Diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests to screen for at-risk MASH-An individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is a need to reduce the screen failure rate (SFR) in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) clinical trials (MASH+F2-3; MASH+F4) and identify people with high-risk MASH (MASH+F2-4) in clinical practice. We aimed to evaluate non-invasive tests (NITs) screening approaches for these target conditions. METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis for the performance of NITs against liver biopsy for MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4. Index tests were the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, liver stiffness measured using vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and thresholds including those that achieved 34% SFR were reported. RESULTS: We included 2281 unique cases. The prevalence of MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4 was 31%, 24% and 7%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-4 were .78, .75, .68 and .57 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-3 were .73, .67, .60, .58 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F4 were .79, .84, .81, .76 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. The sequential combination of FIB-4 and LSM-VCTE for the detection of MASH+F2-3 with threshold of .7 and 3.48, and 5.9 and 20 kPa achieved SFR of 67% and sensitivity of 60%, detecting 15 true positive cases from a theoretical group of 100 participants at the prevalence of 24%. CONCLUSIONS: Sequential combinations of NITs do not compromise diagnostic performance and may reduce resource utilisation through the need of fewer LSM-VCTE examinations.

Plasma ALS and Gal-3BP differentiate early from advanced liver fibrosis in MASLD patients.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is estimated to affect 30% of the world's population, and its prevalence is increasing in line with obesity. Liver fibrosis is closely related to mortality, making it the most important clinical parameter for MASLD. It is currently assessed by liver biopsy - an invasive procedure that has some limitations. There is thus an urgent need for a reliable non-invasive means to diagnose earlier MASLD stages. METHODS: A discovery study was performed on 158 plasma samples from histologically-characterised MASLD patients using mass spectrometry (MS)-based quantitative proteomics. Differentially abundant proteins were selected for verification by ELISA in the same cohort. They were subsequently validated in an independent MASLD cohort (n = 200). RESULTS: From the 72 proteins differentially abundant between patients with early (F0-2) and advanced fibrosis (F3-4), we selected Insulin-like growth factor-binding protein complex acid labile subunit (ALS) and Galectin-3-binding protein (Gal-3BP) for further study. In our validation cohort, AUROCs with 95% CIs of 0.744 [0.673 - 0.816] and 0.735 [0.661 - 0.81] were obtained for ALS and Gal-3BP, respectively. Combining ALS and Gal-3BP improved the assessment of advanced liver fibrosis, giving an AUROC of 0.796 [0.731. 0.862]. The {ALS; Gal-3BP} model surpassed classic fibrosis panels in predicting advanced liver fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Further investigations with complementary cohorts will be needed to confirm the usefulness of ALS and Gal-3BP individually and in combination with other biomarkers for diagnosis of liver fibrosis. With the availability of ELISA assays, these findings could be rapidly clinically translated, providing direct benefits for patients.

Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography Scores to Predict Liver-Related Events in Steatotic Liver Disease.

Importance: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis. Objective: To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests. Results: A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

