TNM 8 staging system beyond p16: Double HPV/p16 status is superior to p16 alone in predicting outcome in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

PURPOSE: The assessment of p16INK4a (p16) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) has been incorporated into tumor classification, as p16 has been shown to impact survival probability. However, a recent study demonstrated that human papillomavirus (HPV) status in addition to p16 may have a better discriminatory effect on survival probability. This study aims to determine the impact of combined evaluation of p16 and HPV on prognosis. METHODS: This was a multicenter, multinational analysis including retrospective and prospective cohorts of patients treated for primary OPSCC with curative intent, based on the data of the HNCIG-EPIC study. The primary outcome was to determine how the combined assessment of HPV and p16 status predicts prognosis of patients with OPSCC compared to p16 assessment alone. We employed multivariable analyses models to compute hazard ratios regarding survival. Analyses were stratified by stage, smoking status, and sub-anatomical region. RESULTS: The study included 7654 patients, with approximately half of the tumors being p16-negative (50.3 %, n = 3849). A total of 9.2 % of patients had discordant p16 and HPV status (n = 704). HPV status significantly impacted overall survival and disease-free survival regardless of p16 status and across both UICC 8th stage I-II and III-IVb cancers. p16-positive/HPV-positive OPSCC patients exhibited the best survival probability. CONCLUSION: The detection of HPV had a significant impact on survival probability for OPSCC patients with both p16-positive and p16-negative tumors. HPV testing should be integrated in cancer staging, especially in regions of low attributable fraction, alongside p16 evaluation to ensure a comprehensive assessment of prognosis.

Proof of Concept Study: Comparability of Microbiome Diversity in Self- and Physician-Collected HPV-Positive and HPV-Negative Cervicovaginal Samples.

Recent studies have revealed the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections on the cervicovaginal microbiome; however, few have explored the utility of self-collected specimens (SCS) for microbiome detection, obtained using standardised methods for HPV testing. Here, we present a proof-of-concept analysis utilising Oxford Nanopore sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene in paired samples collected either by the patient using an Evalyn Brush or collected by a physician using liquid-based cytology (LBC). We found no significant differences in the α-diversity estimates between the SCS and LBC samples. Similarly, when analysing ß-diversity, we observed a close grouping of paired samples, indicating that both collection methods detected the same microbiome features. The identification of genera and Lactobacillus species in each sample allowed for their classification into community state types (CSTs). Notably, paired samples had the same CST, while HPV-positive and -negative samples belonged to distinct CSTs. As previously described in other studies, HPV-positive samples exhibited heightened bacterial diversity, reduced Lactobacillus abundance, and an increase in genera like Sneathia or Dialister. Altogether, this study showed comparable results between the SCS and LBC samples, underscoring the potential of self-sampling for analysing the microbiome composition in cervicovaginal samples initially collected for HPV testing in the context of cervical cancer screening.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cervical cancer screening participation, abnormal cytology prevalence and screening interval in Catalonia.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic led to a national lockdown and the interruption of all cancer preventive services, including cervical cancer screening. We aimed to assess the COVID-19 pandemic impact on opportunistic screening participation, abnormal cytology (ASCUS+) prevalence and screening interval in 2020 and 2021 within the Public Health System of Catalonia, Spain. Methods: Individual data on cytology and HPV testing of women aged 25-65 from 2014 to 2021 were retrieved from the Information System for Primary Care Services (SISAP). Time-series regression models were used to estimate expected screening participation and abnormal cytology prevalence in 2020 and 2021. The impact was determined by comparing observed and expected values (ratios). Additionally, changes in screening interval trends between 2014 and 2021 were assessed by fitting a Piecewise linear regression model. Results: Cervical cancer screening participation decreased by 38.8% and 2.2% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with the most significant impact on participation (-96.1%) occurring in April 2020. Among older women, participation was lower, and it took longer to recover. Abnormal cytology prevalence was 1.4 times higher than expected in 2020 and 2021, with variations by age (range=1.1-1.5). From June 2020 onwards, the screening interval trend significantly changed from an increase of 0.59 to 3.57 months per year, resulting in a median time of 48 months by December 2021. Conclusions: During the pandemic, fewer women have participated in cervical cancer screening, abnormal cytology prevalence has increased, and the screening interval is more prolonged than before. The potential cervical cancer lifetime risk implications highlight the need for organized HPV-based screening.

