Association of novel adult cough subclasses with clinical characteristics and lung function across six decades of life in a prospective, community-based cohort in Australia: an analysis of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS).

BACKGROUND: Cough is a common yet heterogeneous condition. Little is known about the characteristics and course of cough in general populations. We aimed to investigate cough subclasses, their characteristics from childhood across six decades of life, and potential treatable traits in a community-based cohort. METHODS: For our analysis of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS), a prospective, community-based cohort study that began on Feb 23, 1968, and has so far followed up participants in Tasmania, Australia, at intervals of 10 years from a mean age of 7 years to a mean age of 53 years, we used data collected as part of the TAHS to distinguish cough subclasses among current coughers at age 53 years. For this analysis, participants who answered Yes to at least one cough-related question via self-report questionnaire were defined as current coughers and included in a latent class analysis of cough symptoms; participants who answered No to all nine cough-related questions were defined as non-coughers and excluded from this analysis. Two groups of longitudinal features were assessed from age 7 years to age 53 years: previously established longitudinal trajectories of FEV1, forced vital capacity [FVC], FEV1/FVC ratio, asthma, and allergies-identified via group-based trajectory analysis or latent class analysis-and symptoms at different timepoints, including asthma, current productive cough, ever chronic productive cough, current smoking, and second-hand smoking. FINDINGS: Of 8583 participants included at baseline in the TAHS, 6128 (71·4%) were traced and invited to participate in a follow-up between Sept 3, 2012, and Nov 8, 2016; 3609 (58·9%) of these 6128 returned the cough questionnaire. The mean age of participants in this analysis was 53 years (SD 1·0). 2213 (61·3%) of 3609 participants were defined as current coughers and 1396 (38·7%) were categorised as non-coughers and excluded from the latent class analysis. 1148 (51·9%) of 2213 participants in this analysis were female and 1065 (48·1%) were male. Six distinct cough subclasses were identified: 206 (9·3%) of 2213 participants had minimal cough, 1189 (53·7%) had cough with colds only, 305 (13·8%) had cough with allergies, 213 (9·6%) had intermittent productive cough, 147 (6·6%) had chronic dry cough, and 153 (6·9%) had chronic productive cough. Compared with people with minimal cough, and in contrast to other cough subclasses, people in the chronic productive cough and intermittent productive cough subclasses had worse lung function trajectories (FEV1 persistent low trajectory 2·9%, 6·4%, and 16·1%; p=0·0011, p<0·0001; FEV1/FVC early low-rapid decline trajectory 2·9%, 12·1%, and 13·0%; p=0·012, p=0·0007) and a higher prevalence of cough (age 53 years 0·0%, 32·4% [26·1-38·7], and 50·3% [42·5-58·2]) and asthma (age 53 years 6·3% [3·7-10·6], 26·9% [21·3-33·3], and 41·7% [24·1-49·7]) from age 7 years to age 53 years. INTERPRETATION: We identified potential treatable traits for six cough subclasses (eg, asthma, allergies, and active and passive smoking for productive cough). The required management of productive cough in primary care (eg, routine spirometry) might differ from that of dry cough if our findings are supported by other studies. Future population-based studies could apply our framework to address the heterogeneity and complexity of cough in the community. FUNDING: The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, The University of Melbourne, Clifford Craig Medical Research Trust of Tasmania, Victorian Asthma Foundation, Queensland Asthma Foundation, Tasmanian Asthma Foundation, The Royal Hobart Hospital Research Foundation, the Helen MacPherson Smith Trust, GlaxoSmithKline, and the China Scholarship Council.