Primary hypocholesterolemia is associated with an increased risk of hepatic complications in the general population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Beyond cardiovascular disease protection, the health consequences of very low concentrations of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) remain a matter of debate. In primary hypobetalipoproteinemia (HBL), liver steatosis and cirrhosis have occasionally been reported. Here, we aimed to investigate the association between HBL and the risk of hepatic complications (cirrhosis complications and/or primary liver cancer) in the general population. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted in the French population-based cohort CONSTANCES. Participants with primary HBL (LDL-C <5th percentile for age and sex, [HBL]) were compared with those with normal LDL-C concentrations (40th-60th percentile, [Control]). Participants on lipid-lowering therapies were excluded. For hepatic complications, follow-up events were compared by calculating the incidence density ratio (IDR). The same analyses were replicated in the UK Biobank (UKBB) cohort. RESULTS: In the CONSTANCES and UKBB cohorts, 34,653 and 94,666 patients were analyzed, with median ages of 45 and 56 years, mean LDL-C concentrations (HBL vs. control) of 71 vs. 128 mg/dl and 86 vs. 142 mg/dl, and mean follow-up durations of 5.0 and 11.5 years, respectively. The HBL group presented a higher incidence of hepatic complications than the control group: 0.32/ vs. 0.07/1,000 person-years (IDR = 4.50, 95% CI 1.91-10.6) in CONSTANCES, and 0.69/ vs. 0.21/1,000 person-years (IDR = 3.27, 95% CI 2.63-4.06) in the UKBB. This risk proved to be independent of classic risk factors for liver disease (obesity, alcohol consumption, diabetes, viral hepatitis), including in a 5-year landmark analysis excluding early events. Sensitivity analyses based on apoliprotein-B levels (instead of LDL-C levels) or genetically defined HBL showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: HBL is associated with a markedly increased risk of hepatic complications. HBL must be considered as a substantial independent risk factor for liver diseases which justifies specific prevention and screening. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Hypobetalipoproteinemia (HBL) is a lipid disorder characterized by permanent, inherited low levels (below the 5th percentile) of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. While HBL is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events, some studies suggest that it may be associated with a potential risk of hepatic steatosis and hepatic complications. Here, we studied the association between HBL and hepatic complications (defined as cirrhosis complications and/or primary liver cancer) in two populations of several hundred thousand people, both in France (CONSTANCES cohort) and the United Kingdom (UKBB). The results show that HBL is associated with a significant and independent excess risk of hepatic complications, including primary liver cancer. Thus, in people with HBL, the value of regular liver monitoring must be studied.

Artificial intelligence-based pathology as a biomarker of sensitivity to atezolizumab-bevacizumab in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicentre retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical benefits of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (atezolizumab-bevacizumab) are observed only in a subset of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and the development of biomarkers is needed to improve therapeutic strategies. The atezolizumab-bevacizumab response signature (ABRS), assessed by molecular biology profiling techniques, has been shown to be associated with progression-free survival after treatment initiation. The primary objective of our study was to develop an artificial intelligence (AI) model able to estimate ABRS expression directly from histological slides, and to evaluate if model predictions were associated with progression-free survival. METHODS: In this multicentre retrospective study, we developed a model (ABRS-prediction; ABRS-P), which was derived from the previously published clustering-constrained attention multiple instance learning (or CLAM) pipeline. We trained the model fit for regression analysis using a multicentre dataset from The Cancer Genome Atlas (patients treated by surgical resection, n=336). The ABRS-P model was externally validated on two independent series of samples from patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (a surgical resection series, n=225; and a biopsy series, n=157). The predictive value of the model was further tested in a series of biopsy samples from a multicentre cohort of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with atezolizumab-bevacizumab (n=122). All samples in the study were from adults (aged ≥18 years). The validation sets were sampled between Jan 1, 2008, to Jan 1, 2023. For the multicentre validation set, the primary objective was to assess the association of high versus low ABRS-P values, defined relative to cross-validation median split thresholds in the first biopsy series, with progression-free survival after treatment initiation. Finally, we performed spatial transcriptomics and matched prediction heatmaps with in situ expression profiles. FINDINGS: Of the 840 patients sampled, 641 (76%) were male and 199 (24%) were female. Across the development and validation datasets, hepatocellular carcinoma risk factors included alcohol intake, hepatitis B and C virus infections, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Using cross-validation in the development series, the mean Pearson's correlation between ABRS-P values and ABRS score (mean expression of ABRS genes) was r=0·62 (SD 0·09; mean p<0·0001, SD<0·0001). The ABRS-P generalised well on the external validation series (surgical resection series, r=0·60 [95% CI 0·51-0·68], p<0·0001; biopsy series, r=0·53 [0·40-0·63], p<0·0001). In the 122 patients treated with atezolizumab-bevacizumab, those with ABRS-P-high tumours (n=74) showed significantly longer median progression-free survival than those with ABRS-P-low tumours (n=48) after treatment initiation (12 months [95% CI 7-not reached] vs 7 months [4-9]; p=0·014). Spatial transcriptomics showed significantly higher ABRS score, along with upregulation of various other immune effectors, in tumour areas with high ABRS-P values versus areas with low ABRS-P values. INTERPRETATION: Our study indicates that AI applied on hepatocellular carcinoma digital slides is able to serve as a biomarker for progression-free survival in patients treated with atezolizumab-bevacizumab. This approach could be used in the development of inexpensive and fast biomarkers for targeted therapies. The combination of AI heatmaps with spatial transcriptomics provides insight on the molecular features associated with predictions. This methodology could be applied to other cancers or diseases and improve understanding of the biological mechanisms that drive responses to treatments. FUNDING: Institut National du Cancer, Fondation ARC, China Scholarship Council, Ligue Contre le Cancer du Val de Marne, Fondation de l'Avenir, Ipsen, and Fondation Bristol Myers Squibb Pour la Recherche en Immuno-Oncologie.

Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis (LITMUS): Assessment & validation of imaging modality performance across the NAFLD spectrum in a prospectively recruited cohort study (the LITMUS imaging study): Study protocol.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the liver manifestation of the metabolic syndrome with global prevalence reaching epidemic levels. Despite the high disease burden in the population only a small proportion of those with NAFLD will develop progressive liver disease, for which there is currently no approved pharmacotherapy. Identifying those who are at risk of progressive NAFLD currently requires a liver biopsy which is problematic. Firstly, liver biopsy is invasive and therefore not appropriate for use in a condition like NAFLD that affects a large proportion of the population. Secondly, biopsy is limited by sampling and observer dependent variability which can lead to misclassification of disease severity. Non-invasive biomarkers are therefore needed to replace liver biopsy in the assessment of NAFLD. Our study addresses this unmet need. The LITMUS Imaging Study is a prospectively recruited multi-centre cohort study evaluating magnetic resonance imaging and elastography, and ultrasound elastography against liver histology as the reference standard. Imaging biomarkers and biopsy are acquired within a 100-day window. The study employs standardised processes for imaging data collection and analysis as well as a real time central monitoring and quality control process for all the data submitted for analysis. It is anticipated that the high-quality data generated from this study will underpin changes in clinical practice for the benefit of people with NAFLD. Study Registration: clinicaltrials.gov: NCT05479721.

Associations between perfluoroalkyl substances and the severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and the determinants driving its severity remain to be elucidated. Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are synthetic chemical compounds. They are used in commonplace products and persistent in water, soil and the human body. In vitro and animal studies suggest a pathogenic role for PFAS in metabolic diseases such as NAFLD. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the association between NAFLD severity and serum PFAS concentrations in humans. METHODS: One hundred biopsy-proven NAFLD patients were included with a well-balanced distribution between the different stages of severity: 25 patients with simple steatosis, 25 with early non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH and F0-F1 fibrosis), 33 with fibrotic NASH (NASH and F2-F3 fibrosis), and 17 with cirrhotic NASH (NASH and F4 fibrosis). Liver histological features were evaluated according to the NASH Clinical Research Network classification. Seventeen PFAS were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry on serum samples stored at -80 °C. RESULTS: The median age was 60 years, 61 % of patients were male, 46 % had diabetes and the median body mass index (BMI) was 32 kg/m2. Long-chain PFAS were associated with steatosis grade (p = 0.03). Among the nine PFAS detected in > 50 % of the patients, Perfluoro-n-heptanoic acid (PFHpA) showed significantly higher concentrations in grade 3 steatosis versus grade 1 (p = 0.02). Perfluoro-n-dodecanoic acid (PFDoA) concentrations were higher in patients with significant fibrosis (p = 0.04) and PFHpA in patients with advanced fibrosis (p = 0.02). The association between PFHpA and steatosis grade remained significant in multivariate analysis adjusted for age, gender, BMI, diabetes presence and dyslipidemia (p = 0.004). DISCUSSION: Our study showed a significant association between PFHpA and liver steatosis in NAFLD. According to data available in the literature, PFHpA could be implicated in liver steatosis through ß-oxidation and biosynthesis of fatty acids.

