Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia: a population-level analysis of all-cause and noncommunicable disease deaths in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Age-standardised noncommunicable disease (NCD) mortality and the proportion of the elderly population in Latvia are high, while public health and health care systems are underresourced. The emerging COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about its detrimental impact on all-cause and noncommunicable disease mortality in Latvia. We estimated the timing and number of excess all-cause and cause-specific deaths in 2020 in Latvia due to COVID-19 and selected noncommunicable diseases. METHODS: A time series analysis of all-cause and cause-specific weekly mortality from COVID-19, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and chronic lower respiratory diseases from the National Causes of Death Database from 2015 to 2020 was used by applying generalised additive modelling (GAM) and joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: Between weeks 14 and 52 (from 1 April to 29 December) of 2020, a total of 3111 excess deaths (95% PI 1339 - 4832) were estimated in Latvia, resulting in 163.77 excess deaths per 100 000. Since September 30, with the outbreak of the second COVID-19 wave, 55% of all excess deaths have occurred. Altogether, COVID-19-related deaths accounted for only 28% of the estimated all-cause excess deaths. A significant increase in excess mortality was estimated for circulatory diseases (68.91 excess deaths per 100 000). Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were listed as the underlying cause in almost 60% of COVID-19-contributing deaths. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality and mortality from circulatory diseases significantly increased in Latvia during the first pandemic year. All-cause excess mortality substantially exceeded reported COVID-19-related deaths, implying COVID-19-related mortality during was significantly underestimated. Increasing mortality from circulatory diseases suggests a negative cumulative effect of COVID-19 exposure and reduced access to healthcare services for NCD patients.

Pre-existing diabetes mellitus and all-cause mortality in cancer patients: a register-based study in Latvia.

BACKGROUND: Most studies from high income countries consistently report that preexisting diabetes reduces overall survival of cancer patients. We examined this association in a retrospective cohort study using two nation-wide population-based data sets in Latvia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Cancer Register, linked with the Diabetes Register and Causes of Death Database, was the first data source used to select 22,936 men and 25,338 women with cancer diagnosed from 2009 to 2013. The follow-up period ended on 28 February 2015. The National Health Service data served as a second data source, which was used to select 10,130 men and 13,236 women with cancer as the main diagnosis, who were discharged from oncology hospitals from 2009 to 2012. Prescriptions of reimbursed antidiabetic medications indicated prior diabetes status. The follow-up period started at the date of discharge and ended on 31 December 2013. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess association between preexisting diabetes and all-cause mortality, adjusted for age. RESULTS: Men with preexisting diabetes had better overall short-term survival: the age-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were 0.86 (0.79-0.93) for the first year and 0.89 (0.80-0.98) for the first two years after cancer diagnosis according to the disease register and health service data, respectively. After three full follow-up years, their relative mortality increased, with an age-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.60 (1.28-1.99). Among women, preexisting diabetes was associated with slightly higher all-cause mortality during the entire follow-up period, with age-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.17 (1.10-1.24) for the disease register data and 1.11 (1.02-1.21) for the health service data. CONCLUSION: Interestingly, we found better overall survival of diabetic men during the first years after cancer diagnosis. We hypothesize that access to health services may be advantageous to diabetic patients who are in close contact with the healthcare system.

Healthcare financing reform in Latvia: switching from social health insurance to NHS and back?

In the 1990s, Latvia aimed at introducing Social Health Insurance (SHI) but later changed to a National Health Service (NHS) type system. The NHS is financed from general taxation, provides coverage to the entire population, and pays for a basic service package purchased from independent public and private providers. In November 2013, the Cabinet of Ministers passed a draft Healthcare Financing Law, aiming at increasing public expenditures on health by introducing Compulsory Health Insurance (CHI) and linking entitlement to health services to the payment of income tax. Opponents of the reform argue that linking entitlement to health services to the payment of income tax does not have the potential to increase public expenditures on health but that it can contribute to compromising universal coverage and access to health services of certain population groups. In view of strong opposition, it is unlikely that the law will be adopted before parliamentary elections in October 2014. Nevertheless, the discussion around the law is interesting because of three main reasons: (1) it can illustrate why the concept of SHI remains attractive - not only for Latvia but also for other countries, (2) it shows that a change from NHS to SHI does not imply major institutional reforms, and (3) it demonstrates the potential problems of introducing SHI, i.e. of linking entitlement to health services to the payment of contributions.

Interbirth interval is associated with childhood type 1 diabetes risk.

Short interbirth interval has been associated with maternal complications and childhood autism and leukemia, possibly due to deficiencies in maternal micronutrients at conception or increased exposure to sibling infections. A possible association between interbirth interval and subsequent risk of childhood type 1 diabetes has not been investigated. A secondary analysis of 14 published observational studies of perinatal risk factors for type 1 diabetes was conducted. Risk estimates of diabetes by category of interbirth interval were calculated for each study. Random effects models were used to calculate pooled odds ratios (ORs) and investigate heterogeneity between studies. Overall, 2,787 children with type 1 diabetes were included. There was a reduction in the risk of childhood type 1 diabetes in children born to mothers after interbirth intervals <3 years compared with longer interbirth intervals (OR 0.82 [95% CI 0.72-0.93]). Adjustments for various potential confounders little altered this estimate. In conclusion, there was evidence of a 20% reduction in the risk of childhood diabetes in children born to mothers after interbirth intervals <3 years.