Ten-year prediction model for post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction and early detection of COPD: development and validation in two middle-aged population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Classifying individuals at high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-risk creates opportunities for early COPD detection and active intervention. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a statistical model to predict 10-year probabilities of COPD defined by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO; forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity<5th percentile). SETTING: General Caucasian populations from Australia and Europe, 10 and 27 centres, respectively. PARTICIPANTS: For the development cohort, questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma, occupation and participant sex were from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) participants at age 41-45 years (n=5729) who did not have self-reported COPD/emphysema at baseline but had post-BD spirometry and smoking status at age 51-55 years (n=2407). The validation cohort comprised participants from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II and III (n=5970), restricted to those of age 40-49 and 50-59 with complete questionnaire and spirometry/smoking data, respectively (n=1407). STATISTICAL METHOD: Risk-prediction models were developed using randomForest then externally validated. RESULTS: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC) of the final model was 80.8% (95% CI 80.0% to 81.6%), sensitivity 80.3% (77.7% to 82.9%), specificity 69.1% (68.7% to 69.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) 11.1% (10.3% to 11.9%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.7% (98.5% to 98.9%). The external validation was fair (AUCROC 75.6%), with the PPV increasing to 17.9% and NPV still 97.5% for adults aged 40-49 years with ≥1 respiratory symptom. To illustrate the model output using hypothetical case scenarios, a 43-year-old female unskilled worker who smoked 20 cigarettes/day for 30 years had a 27% predicted probability for post-BD-AO at age 53 if she continued to smoke. The predicted risk was 42% if she had coexistent active asthma, but only 4.5% if she had quit after age 43. CONCLUSION: This novel and validated risk-prediction model could identify adults aged in their 40s at high 10-year COPD-risk in the general population with potential to facilitate active monitoring/intervention in predicted 'COPD cases' at a much earlier age.

Lifetime Risk Factors for Pre- and Post-Bronchodilator Lung Function Decline. A Population-based Study.

Rationale: Interactions between early life and adult insults on lung function decline are not well understood, with most studies investigating prebronchodilator (pre-BD) FEV1 decline.Objectives: To investigate relationships between adult risk factors and pre- and post-BD lung function decline and their potential effect modification by early life and genetic factors.Methods: Multiple regression was used to examine associations between adult exposures (asthma, smoking, occupational exposures, traffic pollution, and obesity) and decline in both pre- and post-BD spirometry (forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1], forced vital capacity [FVC], and FEV1/FVC) between ages 45 and 53 years in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (n = 857). Effect modification of these relationships by childhood respiratory risk factors, including low childhood lung function and GST (glutathione S-transferase) gene polymorphisms, was investigated.Results: Baseline asthma, smoking, occupational exposure to vapors/gases/dusts/fumes, and living close to traffic were associated with accelerated decline in both pre- and post-BD FEV1. These factors were also associated with FEV1/FVC decline. Occupational exposure to aromatic solvents was associated with pre-BD but not post-BD FEV1 decline. Maternal smoking accentuated the effect of personal smoking on pre- and post-BD FEV1 decline. Lower childhood lung function and having the GSTM1 null allele accentuated the effect of occupational exposure to vapors/gases/dusts/fumes and personal smoking on post-BD FEV1 decline. Incident obesity was associated with accelerated decline in FEV1 and more pronounced in FVC.Conclusions: This study provides new evidence for accentuation of individual susceptibility to adult risk factors by low childhood lung function, GSTM1 genotype, and maternal smoking.

