Time From Colorectal Cancer Surgery to Adjuvant Chemotherapy: Post Hoc Analysis of the SCOT Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The timing of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery for colorectal cancer and its association with long-term outcomes have been investigated in national cohort studies, with no consensus on the optimal time from surgery to adjuvant chemotherapy. Objective: To analyze the association between the timing of adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery for colorectal cancer and disease-free survival. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a post hoc analysis of the phase 3 SCOT randomized clinical trial, from 244 centers in 6 countries, investigating the noninferiority of 3 vs 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with high-risk stage II or stage III nonmetastatic colorectal cancer who underwent curative-intended surgery were randomized to either 3 or 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy consisting of fluoropyrimidine and oxaliplatin regimens. Those with complete information on the date of surgery, treatment type, and long-term follow-up were investigated for the primary and secondary end points. Data were analyzed from May 2022 to February 2024. Intervention: In the post hoc analysis, patients were grouped according to the start of adjuvant chemotherapy being less than 6 weeks vs greater than 6 weeks after surgery. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was disease-free survival. The secondary end points were adverse events in the total treatment period or the first cycle of adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: A total of 5719 patients (2251 [39.4%] female; mean [SD] age, 63.4 [9.3] years) were included in the primary analysis after data curation; among them, 914 were in the early-start group and 4805 were in the late-start group. Median (IQR) follow-up was 72.0 (47.3-88.1) months, with a median (IQR) of 56 (41-66) days from surgery to chemotherapy. Five-year disease-free survival was 78.0% (95% CI, 75.3%-80.8%) in the early-start group and 73.2% (95% CI, 72.0%-74.5%) in the late-start group. In an adjusted Cox regression analysis, the start of adjuvant chemotherapy greater than 6 weeks after surgery was associated with worse disease-free survival (hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.06-1.46; P = .01). In adjusted logistic regression models, there was no association with adverse events in the total treatment period (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.65-1.04; P = .09) or adverse events in the first cycle of treatment (odds ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.56-1.09; P = .13). Conclusions and Relevance: In this international population of patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colorectal cancer, starting adjuvant chemotherapy more than 6 weeks after surgery was associated with worse disease-free survival, with no difference in adverse events between the groups. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN59757862.

Developing a Framework for the Health Technology Assessment of Histology-independent Precision Oncology Therapies.

The arrival of precision oncology is challenging the evidence standards under which technologies are evaluated for regulatory approval as well as for health technology assessment (HTA) purposes. Several key concepts are discussed to highlight the source of the challenges in evaluating these products, particularly those impacting the HTA of histology-independent therapies. These include the basket trial design, high uncertainty in (potentially substantial) benefits for histology-independent therapies, and the inability to identify and quantify benefits of standard of care in daily practice when the biomarker is not currently used in practice. There is little precedent for a technology with the unique mixture of challenges for HTA of histology-independent therapies and they will be evaluated using standard HTA, as there currently is no evidence suggesting the standard HTA framework is not appropriate. A number of questions proposed to help guide HTA bodies when assessing the appropriateness of local processes to optimally evaluate histology-independent therapies. Pragmatic solutions are further proposed to decrease uncertainty in the benefits of histology independent therapies as well as fill gaps in comparative evidence. The proposed solutions ensure a consistent and streamlined approach to evaluation across histology-independent products, although with varying strengths and limitations. Alongside these solutions, sponsors should engage early with HTA bodies/payers and regulatory agencies through parallel/joint scientific advice to facilitate the integration of both regulatory and HTA perspectives into one clinical development programme, potentially reconciling evidence requirements.

3-month versus 6-month adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with high-risk stage II and III colorectal cancer: 3-year follow-up of the SCOT non-inferiority RCT.