Assessing the reduction of viral infectivity in HPV16/18-positive women after one, two, and three doses of Gardasil-9 (RIFT): Study protocol.

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) prophylactic vaccination has proven effective in preventing new infections, but it does not treat existing HPV infections or associated diseases. Hence, there is still an important reservoir of HPV in adults, as vaccination programs are mainly focused on young women. The primary objective of this non-randomized, open-label trial is to evaluate if a 3-dose regimen of Gardasil-9 in HPV16/18-positive women could reduce the infective capacity of their body fluids. We aim to assess if vaccine-induced antibodies could neutralize virions present in the mucosa, thus preventing the release of infective particles and HPV transmission to sexual partners. As our main endpoint, the E1^E4-HaCaT model will be used to assess the infectivity rate of cervical, anal and oral samples, obtained from women before and after vaccination. HPV DNA positivity, virion production, seroconversion, and the presence of antibodies in the exudates, will be evaluated to attribute infectivity reduction to vaccination. Our study will recruit two different cohorts (RIFT-HPV1 and RIFT-HPV2) of non-vaccinated adult women. RIFT-HPV1 will include subjects with an HPV16/18 positive cervical test and no apparent cervical lesions or cervical lesions eligible for conservative treatment. RIFT-HPV2 will include subjects with an HPV16/18 positive anal test and no apparent anal lesions or anal lesions eligible for conservative treatment, as well as women with an HPV16/18 positive cervical test and HPV-associated vulvar lesions. Subjects complying with inclusion criteria for both cohorts will be recruited to the main cohort, RIFT-HPV1. Three doses of Gardasil-9 will be administered intramuscularly at visit 1 (0 months), visit 2 (2 months) and visit 3 (6 months). Even though prophylactic HPV vaccines would not eliminate a pre-existing infection, our results will determine if HPV vaccination could be considered as a new complementary strategy to prevent HPV-associated diseases by reducing viral spread. Trial registration: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05334706.

Exploring self-care and cervical cancer prevention attitudes and practices among Moroccan and Pakistani immigrant women in Catalonia, Spain: a comparative qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Self-care and preventive health strategies may trigger health inequities when individuals' cultural values and health beliefs are not fully understood and considered. In the case of cervical cancer (CC) screening programs immigrant women have shown lower attendance compared with native women, which increases the risk of late diagnosis and, consequently, a lower probability of survival. HPV self-sampling for CC screening has been recently added to the World Health Organization's (WHO) list of self-care interventions as a promising tool to reduce this disparity and improve screening coverage. In Catalonia, Spain, the introduction of HPV self-sampling as a part of the new population-based CC screening program, is a significant step. However, there is a lack of research addressing self-care and prevention among immigrant populations in this region. This study aims to fill this gap exploring self-care and prevention attitudes and practices among Moroccan and Pakistani women. METHODS: We conducted focus groups and individual interviews with 36 Moroccan and 37 Pakistani women in Barcelona, Spain. The topic guide of the focus groups included case vignettes to stimulate the discussion and a semi-structured questionnaire was used for the interviews. RESULTS: Our findings show that most Moroccan and Pakistani women do not prioritize self-care and prevention. They seek care for symptom treatment rather than disease prevention. In this sense, they reported not having the habit of doing regular check-ups and their self-care and prevention attitudes and practices seemed to be conditioned by cultural values. The implementation of an effective call and recall system could enhance the engagement of these populations with CC screening services. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence on how universal concepts of self-care and prevention may not aligned with more collectivist societies, emphasizing the limited applicability and motivation of global self-care interventions guidelines for individuals with different cultural backgrounds and values. Therefore, the successful implementation of CC screening programs or any other self-care intervention requires the adoption of culturally appropriate strategies.

Cervical cancer screening coverage in the Americas region: a synthetic analysis.