Interaction of Glutathione S-Transferase M1, T1, and P1 Genes With Early Life Tobacco Smoke Exposure on Lung Function in Adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Glutathione S-transferase (GST) genes are involved in the management of oxidative stress in the lungs. We aimed to determine whether they modify the associations between early life smoke exposure and adverse lung health outcomes. METHODS: The Melbourne Atopy Cohort study (a high-risk birth cohort) enrolled 620 children and followed them prospectively from birth. We recorded perinatal tobacco smoke exposure, asthma, and lung function at 12 (59%) and 18 years (66%) and genotyped for GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 (69%). RESULTS: GST genotypes were found to interact with tobacco smoke exposure on lung function outcomes (P interaction ≤ .05). Only among children with GSTT1 null genotypes was exposure to mother's, father's, or parental tobacco smoke in early life associated with an increased risk of reductions in prebronchodilator (BD) FEV1 and FVC at both 12 and 18 years. These associations were not seen in children with GSTT1 present. Similarly, only among children with GSTM1 null genotypes was exposure to father's or parental smoking associated with reductions in pre- and post-BD FEV1 and FVC at 18 years. Only among children with Ile/Ile genotypes of GSTP1 was exposure to mother's smoking associated with increased risk of reduced FEV1 at 18 years, but this was not the case among children with Val/Val or Ile/Val genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence of interaction between early tobacco smoke exposure and GST genotypes on lung function. Carriers of GST null mutations and GSTP1 Ile/Ile alleles may be more susceptible when exposed to tobacco smoke in early life. These findings support stronger recommendations to protect all infants from tobacco smoke exposure. TRIAL REGISTRY: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry; No.: ACTRN12609000734268; URL: http://www.anzctr.org.au/.

Childhood Respiratory Risk Factor Profiles and Middle-Age Lung Function: A Prospective Cohort Study from the First to Sixth Decade.

RATIONALE: Childhood risk factors for long-term lung health often coexist and their specific patterns may affect subsequent lung function differently. OBJECTIVES: To identify childhood risk factor profiles and their influence on lung function and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in middle age, and potential pathways. METHODS: Profiles of 11 childhood respiratory risk factors, documented at age 7, were identified in 8,352 participants from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study using latent class analysis. We investigated associations between risk profiles and post-bronchodilator lung function and COPD at age 53, mediation by childhood lung function and adult asthma, and interaction with personal smoking. RESULTS: Six risk profiles were identified: 1) unexposed or least exposed (49%); 2) parental smoking (21.5%); 3) allergy (10%); 4) frequent asthma, bronchitis (8.7%); 5) infrequent asthma, bronchitis (8.3%); and 6) frequent asthma, bronchitis, allergy (2.6%). Profile 6 was most strongly associated with lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) (-261; 95% confidence interval, -373 to -148 ml); lower FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) (-3.4; -4.8 to -1.9%) and increased COPD risk (odds ratio, 4.9; 2.1 to 11.0) at age 53. The effect of profile 6 on COPD was largely mediated by adult active asthma (62.5%) and reduced childhood lung function (26.5%). Profiles 2 and 4 had smaller adverse effects than profile 6. Notably, the effects of profiles 2 and 6 were synergistically stronger for smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Profiles of childhood respiratory risk factors predict middle-age lung function levels and COPD risk. Specifically, children with frequent asthma attacks and allergies, especially if they also become adult smokers, are the most vulnerable group. Targeting active asthma in adulthood (i.e., a dominant mediator) and smoking (i.e., an effect modifier) may block causal pathways and lessen the effect of such established early-life exposures.

Maternal age at delivery, lung function and asthma in offspring: a population-based survey.

There is limited information about potential impact of maternal age on the respiratory health of offspring. We investigated the association of maternal age at delivery with adult offspring's lung function, respiratory symptoms and asthma, and potential differences according to offspring sex.10 692 adults from 13 countries participating in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II responded to standardised interviews and provided lung function measurements and serum for IgE measurements at age 25-55 years. In logistic and linear multilevel mixed models we adjusted for participants' characteristics (age, education, centre, number of older siblings) and maternal characteristics (smoking in pregnancy, education) while investigating for differential effects by sex. Maternal age was validated in a subsample using data from the Norwegian birth registry.Increasing maternal age was associated with increasing forced expiratory volume in 1 s (2.33 mL per year, 95% CI 0.34-4.32 mL per year), more consistent in females (ptrend 0.025) than in males (ptrend 0.14). Asthma (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.79-0.92) and respiratory symptoms (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.92) decreased with increasing maternal age (per 5 years) in females, but not in males (pinteraction 0.05 and 0.001, respectively). The results were consistent across centres and not explained by confounding factors.Maternal ageing was related to higher adult lung function and less asthma/symptoms in females. Biological characteristics in offspring related to maternal ageing are plausible and need further investigation.

