Proof-of-concept calculations to determine the health-adjusted life-year trade-off between intravitreal anti-VEGF injections and transmission of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Clinical ophthalmological guidelines encourage the assessment of potential benefits and harms when deciding whether to perform elective ophthalmology procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to minimize the risk of disease transmission. METHOD: We performed probability calculations to estimate COVID-19 infection status and likelihood of disease transmission among neovascular age-related macular degeneration patients and health-care workers during anti-VEGF procedures, at various community prevalence levels of COVID-19. We then applied the expected burden of COVID-19 illness and death expressed through health-adjusted life-years (HALYs) lost. We compared these results to the expected disease burden of severe visual impairment if sight protecting anti-VEGF injections were not performed. RESULTS: Our calculations suggest a wide range of contexts where the benefits of treatment to prevent progression to severe visual impairment or blindness are greater than the expected harms to the patient and immediate health care team due to COVID-19. For example, with appropriate protective equipment the benefits of treatment outweigh harms when the chance of progression to severe visual impairment is >0.044% for all scenarios where COVID-19 prevalence was 1/1000, even when the attack rate in the clinical setting is very high (5-43%). CONCLUSION: Unless COVID-19 prevalence is very high, the reduced disease burden from avoiding visual impairment outweighs the expected HALYs lost from COVID-19 transmission. This finding is driven by the fact that HALYs lost when someone suffers severe visual impairment for 5 years are equivalent to nearly 400 moderate cases of infectious disease lasting 2 weeks each.

Cataract surgery for falls prevention and improving vision: modelling the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness in a high-income country.

AIM: To estimate the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness of cataract surgery when expedited as a falls prevention strategy (reducing the waiting time for surgery by 12 months) and as a routine procedure. METHODS: An established injurious falls model designed for the New Zealand (NZ) population (aged 65+ years) was adapted. Key parameters relating to cataracts were sourced from the literature and the NZ Ministry of Health. A health system perspective with discounting at 3% was used. RESULTS: Expedited cataract surgery for 1 year of incident cases was found to generate a total 240 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 161 to 360) at net health system costs of NZ$2.43 million (95% UI 2.02 to 2.82 million) over the remaining lifetimes of the surgery group. This intervention was cost-effective by widely accepted standards with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of NZ$10 600 (US$7540) (95% UI NZ$6030 to NZ$15 700) per QALY gained. The level of cost-effectiveness did not vary greatly by sex, ethnicity and previous fall history, but was higher for the 65-69 age group compared with the oldest age group of 85-89 years (NZ$7000 vs NZ$14 200 per QALY gained). Comparing cataract surgery with no surgery, the ICER was even more favourable at NZ$4380 (95% UI 2410 to 7210) per QALY. Considering only the benefits for vision improvement and excluding the benefits of falls prevention, it was still favourable at NZ$9870 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Expedited cataract surgery appears very cost-effective. Routine cataract surgery is itself very cost-effective, and its value appears largely driven by the falls prevention benefits.

Expediting cataract surgery in New Zealand is cost-effective for falls prevention and improving vision-so what might be the next steps?

Multifactorial individual assessment with interventions tailored to the individual's risk factors can reduce the rate of falls and risk of fractures. Assessment of vision is one key aspect of multifactorial assessment and first eye cataract surgery reduces the rate of falls. We recently modelled the impact of expediting first eye cataract surgery in New Zealand for falls prevention (Boyd et al Injury Prevention). The model used was the same model used for previous modelling of home safety assessment and modification and community exercise programmes. This study found that expedited cataract surgery was highly cost-effective by generating a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for NZ$10,600 (95%UI: NZ$6,030-15,700). Routine cataract surgery itself (relative to no such surgery being available) was even more cost-effective at $4,380 per QALY gained, when considering vision benefits and falls prevention benefits. In this viewpoint article, we discuss the potential next steps for expediting cataract surgery and further improving its cost-effectiveness in the New Zealand setting.

Just ask Siri? A pilot study comparing smartphone digital assistants and laptop Google searches for smoking cessation advice.

OBJECTIVE: To compare voice-activated internet searches by smartphone (two digital assistants) with laptop ones for information and advice related to smoking cessation. DESIGN: Responses to 80 questions on a range of topics related to smoking cessation (including the FAQ from a NHS website), compared for quality. SETTING: Smartphone and internet searches as performed in New Zealand. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ranked responses to the questions. RESULTS: Google laptop internet searches came first (or first equal) for best quality smoking cessation advice for 83% (66/80) of the responses. Voiced questions to Google Assistant ("OK Google") came first/first equal 76% of the time vs Siri (Apple) at 28%. Google and Google Assistant were statistically significantly better than Siri searches (odds ratio 12.4 and 8.5 respectively, p<0.0001 in each comparison). When asked FAQs from the National Health Service website, or to find information the Centers for Disease Control has made videos on, the best search results used expert sources 59% (31/52) of the time, "some expertise" (eg, Wikipedia) 18% of the time, but also magazines and other low quality sources 19% of the time. Using all three methods failed to find relevant information 8% (6/80) of the time, with Siri having the most failed responses (53% of the time). CONCLUSION: Google internet searches and Google Assistant were found to be significantly superior to the Siri digital assistant for smoking cessation information. While expert content was returned over half the time, there is still substantial room for improvement in how these software systems deliver smoking cessation advice.

Colorectal Cancer Screening: How Health Gains and Cost-Effectiveness Vary by Ethnic Group, the Impact on Health Inequalities, and the Optimal Age Range to Screen.

