Identifying therapeutic targets for cancer among 2074 circulating proteins and risk of nine cancers.

Circulating proteins can reveal key pathways to cancer and identify therapeutic targets for cancer prevention. We investigate 2,074 circulating proteins and risk of nine common cancers (bladder, breast, endometrium, head and neck, lung, ovary, pancreas, kidney, and malignant non-melanoma) using cis protein Mendelian randomisation and colocalization. We conduct additional analyses to identify adverse side-effects of altering risk proteins and map cancer risk proteins to drug targets. Here we find 40 proteins associated with common cancers, such as PLAUR and risk of breast cancer [odds ratio per standard deviation increment: 2.27, 1.88-2.74], and with high-mortality cancers, such as CTRB1 and pancreatic cancer [0.79, 0.73-0.85]. We also identify potential adverse effects of protein-altering interventions to reduce cancer risk, such as hypertension. Additionally, we report 18 proteins associated with cancer risk that map to existing drugs and 15 that are not currently under clinical investigation. In sum, we identify protein-cancer links that improve our understanding of cancer aetiology. We also demonstrate that the wider consequence of any protein-altering intervention on well-being and morbidity is required to interpret any utility of proteins as potential future targets for therapeutic prevention.

Proteome-wide association study and functional validation identify novel protein markers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains a lethal malignancy, largely due to the paucity of reliable biomarkers for early detection and therapeutic targeting. Existing blood protein biomarkers for PDAC often suffer from replicability issues, arising from inherent limitations such as unmeasured confounding factors in conventional epidemiologic study designs. To circumvent these limitations, we use genetic instruments to identify proteins with genetically predicted levels to be associated with PDAC risk. Leveraging genome and plasma proteome data from the INTERVAL study, we established and validated models to predict protein levels using genetic variants. By examining 8,275 PDAC cases and 6,723 controls, we identified 40 associated proteins, of which 16 are novel. Functionally validating these candidates by focusing on 2 selected novel protein-encoding genes, GOLM1 and B4GALT1, we demonstrated their pivotal roles in driving PDAC cell proliferation, migration, and invasion. Furthermore, we also identified potential drug repurposing opportunities for treating PDAC. SIGNIFICANCE: PDAC is a notoriously difficult-to-treat malignancy, and our limited understanding of causal protein markers hampers progress in developing effective early detection strategies and treatments. Our study identifies novel causal proteins using genetic instruments and subsequently functionally validates selected novel proteins. This dual approach enhances our understanding of PDAC etiology and potentially opens new avenues for therapeutic interventions.

Dietary intake of plant- and animal-derived protein and incident cardiovascular diseases: the pan-European EPIC-CVD case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence suggests that a potential association between dietary protein intake and cardiovascular disease (CVD) may depend on the protein source, that is, plant- or animal-derived, but past research was limited and inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association of dietary plant- or animal-derived protein consumption with risk of CVD, and its components ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. METHODS: This analysis in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD case-cohort study included 16,244 incident CVD cases (10,784 IHD and 6423 stroke cases) and 15,141 subcohort members from 7 European countries. We investigated the association of estimated dietary protein intake with CVD, IHD, and stroke (total, fatal, and nonfatal) using multivariable-adjusted Prentice-weighted Cox regression. We estimated isocaloric substitutions of replacing fats and carbohydrates with plant- or animal-derived protein and replacing food-specific animal protein with plant protein. Multiplicative interactions between dietary protein and prespecified variables were tested. RESULTS: Neither plant- nor animal-derived protein intake was associated with incident CVD, IHD, or stroke in adjusted analyses without or with macronutrient-specified substitution analyses. Higher plant-derived protein intake was associated with 22% lower total stroke incidence among never smokers [HR 0.78, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.62, 0.99], but not among current smokers (HR 1.08, 95% CI: 0.83, 1.40, P-interaction = 0.004). Moreover, higher plant-derived protein (per 3% total energy) when replacing red meat protein (HR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.31, 0.88), processed meat protein (HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.90), and dairy protein (HR 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30, 0.98) was associated with lower incidence of fatal stroke. CONCLUSION: Plant- or animal-derived protein intake was not associated with overall CVD. However, the association of plant-derived protein consumption with lower total stroke incidence among nonsmokers, and with lower incidence of fatal stroke highlights the importance of investigating CVD subtypes and potential interactions. These observations warrant further investigation in diverse populations with varying macronutrient intakes and dietary patterns.