Childhood predictors of lung function trajectories and future COPD risk: a prospective cohort study from the first to the sixth decade of life.

BACKGROUND: Lifetime lung function is related to quality of life and longevity. Over the lifespan, individuals follow different lung function trajectories. Identification of these trajectories, their determinants, and outcomes is important, but no study has done this beyond the fourth decade. METHODS: We used six waves of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) to model lung function trajectories measured at 7, 13, 18, 45, 50, and 53 years. We analysed pre-bronchodilator FEV1 z-scores at the six timepoints using group-based trajectory modelling to identify distinct subgroups of individuals whose measurements followed a similar pattern over time. We related the trajectories identified to childhood factors and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using logistic regression, and estimated population-attributable fractions of COPD. FINDINGS: Of the 8583 participants in the original cohort, 2438 had at least two waves of lung function data at age 7 years and 53 years and comprised the study population. We identified six trajectories: early below average, accelerated decline (97 [4%] participants); persistently low (136 [6%] participants); early low, accelerated growth, normal decline (196 [8%] participants); persistently high (293 [12%] participants); below average (772 [32%] participants); and average (944 [39%] participants). The three trajectories early below average, accelerated decline; persistently low; and below average had increased risk of COPD at age 53 years compared with the average group (early below average, accelerated decline: odds ratio 35·0, 95% CI 19·5-64·0; persistently low: 9·5, 4·5-20·6; and below average: 3·7, 1·9-6·9). Early-life predictors of the three trajectories included childhood asthma, bronchitis, pneumonia, allergic rhinitis, eczema, parental asthma, and maternal smoking. Personal smoking and active adult asthma increased the impact of maternal smoking and childhood asthma, respectively, on the early below average, accelerated decline trajectory. INTERPRETATION: We identified six potential FEV1 trajectories, two of which were novel. Three trajectories contributed 75% of COPD burden and were associated with modifiable early-life exposures whose impact was aggravated by adult factors. We postulate that reducing maternal smoking, encouraging immunisation, and avoiding personal smoking, especially in those with smoking parents or low childhood lung function, might minimise COPD risk. Clinicians and patients with asthma should be made aware of the potential long-term implications of non-optimal asthma control for lung function trajectory throughout life, and the role and benefit of optimal asthma control on improving lung function should be investigated in future intervention trials. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; European Union's Horizon 2020; The University of Melbourne; Clifford Craig Medical Research Trust of Tasmania; The Victorian, Queensland & Tasmanian Asthma Foundations; The Royal Hobart Hospital; Helen MacPherson Smith Trust; and GlaxoSmithKline.

Childhood measles contributes to post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction in middle-aged adults: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has potential origins in childhood but an association between childhood measles and post-bronchodilator (BD) airflow obstruction (AO) has not yet been shown. We investigated whether childhood measles contributed to post-BD AO through interactions with asthma and/or smoking in a non-immunized middle-aged population. METHODS: The population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) cohort born in 1961 (n = 8583) underwent spirometry in 1968 before immunization was introduced. A history of childhood measles infection was obtained from school medical records. During the fifth decade follow-up (n = 5729 responses), a subgroup underwent further lung function measurements (n = 1389). Relevant main associations and interactions by asthma and/or smoking on post-BD forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (FEV1 /FVC; continuous variable) and AO (FEV1 /FVC < lower limit of normal) were estimated by multiple regression. RESULTS: Sixty-nine percent (n = 950) had a history of childhood measles. Childhood measles augmented the combined adverse effect of current clinical asthma and smoking at least 10 pack-years on post-BD FEV1 /FVC ratio in middle age (z-score: -0.70 (95% CI: -1.1 to -0.3) vs -1.36 (-1.6 to -1.1), three-way interaction: P = 0.009), especially for those with childhood-onset asthma. For never- and ever-smokers of <10 pack-years who had current asthma symptoms, compared with those without childhood measles, paradoxically, the odds for post-BD AO was not significant in the presence of childhood measles (OR: 12.0 (95% CI: 3.4-42) vs 2.17 (0.9-5.3)). CONCLUSION: Childhood measles infection appears to compound the associations between smoking, current asthma and post-BD AO. Differences between asthma subgroups provide further insight into the complex aetiology of obstructive lung diseases for middle-aged adults.