Background: The Americas region has the lowest (North America) and the second highest (Latin America and Caribbean) cervical cancer (CC) mortality worldwide. The lack of reliable data on screening coverage in the region hinders proper monitoring of the World Health Organization (WHO) CC elimination initiative. Methods: For this synthetic analysis, we searched data on CC screening coverage from official sources and national health surveys, supplemented with a formal WHO country consultation. Context data were obtained from official sources (income, health expenditure, inequality-adjusted human development index -IHDI-, universal health coverage, CC incidence/mortality). Country age-specific coverages for 2019 by screening interval were computed. Missing data were imputed through a multi-step algorithm. Beta-regression and Poisson-regression models were used to analyse associations between context variables, screening coverage, and CC mortality. Findings: We included data from 37 countries in the Americas. Data on coverage of HPV testing was scarce, and for many countries only Pap-smear coverage data was available. Overall, 78%, 34%, 60%, and 67% of women aged 25-65 years have been screened ever in their lifetime, and in the previous year, 3 years, and 5 years, respectively. By sub-region, 3-year coverage ranges from 48% (South America) to 72% (North America). Twenty-four countries showed screening coverage below 70%. Income and health system type were associated with screening coverage, but coverage was not associated with CC mortality. Interpretation: In the Americas region 35.1% and 56.8% of countries report 3-year and 5-year coverage over 70%, respectively. Inequalities remain a major challenge for screening programs in the region. The elimination campaign should reinforce the transition to HPV testing and strengthen surveillance systems. Funding: Instituto de Salud Carlos III, European Regional Development Fund, Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Department of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia, and Horizon 2020.

Scientific approaches toward improving cervical cancer elimination strategies.

At the 2023 EUROGIN workshop scientific basis for strategies to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer and its causative agent, human papillomavirus (HPV) were reviewed. Although some countries have reached key performance indicators toward elimination (>90% of girls HPV vaccinated and >70% of women HPV screened), most are yet to reach these targets, implying a need for improved strategies. Gender-neutral vaccination, even with moderate vaccination coverage was highlighted as a strategy to achieve elimination more rapidly. It is more resilient against major disturbances in vaccination delivery, such as what happened during the coronavirus pandemic. Further, an analysis of ethical/legal issues indicated that female-restricted vaccination is problematic. Extended catch-up of vaccination with concomitant screening, and outreach to vulnerable groups were highlighted. Although birth cohorts with high coverage of HPV vaccination at school are protected against HPV, and HPVs have a very low reproductive rate in women above age 35, adult women below age 30 have inadequate direct protection. In addition to herd protection from gender-neutral vaccination, this group can be protected by offering concomitant catch-up HPV vaccination and HPV screening. Furthermore, hepatitis B vaccination experiences indicate that elimination cannot be achieved without prioritizing vulnerable/migrant populations. The long-lasting durability of vaccination-induced antibody responses suggests prolonged protection with HPV vaccines when adequately administrated. Finally, cost-effectiveness modelling suggests that high-coverage HPV vaccination in multiple population segments will be resource-saving due to reduced need for screening. In summary, the workshop found that strategically optimal deployment of vaccination will accelerate elimination of HPV and cervical cancer.

Global and regional estimates of genital human papillomavirus prevalence among men: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of human papillomavirus (HPV) in women has been well documented. Less is known about the epidemiology of HPV in men. We aim to provide updated global and regional pooled overall, type-specific, and age-specific prevalence estimates of genital HPV infection in men. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the prevalence of genital HPV infection in the general male population. We searched Embase, Ovid MEDLINE, and the Global Index Medicus for studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and June 1, 2022. Inclusion criteria were population-based surveys in men aged 15 years or older or HPV prevalence studies with a sample size of at least 50 men with no HPV-related pathology or known risk factors for HPV infection that collected samples from anogenital sites and used PCR or hybrid capture 2 techniques for HPV DNA detection. Exclusion criteria were studies conducted among populations at increased risk of HPV infection, exclusively conducted among circumcised men, and based on urine or semen samples. We screened identified reports and extracted summary-level data from those that were eligible. Data were extracted by two researchers independently and reviewed by a third, and discrepancies were resolved by consensus. We extracted only data on mucosal α-genus HPVs. Global and regional age-specific prevalences for any HPV, high-risk (HR)-HPV, and individual HPV types were estimated using random-effects models for meta-analysis and grouped by UN Sustainable Development Goals geographical classification. FINDINGS: We identified 5685 publications from database searches, of which 65 studies (comprising 44 769 men) were included from 35 countries. The global pooled prevalence was 31% (95% CI 27-35) for any HPV and 21% (18-24) for HR-HPV. HPV-16 was the most prevalent HPV genotype (5%, 95% CI 4-7) followed by HPV-6 (4%, 3-5). HPV prevalence was high in young adults, reaching a maximum between the ages of 25 years and 29 years, and stabilised or slightly decreased thereafter. Pooled prevalence estimates were similar for the UN Sustainable Development Goal geographical regions of Europe and Northern America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Australia and New Zealand (Oceania). The estimates for Eastern and South-Eastern Asia were half that of the other regions. INTERPRETATION: Almost one in three men worldwide are infected with at least one genital HPV type and around one in five men are infected with one or more HR-HPV types. Our findings show that HPV prevalence is high in men over the age of 15 years and support that sexually active men, regardless of age, are an important reservoir of HPV genital infection. These estimates emphasise the importance of incorporating men in comprehensive HPV prevention strategies to reduce HPV-related morbidity and mortality in men and ultimately achieve elimination of cervical cancer and other HPV-related diseases. FUNDING: Instituto de Salud Carlos III, European Regional Development Fund, Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Department of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia, and Horizon 2020. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and French translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