Genetic Associations of Circulating Cardiovascular Proteins With Gestational Hypertension and Preeclampsia.

Importance: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs), including gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, are important contributors to maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. In addition, women with HDPs face an elevated long-term risk of cardiovascular disease. Objective: To identify proteins in the circulation associated with HDPs. Design, Setting, and Participants: Two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) tested the associations of genetic instruments for cardiovascular disease-related proteins with gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. In downstream analyses, a systematic review of observational data was conducted to evaluate the identified proteins' dynamics across gestation in hypertensive vs normotensive pregnancies, and phenome-wide MR analyses were performed to identify potential non-HDP-related effects associated with the prioritized proteins. Genetic association data for cardiovascular disease-related proteins were obtained from the Systematic and Combined Analysis of Olink Proteins (SCALLOP) consortium. Genetic association data for the HDPs were obtained from recent European-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analyses for gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. Study data were analyzed October 2022 to October 2023. Exposures: Genetic instruments for 90 candidate proteins implicated in cardiovascular diseases, constructed using cis-protein quantitative trait loci (cis-pQTLs). Main Outcomes and Measures: Gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. Results: Genetic association data for cardiovascular disease-related proteins were obtained from 21 758 participants from the SCALLOP consortium. Genetic association data for the HDPs were obtained from 393 238 female individuals (8636 cases and 384 602 controls) for gestational hypertension and 606 903 female individuals (16 032 cases and 590 871 controls) for preeclampsia. Seventy-five of 90 proteins (83.3%) had at least 1 valid cis-pQTL. Of those, 10 proteins (13.3%) were significantly associated with HDPs. Four were robust to sensitivity analyses for gestational hypertension (cluster of differentiation 40, eosinophil cationic protein [ECP], galectin 3, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]), and 2 were robust for preeclampsia (cystatin B, heat shock protein 27 [HSP27]). Consistent with the MR findings, observational data revealed that lower NT-proBNP (0.76- to 0.88-fold difference vs no HDPs) and higher HSP27 (2.40-fold difference vs no HDPs) levels during the first trimester of pregnancy were associated with increased risk of HDPs, as were higher levels of ECP (1.60-fold difference vs no HDPs). Phenome-wide MR analyses identified 37 unique non-HDP-related protein-disease associations, suggesting potential on-target effects associated with interventions lowering HDP risk through the identified proteins. Conclusions and Relevance: Study findings suggest genetic associations of 4 cardiovascular disease-related proteins with gestational hypertension and 2 associated with preeclampsia. Future studies are required to test the efficacy of targeting the corresponding pathways to reduce HDP risk.

Age at Menopause and the Risk of Stroke: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analysis in 204 244 Postmenopausal Women.

Background Observational studies have shown that women with an early menopause are at higher risk of stroke compared with women with a later menopause. However, associations with stroke subtypes are inconsistent, and the causality is unclear. Methods and Results We analyzed data of the UK Biobank and EPIC-CVD (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Diseases) study. A total of 204 244 postmenopausal women without a history of stroke at baseline were included (7883 from EPIC-CVD [5292 from the subcohort], 196 361 from the UK Biobank). Pooled mean baseline age was 58.9 years (SD, 5.8), and pooled mean age at menopause was 47.8 years (SD, 6.2). Over a median follow-up of 12.6 years (interquartile range, 11.8-13.3), 6770 women experienced a stroke (5155 ischemic strokes, 1615 hemorrhagic strokes, 976 intracerebral hemorrhages, and 639 subarachnoid hemorrhages). In multivariable adjusted observational Cox regression analyses, the pooled hazard ratios per 5 years younger age at menopause were 1.09 (95% CI, 1.07-1.12) for stroke, 1.09 (95% CI, 1.06-1.13) for ischemic stroke, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04-1.16) for hemorrhagic stroke, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.08-1.20) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.84-1.20) for subarachnoid hemorrhage. When using 2-sample Mendelian randomization analysis, we found no statistically significant association between genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of any type of stroke. Conclusions In our study, earlier age at menopause was related to a higher risk of stroke. We found no statistically significant association between genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of stroke, suggesting no causal relationship.