Background: Screening programs consistently underserve indigenous populations despite a higher overall burden of cancer. In this study, we explore the likely health gains and cost-effectiveness of a national colorectal cancer screening program for the indigenous Maori population of New Zealand (NZ).Methods: A Markov model estimated: health benefits (quality-adjusted life-year; QALY), costs, and cost-effectiveness of biennial immunochemical fecal occult blood testing (FOBTi) of 50- to 74-year-olds from 2011. Input parameters came from literature reviews, the NZ Bowel Screening Programme Pilot, and NZ linked health datasets. Equity analyses substituted non-Maori values for Maori values of background (noncolorectal cancer) morbidity and mortality, colorectal cancer survival and incidence, screening coverage, and stage-specific survival. We measured the change in "quality-adjusted life expectancy" (QALE) as a result of the intervention.Results: Based upon a threshold of GDP per capita (NZ$45,000), colorectal cancer screening in NZ using FOBTi is cost-effective: NZ$2,930 (US$1,970) per QALY gained [95% uncertainty interval: cost saving to $6,850 (US$4,610)]. Modeled health gains per capita for Maori were less than for non-Maori: half for 50- to 54-year-olds (0.031 QALYs per person for Maori vs. 0.058 for non-Maori), and a fifth (0.003 c.f. 0.016) for 70- to 74-year-olds and ethnic inequalities in QALE increased with colorectal cancer screening.Conclusions: Colorectal cancer screening in NZ using FOBTi is likely to be cost-effective but risks increasing inequalities in health for Maori.Impact: To avoid or mitigate the generation of further health inequalities, attention should be given to underserved population groups when planning and implementing screening programs. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(9); 1391-400. ©2017 AACR.

Assessing the similarity of mental models of operating room team members and implications for patient safety: a prospective, replicated study.

BACKGROUND: Patient safety depends on effective teamwork. The similarity of team members' mental models - or their shared understanding-regarding clinical tasks is likely to influence the effectiveness of teamwork. Mental models have not been measured in the complex, high-acuity environment of the operating room (OR), where professionals of different backgrounds must work together to achieve the best surgical outcome for each patient. Therefore, we aimed to explore the similarity of mental models of task sequence and of responsibility for task within multidisciplinary OR teams. METHODS: We developed a computer-based card sorting tool (Momento) to capture the information on mental models in 20 six-person surgical teams, each comprised of three subteams (anaesthesia, surgery, and nursing) for two simulated laparotomies. Team members sorted 20 cards depicting key tasks according to when in the procedure each task should be performed, and which subteam was primarily responsible for each task. Within each OR team and subteam, we conducted pairwise comparisons of scores to arrive at mean similarity scores for each task. RESULTS: Mean similarity score for task sequence was 87 % (range 57-97 %). Mean score for responsibility for task was 70 % (range = 38-100 %), but for half of the tasks was only 51 % (range = 38-69 %). Participants believed their own subteam was primarily responsible for approximately half the tasks in each procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We found differences in the mental models of some OR team members about responsibility for and order of certain tasks in an emergency laparotomy. Momento is a tool that could help elucidate and better align the mental models of OR team members about surgical procedures and thereby improve teamwork and outcomes for patients.

Ethnic counts on mortality, New Zealand Cancer Registry and census data: 2006-2011.

AIM: To investigate the effects on lung function of IV magnesium in acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD), when given in conjunction with standard bronchodilator therapy. METHODS: This was a pilot study to a randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial. 30 patients presenting to ED with AECOPD were included. In addition to standard bronchodilator therapy, 17 patients were given saline, and 13 received 2 g of magnesium sulphate intravenously. Spirometry was carried out at presentation (TA), after initial standard bronchodilator therapy (TB) and immediately (T0), at 60 minutes (T60) and 120 minutes (T120) after trial drug infusion. Primary outcomes were percentage change in FEV1 and FVC at T0, T60 and T120. Secondary outcomes were admission rates, length of stay and requirement for NIV or mechanical ventilation. Trial registration (ANZCTR), ACTRN12613000837729. RESULTS: Greater improvements were seen in FEV1 at T0, T60 and T120 compared to TB in magnesium group (at T120, mean percentage change in FEV1 was 27.07% with magnesium versus 11.39% in the placebo group, 95%CI 3.7 to 27.7, p=0.01). Similar significantly greater improvements were noted with FVC in the magnesium group, compared to TB. CONCLUSIONS: IV magnesium sulphate used as an adjunct therapy to standard bronchodilators in AECOPD presenting to ED may improve lung function in the short term.

A systematic review of simulation for multidisciplinary team training in operating rooms.

SUMMARY STATEMENT: Current simulation training initiatives predominantly occur in uniprofessional silos and do little to integrate different disciplines working in the operating room (OR). The objective of this review was to determine the current status of work describing simulation for full OR multidisciplinary teams including barriers to conducting OR multidisciplinary team training and factors contributing to successful courses. We found a total of 18 articles from 10 research groups. Various scenarios and simulators were used, and training sessions were generally perceived as realistic and beneficial by participants despite rudimentary integration of surgical and anesthetic models. Measures of performance involved a variety of both technical and nontechnical ratings of the simulations. Challenges to conducting the simulations included recruitment, model realism, and financial costs. Future work should focus on how best to overcome the barriers to implementation of team training interventions for full OR teams, particularly on how to engage senior staff to aid recruitment.