HPV self-sampling among cervical cancer screening users in Spain: A randomized clinical trial of on-site training to increase the acceptability.

A randomized clinical trial was conducted to compare the impact of two different instructions on vaginal self-sampling in its acceptability and willingness for future screening rounds among women attending cervical cancer screening (CCS). From November 2018 to May 2021, women aged 30-65 living in Spain attending CCS were randomized 1:1 in two arms. In the "On-site training arm (TRA)", women took a self-sample at the primary health care centre following provider's instructions. In the "No on-site training arm (NO-TRA)" women only received instructions to take self-sample at home. All women had to return a new sample collected at home one month after the baseline visit and an acceptability questionnaire. The proportion of self-samples returned, and acceptability was computed by the study arm. A total of 1158 women underwent randomization, 579 women per arm. At follow-up, women in TRA were more likely to return the home sample than women in the NO-TRA (82.4% and 75.5% respectively; p = 0.005). Over 87% of all participants favoured home-based self-sampling approach for future CCS, similar by arm. Over 80% of women in both arms chose to collect and return the self-sample at a health centre or pharmacy. Home-based self-sampling was a highly accepted strategy for CCS in Spain. Trying it first with prior on-site training at the health centre significantly increased the sample's return suggesting that a provider's supervision raised confidence and adherence. It is an option to consider when moving to self-sampling in established CCS. Preferred delivery sites most likely contextual. Registration on ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05314907.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of molecular testing in minimally invasive samples to detect endometrial cancer in women with postmenopausal bleeding.

INTRODUCTION: New approaches are being developed to early detect endometrial cancer using molecular biomarkers. These approaches offer high sensitivities and specificities, representing a promising horizon to develop early detection strategies. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of introducing molecular testing to detect endometrial cancer in women with postmenopausal bleeding compared to the current strategy using the national healthcare service perspective. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to assess the two early detection strategies. The model predicts the number of hysterectomies, lifetime expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years, endometrial cancer prevalence and incidence, mortality from endometrial cancer and the lifetime cost of screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: The molecular strategy reduces 1.9% of the overall number of hysterectomies and the number of undetected cancer cases by 65%. Assuming a molecular test cost of 310€, the molecular strategy has an incremental cost of -32,952€ per QALY gained, being more effective and less expensive than the current strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of molecular testing to diagnose endometrial cancer in women presenting postmenopausal bleeding provides more health benefit at a lower cost, and therefore has the potential to be cost-effective.

Prognostic implications of p16 and HPV discordance in oropharyngeal cancer (HNCIG-EPIC-OPC): a multicentre, multinational, individual patient data analysis.

