Predictive Modeling for One-Year Lower Extremity Endovascular Revascularization Failure in Black Persons.

INTRODUCTION: Black persons bear a disproportionate burden of peripheral artery disease (PAD) and experience higher rates of endovascular revascularization failure (ERF) when compared with non-Hispanic White persons. We aimed to identify predictors of ERF in Black persons using predictive modeling. METHODS: This retrospective study included all persons identifying as Black who underwent an initial endovascular revascularization procedure for PAD between 2011 and 2018 at a midwestern tertiary care center. Three predictive models were developed using (1) logistic regression, (2) penalized logistic regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO]), and (3) random forest (RF). Predictive performance was evaluated under repeated cross-validation. RESULTS: Of the 163 individuals included in the study, 113 (63.1%) experienced ERF at 1 y. Those with ERF had significant differences in symptom status (P < 0.001), lesion location (P < 0.001), diabetes status (P = 0.037), and annual procedural volume of the attending surgeon (P < 0.001). Logistic regression and LASSO models identified tissue loss, smoking, femoro-popliteal lesion location, and diabetes control as risk factors for ERF. The RF model identified annual procedural volume, age, PAD symptoms, number of comorbidities, and lesion location as most predictive variables. LASSO and RF models were more sensitive than logistic regression but less specific, although all three methods had an overall accuracy of ≥75%. CONCLUSIONS: Black persons undergoing endovascular revascularization for PAD are at high risk of ERF, necessitating need for targeted intervention. Predictive models may be clinically useful for identifying high-risk patients, although individual predictors of ERF varied by model. Further exploration into these models may improve limb salvage for this population.

Social Determinants of Health Factors and Loss-To-Follow-Up in the Field of Vascular Surgery.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that 22-57% of vascular patients are lost to follow-up (LTF) which is of concern as the Society of Vascular Surgery recommends annual patient follow-up. The purpose of this report was to identify social determinants of health factors (SDoH) and their relationship to LTF in vascular patients. METHODS: The methods employed were a systematic literature review of 29 empirical articles and a retrospective quality improvement report with 27 endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) and thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) patients at the University of Chicago. RESULTS: The systematic literature review resulted in 2,931 articles which were reduced to 29 articles meeting the inclusion criteria. Demographic variables were more frequently cited than SDoH factors, but the most common were smoking, transportation, and socioeconomic status/insurance. Additionally, 176 EVAR and TEVAR patients were called resulting in 27 patients who completed a SDoH questionnaire. Twenty-six percent indicated they had missed at least 1 appointment with the top reasons being work or family responsibilities. Due to limited patient size no statistical analyses were performed, but frequencies of responses to SDoH questions were reported to augment the existing limited literature and guide future research into variables such as one's ability to pay for basics like food or mortgage. CONCLUSIONS: SDoH factors are important yet understudied aspects of endovascular repairs that require more research to understand their impact on vascular surgery follow-up rates and outcomes. Additional research is needed as lack of consideration of such factors may impact the generalizability of existing research and such knowledge may help in informing clinician treatment plans.

The geometric evolution of aortic dissections: Predicting surgical success using fluctuations in integrated Gaussian curvature.

Clinical imaging modalities are a mainstay of modern disease management, but the full utilization of imaging-based data remains elusive. Aortic disease is defined by anatomic scalars quantifying aortic size, even though aortic disease progression initiates complex shape changes. We present an imaging-based geometric descriptor, inspired by fundamental ideas from topology and soft-matter physics that captures dynamic shape evolution. The aorta is reduced to a two-dimensional mathematical surface in space whose geometry is fully characterized by the local principal curvatures. Disease causes deviation from the smooth bent cylindrical shape of normal aortas, leading to a family of highly heterogeneous surfaces of varying shapes and sizes. To deconvolute changes in shape from size, the shape is characterized using integrated Gaussian curvature or total curvature. The fluctuation in total curvature (δK) across aortic surfaces captures heterogeneous morphologic evolution by characterizing local shape changes. We discover that aortic morphology evolves with a power-law defined behavior with rapidly increasing δK forming the hallmark of aortic disease. Divergent δK is seen for highly diseased aortas indicative of impending topologic catastrophe or aortic rupture. We also show that aortic size (surface area or enclosed aortic volume) scales as a generalized cylinder for all shapes. Classification accuracy for predicting aortic disease state (normal, diseased with successful surgery, and diseased with failed surgical outcomes) is 92.8±1.7%. The analysis of δK can be applied on any three-dimensional geometric structure and thus may be extended to other clinical problems of characterizing disease through captured anatomic changes.