Adlercreutzia equolifaciens Is an Anti-Inflammatory Commensal Bacterium with Decreased Abundance in Gut Microbiota of Patients with Metabolic Liver Disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects about 20-40% of the adult population in high-income countries and is now a leading indication for liver transplantation and can lead to hepatocellular carcinoma. The link between gut microbiota dysbiosis and NAFLD is now clearly established. Through analyses of the gut microbiota with shotgun metagenomics, we observe that compared to healthy controls, Adlercreutzia equolifaciens is depleted in patients with liver diseases such as NAFLD. Its abundance also decreases as the disease progresses and eventually disappears in the last stages indicating a strong association with disease severity. Moreover, we show that A. equolifaciens possesses anti-inflammatory properties, both in vitro and in vivo in a humanized mouse model of NAFLD. Therefore, our results demonstrate a link between NAFLD and the severity of liver disease and the presence of A. equolifaciens and its anti-inflammatory actions. Counterbalancing dysbiosis with this bacterium may be a promising live biotherapeutic strategy for liver diseases.

Practical diagnosis of cirrhosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease using currently available non-invasive fibrosis tests.

Unlike for advanced liver fibrosis, the practical rules for the early non-invasive diagnosis of cirrhosis in NAFLD remain not well defined. Here, we report the derivation and validation of a stepwise diagnostic algorithm in 1568 patients with NAFLD and liver biopsy coming from four independent cohorts. The study algorithm, using first the elastography-based tests Agile3+ and Agile4 and then the specialized blood tests FibroMeterV3G and CirrhoMeterV3G, provides stratification in four groups, the last of which is enriched in cirrhosis (71% prevalence in the validation set). A risk prediction chart is also derived to allow estimation of the individual probability of cirrhosis. The predicted risk shows excellent calibration in the validation set, and mean difference with perfect prediction is only -2.9%. These tools improve the personalized non-invasive diagnosis of cirrhosis in NAFLD.

Results from a new efficacy and safety analysis of the REGENERATE trial of obeticholic acid for treatment of pre-cirrhotic fibrosis due to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) is a first-in-class farnesoid X receptor agonist and antifibrotic agent in development for the treatment of pre-cirrhotic liver fibrosis due to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We aimed to validate the original 18-month liver biopsy analysis from the phase III REGENERATE trial of OCA for the treatment of NASH with a consensus panel analysis, provide additional histology data in a larger population, and evaluate safety from >8,000 total patient-years' exposure with nearly 1,000 participants receiving study drug for >4 years. METHODS: Digitized whole-slide images were evaluated independently by panels of three pathologists using the NASH Clinical Research Network scoring system. Primary endpoints were (1) ≥1 stage improvement in fibrosis with no worsening of NASH or (2) NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis. Safety was assessed by laboratory values and adverse events. RESULTS: Prespecified efficacy analyses included 931 participants. The proportion of participants achieving a ≥1 stage improvement in fibrosis with no worsening of NASH was 22.4% for OCA 25 mg vs. 9.6% for placebo (p <0.0001). More participants receiving OCA 25 mg vs. placebo achieved NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis (6.5% vs. 3.5%, respectively; p = 0.093). Histology data in a larger population of 1,607 participants supported these results. Safety data included 2,477 participants. The incidence of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs), serious TEAEs, and deaths was not substantively different across treatment groups. Pruritus was the most common TEAE. Rates of adjudicated hepatic, renal, and cardiovascular events were low and similar across treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm the antifibrotic effect of OCA 25 mg. OCA was generally well tolerated over long-term dosing. These data support a positive benefit:risk profile in patients with pre-cirrhotic liver fibrosis due to NASH. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) often have liver scarring (fibrosis), which causes an increased risk of liver-related illness and death. Preventing progression of fibrosis to cirrhosis or reversing fibrosis are the main goals of drug development for NASH. In this clinical trial of obeticholic acid (OCA) in patients with NASH (REGENERATE), we reaffirmed our previous results demonstrating that OCA was superior to placebo in improving fibrosis using a more rigorous consensus panel analysis of liver biopsies taken at month 18. We also showed that OCA treatment resulted in dose-dependent reductions of serum liver biochemistries and liver stiffness measurements compared with placebo, even in participants in whom histologic fibrosis did not change at 18 months, providing evidence that the benefit of OCA extends beyond what is captured by the ordinal NASH CRN scoring system. OCA was well tolerated with a favorable safety profile supporting a positive benefit: risk profile in patients with pre-cirrhotic liver fibrosis due to NASH.

