impact of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions in Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru. Methods The EPIC model quantifies the impact of NCDs and mental health conditions on aggregate output solely through the effect of chronic conditions on labor supply due to mortality. In contrast, the expanded EPIC-H Plus framework also incorporates reductions in effective labor supply due to morbidity and negative effects of health expenditure on output via the diversion of productive savings and reduced capital accumulation. We apply this methodology to Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru and estimate gross domestic product (GDP) output lost due to four leading NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes) and mental health conditions in these countries from 2015 to 2030. We also estimate losses from all NCDs and mental health conditions combined. Results Overall, our results show total losses associated with all NCDs and mental health conditions over the period 2015-2030 of US$ 81.96 billion (2015 US$) for Costa Rica, US$ 18.45 billion for Jamaica, and US$ 477.33 billion for Peru. Moderate variation exists in the magnitude of the burdens of diseases for the three countries. In Costa Rica and Peru, respiratory disease and mental health conditions are two leading contributors to lost output, while in Jamaica, cardiovascular disease alone accounts for 20.8% of the total loss, followed by cancer. Conclusions These results indicate that the economic impact of NCDs and mental health conditions is substantial and that interventions to reduce the prevalence of chronic conditions in countries of Latin America and the Caribbean are likely to be highly cost-beneficial.

RESUMEN Objetivo Ampliamos el modelo EPIC de la Organización Mundial de la Salud y lo aplicamos para analizar el impacto macroeconómico de las enfermedades no transmisibles y la enfermedad mental en Costa Rica, Jamaica y Perú. Métodos El modelo EPIC cuantifica el impacto de las enfermedades no transmisibles y la enfermedad mental en la producción agregada únicamente a través del efecto que las enfermedades crónicas producen sobre la oferta de trabajo debido a la mortalidad que estas causan. En cambio, el marco ampliado EPIC-H Plus también incorpora reducciones en la oferta efectiva de trabajo debido a la morbilidad y los efectos negativos del gasto en salud sobre la producción a través del desvío del ahorro productivo y la reducción de la acumulación de capital. Aplicamos esta metodología a Costa Rica, Jamaica y Perú y estimamos la pérdida en términos de producto interno bruto debida a cuatro enfermedades no transmisibles (enfermedades cardiovasculares, cáncer, enfermedad respiratoria crónica y diabetes) y a la enfermedad mental en estos países desde 2015 a 2030. También estimamos las pérdidas de todas las enfermedades no transmisibles y la enfermedad mental combinadas. Resultados En general, nuestros resultados muestran pérdidas totales asociadas con todas las enfermedades no transmisibles y la enfermedad mental durante el período 2015-2030 de USD 81,96 mil millones (en dólares de 2015) para Costa Rica, USD 18,45 mil millones para Jamaica y USD 477,33 mil millones para Perú. Existe una variación moderada en la magnitud de la carga de las enfermedades para los tres países. En Costa Rica y Perú, las afecciones respiratorias y la enfermedad mental son los dos factores principales que contribuyen a la pérdida de producción, mientras que en Jamaica la enfermedad cardiovascular sola representa el 20,8% de la pérdida total, seguida por el cáncer. Conclusiones Estos resultados indican que el impacto económico de las enfermedades no transmisibles y la enfermedad mental es considerable y que las intervenciones para reducir la prevalencia de enfermedades crónicas en América Latina y el Caribe probablemente sean muy beneficiosas en relación al costo.

RESUMO Objetivo Estendemos o modelo EPIC da Organização Mundial da Saúde e aplicamos para analisar o impacto macroeconômico das doenças não transmissíveis (DNT) e as condições de saúde mental na Costa Rica, Jamaica e Peru. Métodos O modelo EPIC quantifica o impacto das DNT e condições de saúde mental na produção agregada unicamente através do efeito de condições crônicas na oferta de trabalho devido à mortalidade. Em contrapartida, a estrutura ampliada EPIC-H Plus também incorpora reduções na oferta de trabalho efetiva devido à morbidade e aos efeitos negativos das despesas de saúde na produção através do desvio de poupanças produtivas e redução da acumulação de capital. Aplicamos essa metodologia à Costa Rica, Jamaica e Peru e estimamos a perda de produto interno bruto devido a quatro DNT (doenças cardiovasculares, câncer, doenças respiratórias crônicas e diabetes) e condições de saúde mental nesses países de 2015 a 2030. Também estimamos as perdas de todas as DNT e condições de saúde mental combinadas. Resultados No geral, nossos resultados mostram perdas totais associadas a todas as DNT e condições de saúde mental no período 2015-2030 de USD 81,96 bilhões (USD de 2015) para a Costa Rica, USD 18,45 bilhões para a Jamaica e USD 477,33 bilhões para o Peru. Existe variação moderada na magnitude da carga das doenças para os três países. Na Costa Rica e no Peru, as doenças respiratórias e as condições de saúde mental são dois principais contribuintes para a perda de produção, enquanto na Jamaica, a doença cardiovascular sozinha representa 20,8% da perda total, seguida de câncer. Conclusões Esses resultados indicam que o impacto econômico das doenças não transmissíveis e as condições de saúde mental são substanciais e que as intervenções para reduzir a prevalência de condições crônicas em países da América Latina e do Caribe são benéficos em relação ao custo.