Association between very to moderate preterm births, lung function deficits, and COPD at age 53 years: analysis of a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prematurity has been linked to reduced lung function up to age 33 years, but its long-term effects on lung function and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are unknown. To address this question, we investigated associations between prematurity, lung function, and COPD in the sixth decade of life using data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS). METHODS: Data were analysed from 1445 participants in the TAHS. Lung function was measured at 53 years of age. Gestational ages were very preterm (28 weeks to <32 weeks), moderate preterm (32 weeks to <34 weeks), late preterm (34 weeks to <37 weeks) and term (≥37 weeks). Linear and logistic regression models were fitted to investigate associations of prematurity with lung function measures (FEV1, forced vital capacity [FVC], FEV1/FVC ratio, forced expiratory flow at 25-75% of FVC [FEF25-75%], diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide [DLCO]) and COPD (post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC less than the lower limit of normal), adjusting for sex, age, height, parental smoking during pregnancy, number of older siblings, maternal age at birth, and childhood socioeconomic status. Interactions with smoking and asthma were also investigated. RESULTS: Of 3565 individuals with available data on gestational age from the TAHS cohort, 1445 (41%) participants were included in this study, 740 (51%) of whom were female. Compared with term birth, very to moderate preterm birth was significantly associated with an increased risk of COPD at age 53 years (odds ratio 2·9 [95% CI 1·1-7·7]). Very-to-moderate preterm birth was also associated with lower post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio (beta-coefficient -2·9% [95% CI -4·9 to -0·81]), FEV1 (-190 mL [-339 to -40]), DLCO (-0·55 mmol/min/kPa [-0·97 to -0·13]), and FEF25-75% (-339 mL/s [-664 to -14]). The association between very-to-moderate preterm birth and FEV1/FVC ratio was only significant among smokers (pinteraction=0·0082). Similar findings were observed for moderate preterm birth when analysed as a separate group. Compared with term birth, late preterm birth was not associated with lower FEV1/FVC ratio or COPD. INTERPRETATION: This is the first study to investigate the effect of prematurity on lung function into middle-age. Data show that very-to-moderate prematurity is associated with obstructive lung function deficits including COPD well into the sixth decade of life and that this effect is compounded by personal smoking. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia, European Union's Horizon 2020, The University of Melbourne, Clifford Craig Medical Research Trust of Tasmania, The Victorian, Queensland & Tasmanian Asthma Foundations, The Royal Hobart Hospital, Helen MacPherson Smith Trust, and GlaxoSmithKline.

Risk factors for chronic cough in adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Despite the challenges of diagnosing and managing adult patients with chronic cough, a systematic synthesis of evidence on aetiological risk factor is lacking. We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE to synthesize the current evidence for longitudinal associations between a wide range of risk factors and chronic cough in the general adult population, following the meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to assess the quality of the included studies. Fixed-effect meta-analysis was conducted where appropriate. Of 26 eligible articles, 16 domains of risk factors were assessed. There was consistent evidence that asthma (pooled adjusted OR [aOR] = 3.01; 95% CI: 2.33-3.70; I2  = 0%; number of articles [N] = 3) and low education levels/socioeconomic status (SES) (pooled aOR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.20-1.72; I2  = 0%; N = 3) were associated with an increased risk of chronic cough after adjusting for smoking and other confounders. While continuous smoking was associated with chronic cough (aOR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.36-2.26; I2  = 57%; N = 3), there was too little evidence to draw conclusions for occupational exposures, outdoor air pollution, early-life exposures, diet, snoring and other chronic conditions, including obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease and chronic pain. Asthma, persistent smoking and lower education/SES were associated with an increased risk of chronic cough. Longitudinal associations between other factors frequently mentioned empirically (i.e., occupational exposures, air pollution and chronic respiratory conditions) need further investigation, ideally with objective and standardized measurement.

Is asthma associated with COVID-19 infection? A UK Biobank analysis.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between asthma and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk is not clear and may be influenced by level of airway obstruction, asthma medication and known COVID-19 risk factors. We aimed to investigate COVID-19 risk in people with asthma. METHODS: We used UK Biobank data from all participants tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (n=107 412; 17 979 test positive). Questions at baseline defined ever asthma and asthma medications. Baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) was categorised into quartiles. Logistic regression modelled relationships between asthma, and asthma categories (age at onset, medications, FEV1 quartiles), and risk of SARS-CoV-2 positive test. We investigated modification by sex, ethnic group, smoking and body mass index. RESULTS: There was a reduced risk of a positive test associated with early-onset asthma (<13 years) (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84-0.99). This was found for participants with early-onset asthma who were male (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.78-0.98), nonsmokers (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.78-0.98), overweight/obese (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.93) and non-Black (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.98). There was increased risk amongst early-onset individuals with asthma in the highest compared to lowest quartile of lung function (1.44, 1.05-1.72). CONCLUSION: Amongst male, nonsmoking, overweight/obese and non-Black participants, having early-onset asthma was associated with lower risk of a SARS-CoV-2 positive test. We found no evidence of a protective effect from asthma medication. Individuals with early-onset asthma of normal weight and with better lung function may have lifestyle differences placing them at higher risk. Further research is needed to elucidate the contribution of asthma pathophysiology and different health-related behaviour, across population groups, to the observed risks.