Polycystic ovary syndrome, body mass index and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: Some studies of women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) report increased prevalence of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, while others do not. Several of these studies do not control for obesity. We aimed to study whether PCOS is associated with hypertensive disorders in pregnancy and whether it is dependent on body mass index (BMI). STUDY DESIGN: We present a cross-sectional analysis of 3732 women from Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, born in 1945-72, who participated in the Respiratory Health In Northern Europe (RHINE) study and answered an extensive women's health questionnaire on menstruation, PCOS, infertility, pregnancy history and childbirth. The main outcome measurement was hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. We adjusted for smoking, age, infertility treatment and study center. Effect modification by BMI was assessed. RESULTS: PCOS was related to hypertensive disorders in pregnancy with a relative risk (RR) of 1.62 (95% CI 1.09-2.42). This relationship was found among underweight women with a BMI of <18.5 kg/m2 [RR = 5.2 (95% CI 1.66-16.5)] and obese women with a BMI of ≥30 kg/m2 [RR = 2.36 (95% CI 1.29-4.31)], but not among normal-weight women, BMI 18.5-25 kg/m2 [1.08 (0.53-2.20)], or overweight women, BMI 25-30 kg/m2 [1.24 (0.50-3.08)] (p-interaction = 0.041). CONCLUSION: Polycystic ovary syndrome is associated with hypertensive disorders in pregnancy. This association only occurs among underweight and obese women and not among normal-weight and slightly overweight women.

Bronchial hyperresponsiveness and obesity in middle age: insights from an Australian cohort.

The association between obesity and bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) is incompletely characterised. Using the 2006 follow-up of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study, we measured the association between obesity and BHR and whether it was mediated by small airway closure or modified by asthma and sex of the patient.A methacholine challenge measured BHR. Multivariable logistic regression measured associations between body mass index (BMI) and BHR, adjusting for sex, asthma, smoking, corticosteroid use, family history and lung function. Mediation by airway closure was also measured.Each increase in BMI of 1 kg·m-2 was associated with a 5% increase in the odds of BHR (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09) and 43% of this association was mediated by airway closure. In a multivariable model, BMI (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.16) was associated with BHR independent of female sex (OR 3.26, 95% CI 1.95-5.45), atopy (OR 2.30, 95% CI 1.34-3.94), current asthma (OR 5.74, 95% CI 2.79-11.82), remitted asthma (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.27-4.35), low socioeconomic status (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.03-4.31) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.91). Asthma modified the association with an increasing probability of BHR as BMI increased, only in those with no or remitted asthma.An important fraction of the BMI/BHR association was mediated via airway closure. Conflicting findings in previous studies could be explained by failure to consider this intermediate step.

Occupational exposures to solvents and metals are associated with fixed airflow obstruction.

Objectives This study investigated the associations between occupational exposures to solvents and metals and fixed airflow obstruction (AO) using post-bronchodilator spirometry. Methods We included 1335 participants from the 2002-2008 follow-up of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study. Ever-exposure and cumulative exposure-unit (EU) years were calculated using the ALOHA plus job exposure matrix (JEM). Fixed AO was defined as post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) <0.7 and FEV 1/FVC

Occupational exposure to pesticides are associated with fixed airflow obstruction in middle-age.