BACKGROUND: Oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy administered over 6 months is the standard adjuvant regimen for patients with high-risk stage II or III colorectal cancer. However, the regimen is associated with cumulative toxicity, characterised by chronic and often irreversible neuropathy. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy of 3-month versus 6-month adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancer and to compare the toxicity, health-related quality of life and cost-effectiveness of the durations. DESIGN: An international, randomised, open-label, non-inferiority, Phase III, parallel-group trial. SETTING: A total of 244 oncology clinics from six countries: UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland), Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥ 18 years who had undergone curative resection for high-risk stage II or III adenocarcinoma of the colon or rectum. INTERVENTIONS: The adjuvant treatment regimen was either oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil or oxaliplatin and capecitabine, randomised to be administered over 3 or 6 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was disease-free survival. Overall survival, adverse events, neuropathy and health-related quality of life were also assessed. The main cost categories were chemotherapy treatment and hospitalisation. Cost-effectiveness was assessed through incremental cost comparisons and quality-adjusted life-year gains between the options and was reported as net monetary benefit using a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year per patient. RESULTS: Recruitment is closed. In total, 6088 patients were randomised (3044 per group) between 27 March 2008 and 29 November 2013, with 6065 included in the intention-to-treat analyses (3-month analysis, n = 3035; 6-month analysis, n = 3030). Follow-up for the primary analysis is complete. The 3-year disease-free survival rate in the 3-month treatment group was 76.7% (standard error 0.8%) and in the 6-month treatment group was 77.1% (standard error 0.8%), equating to a hazard ratio of 1.006 (95% confidence interval 0.909 to 1.114; p-value for non-inferiority = 0.012), confirming non-inferiority for 3-month adjuvant chemotherapy. Frequent adverse events (alopecia, anaemia, anorexia, diarrhoea, fatigue, hand-foot syndrome, mucositis, sensory neuropathy, neutropenia, pain, rash, altered taste, thrombocytopenia and watery eye) showed a significant increase in grade with 6-month duration; the greatest difference was for sensory neuropathy (grade ≥ 3 was 4% for 3-month vs.16% for 6-month duration), for which a higher rate of neuropathy was seen for the 6-month treatment group from month 4 to ≥ 5 years (p < 0.001). Quality-of-life scores were better in the 3-month treatment group over months 4-6. A cost-effectiveness analysis showed 3-month treatment to cost £4881 less over the 8-year analysis period, with an incremental net monetary benefit of £7246 per patient. CONCLUSIONS: The study achieved its primary end point, showing that 3-month oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant chemotherapy is non-inferior to 6 months of the same regimen; 3-month treatment showed a better safety profile and cost less. For future work, further follow-up will refine long-term estimates of the duration effect on disease-free survival and overall survival. The health economic analysis will be updated to include long-term extrapolation for subgroups. We expect these analyses to be available in 2019-20. The Short Course Oncology Therapy (SCOT) study translational samples may allow the identification of patients who would benefit from longer treatment based on the molecular characteristics of their disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN59757862 and EudraCT 2007-003957-10. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This research was supported by the Medical Research Council (transferred to NIHR Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre - Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation; grant reference G0601705), the Swedish Cancer Society and Cancer Research UK Core Clinical Trials Unit Funding (funding reference C6716/A9894).

Patients diagnosed with bowel cancer are likely to have surgery to remove the tumour. Patients diagnosed with a more advanced stage of the disease are then likely to be offered what is known as adjuvant chemotherapy ­ chemotherapy to kill any cancer cells that have already spread but cannot be seen. Adjuvant chemotherapy is usually given over 6 months using two medicines known as oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine. This chemotherapy has side effects of diarrhoea, nausea and vomiting, and it reduces the numbers of cells in the blood. It can also damage nerves, which causes discomfort, numbness and tingling; in some cases, this can go on for years. These side effects are more likely to develop with longer treatment. This study looked at whether or not shortening the time over which patients were given oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy reduced its effectiveness. In this large study of over 6000 patients, half of the patients were allocated by chance to be treated for 3 months and the other half to be treated for 6 months. Reducing the time that patients had chemotherapy from 6 months to 3 months did not make the treatment less effective. When patients treated with chemotherapy over 3 months were compared with those treated over 6 months, 77% of patients in both groups were well with no detectable disease 3 years after surgery. Patients were less likely to get side effects with 3-month chemotherapy. In particular, the chance of persistent long-term nerve damage was lower, resulting in patients with 3-month chemotherapy having better health-related quality of life. Overall, the study showed that 3-month adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with bowel cancer is as effective as 6-month adjuvant chemotherapy and causes fewer side effects.