Ten-year prediction model for post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction and early detection of COPD: development and validation in two middle-aged population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Classifying individuals at high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-risk creates opportunities for early COPD detection and active intervention. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a statistical model to predict 10-year probabilities of COPD defined by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO; forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity<5th percentile). SETTING: General Caucasian populations from Australia and Europe, 10 and 27 centres, respectively. PARTICIPANTS: For the development cohort, questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma, occupation and participant sex were from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) participants at age 41-45 years (n=5729) who did not have self-reported COPD/emphysema at baseline but had post-BD spirometry and smoking status at age 51-55 years (n=2407). The validation cohort comprised participants from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II and III (n=5970), restricted to those of age 40-49 and 50-59 with complete questionnaire and spirometry/smoking data, respectively (n=1407). STATISTICAL METHOD: Risk-prediction models were developed using randomForest then externally validated. RESULTS: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC) of the final model was 80.8% (95% CI 80.0% to 81.6%), sensitivity 80.3% (77.7% to 82.9%), specificity 69.1% (68.7% to 69.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) 11.1% (10.3% to 11.9%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.7% (98.5% to 98.9%). The external validation was fair (AUCROC 75.6%), with the PPV increasing to 17.9% and NPV still 97.5% for adults aged 40-49 years with ≥1 respiratory symptom. To illustrate the model output using hypothetical case scenarios, a 43-year-old female unskilled worker who smoked 20 cigarettes/day for 30 years had a 27% predicted probability for post-BD-AO at age 53 if she continued to smoke. The predicted risk was 42% if she had coexistent active asthma, but only 4.5% if she had quit after age 43. CONCLUSION: This novel and validated risk-prediction model could identify adults aged in their 40s at high 10-year COPD-risk in the general population with potential to facilitate active monitoring/intervention in predicted 'COPD cases' at a much earlier age.

Predictors of lung function trajectories in population-based studies: A systematic review.

Despite the growing body of evidence on lung function trajectories over the life course and their risk factors, the literature has not been systematically synthesized. Publications related to lung function trajectories were identified from PubMed, EMBASE and CINAHL databases. Two authors independently identified publications for inclusion according to predefined selection criteria. Studies that modelled lung function trajectories and reported associated exposures were included. Meta-analyses could not be conducted due to heterogeneity in the exposures and methods used to model lung function trajectories. Nine publications were eligible for inclusion of which four used group-based trajectory modelling to model lung function trajectories, while five used latent profile analysis. Studies with repeated lung function measurements over the life course identified more trajectories than others. Only one study spanning from childhood to middle age reported catch-up trajectory. The following childhood risk factors for subnormal lung function trajectories were observed in at least across two studies: low birth weight, early wheezing, asthma, allergic sensitization, eczema, allergic rhinitis, lower respiratory tract infections, family history of asthma and second-hand smoke exposure. Adult active asthma and personal cigarette smoking were observed to be associated with accelerated decline lung trajectories. Our review identified 10 risk factors associated with the growth, catch-up, reduced plateau and decline trajectories of lung function. Intervention directed at childhood asthma and infections, and tobacco smoke exposure at all ages would help promote lung health and prevent subnormal lung function trajectories.