The NAFLD burden on mortality and morbidities in general population: A community-based longitudinal study (NASH-CO study).

BACKGROUND: The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on morbidity and mortality has yet to be documented at the general population level. This study aimed to assess whether NAFLD was associated with morbidities and mortality and to estimate its impact on health status and mortality. METHODS: The study population consisted of 137 206 participants from Constances cohort. Non-invasive diagnosis of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis was performed using the fatty liver index and Forns index, respectively. Constances data were linked to health care and hospitalization data to identify liver-related events, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), extrahepatic cancers (EHC), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The prevalence of NAFLD was 18.3% in subjects without other chronic liver diseases, among whom 2.7% had fibrosis. NAFLD after IPTW-weighted remained associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.57), hepatic-related complications (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.99-3.29), CVD (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.30-1.55), EHC (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01-1.28) and CKD (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.53-2.07) compared to those without chronic liver diseases risk factors (Non-NAFLD). In the trend analysis over the study period of inclusion and compared to Non-NAFLD, NAFLD has shown a fastest growing cause of hepatic events (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.07-1.76 per year), CVD (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.12), CKD (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.25), and death (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.39-1.50). CONCLUSION: This large community-based cohort showed that NAFLD was associated with excess morbidity and mortality and demonstrated a fastest-growing trend.

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs ≥20 kPa; FIB-4: <1·3 vs 1·3 to ≤2·67 vs >2·67; NFS: <-1·455 vs -1·455 to ≤0·676 vs >0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226. FINDINGS: Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression. INTERPRETATION: Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases. FUNDING: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2.

An international Delphi consensus statement on metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and risk of chronic kidney disease.

Background: With the rising global prevalence of fatty liver disease related to metabolic dysfunction, the association of this common liver condition with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become increasingly evident. In 2020, the more inclusive term metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was proposed to replace the term non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The observed association between MAFLD and CKD and our understanding that CKD can be a consequence of underlying metabolic dysfunction support the notion that individuals with MAFLD are at higher risk of having and developing CKD compared with those without MAFLD. However, to date, there is no appropriate guidance on CKD in individuals with MAFLD. Furthermore, there has been little attention paid to the link between MAFLD and CKD in the Nephrology community. Methods and Results: Using a Delphi-based approach, a multidisciplinary panel of 50 international experts from 26 countries reached a consensus on some of the open research questions regarding the link between MAFLD and CKD. Conclusions: This Delphi-based consensus statement provided guidance on the epidemiology, mechanisms, management and treatment of MAFLD and CKD, as well as the relationship between the severity of MAFLD and risk of CKD, which establish a framework for the early prevention and management of these two common and interconnected diseases.