BACKGROUND: p16INK4a (p16) immunohistochemistry is the most widely used biomarker assay for inferring HPV causation in oropharyngeal cancer in clinical and trial settings. However, discordance exists between p16 and HPV DNA or RNA status in some patients with oropharyngeal cancer. We aimed to clearly quantify the extent of discordance, and its prognostic implications. METHODS: In this multicentre, multinational individual patient data analysis, we did a literature search in PubMed and Cochrane database for systematic reviews and original studies published in English between Jan 1, 1970, and Sept 30, 2022. We included retrospective series and prospective cohorts of consecutively recruited patients previously analysed in individual studies with minimum cohort size of 100 patients with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx. Patient inclusion criteria were diagnosis with a primary squamous cell carcinoma of oropharyngeal cancer; data on p16 immunohistochemistry and on HPV testing; information on age, sex, tobacco, and alcohol use; staging by TNM 7th edition; information on treatments received; and data on clinical outcomes and follow-up (date of last follow-up if alive, date of recurrence or metastasis, and date and cause of death). There were no limits on age or performance status. The primary outcomes were the proportion of patients of the overall cohort who showed the different p16 and HPV result combinations, as well as 5-year overall survival and 5-year disease-free survival. Patients with recurrent or metastatic disease or who were treated palliatively were excluded from overall survival and disease-free survival analyses. Multivariable analysis models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for different p16 and HPV testing methods for overall survival, adjusted for prespecified confounding factors. FINDINGS: Our search returned 13 eligible studies that provided individual data for 13 cohorts of patients with oropharyngeal cancer from the UK, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Spain. 7895 patients with oropharyngeal cancer were assessed for eligibility. 241 were excluded before analysis, and 7654 were eligible for p16 and HPV analysis. 5714 (74·7%) of 7654 patients were male and 1940 (25·3%) were female. Ethnicity data were not reported. 3805 patients were p16-positive, 415 (10·9%) of whom were HPV-negative. This proportion differed significantly by geographical region and was highest in the areas with lowest HPV-attributable fractions (r=-0·744, p=0·0035). The proportion of patients with p16+/HPV- oropharyngeal cancer was highest in subsites outside the tonsil and base of tongue (29·7% vs 9·0%, p<0·0001). 5-year overall survival was 81·1% (95% CI 79·5-82·7) for p16+/HPV+, 40·4% (38·6-42·4) for p16-/HPV-, 53·2% (46·6-60·8) for p16-/HPV+, and 54·7% (49·2-60·9) for p16+/HPV-. 5-year disease-free survival was 84·3% (95% CI 82·9-85·7) for p16+/HPV+, 60·8% (58·8-62·9) for p16-/HPV-; 71·1% (64·7-78·2) for p16-/HPV+, and 67·9% (62·5-73·7) for p16+/HPV-. Results were similar across all European sub-regions, but there were insufficient numbers of discordant patients from North America to draw conclusions in this cohort. INTERPRETATION: Patients with discordant oropharyngeal cancer (p16-/HPV+ or p16+/HPV-) had a significantly worse prognosis than patients with p16+/HPV+ oropharyngeal cancer, and a significantly better prognosis than patients with p16-/HPV- oropharyngeal cancer. Along with routine p16 immunohistochemistry, HPV testing should be mandated for clinical trials for all patients (or at least following a positive p16 test), and is recommended where HPV status might influence patient care, especially in areas with low HPV-attributable fractions. FUNDING: European Regional Development Fund, Generalitat de Catalunya, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) UK, Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council UK, and The Swedish Cancer Foundation and the Stockholm Cancer Society.

Cervical cancer screening programs in Latin America: current recommendations for facing elimination challenges.

OBJECTIVE: To describe current cervical cancer screening program guidelines in Latin America. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched official recommendations for the general population and women living with HIV (WLHIV) by reviewing official sources from 19 countries; these data were supplemented with a consultation carried out by the WHO with the Ministries of Health. RESULTS: Screening policies vary significantly in regard to target populations, primary tests, and screening intervals. Sixteen countries have recently updated their recommendations; however, cytology remains the primary screening test for most countries. Eleven countries have introduced HPV tests, and eight countries have implemented screen-and-treat algorithms; only three countries have developed evidence-based guidelines. All countries but Costa Rica have specific recommendations for WLHIV. CONCLUSIONS: Although most countries have updated their screening policies, only a few are properly alig-ned with the WHO elimination strategy. Recommendations for WLHIV require better integration with cervical cancer screening programs.