Identification of blood protein biomarkers associated with prostate cancer risk using genetic prediction models: analysis of over 140,000 subjects.

Prostate cancer (PCa) brings huge public health burden in men. A growing number of conventional observational studies report associations of multiple circulating proteins with PCa risk. However, the existing findings may be subject to incoherent biases of conventional epidemiologic studies. To better characterize their associations, herein, we evaluated associations of genetically predicted concentrations of plasma proteins with PCa risk. We developed comprehensive genetic prediction models for protein levels in plasma. After testing 1308 proteins in 79 194 cases and 61 112 controls of European ancestry included in the consortia of BPC3, CAPS, CRUK, PEGASUS, and PRACTICAL, 24 proteins showed significant associations with PCa risk, including 16 previously reported proteins and eight novel proteins. Of them, 14 proteins showed negative associations and 10 showed positive associations with PCa risk. For 18 of the identified proteins, potential functional somatic changes of encoding genes were detected in PCa patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Genes encoding these proteins were significantly involved in cancer-related pathways. We further identified drugs targeting the identified proteins, which may serve as candidates for drug repurposing for treating PCa. In conclusion, this study identifies novel protein biomarker candidates for PCa risk, which may provide new perspectives on the etiology of PCa and improve its therapeutic strategies.

Unraveling Neuro-Proteogenomic Landscape and Therapeutic Implications for Human Behaviors and Psychiatric Disorders.

Understanding the genetic basis of neuro-related proteins is essential for dissecting the molecular basis of human behavioral traits and the disease etiology of neuropsychiatric disorders. Here, the SCALLOP Consortium conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of over 12,500 individuals for 184 neuro-related proteins in human plasma. The analysis identified 117 cis-regulatory protein quantitative trait loci (cis-pQTL) and 166 trans-pQTL. The mapped pQTL capture on average 50% of each protein's heritability. Mendelian randomization analyses revealed multiple proteins showing potential causal effects on neuro-related traits such as sleeping, smoking, feelings, alcohol intake, mental health, and psychiatric disorders. Integrating with established drug information, we validated 13 out of 13 matched combinations of protein targets and diseases or side effects with available drugs, while suggesting hundreds of re-purposing and new therapeutic targets. This consortium effort provides a large-scale proteogenomic resource for biomedical research on human behaviors and other neuro-related phenotypes.

A nutritional biomarker score of the Mediterranean diet and incident type 2 diabetes: Integrated analysis of data from the MedLey randomised controlled trial and the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860.

Systematic Mendelian randomization using the human plasma proteome to discover potential therapeutic targets for stroke.

Stroke is the second leading cause of death with substantial unmet therapeutic needs. To identify potential stroke therapeutic targets, we estimate the causal effects of 308 plasma proteins on stroke outcomes in a two-sample Mendelian randomization framework and assess mediation effects by stroke risk factors. We find associations between genetically predicted plasma levels of six proteins and stroke (P ≤ 1.62 × 10-4). The genetic associations with stroke colocalize (Posterior Probability >0.7) with the genetic associations of four proteins (TFPI, TMPRSS5, CD6, CD40). Mendelian randomization supports atrial fibrillation, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, white matter hyperintensities and type 2 diabetes as stroke risk factors (P ≤ 0.0071). Body mass index, white matter hyperintensity and atrial fibrillation appear to mediate the TFPI, IL6RA, TMPRSS5 associations with stroke. Furthermore, thirty-six proteins are associated with one or more of these risk factors using Mendelian randomization. Our results highlight causal pathways and potential therapeutic targets for stroke.

Modifiable traits, healthy behaviours, and leukocyte telomere length: a population-based study in UK Biobank.