Lung function trajectory and biomarkers in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Different lung function trajectories through life can lead to COPD in adulthood. This study investigated whether circulating levels of biomarkers can differentiate those with accelerated (AD) from normal decline (ND) trajectories. METHODS: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) is a general population study that measured spirometry and followed up participants from ages 7 to 53 years. Based on their forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) trajectories from age 7 to 53 years, this analysis included those with COPD at age 53 years (60 with AD and 94 with ND) and controls (n=720) defined as never-smokers with an average FEV1 trajectory. Circulating levels of selected biomarkers determined at 53 and 45 years of age were compared between trajectories. RESULTS: Results showed that CC16 levels (an anti-inflammatory protein) were lower and C-reactive protein (CRP) (a pro-inflammatory marker) higher in the AD than in the ND trajectory. Higher CC16 levels were associated with a decreased risk of belonging to the AD trajectory (OR=0.79 (0.63-0.98) per unit increase) relative to ND trajectory. Higher CRP levels were associated with an increased risk of belonging to the AD trajectory (OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.00-1.13, per unit increase). Levels of CC16 (area under the curve (AUC)=0.69, 95% CI: 0.56-0.81, p=0.002), CRP (AUC=0.63, 95% CI: 0.53-0.72, p=0.01) and the combination of both (AUC=0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.83, p<0.001) were able to discriminate between the AD and ND trajectories. Other quantified biomarkers (interleukin (IL)-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10 and tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)) were not significantly different between AD, ND and controls. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating levels of CRP and CC16 measured in late adulthood identify different lung function trajectories (AD versus ND) leading to COPD at age 53 years.

Exposure to household air pollution over 10†years is related to asthma and lung function decline.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated if long-term household air pollution (HAP) is associated with asthma and lung function decline in middle-aged adults, and whether these associations were modified by glutathione S-transferase (GST) gene variants, ventilation and atopy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prospective data on HAP (heating, cooking, mould and smoking) and asthma were collected in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) at mean ages 43 and 53 years (n=3314). Subsamples had data on lung function (n=897) and GST gene polymorphisms (n=928). Latent class analysis was used to characterise longitudinal patterns of exposure. Regression models assessed associations and interactions. RESULTS: We identified seven longitudinal HAP profiles. Of these, three were associated with persistent asthma, greater lung function decline and % reversibility by age 53 years compared with the "Least exposed" reference profile for those who used reverse-cycle air conditioning, electric cooking and no smoking. The "All gas" (OR 2.64, 95% CI 1.22-5.70), "Wood heating/smoking" (OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.21-6.05) and "Wood heating/gas cooking" (OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.11-6.11) profiles were associated with persistent asthma, as well as greater lung function decline and % reversibility. Participants with the GSTP1 Ile/Ile genotype were at a higher risk of asthma or greater lung function decline when exposed compared with other genotypes. Exhaust fan use and opening windows frequently may reduce the adverse effects of HAP produced by combustion heating and cooking on current asthma, presumably through increasing ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: Exposures to wood heating, gas cooking and heating, and tobacco smoke over 10 years increased the risks of persistent asthma, lung function decline and % reversibility, with evidence of interaction by GST genes and ventilation.

Lifetime Risk Factors for Pre- and Post-Bronchodilator Lung Function Decline. A Population-based Study.

Rationale: Interactions between early life and adult insults on lung function decline are not well understood, with most studies investigating prebronchodilator (pre-BD) FEV1 decline.Objectives: To investigate relationships between adult risk factors and pre- and post-BD lung function decline and their potential effect modification by early life and genetic factors.Methods: Multiple regression was used to examine associations between adult exposures (asthma, smoking, occupational exposures, traffic pollution, and obesity) and decline in both pre- and post-BD spirometry (forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1], forced vital capacity [FVC], and FEV1/FVC) between ages 45 and 53 years in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (n = 857). Effect modification of these relationships by childhood respiratory risk factors, including low childhood lung function and GST (glutathione S-transferase) gene polymorphisms, was investigated.Results: Baseline asthma, smoking, occupational exposure to vapors/gases/dusts/fumes, and living close to traffic were associated with accelerated decline in both pre- and post-BD FEV1. These factors were also associated with FEV1/FVC decline. Occupational exposure to aromatic solvents was associated with pre-BD but not post-BD FEV1 decline. Maternal smoking accentuated the effect of personal smoking on pre- and post-BD FEV1 decline. Lower childhood lung function and having the GSTM1 null allele accentuated the effect of occupational exposure to vapors/gases/dusts/fumes and personal smoking on post-BD FEV1 decline. Incident obesity was associated with accelerated decline in FEV1 and more pronounced in FVC.Conclusions: This study provides new evidence for accentuation of individual susceptibility to adult risk factors by low childhood lung function, GSTM1 genotype, and maternal smoking.

Childhood Respiratory Risk Factor Profiles and Middle-Age Lung Function: A Prospective Cohort Study from the First to Sixth Decade.