Oral versus Intravenous Antibiotics for Bone and Joint Infection.

BACKGROUND: The management of complex orthopedic infections usually includes a prolonged course of intravenous antibiotic agents. We investigated whether oral antibiotic therapy is noninferior to intravenous antibiotic therapy for this indication. METHODS: We enrolled adults who were being treated for bone or joint infection at 26 U.K. centers. Within 7 days after surgery (or, if the infection was being managed without surgery, within 7 days after the start of antibiotic treatment), participants were randomly assigned to receive either intravenous or oral antibiotics to complete the first 6 weeks of therapy. Follow-on oral antibiotics were permitted in both groups. The primary end point was definitive treatment failure within 1 year after randomization. In the analysis of the risk of the primary end point, the noninferiority margin was 7.5 percentage points. RESULTS: Among the 1054 participants (527 in each group), end-point data were available for 1015 (96.3%). Treatment failure occurred in 74 of 506 participants (14.6%) in the intravenous group and 67 of 509 participants (13.2%) in the oral group. Missing end-point data (39 participants, 3.7%) were imputed. The intention-to-treat analysis showed a difference in the risk of definitive treatment failure (oral group vs. intravenous group) of -1.4 percentage points (90% confidence interval [CI], -4.9 to 2.2; 95% CI, -5.6 to 2.9), indicating noninferiority. Complete-case, per-protocol, and sensitivity analyses supported this result. The between-group difference in the incidence of serious adverse events was not significant (146 of 527 participants [27.7%] in the intravenous group and 138 of 527 [26.2%] in the oral group; P=0.58). Catheter complications, analyzed as a secondary end point, were more common in the intravenous group (9.4% vs. 1.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Oral antibiotic therapy was noninferior to intravenous antibiotic therapy when used during the first 6 weeks for complex orthopedic infection, as assessed by treatment failure at 1 year. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research; OVIVA Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN91566927 .).

SCOT: a comparison of cost-effectiveness from a large randomised phase III trial of two durations of adjuvant Oxaliplatin combination chemotherapy for colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The Short Course Oncology Therapy (SCOT) study is an international, multicentre, non-inferiority randomised controlled trial assessing the efficacy, toxicity, and cost-effectiveness of 3 months (3 M) versus the usually given 6 months (6 M) of adjuvant chemotherapy in colorectal cancer. METHODS: In total, 6088 patients with fully resected high-risk stage II or stage III colorectal cancer were randomised and followed up for 3-8 years. The within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis from a UK health-care perspective is presented using the resource use data, quality of life (EQ-5D-3L), time on treatment (ToT), disease-free survival after treatment (DFS) and overall survival (OS) data. Quality-adjusted partitioned survival analysis and Kaplan-Meier Sample Average Estimator estimated QALYs and costs. Probabilistic sensitivity and subgroup analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: The 3 M arm is less costly (-£4881; 95% CI: -£6269; -£3492) and entails (non-significant) QALY gains (0.08; 95% CI: -0.086; 0.230) due to a better significant quality of life. The net monetary benefit was significantly higher in 3 M under a wide range of monetary values of a QALY. The subgroup analysis found similar results for patients in the CAPOX regimen. However, for the FOLFOX regimen, 3 M had lower QALYs than 6 M (not statistically significant). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 3 M dominates 6 M with no significant detrimental impact on QALYs. The results provide the economic case that a 3 M treatment strategy should be considered a new standard of care.