Background: Telomere length is associated with risk of several age-related diseases and cancers. We aimed to investigate the extent to which telomere length might be modifiable through lifestyle and behaviour, and whether such modification has any clinical consequences. Methods: In this population-based study, we included participants from UK Biobank who had leukocyte telomere length (LTL) measurement, ethnicity, and white blood cell count data. We investigated associations of LTL with 117 potentially modifiable traits, as well as two indices of healthy behaviours incorporating between them smoking, physical activity, diet, maintenance of a healthy bodyweight, and alcohol intake, using both available and imputed data. To help interpretation, associations were summarised as the number of equivalent years of age-related change in LTL by dividing the trait ß coefficients with the age ß coefficient. We used mendelian randomisation to test causality of selected associations. We investigated whether the associations of LTL with 22 diseases were modified by the number of healthy behaviours and the extent to which the associations of more healthy behaviours with greater life expectancy and lower risk of coronary artery disease might be mediated through LTL. Findings: 422 797 participants were available for the analysis (227 620 [53·8%] were women and 400 036 [94·6%] were White). 71 traits showed significant (p<4·27 × 10-4) associations with LTL but most were modest, equivalent to less than 1 year of age-related change in LTL. In multivariable analyses of 17 traits with stronger associations (equivalent to ≥2 years of age-related change in LTL), oily fish intake, educational attainment, and general health status retained a significant association of this magnitude, with walking pace and current smoking being additionally significant at this level of association in the imputed models. Mendelian randomisation analysis suggested that educational attainment and smoking behaviour causally affect LTL. Both indices of healthy behaviour were positively and linearly associated with LTL, with those with the most healthy behaviours having longer LTL equivalent to about 3·5 years of age-related change in LTL than those with the least heathy behaviours (p<0·001). However, healthy behaviours explained less than 0·2% of the total variation in LTL and did not significantly modify the association of LTL with risk of any of the diseases studied. Neither the association of more healthy behaviours on greater life expectancy or lower risk of coronary artery disease were substantially mediated through LTL. Interpretation: Although several potentially modifiable traits and healthy behaviours have a quantifiable association with LTL, at least some of which are likely to be causal, these effects are not of a sufficient magnitude to substantially alter the association between LTL and various diseases or life expectancy. Attempts to change telomere length through lifestyle or behavioural changes might not confer substantial clinical benefit. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and British Heart Foundation.

Physical activity attenuates but does not eliminate coronary heart disease risk amongst adults with risk factors: EPIC-CVD case-cohort study.

AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate the association between physical activity and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in individuals with and without CHD risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: EPIC-CVD is a case-cohort study of 29 333 participants that included 13 582 incident CHD cases and a randomly selected sub-cohort nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Self-reported physical activity was summarized using the Cambridge physical activity index (inactive, moderately inactive, moderately active, and active). Participants were categorized into sub-groups based on the presence or the absence of the following risk factors: obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), hypercholesterolaemia (total cholesterol ≥6.2 mmol/L), history of diabetes, hypertension (self-reported or ≥140/90 mmHg), and current smoking. Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to assess the association between physical activity and incident CHD events (non-fatal and fatal).Compared to inactive participants without the respective CHD risk factor (referent), excess CHD risk was highest in physically inactive and lowest in moderately active participants with CHD risk factors. Corresponding excess CHD risk estimates amongst those with obesity were 47% [95% confidence interval (CI) 32-64%] and 21% (95%CI 2-44%), with hypercholesterolaemia were 80% (95%CI 55-108%) and 48% (95%CI 22-81%), with hypertension were 80% (95%CI 65-96%) and 49% (95%CI 28-74%), with diabetes were 142% (95%CI 63-260%), and 100% (95%CI 32-204%), and amongst smokers were 152% (95%CI 122-186%) and 109% (95%CI 74-150%). CONCLUSIONS: In people with CHD risk factors, moderate physical activity, equivalent to 40 mins of walking per day, attenuates but does not completely offset CHD risk.