Nutritional Considerations for Healthy Aging and Reduction in Age-Related Chronic Disease.

A projected doubling in the global population of people aged ≥60 y by the year 2050 has major health and economic implications, especially in developing regions. Burdens of unhealthy aging associated with chronic noncommunicable and other age-related diseases may be largely preventable with lifestyle modification, including diet. However, as adults age they become at risk of "nutritional frailty," which can compromise their ability to meet nutritional requirements at a time when specific nutrient needs may be high. This review highlights the role of nutrition science in promoting healthy aging and in improving the prognosis in cases of age-related diseases. It serves to identify key knowledge gaps and implementation challenges to support adequate nutrition for healthy aging, including applicability of metrics used in body-composition and diet adequacy for older adults and mechanisms to reduce nutritional frailty and to promote diet resilience. This review also discusses management recommendations for several leading chronic conditions common in aging populations, including cognitive decline and dementia, sarcopenia, and compromised immunity to infectious disease. The role of health systems in incorporating nutrition care routinely for those aged ≥60 y and living independently and current actions to address nutritional status before hospitalization and the development of disease are discussed.

The Effect of HIV and the Modifying Effect of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) on Body Mass Index (BMI) and Blood Pressure Levels in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: High BMI and blood pressure are leading chronic disease risk factors in South Africa. Longterm effects of HIV and ART on adiposity and blood pressure are poorly understood, and direct comparisons of risk factor trajectories in HIV- versus HIV+ populations are rare. METHODS: In 2003 and 2010, height, weight, and blood pressure were recorded in a study population (n = 505) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (30% adult HIV prevalence). We modeled change in BMI and BP longitudinally in HIV- individuals (n = 315), seroconverters (n = 32), HIV+ patients not on ART (HIV+ART-; n = 52), HIV+ patients on ART for 0-<2 years as of 2010 (HIV+ART0-<2 yrs; n = 18), patients on ART for 2-5 years (HIV+ART2-5yrs; n = 44), and a subgroup with unknown HIV status (n = 44). Difference-in-differences were assessed in reference to the HIV- population. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2010, BMI increased significantly in the HIV- group, by 0.874 (95% CI 0.339, 1.41; p = 0.001), to 30.4. BMI drop was significantly greater in HIV+ART0-<2yrs than in HIV+ART2-5yrs (p = 0.005). DID in BMI in HIV+ART0-<2yrs versus the reference was -5.21 (95% CI -7.53, -2.90; p = 0.001), and DID in HIV+ART2-5yrs versus reference was -1.35 (95% CI -2.89, 0.189; p = 0.086). DID in SBP in HIV+ART-vs HIV- DID was -7.55 mmHg (95% CI -13.2 to -1.90; p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: Short-term ART (0-<2 years) was associated with larger weight loss than either no ART or long-term ART. Once on ART for 2+ years, individuals 'caught up' on weight gain with the HIV- population. Our results showcase the importance of health system readiness to address the burgeoning double burden of disease in South Africa.

Monitoring what governments "give for" and "spend on" vaccine procurement: Vaccine Procurement Assistance and Vaccine Procurement Baseline.

BACKGROUND: The Global Vaccine Action Plan will require, inter alia, the mobilization of financial resources from donors and national governments - both rich and poor. Vaccine Procurement Assistance (VPA) and Vaccine Procurement Baseline (VPB) are two metrics that could measure government performance and track resources in this arena. VPA is proposed as a new subcategory of Official Development Assistance (ODA) given for the procurement of vaccines and VPB is a previously suggested measure of the share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that governments spend on their own vaccine procurement. OBJECTIVE: To determine realistic targets for VPA and VPB. METHODS: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) and World Bank data for 2009 were analyzed to determine the proportions of bilateral ODA from the 23 Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries disbursed (as % of GDP in current US$) for infectious disease control. DAC country contributions to the GAVI Alliance for 2009 were assessed as a measure of multilateral donor support for vaccines and immunization programs. FINDINGS: In 2009, total DAC bilateral ODA was 0.16% of global GDP and 0.25% of DAC GDP. As a percentage of GDP, Norway (0.013%) and United Kingdom (0.0085%) disbursed the greatest proportion of bilateral ODA for infectious disease control, and Norway (0.024%) and Canada (0.008%) made the greatest contributions to the GAVI Alliance. In 2009 0.02% of DAC GDP was US$7.61 billion and 0.02% of the GDP of the poorest 117 countries was US$2.88 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting 0.02% GDP as minimum targets for both VPA and VPB is based on realistic estimates of what both developed and developing countries should spend, and can afford to spend, to jointly ensure procurement of vaccines recommended by national and global bodies. New OECD purpose codes are needed to specifically track ODA disbursed for a) vaccine procurement; and b) immunization programs.