Development of a Conceptual Model of Disease Progression for Use in Economic Modeling of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

BACKGROUND: To develop and validate a new conceptual model (CM) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for use in disease progression and economic modeling. The CM identifies and describes qualitative associations between disease attributes, progression and outcomes. METHODS: A literature review was performed to identify any published CMs or literature reporting the impact and association of COPD disease attributes with outcomes. After critical analysis of the literature, a Steering Group of experts from the disciplines of health economics, epidemiology and clinical medicine was convened to develop a draft CM, which was refined using a Delphi process. The refined CM was validated by testing for associations between attributes using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). RESULTS: Disease progression attributes included in the final CM were history and occurrence of exacerbations, lung function, exercise capacity, signs and symptoms (cough, sputum, dyspnea), cardiovascular disease comorbidities, 'other' comorbidities (including depression), body composition (body mass index), fibrinogen as a biomarker, smoking and demographic characteristics (age, gender). Mortality and health-related quality of life were determined to be the most relevant final outcome measures for this model, intended to be the foundation of an economic model of COPD. CONCLUSION: The CM is being used as the foundation for developing a new COPD model of disease progression and to provide a framework for the analysis of patient-level data. The CM is available as a reference for the implementation of further disease progression and economic models.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis in R Using a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Framework: A Tutorial.

This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to performing cost-effectiveness analysis using a multi-state modeling approach. Alongside the tutorial, we provide easy-to-use functions in the statistics package R. We argue that this multi-state modeling approach using a package such as R has advantages over approaches where models are built in a spreadsheet package. In particular, using a syntax-based approach means there is a written record of what was done and the calculations are transparent. Reproducing the analysis is straightforward as the syntax just needs to be run again. The approach can be thought of as an alternative way to build a Markov decision-analytic model, which also has the option to use a state-arrival extended approach. In the state-arrival extended multi-state model, a covariate that represents patients' history is included, allowing the Markov property to be tested. We illustrate the building of multi-state survival models, making predictions from the models and assessing fits. We then proceed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis, including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Finally, we show how to create 2 common methods of visualizing the results-namely, cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. The analysis is implemented entirely within R. It is based on adaptions to functions in the existing R package mstate to accommodate parametric multi-state modeling that facilitates extrapolation of survival curves.

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling.

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results.

Patient Heterogeneity in Health Economic Decision Models for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Are Current Models Suitable to Evaluate Personalized Medicine?

OBJECTIVES: To assess how suitable current chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cost-effectiveness models are to evaluate personalized treatment options for COPD by exploring the type of heterogeneity included in current models and by validating outcomes for subgroups of patients. METHODS: A consortium of COPD modeling groups completed three tasks. First, they reported all patient characteristics included in the model and provided the level of detail in which the input parameters were specified. Second, groups simulated disease progression, mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs for hypothetical subgroups of patients that differed in terms of sex, age, smoking status, and lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] % predicted). Finally, model outcomes for exacerbations and mortality for subgroups of patients were validated against published subgroup results of two large COPD trials. RESULTS: Nine COPD modeling groups participated. Most models included sex (seven), age (nine), smoking status (six), and FEV1% predicted (nine), mainly to specify disease progression and mortality. Trial results showed higher exacerbation rates for women (found in one model), higher mortality rates for men (two models), lower mortality for younger patients (four models), and higher exacerbation and mortality rates in patients with severe COPD (four models). CONCLUSIONS: Most currently available COPD cost-effectiveness models are able to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of personalized treatment on the basis of sex, age, smoking, and FEV1% predicted. Treatment in COPD is, however, more likely to be personalized on the basis of clinical parameters. Two models include several clinical patient characteristics and are therefore most suitable to evaluate personalized treatment, although some important clinical parameters are still missing.

Cost-Effectiveness Model for Chemoimmunotherapy Options in Patients with Previously Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Unsuitable for Full-Dose Fludarabine-Based Therapy.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatment with anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody obinutuzumab plus chlorambucil (GClb) in untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia unsuitable for full-dose fludarabine-based therapy. METHODS: A Markov model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of GClb versus other chemoimmunotherapy options. The model comprised three mutually exclusive health states: "progression-free survival (with/without therapy)", "progression (refractory/relapsed lines)", and "death". Each state was assigned a health utility value representing patients' quality of life and a specific cost value. Comparisons between GClb and rituximab plus chlorambucil or only chlorambucil were performed using patient-level clinical trial data; other comparisons were performed via a network meta-analysis using information gathered in a systematic literature review. To support the model, a utility elicitation study was conducted from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. RESULTS: There was good agreement between the model-predicted progression-free and overall survival and that from the CLL11 trial. On incorporating data from the indirect treatment comparisons, it was found that GClb was cost-effective with a range of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, and remained so during deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses under various scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: GClb was estimated to increase both quality-adjusted life expectancy and treatment costs compared with several commonly used therapies, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below commonly referenced UK thresholds. This article offers a real example of how to combine direct and indirect evidence in a cost-effectiveness analysis of oncology drugs.