Association of shorter leucocyte telomere length with risk of frailty.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a multidimensional syndrome of decline that affects multiple systems and predisposes to adverse health outcomes. Although chronological age is the major risk factor, inter-individual variation in risk is not fully understood. Leucocyte telomere length (LTL), a proposed marker of biological age, has been associated with risk of many diseases. We sought to determine whether LTL is associated with risk of frailty. METHODS: We utilized cross-sectional data from 441 781 UK Biobank participants (aged 40-69 years), with complete data on frailty indicators and LTL. Frailty was defined as the presence of at least three of five indicators: weaker grip strength, slower walking pace, weight loss in the past year, lower physical activity, and exhaustion in the past 2 weeks. LTL was measured using a validated qPCR method and reported as a ratio of the telomere repeat number (T) to a single-copy gene (S) (T/S ratio). Association of LTL with frailty was evaluated using adjusted (chronological age, sex, deprivation, smoking, alcohol intake, body mass index, and multimorbidity) multinomial and ordinal regression models, and results are presented as relative risk (RRR) or odds ratios (OR), respectively, alongside the 95% confidence interval (CI). Mendelian randomization (MR), using 131 genetic variants associated with LTL, was used to assess if the association of LTL with frailty was causal. RESULTS: Frail participants (4.6%) were older (median age difference (95% CI): 3 (2.5; 3.5) years, P = 2.73 × 10-33 ), more likely to be female (61%, P = 1.97 × 10-129 ), and had shorter LTL (-0.13SD vs. 0.03SD, P = 5.43 × 10-111 ) than non-frail. In adjusted analyses, both age and LTL were associated with frailty (RRR = 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02; 1.04) per year of older chronological age, P = 3.99 × 10-12 ; 1.10 (1.08; 1.11) per SD shorter LTL, P = 1.46 × 10-30 ). Within each age group (40-49, 50-59, 60-69 years), the prevalence of frailty was about 33% higher in participants with shorter (-2SD) versus longer telomeres (+2SD). MR analysis showed an association of LTL with frailty that was directionally consistent with the observational association, but not statistically significant (MR-Median: OR (95% CI): 1.08 (0.98; 1.19) per SD shorter LTL, P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Inter-individual variation in LTL is associated with the risk of frailty independently of chronological age and other risk factors. Our findings provide evidence for an additional biological determinant of frailty.

Investigating Genetic and Other Determinants of First-Onset Myocardial Infarction in Malaysia: Protocol for the Malaysian Acute Vascular Events Risk Study.

BACKGROUND: Although the burden of premature myocardial infarction (MI) is high in Malaysia, direct evidence on the determinants of MI in this multi-ethnic population remains sparse. OBJECTIVE: The Malaysian Acute Vascular Events Risk (MAVERIK) study is a retrospective case-control study established to investigate the genomic, lipid-related, and other determinants of acute MI in Malaysia. In this paper, we report the study protocol and early results. METHODS: By June 2019, we had enrolled approximately 2500 patients with their first MI and 2500 controls without cardiovascular disease, who were frequency-matched by age, sex, and ethnicity, from 17 hospitals in Malaysia. For each participant, serum and whole blood have been collected and stored. Clinical, demographic, and behavioral information has been obtained using a 200-item questionnaire. RESULTS: Tobacco consumption, a history of diabetes, hypertension, markers of visceral adiposity, indicators of lower socioeconomic status, and a family history of coronary disease were more prevalent in cases than in controls. Adjusted (age and sex) logistic regression models for traditional risk factors indicated that current smoking (odds ratio [OR] 4.11, 95% CI 3.56-4.75; P<.001), previous smoking (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.12-1.60; P=.001), a history of high blood pressure (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.86-2.44; P<.001), a history of diabetes mellitus (OR 2.72, 95% CI 2.34-3.17; P<.001), a family history of coronary heart disease (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.55; P=.009), and obesity (BMI >30 kg/m2; OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.05-1.34; P=.009) were associated with MI in age- and sex-adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: The MAVERIK study can serve as a useful platform to investigate genetic and other risk factors for MI in an understudied Southeast Asian population. It should help to hasten the discovery of disease-causing pathways and inform regionally appropriate strategies that optimize public health action. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/31885.

Insights into the genetic architecture of haematological traits from deep phenotyping and whole-genome sequencing for two Mediterranean isolated populations.