Valuing the broader benefits of dengue vaccination, with a preliminary application to Brazil.

The incidence of dengue has been on the rise since at least the 1960s, bringing greater urgency to the need for a vaccine to prevent the disease. Recent advances suggest that the scientific world is moving closer to an effective dengue vaccine. However, there are concerns that the price of a future vaccine could limit its uptake. High prices, in addition to other challenges, have already weighed negatively in government decisions to include other new vaccines in national immunization programs, e.g., the pneumococcal, rotavirus, and human papillomavirus vaccines. Recent research on the value of vaccination, however, suggests that vaccination confers benefits that are often neglected by traditional economic evaluations. In the case of dengue, commonly overlooked benefits are likely to include reduced spending on outbreak control, averted losses in tourism flows, and avoided productivity losses due to long-term dengue sequelae. Accounting for these and other broader benefits of dengue vaccination could reveal significantly greater economic value and strengthen the case for inclusion of dengue vaccination in national immunization programs. In this article we discuss a framework for the broader value of vaccination and review its application in the context of dengue vaccination for Brazil.

HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact.

The future of immunisation policy, implementation, and financing.

Vaccines have already saved many lives and they have the potential to save many more as increasingly elaborate technologies deliver new and effective vaccines against both infectious diseases--for which there are currently no effective licensed vaccines--such as malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV and non-infectious diseases such as hypertension and diabetes. However, these new vaccines are likely to be more complex and expensive than those that have been used so effectively in the past, and they could have a multifaceted effect on the disease that they are designed to prevent, as has already been seen with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Deciding which new vaccines a country should invest in requires not only sound advice from international organisations such as WHO but also a well informed national immunisation advisory committee with access to appropriate data for local disease burden. Introduction of vaccines might need modification of immunisation schedules and delivery procedures. Novel methods are needed to finance the increasing number of new vaccines that have the potential to save lives in countries that are too poor to afford them. Here, we discuss some options.

The value of vaccination.

Vaccination is most often studied from a scientific, clinical, or epidemiological perspective, and rightly so, for vaccines are meant to improve health outcomes. But these are not the only lenses through which the effects of vaccination programs can be understood. This chapter provides an economic perspective on vaccination programs, detailing in particular a new line of inquiry that makes a case for the importance of vaccination to achieving national economic aims. Research has shown that national spending on childhood vaccination programs does more than just reduce morbidity and mortality in a country: it also promotes national economic growth and poverty reduction. The chapter begins with a look at recent research that demonstrates powerful links that run from population health to economic well-being. Second, it discusses how knowledge of the economic benefits of health fundamentally transforms how we understand the value of vaccination. And third, it provides evidence for the scale of the returns that countries receive when they invest in immunization programs - returns that have not been fully captured by traditional economic analyses.

Relation of food cost to healthfulness of diet among US women.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated the cost of a diet that may prevent cardiovascular disease. High scores on the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) have been associated with lower rates of cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the cost of a dietary pattern that may prevent cardiovascular disease among women residing in the United States. DESIGN: By using food-cost data from the US Department of Agriculture, we explored relations between spending on food and AHEI scores among 78,191 participants in the Nurses' Health Study. By using linear regression, we estimated the change in AHEI score (range: 2.5-87.5) for a $1 increase in spending on various food groups. RESULTS: Study participants in the highest energy-adjusted spending quintile spent 124% as much money each day as those in the lowest quintile. The difference in AHEI scores (10th-90th percentile) between all study participants was 30 index points (Spearman's correlation coefficient between total spending and AHEI = 0.44). The difference in AHEI scores (10th-90th percentile) within each quintile of spending ranged from 25 to 29 index points. Greater spending on nuts, soy and beans, and whole grains was associated with a higher AHEI score. Greater spending on red and processed meats and high-fat dairy was associated with a lower AHEI score. CONCLUSIONS: Although spending more money was associated with a healthier diet, large improvements in diet may be achieved without increased spending. The purchase of plant-based foods may offer the best investment for dietary health.