Development and external validation of a nomogram and online tool to predict bowel dysfunction following restorative rectal cancer resection: the POLARS score.

OBJECTIVE: Bowel dysfunction is common following a restorative rectal cancer resection, but symptom severity and the degree of quality of life impairment is highly variable. An internationally validated patient-reported outcome measure, Low Anterior Resection Syndrome (LARS) score, now enables these symptoms to be measured. The study purpose was: (1) to develop a model that predicts postoperative bowel function; (2) externally validate the model and (3) incorporate these findings into a nomogram and online tool in order to individualise patient counselling and aid preoperative consent. DESIGN: Patients more than 1 year after curative restorative anterior resection (UK, median 54 months; Denmark (DK), 56 months since surgery) were invited to complete The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire - Core 30 version3 (EORTC QLQ-C30 v3), LARS and Wexner incontinence scores. Demographics, tumour characteristics, preoperative/postoperative treatment and surgical procedures were recorded. Using transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, risk factors for bowel dysfunction were independently assessed by advanced linear regression shrinkage techniques for each dataset (UK:DK). RESULTS: Patients in the development (UK, n=463) and validation (DK, n=938) datasets reported mean (SD) LARS scores of 26 (11) and 24 (11), respectively. Key predictive factors for LARS were: age (at surgery); tumour height, total versus partial mesorectal excision, stoma and preoperative radiotherapy, with satisfactory model calibration and a Mallow's Cp of 7.5 and 5.5, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Pre-Operative LARS score (POLARS) is the first nomogram and online tool to predict bowel dysfunction severity prior to anterior resection. Colorectal surgeons, gastroenterologist and nurse specialists may use POLARS to help patients understand their risk of bowel dysfunction and to preoperatively highlight patients who may require additional postoperative support.

Hodgkin disease (1973-2002): long-term survival and cure fractions.

The Nottinghamshire Lymphoma Registry contains the details of all patients diagnosed with lymphoma (since 1 January 1973) within a defined geographical area with a stable population of 1.1 million. The aim of this study was to investigate the relative survival and estimate the cure fraction for patients with Hodgkin disease (HD) using various cure fraction models. Five- and 10-year survival was estimated in comparison to the general population of the same age, gender and year of diagnosis. Relative survival probabilities at 10 years were 52.3% for the 1973-1982 cohort, 67.8% (1983-1992) and 75.7% (1993-2002). The estimated cured fraction (π) was 45%, 65% and 75%, respectively, for the same cohorts. There was very little excess mortality after 4 years from treatment. The prognosis of patients with HD has improved progressively within a defined unselected population over this 30-year period. In the 1993-2002 cohort the prognosis after 4 years of treatment is almost the same as for a normal population.

Metachronous colorectal cancer: a competing risks analysis with consideration for a stratified approach to surveillance colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of metachronous cancer will become an important clinical consideration as the life expectancy of the population increases and as rates of curative resection improve. OBJECTIVE: To assess the pattern of metachronous cancer development following curative resection of colorectal cancer in an unselected patient population offered postoperative colonoscopic surveillance. METHOD: Prospective clinical follow-up after curative colorectal cancer resection and surveillance colonoscopy with or without polypectomy in accordance with the national guidelines. Actuarial analysis and competing risk analysis were performed to account for death and recurrence and to stratify for age, gender, stage, and tumor site. RESULTS: Five hundred thirty-eight patients with median follow-up 4 years 2 month (0-16) years. Fifteen patients (3%) developed metachronous cancer, at a median time interval of 90 months from primary resection. Thirteen metachronous cancer patients (87%, 13/15) underwent one to five surveillance colonoscopies: nine patients were asymptomatic at time of diagnosis of metachronous cancer. Competing risks analysis suggests that the adjusted cumulative incidence in males aged 55 is 4% at 10 years compared with 1% in females aged 85 years old. CONCLUSIONS: A patient aged under 65 at the time of the primary curative resection carries a 2% 5-year risk of metachronous cancer, implying that 3 year surveillance colonoscopy is justified. Whereas patients aged over 75 carry less than a 2% 10-year risk, implying that it is seldom warranted to repeat the colonoscopy more frequently than every 5 years. A stratified approach to the frequency of surveillance colonoscopy requires further consideration.