Median arcuate ligament syndrome: a cost analysis to determine the economic burden of a rarely diagnosed disease.

Background: Chronic abdominal pain (CAP) is a medical condition resulting in enormous economic burden and healthcare utilization costs. One understudied source of CAP is the median arcuate ligament syndrome (MALS). MALS is often not diagnosed and treated for a variety of reasons, including the fact that MALS is highly comorbid with psychological symptoms and psychiatric disorders similar to CAP. To better inform future work on the study of MALS, we undertook a pilot study to estimate the economic impact and public health burden of this condition. We hypothesized that MALS imposes a significant public health burden. Methods: Pediatric and adult patients enrolled in a prospective study undergoing multidisciplinary evaluation and treatment for MALS at a tertiary care facility were invited to participate in a brief self-report survey, the Direct and Indirect Medical Care Impact of MALS Form, to capture health care resources including procedures, surgeries, health care visits, and absenteeism (school and work). To estimate costs from the Direct and Indirect Medical Care Impact of MALS Form, the medical care usage data self-reported by patients were converted to dollar value utilizing FSC-93 billing data and corresponding current procedural terminology (CPT) codes for procedures and provider visits one year prior to surgery and then following surgery. Descriptive analyses were conducted to characterize the sample in terms of demographics and reported absences from school and work. Results: One hundred and nineteen patients (mean age = 30.9 ± 13.0) completed the questionnaires, yielding a 57% response rate. 82.4% (n = 98) of the participants were female and 90.8% (n = 108) were non-Hispanic/Latine white. The mean and median surgical follow-up periods were 5.3 and 5.4 years, respectively. Overall, median cost of provider and ancillary healthcare provider visits for each patient was (US)$19,119 including the pre-operative and post-operative visits. The mean cost for providers alone was (US)$28,908. Wilcoxon signed-ranks tests indicated that the postoperative missed number of days of school were significantly lower than the pre-surgical number of missed school days (Z = -3.36, p = 0.001). Similarly, there were significantly less missed work-days following surgery than before for the entire sample (Z = -2.86, p = 0.004). Conclusion: Median arcuate ligament syndrome imposes a large economic burden on patients and the healthcare system. The current findings, although reflective of a homogenous population, are adding to a growing body of literature suggesting that healthcare disparities play a role in the low rates of diagnosis and treatment of MALS.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Inpatient Palliative Care for Pediatric Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Racial/ethnic disparities in utilizing inpatient palliative care services are well documented in the adult literature. However, the impact of racial/ethnic disparities in the context of pediatric palliative care is less well understood even in high-acuity patient populations such as stem cell transplant patients. We investigated racial/ethnic differences in the utilization of inpatient palliative care consultations (IPCCs) for pediatric stem cell transplant patients. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Pediatric Health Information System database. A generalized linear mixed effects model was developed to assess demographic and clinical characteristics associated with the likelihood of receiving IPCC. SETTING: Thirty-eight tertiary pediatric hospitals in the United States. PATIENTS: Pediatric patients undergoing stem cell transplantation for any indication from January 2017 to December 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of the 1,193 inpatient encounters studied, 12% (n = 143) included a palliative care consult. IPCC rates varied across hospitals with a median rate of 5.97% (interquartile range, 0.00-20.71). In multivariable analyses, Hispanic/Latinx patients were 59% less likely to receive IPCC compared with non-Hispanic White patients (odds ratio [OR], 0.41; 95% CI, 0.21-0.78). This difference persisted after adjusting for all other sociodemographic and clinical factors. In terms of the other clinical characteristics, having a malignant condition and mechanical ventilation were associated with significantly increased odds of receiving IPCC for the entire cohort (OR Malignancy: 1.93; 95% CI: 1.07-3.51; OR Mechanical Ventilation: 2.37; 95% CI: 1.36-4.13). The remainder of the variables were not found to be significantly associated with IPCC. CONCLUSIONS: Racial and ethnic differences exist in the likelihood of receiving palliative care consultations among hospitalized pediatric stem cell transplant recipients. Evaluating the impact of systemic racism and social determinants on palliative care medicine as well as standardizing early integration of IPCC may potentially mitigate disparities in this population.