Are financial incentives cost-effective to support smoking cessation during pregnancy?

AIMS: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of up to £400 worth of financial incentives for smoking cessation in pregnancy as an adjunct to routine health care. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a Phase II randomized controlled trial (RCT) and a cost-utility analysis using a life-time Markov model. SETTING: The RCT was undertaken in Glasgow, Scotland. The economic analysis was undertaken from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 612 pregnant women randomized to receive usual cessation support plus or minus financial incentives of up to £400 vouchers (US $609), contingent upon smoking cessation. MEASUREMENTS: Comparison of usual support and incentive interventions in terms of cotinine-validated quitters, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and direct costs to the NHS. FINDINGS: The incremental cost per quitter at 34-38 weeks pregnant was £1127 ($1716).This is similar to the standard look-up value derived from Stapleton & West's published ICER tables, £1390 per quitter, by looking up the Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CIPT) incremental cost (£157) and incremental 6-month quit outcome (0.14). The life-time model resulted in an incremental cost of £17 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -£93, £107] and a gain of 0.04 QALYs (95% CI = -0.058, 0.145), giving an ICER of £482/QALY ($734/QALY). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates uncertainty in these results, particularly regarding relapse after birth. The expected value of perfect information was £30 million (at a willingness to pay of £30 000/QALY), so given current uncertainty, additional research is potentially worthwhile. CONCLUSION: Financial incentives for smoking cessation in pregnancy are highly cost-effective, with an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years of £482, which is well below recommended decision thresholds.

Decision analytic cost-effectiveness model to compare prostate cryotherapy to androgen deprivation therapy for treatment of radiation recurrent prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the cost-effectiveness of salvage cryotherapy (SC) in men with radiation recurrent prostate cancer (RRPC). DESIGN: Cost-utility analysis using decision analytic modelling by a Markov model. SETTING AND METHODS: Compared SC and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in a cohort of patients with RRPC (biopsy proven local recurrence, no evidence of metastatic disease). A literature review captured published data to inform the decision model, and resource use data were from the Scottish Prostate Cryotherapy Service. The model was run in monthly cycles for RRPC men, mean age of 70 years. The model was run over the patient lifetime, to assess changes in patient health states and the associated quality of life, survival and cost impacts. Results are reported in terms of the discounted incremental costs and discounted incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained between the 2 alternative interventions. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis used a 10,000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: SC has a high upfront treatment cost, but delays the ongoing monthly cost of ADT. SC is the dominant strategy over the patient lifetime; it is more effective with an incremental 0.56 QALY gain (95% CI 0.28 to 0.87), and less costly with a reduced lifetime cost of £29,719 (€37,619) (95% CI -51,985 to -9243). For a ceiling ratio of £30,000, SC has a 100% probability to be cost-effective. The cost neutral point was at 3.5 years, when the upfront cost of SC (plus any subsequent cumulative cost of side effects and ADT) equates the cumulative cost in the ADT arm. Limitations of our model may arise from its insensitivity to parameter or structural uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: The platform for SC versus ADT cost-effective analysis can be employed to evaluate other treatment modalities or strategies in RRPC. SC is the dominant strategy, costing less over a patient's lifetime with improvements in QALYs. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This economic analysis was undertaken as part of the CROP RCT study ISRCTN: 72677390; it was a pre-trial economic model developed and analysed during the pre-results stage of the RCT.

Evaluation of health in pregnancy grants in Scotland: a protocol for a natural experiment.