Validation of the Blood Test MACK-3 for the Noninvasive Diagnosis of Fibrotic Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis: An International Study With 1924 Patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Drug development in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is hampered by a high screening failure rate that reaches 60% to 80% in therapeutic trials, mainly because of the absence of fibrotic NASH on baseline liver histology. MACK-3, a blood test including 3 biomarkers (aspartate aminotransferase, homeostasis model assessment, and cytokeratin 18), recently was developed for the noninvasive diagnosis of fibrotic NASH. We aimed to validate the diagnostic accuracy of this noninvasive test in an international multicenter study. METHODS: A total of 1924 patients with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from 10 centers in Asia, Australia, and Europe were included. The blood test MACK-3 was calculated for all patients. FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase score (FAST), an elastography-based test for fibrotic NASH, also was available in a subset of 655 patients. Fibrotic NASH was defined as the presence of NASH on liver biopsy with a Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Activity Score of 4 or higher and fibrosis stage of F2 or higher according to the NASH Clinical Research Network scoring system. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristic of MACK-3 for fibrotic NASH was 0.791 (95% CI 0.768-0.814). Sensitivity at the previously published MACK-3 threshold of less than 0.135 was 91% and specificity at a greater than 0.549 threshold was 85%. The MACK-3 area under the receiver operating characteristic was not affected by age, sex, diabetes, or body mass index. MACK-3 and FAST results were well correlated (Spearman correlation coefficient, 0.781; P < .001). Except for an 8% higher rate of patients included in the grey zone, MACK-3 provided similar accuracy to that of FAST. Both tests included 27% of patients in their rule-in zone, with 85% specificity and 35% false positives (screen failure rate). CONCLUSIONS: The blood test MACK-3 is an accurate tool to improve patient selection in NASH therapeutic trials.

Dynamic personalized prediction of the individual liver-related risk after sustained viral response in HCV patients.

Sustained viral response (SVR) significantly improves the prognosis in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection but does not totally alleviate the risk of liver-related complications (LRC). We aimed to evaluate whether the dynamics of multiple measurements of simple parameters after SVR enable the development of a personalized prediction of prognosis in HCV patients. HCV mono-infected patients who experienced SVR in two prospective cohorts (ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort: derivation set; ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort: validation set) were included. The study outcome was LRC, a composite criterion including decompensation of cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Joint latent class modelling accounting for both biomarker trajectory and event occurrence during follow-up was developed in the derivation set to compute individual dynamic predictions, with further evaluation in the validation set. In the derivation set (n = 695; 50 LRC during the median 3.8 [1.6-7.5] years follow-up), FIB4 was identified as a biomarker associated with LRC occurrence after SVR. Joint modelling used sex and the dynamics of FIB4 and diabetes status to develop a personalized prediction of LRC. In the validation set (n = 7064; 273 LRC during the median 3.6 [2.5-4.9] years follow-up), individual dynamic predictions from the model accurately stratified the risk of LRC. Time-dependent Brier Score showed good calibration that improved with the accumulation of visits, justifying our modelling approach considering both baseline and follow-up measurements. Dynamic modelling using repeated measurements of simple parameters predicts the individual residual risk of LRC and improves personalized medicine after SVR in HCV patients.

Machine learning algorithm improves the detection of NASH (NAS-based) and at-risk NASH: A development and validation study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Detecting NASH remains challenging, while at-risk NASH (steatohepatitis and F≥ 2) tends to progress and is of interest for drug development and clinical application. We developed prediction models by supervised machine learning techniques, with clinical data and biomarkers to stage and grade patients with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Learning data were collected in the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis metacohort (966 biopsy-proven NAFLD adults), staged and graded according to NASH CRN. Conditions of interest were the clinical trial definition of NASH (NAS ≥ 4;53%), at-risk NASH (NASH with F ≥ 2;35%), significant (F ≥ 2;47%), and advanced fibrosis (F ≥ 3;28%). Thirty-five predictors were included. Missing data were handled by multiple imputations. Data were randomly split into training/validation (75/25) sets. A gradient boosting machine was applied to develop 2 models for each condition: clinical versus extended (clinical and biomarkers). Two variants of the NASH and at-risk NASH models were constructed: direct and composite models.Clinical gradient boosting machine models for steatosis/inflammation/ballooning had AUCs of 0.94/0.79/0.72. There were no improvements when biomarkers were included. The direct NASH model produced AUCs (clinical/extended) of 0.61/0.65. The composite NASH model performed significantly better (0.71) for both variants. The composite at-risk NASH model had an AUC of 0.83 (clinical and extended), an improvement over the direct model. Significant fibrosis models had AUCs (clinical/extended) of 0.76/0.78. The extended advanced fibrosis model (0.86) performed significantly better than the clinical version (0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Detection of NASH and at-risk NASH can be improved by constructing independent machine learning models for each component, using only clinical predictors. Adding biomarkers only improved the accuracy of fibrosis.