Haematological traits are linked to cardiovascular, metabolic, infectious and immune disorders, as well as cancer. Here, we examine the role of genetic variation in shaping haematological traits in two isolated Mediterranean populations. Using whole-genome sequencing data at 22× depth for 1457 individuals from Crete (MANOLIS) and 1617 from the Pomak villages in Greece, we carry out a genome-wide association scan for haematological traits using linear mixed models. We discover novel associations (p < 5 × 10-9) of five rare non-coding variants with alleles conferring effects of 1.44-2.63 units of standard deviation on red and white blood cell count, platelet and red cell distribution width. Moreover, 10.0% of individuals in the Pomak population and 6.8% in MANOLIS carry a pathogenic mutation in the Haemoglobin Subunit Beta (HBB) gene. The mutational spectrum is highly diverse (10 different mutations). The most frequent mutation in MANOLIS is the common Mediterranean variant IVS-I-110 (G>A) (rs35004220). In the Pomak population, c.364C>A ("HbO-Arab", rs33946267) is most frequent (4.4% allele frequency). We demonstrate effects on haematological and other traits, including bilirubin, cholesterol, and, in MANOLIS, height and gestation age. We find less severe effects on red blood cell traits for HbS, HbO, and IVS-I-6 (T>C) compared to other b+ mutations. Overall, we uncover allelic diversity of HBB in Greek isolated populations and find an important role for additional rare variants outside of HBB.

Salicylic Acid and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study.

Salicylic acid (SA) has observationally been shown to decrease colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid, that rapidly deacetylates to SA) is an effective primary and secondary chemopreventive agent. Through a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach, we aimed to address whether levels of SA affected CRC risk, stratifying by aspirin use. A two-sample MR analysis was performed using GWAS summary statistics of SA (INTERVAL and EPIC-Norfolk, N = 14,149) and CRC (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO and UK Biobank, 55,168 cases and 65,160 controls). The DACHS study (4410 cases and 3441 controls) was used for replication and stratification of aspirin-use. SNPs proxying SA were selected via three methods: (1) functional SNPs that influence the activity of aspirin-metabolising enzymes; (2) pathway SNPs present in enzymes' coding regions; and (3) genome-wide significant SNPs. We found no association between functional SNPs and SA levels. The pathway and genome-wide SNPs showed no association between SA and CRC risk (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.84-1.27 and OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.86-1.34, respectively). Results remained unchanged upon aspirin use stratification. We found little evidence to suggest that an SD increase in genetically predicted SA protects against CRC risk in the general population and upon stratification by aspirin use.

Polygenic basis and biomedical consequences of telomere length variation.

Telomeres, the end fragments of chromosomes, play key roles in cellular proliferation and senescence. Here we characterize the genetic architecture of naturally occurring variation in leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and identify causal links between LTL and biomedical phenotypes in 472,174 well-characterized UK Biobank participants. We identified 197 independent sentinel variants associated with LTL at 138 genomic loci (108 new). Genetically determined differences in LTL were associated with multiple biological traits, ranging from height to bone marrow function, as well as several diseases spanning neoplastic, vascular and inflammatory pathologies. Finally, we estimated that, at the age of 40 years, people with an LTL >1 s.d. shorter than the population mean had a 2.5-year-lower life expectancy compared with the group with ≥1 s.d. longer LDL. Overall, we furnish new insights into the genetic regulation of LTL, reveal wide-ranging influences of LTL on physiological traits, diseases and longevity, and provide a powerful resource available to the global research community.

The blood metabolome of incident kidney cancer: A case-control study nested within the MetKid consortium.