Cervical cancer screening programmes and age-specific coverage estimates for 202 countries and territories worldwide: a review and synthetic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening coverage is a key monitoring indicator of the WHO cervical cancer elimination plan. We present global, regional, and national cervical screening coverage estimates against the backdrop of the 70% coverage target set by WHO. METHODS: In this review and synthetic analysis, we searched scientific literature, government websites, and official documentation to identify official national recommendations and coverage data for cervical cancer screening for the 194 WHO member states and eight associated countries and territories published from database inception until Oct 30, 2020, supplemented with a formal WHO country consultation from Nov 27, 2020, to Feb 12, 2021. We extracted data on the year of introduction of recommendations, the existence of individual invitation to participate, financing of screening tests, primary screening and triage tests used, recommended ages and screening intervals, use of self-sampling, and use of screen-and-treat approaches. We also collected coverage data, either administrative or survey-based, as disaggregated as possible by age and for any available screening interval. According to data completeness and representativeness, different statistical models were developed to produce national age-specific coverages by screening interval, which were transformed into single-age datapoints. Missing data were imputed. Estimates were applied to the 2019 population and aggregated by region and income level. FINDINGS: We identified recommendations for cervical screening in 139 (69%) of 202 countries and territories. Cytology was the primary screening test in 109 (78%) of 139 countries. 48 (35%) of 139 countries recommended primary HPV-based screening. Visual inspection with acetic acid was the most recommended test in resource-limited settings. Estimated worldwide coverage in women aged 30-49 years in 2019 was 15% in the previous year, 28% in the previous 3 years, and 32% in the previous 5 years, and 36% ever in lifetime. An estimated 1·6 billion (67%) of 2·3 billion women aged 20-70 years, including 662 million (64%) of 1·0 billion women aged 30-49 years, had never been screened for cervical cancer. 133 million (84%) of 158 million women aged 30-49 years living in high-income countries had been screened ever in lifetime, compared with 194 million (48%) of 404 million women in upper-middle-income countries, 34 million (9%) of 397 million women in lower-middle-income countries, and 8 million (11%) of 74 million in low-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Two in three women aged 30-49 years have never been screened for cervical cancer. Roll-out of screening is very low in low-income and middle-income countries, where the burden of disease is highest. The priority of the WHO elimination campaign should be to increase both screening coverage and treatment of detected lesions; however, expanding the efforts of surveillance systems in both coverage and quality control are major challenges to achieving the WHO elimination target. FUNDING: Instituto de Salud Carlos III, European Regional Development Fund, Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Department of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia, and Horizon 2020. TRANSLATIONS: For the French, Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A proposed new generation of evidence-based microsimulation models to inform global control of cervical cancer.

Health decision models are the only available tools designed to consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and the estimated long-term impact of preventive interventions. Yet health decision modeling results are often considered a lesser form of scientific evidence due to the inherent needs to rely on imperfect data and make numerous assumptions and extrapolations regarding complex processes. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses due to their subjectivity and lack of reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of subsequent transition probabilities. We posit that the new model health states (normal, carcinogenic HPV infection, precancer, cancer) and corollary transitions are universal, but that the probabilities of transitioning between states may vary by population. Evidence for this variability in host response to HPV infections can be inferred from HPV prevalence patterns in different regions across the lifespan, and might be linked to different average population levels of immunologic control of HPV infections. By prioritizing direct estimation of model transition probabilities from longitudinal data (and limiting reliance on model-fitting techniques that may propagate error when applied to multiple transitions), we aim to reduce the number of assumptions for greater transparency and reliability. We propose this new microsimulation model for critique and discussion, hoping to contribute to models that maximally inform efficient strategies towards global cervical cancer elimination.

HPV vaccination introduction worldwide and WHO and UNICEF estimates of national HPV immunization coverage 2010-2019.