INTRODUCTION: A substantial proportion of low birth weight is attributable to the mother's cultural and socioeconomic circumstances. Early childhood programmes have been widely developed to improve child outcomes. In the UK, the Health in Pregnancy (HiP) grant, a universal conditional cash transfer of £190, was introduced for women reaching the 25th week of pregnancy with a due date on/or after 6 April 2009 and subsequently withdrawn for women reaching the 25th week of pregnancy on/or after 1 January 2011. The current study focuses on the evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the HiP grant. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The population under study will be all singleton births in Scotland over the periods of January 2004 to March 2009 (preintervention), April 2009 to April 2011 (intervention) and May 2011 to December 2013 (postintervention). Data will be extracted from the Scottish maternity and neonatal database. The analysis period 2004-2013 should yield over 585,000 births. The primary outcome will be birth weight among singleton births. Other secondary outcomes will include gestation at booking, booking before 25 weeks; measures of size and stage; gestational age at delivery; weight-for-dates, term at birth; birth outcomes and maternal smoking. The main statistical method we will use is interrupted time series. Outcomes will be measured on individual births nested within mothers, with mothers themselves clustered within data zones. Multilevel regression models will be used to determine whether the outcomes changed during the period in which the HiP grants was in effect. Subgroup analyses will be conducted for those groups most likely to benefit from the payments. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approval for data collection, storage and release for research purpose has been given (6 May 2014, PAC38A/13) by the Privacy Advisory Committee. The results of this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications in journals, national and international conferences.

Cost-effectiveness models for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: cross-model comparison of hypothetical treatment scenarios.

OBJECTIVES: To compare different chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cost-effectiveness models with respect to structure and input parameters and to cross-validate the models by running the same hypothetical treatment scenarios. METHODS: COPD modeling groups simulated four hypothetical interventions with their model and compared the results with a reference scenario of no intervention. The four interventions modeled assumed 1) 20% reduction in decline in lung function, 2) 25% reduction in exacerbation frequency, 3) 10% reduction in all-cause mortality, and 4) all these effects combined. The interventions were simulated for a 5-year and lifetime horizon with standardization, if possible, for sex, age, COPD severity, smoking status, exacerbation frequencies, mortality due to other causes, utilities, costs, and discount rates. Furthermore, uncertainty around the outcomes of intervention four was compared. RESULTS: Seven out of nine contacted COPD modeling groups agreed to participate. The 5-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the most comprehensive intervention, intervention four, was €17,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for two models, €25,000 to €28,000/QALY for three models, and €47,000/QALY for the remaining two models. Differences in the ICERs could mainly be explained by differences in input values for disease progression, exacerbation-related mortality, and all-cause mortality, with high input values resulting in low ICERs and vice versa. Lifetime results were mainly affected by the input values for mortality. The probability of intervention four to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay value of €50,000/QALY was 90% to 100% for five models and about 70% and 50% for the other two models, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality was the most important factor determining the differences in cost-effectiveness outcomes between models.

Fractional flow reserve versus angiography in guiding management to optimize outcomes in non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (FAMOUS-NSTEMI): rationale and design of a randomized controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: In patients with acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), coronary arteriography is usually recommended; but visual interpretation of the angiogram is subjective. We hypothesized that functional assessment of coronary stenosis severity with a pressure-sensitive guide wire (fractional flow reserve [FFR]) would have additive diagnostic, clinical, and health economic utility as compared with angiography-guided standard care. METHODS AND DESIGN: A prospective multicenter parallel-group 1:1 randomized controlled superiority trial in 350 NSTEMI patients with ≥1 coronary stenosis ≥30% severity (threshold for FFR measurement) will be conducted. Patients will be randomized immediately after coronary angiography to the FFR-guided group or angiography-guided group. All patients will then undergo FFR measurement in all vessels with a coronary stenosis ≥30% severity including culprit and nonculprit lesions. Fractional flow reserve will be disclosed to guide treatment in the FFR-guided group but not disclosed in the "angiography-guided" group. In the FFR-guided group, an FFR ≤0.80 will be an indication for revascularization by percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass surgery, as appropriate. The primary outcome is the between-group difference in the proportion of patients allocated to medical management only compared with revascularization. Secondary outcomes include the occurrence of cardiac death or hospitalization for myocardial infarction or heart failure, quality of life, and health care costs. The minimum and average follow-up periods for the primary analysis are 6 and 18 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our developmental clinical trial will address the feasibility of FFR measurement in NSTEMI and the influence of FFR disclosure on treatment decisions and health and economic outcomes.