RATIONALE: Population-based studies have found evidence of a relationship between occupational exposures and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), but these studies are limited by the use of prebronchodilator spirometry. Establishing this link using postbronchodilator is critical, because occupational exposures are a modifiable risk factor for COPD. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the associations between occupational exposures and fixed airflow obstruction using postbronchodilator spirometry. METHODS: One thousand three hundred and thirty-five participants were included from 2002 to 2008 follow-up of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS). Spirometry was performed and lifetime work history calendars were used to collect occupational history. ALOHA plus Job Exposure Matrix was used to assign occupational exposure, and defined as ever exposed and cumulative exposure unit (EU)-years. Fixed airflow obstruction was defined by postbronchodilator FEV1/FVC <0.7 and the lower limit of normal (LLN). Multinomial logistic regressions were used to investigate potential associations while controlling for possible confounders. RESULTS: Ever exposure to biological dust (relative risk (RR)=1.58, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.48), pesticides (RR=1.74,95% CI 1.00 to 3.07) and herbicides (RR=2.09,95% CI 1.18 to 3.70) were associated with fixed airflow obstruction. Cumulative EU-years to all pesticides (RR=1.11,95% CI 1.00 to 1.25) and herbicides (RR=1.15,95% CI 1.00 to 1.32) were also associated with fixed airflow obstruction. In addition, all pesticides exposure was consistently associated with chronic bronchitis and symptoms that are consistent with airflow obstruction. Ever exposure to mineral dust, gases/fumes and vapours, gases, dust or fumes were only associated with fixed airflow obstruction in non-asthmatics only. CONCLUSIONS: Pesticides and herbicides exposures were associated with fixed airflow obstruction and chronic bronchitis. Biological dust exposure was also associated with fixed airflow obstruction in non-asthmatics. Minimising occupational exposure to these agents may help to reduce the burden of COPD.

Validity of the Berlin questionnaire in detecting obstructive sleep apnea: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

We aimed to systematically review the Berlin questionnaire as a screening tool for obstructive sleep apnea. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases, reviewed articles reporting the Berlin questionnaire's diagnostic utility as measured against type-1 polysomnography, and performed meta-analyses where possible. Thirty five eligible articles showed that the Berlin questionnaire's diagnostic utility varied by study population, definition of hypopnea used, and apnea-hypopnea index threshold used. It had good sensitivity and specificity for detecting clinically relevant obstructive sleep apnea as well as any obstructive sleep apnea in the sleep clinic population. Despite limited evidence, it showed modest to high sensitivity for detecting clinically relevant obstructive sleep apnea or any obstructive sleep apnea in other clinical and general population subgroups. Its specificity was relatively low. Possible reasons for variability in reported diagnostic utility of the Berlin questionnaire are multifaceted. We conclude that the Berlin questionnaire is useful as a clinical screening test and epidemiological tool in the sleep clinic population. Despite limited evidence, it likely has potential clinical and research utility in other populations. Adopting more consistent methodological definitions and focussing more on the general population and specific clinical populations to determine its usefulness as a clinical or epidemiological screening tool are recommended.

The Dose-Response Association between Nitrogen Dioxide Exposure and Serum Interleukin-6 Concentrations.

Systemic inflammation is an integral part of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and air pollution is associated with cardiorespiratory mortality, yet the interrelationships are not fully defined. We examined associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure (as a marker of traffic-related air pollution) and pro-inflammatory cytokines, and investigated effect modification and mediation by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO) and cardiovascular risk. Data from middle-aged participants in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS, n = 1389) were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression, using serum interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8 and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) as the outcome. Mean annual NO2 exposure was estimated at residential addresses using a validated satellite-based land-use regression model. Post-BD-AO was defined by post-BD forced expiratory ratio (FEV1/FVC) < lower limit of normal, and cardiovascular risk by a history of either cerebrovascular or ischaemic heart disease. We found a positive association with increasing serum IL-6 concentration (geometric mean 1.20 (95% CI: 1.1 to 1.3, p = 0.001) per quartile increase in NO2). This was predominantly a direct relationship, with little evidence for either effect modification or mediation via post-BD-AO, or for the small subgroup who reported cardiovascular events. However, there was some evidence consistent with serum IL-6 being on the causal pathway between NO2 and cardiovascular risk. These findings raise the possibility that the interplay between air pollution and systemic inflammation may differ between post-BD airflow obstruction and cardiovascular diseases.

Preterm birth and low birth weight continue to increase the risk of asthma from age 7 to 43.