WHO/UNICEF estimates for HPV vaccination coverage from 2010 to 2019 are analyzed against the backdrop of the 90% coverage target for HPV vaccination by 2030 set in the recently approved global strategy for cervical cancer elimination as a public health problem. As of June 2020, 107 (55%) of the 194 WHO Member States have introduced HPV vaccination. The Americas and Europe are by far the WHO regions with the most introductions, 85% and 77% of their countries having already introduced respectively. A record number of introductions was observed in 2019, most of which in low- and middle- income countries (LMIC) where access has been limited. Programs had an average performance coverage of around 67% for the first dose and 53% for the final dose of HPV. LMICs performed on average better than high- income countries for the first dose, but worse for the last dose due to higher dropout. Only 5 (6%) countries achieved coverages with the final dose of more than 90%, 22 countries (21%) achieved coverages of 75% or higher while 35 (40%) had a final dose coverage of 50% or less. When expressed as world population coverage (i.e., weighted by population size), global coverage of the final HPV dose for 2019 is estimated at 15%. There is a long way to go to meet the 2030 elimination target of 90%. In the post-COVID era attention should be paid to maintain the pace of introductions, specially ensuring the most populous countries introduce, and further improving program performance globally.

The European response to the WHO call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem.

The age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer in Europe varies widely by country (between 3 and 25/100000 women-years) in 2018. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage is low in countries with the highest incidence and screening performance is heterogeneous among European countries. A broad group of delegates of scientific professional societies and cancer organisations endorse the principles of the WHO call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, also in Europe. All European nations should, by 2030, reach at least 90% HPV vaccine coverage among girls by the age of 15 years and also boys, if cost-effective; they should introduce organised population-based HPV-based screening and achieve 70% of screening coverage in the target age group, providing also HPV testing on self-samples for nonscreened or underscreened women; and to manage 90% of screen-positive women. To guide member states, a group of scientific professional societies and cancer organisations engage to assist in the rollout of a series of concerted evidence-based actions. European health authorities are requested to mandate a group of experts to develop the third edition of European Guidelines for Quality Assurance of Cervical Cancer prevention based on integrated HPV vaccination and screening and to monitor the progress towards the elimination goal. The occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic, having interrupted prevention activities temporarily, should not deviate stakeholders from this ambition. In the immediate postepidemic phase, health professionals should focus on high-risk women and adhere to cost-effective policies including self-sampling.

Determinants of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Uptake by Adult Women Attending Cervical Cancer Screening in 9 European Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Human papillomavirus-vaccinated cohorts, irrespective of age, will likely reduce their subsequent screening requirements, thus opening opportunities for global cost reduction and program sustainability. The determinants of uptake and completion of a 3-dose human papillomavirus vaccination program by adult women in a European context were estimated. STUDY DESIGN: This was an intervention study. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Study participants were women aged 25-45 years, attending opportunistic or population-based cervical cancer screening in Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom between April 2016 and May 2018. INTERVENTION: Study participants completed a questionnaire on awareness and attitudes on adult female human papillomavirus vaccination and were invited to receive free human papillomavirus vaccination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Main outcome measures were acceptance, uptake, and completion of vaccination schedule. Determinants of vaccine uptake were explored using multilevel logistic models in 2019. RESULTS: Among 3,646 participants, 2,748 (range by country=50%-96%) accepted vaccination, and 2,151 (range=30%-93%) received the full vaccination course. The factors associated with higher vaccine acceptance were previous awareness of adult female (OR=1.22, 95% CI=1.00, 1.48) and male (OR=1.59, 95% CI=1.28, 1.97) vaccination. Women in stable relationships (OR=0.56, 95% CI=0.45, 0.69) or with higher educational level (OR=0.76, 95% CI=0.63, 0.93) were more likely to refuse vaccination. Recruitment by postal invitation versus personal invitation from a healthcare professional resulted in lower vaccine acceptance (OR=0.13, 95% CI=0.02, 0.76). Vaccination coverage of >70% of adolescent girls in national public programs was of borderline significance in predicting human papillomavirus vaccine uptake (OR=3.23, 95% CI=0.95, 10.97). The main reasons for vaccine refusal were vaccine safety concerns (range=30%-59%) and the need for more information on human papillomavirus vaccines (range=1%-72%). No safety issues were experienced by vaccinated women. CONCLUSIONS: Acceptance and schedule completion were largely dependent on recruitment method, achieved coverage of national vaccination programs, and personal relationship status. Knowledge of benefits and safety reassurance may be critical to expanding vaccination target ages. Study results suggest that there are no major opinion barriers in adult women to human papillomavirus vaccination, especially when vaccination is offered face to face in healthcare settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT Number 2014-003177-42.