Time trends in 30 day case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma in adults in Scotland: a retrospective cohort study from 1981 to 2009.

BACKGROUND: The risk of case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma has not been well characterised. We describe trends in 30 day case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma in adults in Scotland from 1981 to 2009. METHODS: Using the Scottish Morbidity Record Scheme (SMR01) with all asthma hospitalisations for adults (≥18 years) with ICD9 493 and ICD10 J45-J46 in the principal diagnostic position at discharge (1981-2009). These data were linked to mortality data from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS), with asthma case-fatality defined as death within 30 days of asthma admission (in or out of hospital). Logistic regression was used to explore the impact of age, sex, previous asthma admission (in the 12 months prior to hospitalisation), socioeconomic deprivation, year of admission and co-morbidity on 30-day case-fatality. RESULTS: There were a total of 116,457 asthma hospitalisations; a total of 1000 (0.9%) hospitalisations resulted in a post-admission death (within 30 days of admission). Odds ratios for unadjusted and adjusted case-fatality showed a decreased risk of case-fatality from the mid-1990s onwards when compared to case-fatality in 1981. Advancing age and co-morbid diagnoses of respiratory failure, cancer, renal failure, cor pulmonale, coronary heart disease and respiratory infection were associated with increased likelihood of death. CONCLUSIONS: 30 day case-fatality has declined over the last three decades, comparable to case-fatality reported in other parts of the U.K. This decline may be in part due to improved guidelines, protocols and disease management for asthma over the last 30 years. The likelihood of death 30 days following an asthma admission increased with age group and was associated with respiratory failure, renal failure and cancer.

Perioperative and long-term outcomes following aortic valve replacement: a population cohort study of 4124 consecutive patients.

OBJECTIVE: Because of increasing life expectancy, more patients require valve replacement for aortic stenosis. We aimed to determine perioperative and long-term outcomes, the factors associated with these and whether they have changed over time. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of all 4124 patients, who underwent isolated, primary aortic valve replacement in Scotland between April 1996 and March 2009 inclusive. RESULTS: Annual operations increased by 68%, from 261 to 439. The overall risk of dying within 30 days, 5 years and 10 years was 3.4%, 19.9% and 38.5%, respectively. Over 10 years' follow-up, 4.4% underwent further valve surgery, 7.9% suffered a stroke and 5.3% a myocardial infarction. Age, renal impairment and urgency were predictors of both perioperative and long-term death. Perioperative death was associated with left-ventricular impairment and long-term death with respiratory disease, diabetes and deprivation. Over the 13 years, there was an increase in median age (from 66 to 69 years, p < 0.001), diabetes (from 1.9% to 12.6%, p < 0.001), hypertension (from 26.4% to 56.1%, p < 0.001), cerebrovascular disease (from 3.7% to 9.8%, p < 0.001), respiratory disease (from 6.6% to 9.7%, p = 0.020) and previous myocardial infarction (from 0.6% to 5.8%, p < 0.001), but the risk of perioperative death fell from 6.5% to 3.1% (odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83, 0.92, p < 0.001) per year. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing aortic valve replacement have a poor risk profile. Over time, their numbers, age and co-morbidity have increased. In spite of these, there has been a significant reduction in the risk of perioperative death.

One-year outcomes and a cost-effectiveness analysis for smokers accessing group-based and pharmacy-led cessation services.