Noninvasive assessment of liver disease severity in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of simple, noninvasive tests (NITs) in NAFLD patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND RESULTS: This was an individual patient data meta-analysis of 1780 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and T2D. The index tests of interest were FIB-4, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography, and AGILE 3+. The target conditions were advanced fibrosis, NASH, and fibrotic NASH(NASH plus F2-F4 fibrosis). The diagnostic performance of noninvasive tests. individually or in sequential combination, was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and by decision curve analysis. Comparison with 2278 NAFLD patients without T2D was also made. In NAFLD with T2D LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed, both NFS and FIB-4 for advanced fibrosis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.82, AGILE 3+ 0.82, NFS 0.72, FIB-4 0.75, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index 0.68; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests), with an uncertainty area of 12%-20%. The combination of serum-based with LSM-based tests for advanced fibrosis led to a reduction of 40%-60% in necessary LSM tests. Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had a modest net benefit for ruling out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5%-10% of missing advanced fibrosis. LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed both NFS and FIB-4 for fibrotic NASH (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.79, AGILE 3+ 0.77, NFS 0.71, FIB-4 0.71; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests). All noninvasive scores were suboptimal for diagnosing NASH. CONCLUSIONS: LSM and AGILE 3+ individually or in low availability settings in sequential combination after FIB-4 or NFS have a similar good diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis and an acceptable diagnostic accuracy for fibrotic NASH in NAFLD patients with T2D.

Biomarkers for staging fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (the LITMUS project): a comparative diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: The reference standard for detecting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and staging fibrosis-liver biopsy-is invasive and resource intensive. Non-invasive biomarkers are urgently needed, but few studies have compared these biomarkers in a single cohort. As part of the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis (LITMUS) project, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 17 biomarkers and multimarker scores in detecting NASH and clinically significant fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and identify their optimal cutoffs as screening tests in clinical trial recruitment. METHODS: This was a comparative diagnostic accuracy study in people with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD from 13 countries across Europe, recruited between Jan 6, 2010, and Dec 29, 2017, from the LITMUS metacohort of the prospective European NAFLD Registry. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with paired liver biopsy and serum samples were eligible; those with excessive alcohol consumption or evidence of other chronic liver diseases were excluded. The diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers was expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with liver histology as the reference standard and compared with the Fibrosis-4 index for liver fibrosis (FIB-4) in the same subgroup. Target conditions were the presence of NASH with clinically significant fibrosis (ie, at-risk NASH; NAFLD Activity Score ≥4 and F≥2) or the presence of advanced fibrosis (F≥3), analysed in all participants with complete data. We identified thres holds for each biomarker for reducing the number of biopsy-based screen failures when recruiting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis for future trials. FINDINGS: Of 1430 participants with NAFLD in the LITMUS metacohort with serum samples, 966 (403 women and 563 men) were included after all exclusion criteria had been applied. 335 (35%) of 966 participants had biopsy-confirmed NASH and clinically significant fibrosis and 271 (28%) had advanced fibrosis. For people with NASH and clinically significant fibrosis, no single biomarker or multimarker score significantly reached the predefined AUC 0·80 acceptability threshold (AUCs ranging from 0·61 [95% CI 0·54-0·67] for FibroScan controlled attenuation parameter to 0·81 [0·75-0·86] for SomaSignal), with accuracy mostly similar to FIB-4. Regarding detection of advanced fibrosis, SomaSignal (AUC 0·90 [95% CI 0·86-0·94]), ADAPT (0·85 [0·81-0·89]), and FibroScan liver stiffness measurement (0·83 [0·80-0·86]) reached acceptable accuracy. With 11 of 17 markers, histological screen failure rates could be reduced to 33% in trials if only people who were marker positive had a biopsy for evaluating eligibility. The best screening performance for NASH and clinically significant fibrosis was observed for SomaSignal (number needed to test [NNT] to find one true positive was four [95% CI 4-5]), then ADAPT (six [5-7]), MACK-3 (seven [6-8]), and PRO-C3 (nine [7-11]). INTERPRETATION: None of the single markers or multimarker scores achieved the predefined acceptable AUC for replacing biopsy in detecting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis. However, several biomarkers could be applied in a prescreening strategy in clinical trial recruitment. The performance of promising markers will be further evaluated in the ongoing prospective LITMUS study cohort. FUNDING: The Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking.

