Predictors of heart failure readmission and all-cause mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Predischarge risk stratification of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) could facilitate tailored treatment and follow-up, however, simple scores to predict short-term risk for HF readmission or death are lacking. METHODS: We sought to develop a congestion-focused risk score using data from a prospective, two-center observational study in adults hospitalized for AHF. Laboratory data were collected on admission. Patients underwent physical examination, 4-zone, and in a subset 8-zone, lung ultrasound (LUS), and echocardiography at baseline. A second LUS was performed before discharge in a subset of patients. The primary endpoint was the composite of HF hospitalization or all-cause death. RESULTS: Among 350 patients (median age 75 years, 43% women), 88 participants (25%) were hospitalized or died within 90 days after discharge. A stepwise Cox regression model selected four significant independent predictors of the composite outcome, and each was assigned points proportional to its regression coefficient: NT-proBNP ≥2000 pg/mL (admission) (3 points), systolic blood pressure < 120 mmHg (baseline) (2 points), left atrial volume index ≥60 mL/m2 (baseline) (1 point) and ≥ 9 B-lines on predischarge 4-zone LUS (3 points). This risk score provided adequate risk discrimination for the composite outcome (HR 1.48 per 1 point increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.32-1.67, p < 0.001, C-statistic: 0.70). In a subset of patients with 8-zone LUS data (n = 176), results were similar (C-statistic: 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: A four-variable risk score integrating clinical, laboratory and ultrasound data may provide a simple approach for risk discrimination for 90-day adverse outcomes in patients with AHF if validated in future investigations.

Prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in adults from the Brazilian Amazon Basin.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) continues to be a burden in low- and middle-income countries and prevalence estimates are lacking from South America. We aimed to determine the prevalence of RHD in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. METHODS: We examined a random sample of adults (≥18 years) from the general population, who underwent echocardiographic image acquisition by a medical doctor. All images were analyzed according to (i) the 2012 World Heart Federation criteria and (ii) a simplified algorithm for RHD from a previously validated risk score (categories: low-, medium-, high-risk) which involved assessment of the mitral valve (leaflet thickening and excessive motion, regurgitation jet length) and aortic valve (thickening and any regurgitation). RESULTS: A total of 488 adults were screened (mean age 40 ± 15 years, 38% men). The prevalence of RHD was 39/1000 adults (n = 17 definite and n = 2 borderline). Fourteen (74%) had pathological mitral regurgitation, four (21%) mitral stenosis, 0 (0%) pathological aortic regurgitation and six (32%) both mitral and aortic valve disease. None had a prior diagnosis of RHD, 10 (53%) had positive cardiac auscultation and two (11%) reported a history of rheumatic fever. The simplified algorithm identified four (21%) adults as low-risk, six (32%) as intermediate, and nine (47%) as high-risk. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of RHD was 39/1000 in adults from the Brazilian Amazon Basin, indicating the need for screening programs in remote areas. A simplified model was only able to categorize every second case of RHD as high-risk. External validation of simplified screening models to increase feasibility in clinical practice are encouraged.

Tropical diseases and risk of hypertension in the Amazon Basin: a cross-sectional study.

Although infectious diseases have been associated with cardiovascular conditions, little is known about tropical disease burden and hypertension. We hypothesized that a history of tropical infections was associated with hypertension. We examined participants from outpatient clinics in the Amazon Basin who were interviewed about prior exposure to tropical diseases, including dengue, malaria hospitalization, and leishmaniasis. Hypertension was defined as a prior physician diagnosis of hypertension, treatment with anti-hypertensive medication, or a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg and/or a diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg. We used logistic regression models to examine the relationship between tropical infectious disease and hypertension. We included 556 participants (mean age 41 ± 15 years, 61% women) of whom 214 (38%) had hypertension and 354 (64%) had a history of tropical infectious disease. The distribution of tropical diseases was: dengue 270 (76%), malaria hospitalization 104 (29%) and leishmaniasis 48 (14%). Any prior tropical infection was significantly associated with prevalent hypertension (odds ratio 1.76 [95% CI 1.22-2.54], P = 0.003) and the association remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, socioeconomic status, smoking, vegetable intake and serum creatinine. Persons with a history of ≥2 tropical infections (n = 64) had the greatest risk of hypertension (odds ratio 2.04 [95% CI 1.15-3.63], P = 0.015). In adjusted models, prior infection with dengue was associated with hypertension (P = 0.006), but no associations were found with malaria hospitalization (P = 0.39) or leishmaniasis (P = 0.98). In conclusion, a history of tropical infectious disease was associated with hypertension. This finding supports the idea that pathogen burden may be related to cardiovascular conditions.

Early systolic lengthening by speckle tracking echocardiography predicts outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: Early systolic lengthening (ESL), a paradoxical stretch of myocardial fibers, has been linked to loss of myocardial viability and contractile dysfunction. We assessed the long-term prognostic potential of ESL in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients. METHODS: We retrospectively included patients (n = 709; mean age 68 years; 85% men) who underwent speckle tracking echocardiography (median 15 days) prior to CABG. Endpoints were cardiovascular death (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We assessed amplitude of ESL (%), defined as peak positive strain, and duration of ESL (ms), determined as time from Q-wave on the ECG to peak positive strain. We applied Cox models adjusted for clinical risk assessed as EuroSCORE II. RESULTS: During median follow-up of 3.8 years [IQR 2.7-4.9 years], 45 (6%) experienced CVD and 80 (11%) died. In survival analyses adjusted for EuroSCORE II, each 1% increase in amplitude of ESL was associated with CVD (HR 1.35 [95%CI 1.09-1.68], P = 0.006) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.29 [95%CI 1.08-1.54], P = 0.004). Similar findings applied to duration of ESL (per 10ms increase) and CVD (HR 1.12 [95%CI 1.02-1.23], P = 0.016) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.09 [95%CI 1.01--1.17], P = 0.031). The prognostic value of ESL amplitude was modified by sex (P interaction < 0.05), such that the prognostic value was greater in women for both endpoints. When adding ESL duration to EuroSCORE II, the net reclassification index improved significantly for both CVD and all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of ESL provides independent and incremental prognostic information in addition to the EuroSCORE II for CVD and all-cause mortality in CABG patients.