INTRODUCTION: An observational study examining 1-year follow-up of clients of two National Health Service smoking cessation services in Glasgow was used to inform a cost-effectiveness analysis. One service involved 7 weeks of group-based support (n = 411) and the other consisted of up to 12 weeks of one-to-one counseling with pharmacists (n = 1,374). Pharmacological aids to quitting (e.g., nicotine replacement therapy) were available to all clients. METHODS: Quit rates were calculated for each service at 52 weeks after the quit date, and these were used for an economic evaluation of both the annual and the lifetime cost-effectiveness of the pharmacy- and group-based interventions in comparison with a baseline "self-quit" scenario. The annual cost-effectiveness model established the incremental cost per 52-week quitter, while a Markov model was developed for the lifetime analysis to estimate the potential lifetime outcomes in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained, to account for the benefits quitters will receive in terms of extended life years and improvements in quality of life from smoking cessation. RESULTS: The proportion of carbon monoxide-validated quitters from both services combined fell from 22.5% at 4-week follow-up to 3.6% at 52 weeks. The group service achieved a higher quit rate (6.3%) than the pharmacy service (2.8%) but was more intensive and required greater overhead costs. The lifetime analysis resulted in an incremental cost per QALY of £4,800 for the group support and £2,600 for pharmacy one-to-one counseling. CONCLUSIONS: Despite disappointing 1-year quit rates, both services were considered to be highly cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacy and group behavioural support smoking cessation services in Glasgow.

AIMS: Smokers attending group-based support for smoking cessation in Glasgow are significantly more likely to be successful than those attending pharmacy-based support. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of these two modes of support. DESIGN: Combination of observational study data and information from National Health Service (NHS) Greater Glasgow and Clyde smoking cessation services. SETTING: Glasgow, Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1979 smokers who accessed either of the cessation services between March and May 2007. INTERVENTION: Two smoking treatment services offering one-to-one support in pharmacies, and providing group counselling in the community. MEASUREMENTS: Routine monitoring data on resource use and smoking status (carbon monoxide-validated, self-reported, non-quitters and relapsers) at 4-week follow-up. FINDINGS: The incremental cost per 4-week quitter for pharmacy support was found to be approximately 772 pounds sterling, and 1612 pounds sterling for group support, in comparison to self-quit cessation attempts. These findings compare favourably with previously published outcomes from cost-effectiveness smoking cessation studies. Assuming a relapse rate of 75% from 4 weeks to 1 year and a further 35% beyond 1 year, and combining this with an average of 1.98 quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained per permanent cessation, provides an estimated incremental cost per QALY of 4400 pounds sterling for the pharmacy service and 5400 pounds sterling for group support service. CONCLUSIONS: Group support and pharmacy-based support for smoking cessation are both extremely cost-effective.

The impact of chronic hepatitis B on quality of life: a multinational study of utilities from infected and uninfected persons.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a condition that results in substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide because of progressive liver damage. Investigators undertaking economic evaluations of new therapeutic agents require estimates of health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Recently, evidence has begun to accumulate that differences in cultural backgrounds have a quantifiable impact on perceptions of health. The objective was to elicit utilities for six health states that occur after infection with the hepatitis B virus from infected and uninfected respondents living in jurisdictions with low and with high CHB endemicity. METHODS: Standard gamble utilities were elicited from hepatitis patients and uninfected respondents using an interviewer-administered survey in the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Spain, Hong Kong, and mainland China. Generalized linear models were used to the effect on utilities of current health, age and sex, jurisdiction and, for infected respondents, current disease state. RESULTS: The sample included 534 CHB-infected patients and 600 uninfected respondents. CHB and compensated cirrhosis had a moderate impact on HRQOL with utilities ranging from 0.68 to 0.80. Decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma had a stronger impact with utilities ranging from 0.35 to 0.41. Significant variation was observed between countries, with both types of respondents in mainland China and Hong Kong reporting systematically lower utilities. CONCLUSIONS: Health states related to CHB infection have substantial reductions in HRQOL and the utilities reported in this study provide valuable information for comparing new treatment options. The observed intercountry differences suggest that economic evaluations may benefit from country-specific utility estimates. The extent that systematic intercountry differences in utilities hold true for other infectious and chronic diseases remains an open question and has considerable implications for the proper conduct and interpretation of economic evaluations.