Hepatocyte apoptosis fragment product cytokeratin-18 M30 level and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis risk diagnosis: an international registry study.

BACKGROUND: Liver biopsy for the diagnosis of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is limited by its inherent invasiveness and possible sampling errors. Some studies have shown that cytokeratin-18 (CK-18) concentrations may be useful in diagnosing NASH, but results across studies have been inconsistent. We aimed to identify the utility of CK-18 M30 concentrations as an alternative to liver biopsy for non-invasive identification of NASH. METHODS: Individual data were collected from 14 registry centers on patients with biopsy-proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and in all patients, circulating CK-18 M30 levels were measured. Individuals with a NAFLD activity score (NAS) ≥5 with a score of ≥1 for each of steatosis, ballooning, and lobular inflammation were diagnosed as having definite NASH; individuals with a NAS ≤2 and no fibrosis were diagnosed as having non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL). RESULTS: A total of 2571 participants were screened, and 1008 (153 with NAFL and 855 with NASH) were finally enrolled. Median CK-18 M30 levels were higher in patients with NASH than in those with NAFL (mean difference 177 U/L; standardized mean difference [SMD]: 0.87 [0.69-1.04]). There was an interaction between CK-18 M30 levels and serum alanine aminotransferase, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension ( P  < 0.001, P  = 0.026 and P  = 0.049, respectively). CK-18 M30 levels were positively associated with histological NAS in most centers. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for NASH was 0.750 (95% confidence intervals: 0.714-0.787), and CK-18 M30 at Youden's index maximum was 275.7 U/L. Both sensitivity (55% [52%-59%]) and positive predictive value (59%) were not ideal. CONCLUSION: This large multicenter registry study shows that CK-18 M30 measurement in isolation is of limited value for non-invasively diagnosing NASH.

Validation of a screening algorithm for hepatic fibrosis by Doppler ultrasound and elastography in a general population.

BACKGROUND: Early detection can prevent the initial stages of fibrosis from progressing to cirrhosis. PURPOSE: To evaluate an algorithm combining three echographic indicators and elastographic measurements to screen for hepatic fibrosis in an unselected population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: From May 2017 to June 2018, all patients with no history and no known chronic liver disease who were referred for an ultrasound (US) were prospectively included in eight hospitals. The indicators being sought were liver surface irregularity, demodulation of hepatic veins, and spleen length >110 mm. Patients presenting at least one of these underwent elastography measurements with virtual touch quantification (VTQ) or supersonic shear imaging (SSI). If elastography was positive, patients were referred to hepatologist for fibrosis evaluation. Reference standard was obtained by FibroMeterVCTE or biopsy. A FibroMeterVCTE result >0.384 indicated a "necessary referral" to a hepatologist. RESULTS: Of the 1501 patients included, 504 (33.6%) were positive for at least one US indicator. All of them underwent US elastography, with 85 being positive. Of the patients, 58 (3.6%) had a consultation with a liver specialist: 21 had positive FibroMeterVCTE and nine had an indication of biopsy for suspicion of fibrosis. This screening algorithm made it possible to diagnose 1.6% of patients in our population with unknown fibrosis. Of the patients, 50% referred to the liver specialist were "necessary referrals." CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that three simple US indicators with no systematic elastographic measurement could be applied in day-to-day practice to look for hepatic fibrosis in an unsuspected population allowing relevant referrals to a hepatologist.