BACKGROUND: Excess bodyweight and related metabolic perturbations have been implicated in kidney cancer aetiology, but the specific molecular mechanisms underlying these relationships are poorly understood. In this study, we sought to identify circulating metabolites that predispose kidney cancer and to evaluate the extent to which they are influenced by body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed the association between circulating levels of 1,416 metabolites and incident kidney cancer using pre-diagnostic blood samples from up to 1,305 kidney cancer case-control pairs from 5 prospective cohort studies. Cases were diagnosed on average 8 years after blood collection. We found 25 metabolites robustly associated with kidney cancer risk. In particular, 14 glycerophospholipids (GPLs) were inversely associated with risk, including 8 phosphatidylcholines (PCs) and 2 plasmalogens. The PC with the strongest association was PC ae C34:3 with an odds ratio (OR) for 1 standard deviation (SD) increment of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.83, p = 2.6 × 10-8). In contrast, 4 amino acids, including glutamate (OR for 1 SD = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.60, p = 1.6 × 10-5), were positively associated with risk. Adjusting for BMI partly attenuated the risk association for some-but not all-metabolites, whereas other known risk factors of kidney cancer, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, had minimal impact on the observed associations. A mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of the influence of BMI on the blood metabolome highlighted that some metabolites associated with kidney cancer risk are influenced by BMI. Specifically, elevated BMI appeared to decrease levels of several GPLs that were also found inversely associated with kidney cancer risk (e.g., -0.17 SD change [ßBMI] in 1-(1-enyl-palmitoyl)-2-linoleoyl-GPC (P-16:0/18:2) levels per SD change in BMI, p = 3.4 × 10-5). BMI was also associated with increased levels of glutamate (ßBMI: 0.12, p = 1.5 × 10-3). While our results were robust across the participating studies, they were limited to study participants of European descent, and it will, therefore, be important to evaluate if our findings can be generalised to populations with different genetic backgrounds. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests a potentially important role of the blood metabolome in kidney cancer aetiology by highlighting a wide range of metabolites associated with the risk of developing kidney cancer and the extent to which changes in levels of these metabolites are driven by BMI-the principal modifiable risk factor of kidney cancer.

Risk factors and prediction models for incident heart failure with reduced and preserved ejection fraction.

AIMS: This study aims to develop the first race-specific and sex-specific risk prediction models for heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We created a cohort of 1.8 million individuals who had an outpatient clinic visit between 2002 and 2007 within the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System and obtained information on HFpEF, HFrEF, and several risk factors from electronic health records (EHR). Variables were selected for the risk prediction models in a 'derivation cohort' that consisted of individuals with baseline date in 2002, 2003, or 2004 using a forward stepwise selection based on a change in C-index threshold. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the remaining participants (internal 'validation cohort'). A total of 66 831 individuals developed HFpEF, and 92 233 developed HFrEF (52 679 and 71 463 in the derivation cohort) over a median of 11.1 years of follow-up. The HFpEF risk prediction model included age, diabetes, BMI, COPD, previous MI, antihypertensive treatment, SBP, smoking status, atrial fibrillation, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), while the HFrEF model additionally included previous CAD. For the HFpEF model, C-indices were 0.74 (SE = 0.002) for white men, 0.76 (0.005) for black men, 0.79 (0.015) for white women, and 0.77 (0.026) for black women, compared with 0.72 (0.002), 0.72 (0.004), 0.77 (0.017), and 0.75 (0.028), respectively, for the HFrEF model. These risk prediction models were generally well calibrated in each race-specific and sex-specific stratum of the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Our race-specific and sex-specific risk prediction models, which used easily obtainable clinical variables, can be a useful tool to implement preventive strategies or subtype-specific prevention trials in the nine million users of the VA healthcare system and the general population after external validation.

Plasma Proteomics of Renal Function: A Transethnic Meta-Analysis and Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: Studies on the relationship between renal function and the human plasma proteome have identified several potential biomarkers. However, investigations have been conducted largely in European populations, and causality of the associations between plasma proteins and kidney function has never been addressed. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 993 plasma proteins among 2882 participants in four studies of European and admixed ancestries (KORA, INTERVAL, HUNT, QMDiab) identified transethnic associations between eGFR/CKD and proteomic biomarkers. For the replicated associations, two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to investigate potential causal relationships. Publicly available datasets and transcriptomic data from independent studies were used to examine the association between gene expression in kidney tissue and eGFR. RESULTS: In total, 57 plasma proteins were associated with eGFR, including one novel protein. Of these, 23 were additionally associated with CKD. The strongest inferred causal effect was the positive effect of eGFR on testican-2, in line with the known biological role of this protein and the expression of its protein-coding gene (SPOCK2) in renal tissue. We also observed suggestive evidence of an effect of melanoma inhibitory activity (MIA), carbonic anhydrase III, and cystatin-M on eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: In a discovery-replication setting, we identified 57 proteins transethnically associated with eGFR. The revealed causal relationships are an important stepping stone in establishing testican-2 as a clinically relevant physiological marker of kidney disease progression, and point to additional proteins warranting further investigation.

Polygenic risk scores in cardiovascular risk prediction: A cohort study and modelling analyses.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009-0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40-75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.