BACKGROUND: Perinatal events can influence the development of asthma in childhood but current evidence is contradictory concerning the effects on life-time asthma risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between birth characteristics and asthma from childhood to adulthood. METHODOLOGY: All available birth records for the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) cohort, born in 1961 were obtained from the Tasmanian State Archives and Tasmanian hospitals. Low birth weight (LBW) was defined as less than 2500 grams. Preterm birth was defined as delivery before 37 weeks' gestation. Small for gestational age (SGA) was defined as a birth weight below the 10th percentile for a given gestational age. Multivariate logistic and cox regression were used to examine associations between birth characteristics and lifetime risk of current and incident asthma, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: The prevalence of LBW was 5.2%, SGA was 13.8% and preterm was 3.3%. LBW (OR = 1.65, 95%CI 1.12,2.44) and preterm birth (OR = 1.81, 95%CI 0.99, 3.31) were both associated with an increased risk of current asthma between the ages of 7 to 43 years. There was no association between SGA and current asthma risk. However, SGA was associated with incident asthma (HR = 1.32, 95%CI 1.00, 1.74), and there was an interaction with sex (p value = 0.08), with males having a greater risk of incident asthma (HR = 1.70, 95%CI 1.16-2.49) than females (HR = 1.04, 95%CI 0.70-1.54). CONCLUSIONS: Preterm birth and LBW were associated with an increased risk of current asthma into middle-age. These findings are the first to demonstrate the continuing impact of these characteristics on asthma risk into middle-age.

Current asthma contributes as much as smoking to chronic bronchitis in middle age: a prospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Personal smoking is widely regarded to be the primary cause of chronic bronchitis (CB) in adults, but with limited knowledge of contributions by other factors, including current asthma. We aimed to estimate the independent and relative contributions to adult CB from other potential influences spanning childhood to middle age. METHODS: The population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study cohort, people born in 1961, completed respiratory questionnaires and spirometry in 1968 (n=8,583). Thirty-seven years later, in 2004, two-thirds responded to a detailed postal survey (n=5,729), from which the presence of CB was established in middle age. A subsample (n=1,389) underwent postbronchodilator spirometry between 2006 and 2008 for the assessment of chronic airflow limitation, from which nonobstructive and obstructive CB were defined. Multivariable and multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate relevant associations. RESULTS: The prevalence of CB in middle age was 6.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.5, 6.8). Current asthma and/or wheezy breathing in middle age was independently associated with adult CB (odds ratio [OR]: 6.2 [95% CI: 4.6, 8.4]), and this estimate was significantly higher than for current smokers of at least 20 pack-years (OR: 3.0 [95% CI: 2.1, 4.3]). Current asthma and smoking in middle age were similarly associated with obstructive CB, in contrast to the association between allergy and nonobstructive CB. Childhood predictors included allergic history (OR: 1.3 [95% CI: 1.1, 1.7]), current asthma (OR: 1.8 [95% CI: 1.3, 2.7]), "episodic" childhood asthma (OR: 2.3 [95% CI: 1.4, 3.9]), and parental bronchitis symptoms (OR: 2.5 [95% CI: 1.6, 4.1]). CONCLUSION: The strong independent association between current asthma and CB in middle age suggests that this condition may be even more influential than personal smoking in a general population. The independent associations of childhood allergy and asthma, though not childhood bronchitis, as clinical predictors of adult CB raise the possibility of some of this burden having originated in childhood.

Clinical and functional differences between early-onset and late-onset adult asthma: a population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Differences between early-onset and late-onset adult asthma have not been comprehensively described using prospective data. AIMS: To characterise the differences between early-onset and late-onset asthma in a longitudinal cohort study. METHODS: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) is a population-based cohort. Respiratory histories and spirometry were first performed in 1968 when participants were aged 7 (n=8583). The cohort was traced and resurveyed from 2002 to 2005 (n=5729 responses) and a sample, enriched for asthma and bronchitis participated in a clinical study when aged 44 (n=1389). RESULTS: Of the entire TAHS cohort, 7.7% (95% CI 6.6% to 9.0%) had early-onset and 7.8% (95% CI 6.4% to 9.4%) late-onset asthma. Atopy and family history were more common in early-onset asthma while female gender, current smoking and low socioeconomic status were more common in late-onset asthma. The impact on lung function of early-onset asthma was significantly greater than for late-onset asthma (mean difference prebronchodilator (BD) FEV1/FVC -2.8% predicted (-5.3 to -0.3); post-BD FEV1FVC -2.6% predicted (-5.0 to -0.1)). However, asthma severity and asthma score did not significantly differ between groups. An interaction between asthma and smoking was identified and found to be associated with greater fixed airflow obstruction in adults with late-onset asthma. This interaction was not evident in adults with early-onset disease. CONCLUSIONS: Early-onset and late-onset adult asthma are equally prevalent in the middle-aged population. Major phenotypic differences occur with asthma age-of-onset; while both share similar clinical manifestations, the impact on adult lung function of early-onset asthma is greater than for late-onset asthma.