Novel Trauma Composite Score is superior to Injury Severity Score in predicting mortality across all ages.

BACKGROUND: Injury Severity Score (ISS) is a widely used metric for trauma research and center verification; however, it does not account for age-related physiologic parameters. We hypothesized that a novel age-based injury severity metric would better predict mortality. METHODS: Adult patients (≥18 years) sustaining blunt trauma (BT) or penetrating trauma (PT) were abstracted from the 2010 to 2016 National Trauma Data Bank. Admission vitals, Glasgow Coma Scale, ISS, mechanism, and outcomes were analyzed. Patients with incomplete/non-physiologic vital signs were excluded. For each age: (1) a cut point analysis was used to determine the ISS with the highest specificity and sensitivity for predicting mortality and (2) a linear discriminant analysis was performed using ISS, ISS greater than 16, Trauma and Injury Severity Score, and Revised Trauma Scale to compare each scoring system's mortality prediction. A novel injury severity metric, the trauma component score (TCS), was developed for each age using significant (p < 0.05) variables selected from Abbreviated Injury Scale scores, Glasgow Coma Scale, vital signs, and gender. Receiver operator curves were developed and the areas under the curve were compared between the TCS and other systems. RESULTS: There 777,794 patients studied (BT, 91.1%; PT, 8.9%). Blunt trauma patients were older (53.6 ± 21.3 years vs. 34.4 ± 13.8 years), had higher ISS scores (11.1 ± 8.5 vs. 8.5 ± 8.9), and lower mortality (2.9% vs. 3.4%) than PT patients (p < 0.05). When assessing the entire PT and BT cohort the optimal ISS cut point was 16. The optimal ISS was between 20 and 25 for BT younger than 70 years. For those older than 70 years, the optimal BT ISS steadily declined as age increased PT's cut point was 16 or less for all ages assessed. When the injury metrics were compared by area under the curve, our novel TCS more accurately predicted mortality across all ages in both BT and PT (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Injury Severity Score is a poor mortality predictor in older patients and those sustaining penetrating trauma. The age-based TCS is a superior metric for mortality prediction across all ages. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Clinical outcomes, Level IV.

Conducting Biobehavioral Research in Patients With Advanced Cancer: Recruitment Challenges and Solutions.

Despite significant advances in cancer treatment and symptom management interventions over the last decade, patients continue to struggle with cancer-related symptoms. Adequate baseline and longitudinal data are crucial for designing interventions to improve patient quality of life and reduce symptom burden; however, recruitment of patients with advanced cancer in longitudinal research is difficult. Our purpose is to describe challenges and solutions to recruitment of patients with advanced cancer in two biobehavioral research studies examining cancer-related symptoms. Study 1: Symptom data and peripheral blood for markers of inflammation were collected from newly diagnosed patients receiving chemotherapy on the first day of therapy and every 3-4 weeks for up to 6 months. Study 2: Symptom data, blood, and skin biopsies were collected from cancer patients taking epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors at specific time points over 4 months. Screening and recruitment results for both studies are summarized. Timing informed consent with baseline data collection prior to treatment initiation was a significant recruitment challenge for both the studies. Possible solutions include tailoring recruitment to fit clinic needs, increasing research staff availability during clinic hours, and adding recruitment sites. Identifying solutions to these challenges will permit the conduct of studies that may lead to identification of factors contributing to variability in symptoms and development of tailored patient interventions for patients with advanced cancer.