RATIONALE: Childhood risk factors for long-term lung health often coexist and their specific patterns may affect subsequent lung function differently. OBJECTIVES: To identify childhood risk factor profiles and their influence on lung function and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in middle age, and potential pathways. METHODS: Profiles of 11 childhood respiratory risk factors, documented at age 7, were identified in 8,352 participants from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study using latent class analysis. We investigated associations between risk profiles and post-bronchodilator lung function and COPD at age 53, mediation by childhood lung function and adult asthma, and interaction with personal smoking. RESULTS: Six risk profiles were identified: 1) unexposed or least exposed (49%); 2) parental smoking (21.5%); 3) allergy (10%); 4) frequent asthma, bronchitis (8.7%); 5) infrequent asthma, bronchitis (8.3%); and 6) frequent asthma, bronchitis, allergy (2.6%). Profile 6 was most strongly associated with lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) (-261; 95% confidence interval, -373 to -148 ml); lower FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) (-3.4; -4.8 to -1.9%) and increased COPD risk (odds ratio, 4.9; 2.1 to 11.0) at age 53. The effect of profile 6 on COPD was largely mediated by adult active asthma (62.5%) and reduced childhood lung function (26.5%). Profiles 2 and 4 had smaller adverse effects than profile 6. Notably, the effects of profiles 2 and 6 were synergistically stronger for smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Profiles of childhood respiratory risk factors predict middle-age lung function levels and COPD risk. Specifically, children with frequent asthma attacks and allergies, especially if they also become adult smokers, are the most vulnerable group. Targeting active asthma in adulthood (i.e., a dominant mediator) and smoking (i.e., an effect modifier) may block causal pathways and lessen the effect of such established early-life exposures.

Childhood predictors of lung function trajectories and future COPD risk: a prospective cohort study from the first to the sixth decade of life.

BACKGROUND: Lifetime lung function is related to quality of life and longevity. Over the lifespan, individuals follow different lung function trajectories. Identification of these trajectories, their determinants, and outcomes is important, but no study has done this beyond the fourth decade. METHODS: We used six waves of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) to model lung function trajectories measured at 7, 13, 18, 45, 50, and 53 years. We analysed pre-bronchodilator FEV1 z-scores at the six timepoints using group-based trajectory modelling to identify distinct subgroups of individuals whose measurements followed a similar pattern over time. We related the trajectories identified to childhood factors and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using logistic regression, and estimated population-attributable fractions of COPD. FINDINGS: Of the 8583 participants in the original cohort, 2438 had at least two waves of lung function data at age 7 years and 53 years and comprised the study population. We identified six trajectories: early below average, accelerated decline (97 [4%] participants); persistently low (136 [6%] participants); early low, accelerated growth, normal decline (196 [8%] participants); persistently high (293 [12%] participants); below average (772 [32%] participants); and average (944 [39%] participants). The three trajectories early below average, accelerated decline; persistently low; and below average had increased risk of COPD at age 53 years compared with the average group (early below average, accelerated decline: odds ratio 35·0, 95% CI 19·5-64·0; persistently low: 9·5, 4·5-20·6; and below average: 3·7, 1·9-6·9). Early-life predictors of the three trajectories included childhood asthma, bronchitis, pneumonia, allergic rhinitis, eczema, parental asthma, and maternal smoking. Personal smoking and active adult asthma increased the impact of maternal smoking and childhood asthma, respectively, on the early below average, accelerated decline trajectory. INTERPRETATION: We identified six potential FEV1 trajectories, two of which were novel. Three trajectories contributed 75% of COPD burden and were associated with modifiable early-life exposures whose impact was aggravated by adult factors. We postulate that reducing maternal smoking, encouraging immunisation, and avoiding personal smoking, especially in those with smoking parents or low childhood lung function, might minimise COPD risk. Clinicians and patients with asthma should be made aware of the potential long-term implications of non-optimal asthma control for lung function trajectory throughout life, and the role and benefit of optimal asthma control on improving lung function should be investigated in future intervention trials. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; European Union's Horizon 2020; The University of Melbourne; Clifford Craig Medical Research Trust of Tasmania; The Victorian, Queensland & Tasmanian Asthma Foundations; The Royal Hobart Hospital; Helen MacPherson Smith Trust; and GlaxoSmithKline.