Childhood body mass index and adult mammographic density measures that predict breast cancer risk.

The aim of the present study is to determine if body mass index (BMI) during childhood is associated with the breast cancer risk factor 'adult mammographic density adjusted for age and BMI'. In 1968, the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study studied every Tasmanian school child born in 1961. We obtained measured heights and weights from annual school medical records across ages 7-15 years and imputed missing values. Between 2009 and 2012, we administered to 490 women a questionnaire that asked current height and weight and digitised at least one mammogram per woman. Absolute and percent mammographic densities were measured using the computer-assisted method CUMULUS. We used linear regression and adjusted for age at interview and log current BMI. The mammographic density measures were negatively associated: with log BMI at each age from 7 to 15 years (all p < 0.05); with the average of standardised log BMIs across ages 7-15 years (p < 0.0005); and more strongly with standardised log BMI measures closer to age 15 years (p < 0.03). Childhood BMI measures explained 7 and 10 % of the variance in absolute and percent mammographic densities, respectively, and 25 and 20 % of the association between current BMI and absolute and percent mammographic densities, respectively. Associations were not altered by adjustment for age at menarche. There is a negative association between BMI in late childhood and the adult mammographic density measures that predict breast cancer risk. This could explain, at least in part, why BMI in adolescence is negatively associated with breast cancer risk.

Occupational skin disease in Victoria, Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics of patients with occupational skin disease (OSD) in a tertiary referral clinic in Victoria, Australia. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted of records from patients seen at the Occupational Dermatology Clinic in Melbourne, Australia between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2010. RESULTS: Of the 2894 people assessed in the clinic during the 18-year period, 44% were women and 56% were men. In all, 2177 (75%) were diagnosed with occupational skin disease (OSD). Of the patients with a work-related skin condition, 45% (n = 979) were considered to be atopic. The most common diagnosis in those with OSD was irritant contact dermatitis (ICD) (44%), followed by allergic contact dermatitis (33%) and endogenous eczema (11%). Women were significantly more likely to have soaps and detergents (P < 0.001) and water/wet work (P < 0.001) as causes of their ICD than men. Men were significantly more likely to have oils and coolants (P < 0.001) and solvent exposures (P < 0.001) as causes of their ICD. Occupational groups with the highest incidence of OSD were the hair and beauty professions (70 per 100 000), followed by machine and plant operators (38 per 100 000) and health-care workers (21 per 100 000). CONCLUSION: We confirm the importance of occupational contact dermatitis as the most common cause of OSD, with ICD being the most common diagnosis. There are differences in the causes of ICD between our group of male and female workers. For the first time in Australia, rates of OSD in certain industries have been calculated.

Introduction to causal diagrams for confounder selection.

In respiratory health research, interest often lies in estimating the effect of an exposure on a health outcome. If randomization of the exposure of interest is not possible, estimating its effect is typically complicated by confounding bias. This can often be dealt with by controlling for the variables causing the confounding, if measured, in the statistical analysis. Common statistical methods used to achieve this include multivariable regression models adjusting for selected confounding variables or stratification on those variables. Therefore, a key question is which measured variables need to be controlled for in order to remove confounding. An approach to confounder-selection based on the use of causal diagrams (often called directed acyclic graphs) is discussed. A causal diagram is a visual representation of the causal relationships believed to exist between the variables of interest, including the exposure, outcome and potential confounding variables. After creating a causal diagram for the research question, an intuitive and easy-to-use set of rules can be applied, based on a foundation of rigorous mathematics, to decide which measured variables must be controlled for in the statistical analysis in order to remove confounding, to the extent that is possible using the available data. This approach is illustrated by constructing a causal diagram for the research question: 'Does personal smoking affect the risk of subsequent asthma?'. Using data taken from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study, the statistical analysis suggested by the causal diagram approach was performed.