Burden of non-communicable diseases from infectious causes in 2017: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause a large burden of disease globally. Some infectious diseases cause an increased risk of developing specific NCDs. Although the NCD burden from some infectious causes has been quantified, in this study, we aimed to more comprehensively quantify the global burden of NCDs from infectious causes. METHODS: In this modelling study, we identified NCDs with established infectious risk factors and infectious diseases with long-term non-communicable sequelae, and did narrative reviews between April 11, 2018, and June 10, 2020, to obtain relative risks (RRs) or population attributable fractions (PAFs) from studies quantifying the contribution of infectious causes to NCDs. To determine infection-attributable burden for the year 2017, we applied estimates of PAFs to estimates of disease burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 for pairs of infectious causes and NCDs, or used estimates of attributable burden directly from GBD 2017. Morbidity and mortality burden from these conditions was summarised with age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for geographical regions as defined by the GBD. Estimates of NCD burden attributable to infectious causes were compared with attributable burden for the groups of risk factors with the highest PAFs from GBD 2017. FINDINGS: Globally, we quantified 130 million DALYs from NCDs attributable to infection, comprising 8·4% of all NCD DALYs. The infection-NCD pairs with the largest burden were gastric cancer due to H pylori (14·6 million DALYs), cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to hepatitis B virus (12·2 million) and hepatitis C virus (10·4 million), liver cancer due to hepatitis B virus (9·4 million), rheumatic heart disease due to streptococcal infection (9·4 million), and cervical cancer due to HPV (8·0 million). Age-standardised rates of infection-attributable NCD burden were highest in Oceania (3564 DALYs per 100 000 of the population) and central sub-Saharan Africa (2988 DALYs per 100 000) followed by the other sub-Saharan African regions, and lowest in Australia and New Zealand (803 DALYs per 100 000) followed by other high-income regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, the proportion of crude NCD burden attributable to infectious causes was 11·7%, which was higher than the proportion of burden attributable to each of several common risk factors of NCDs (tobacco, alcohol use, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high fasting plasma glucose, air pollution, and high LDL cholesterol). In other broad regions, infectious causes ranked between fifth and eighth in terms of crude attributable proportions among the nine risks compared. The age-standardised attributable proportion for infectious risks remained highest in sub-Saharan Africa of the broad regions, but age-standardisation caused infectious risks to fall below dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and fasting plasma glucose in ranked attributable proportions within the region. INTERPRETATION: Infectious conditions cause substantial NCD burden with clear regional variation, and estimates of this burden are likely to increase as evidence that can be used for quantification expands. To comprehensively avert NCD burden, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, the availability, coverage, and quality of cost-effective interventions for key infectious conditions need to be strengthened. Efforts to promote universal health coverage must address infectious risks leading to NCDs, particularly in populations with high rates of these infectious conditions, to reduce existing regional disparities in rates of NCD burden. FUNDING: Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust.

Tuberculosis and chronic respiratory disease: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Chronic respiratory disease causes substantial global morbidity and mortality. The contribution of pulmonary tuberculosis to the aetiology of chronic respiratory disease is rarely considered, but may be important in tuberculosis-endemic areas. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review to assess the association between a history of tuberculosis and the presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or chronic suppurative lung disease (bronchiectasis). Study quality was evaluated using the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute quality assessment tool. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian and Laird random effects model. RESULTS: We identified 9 eligible studies for COPD and 2 for bronchiectasis. Overall, there was a significant association between a history of tuberculosis and the presence of COPD in adults aged over 40 years (pooled odds ratio 3.05 (95% confidence interval 2.42, 3.85). Among individual COPD studies the strongest associations were found in countries with a high incidence of tuberculosis, as well as among never smokers and younger people. CONCLUSION: In tuberculosis endemic areas, tuberculosis is strongly associated with the presence of chronic respiratory disease in adults. Efforts to improve long-term lung health should be part of tuberculosis care.

Peripheral venous and arterial blood gas analysis in adults: are they comparable? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Peripheral venous blood gas (PVBG) analysis is increasingly being used as a substitute for arterial blood sampling; however, comparability has not been clearly established. To determine if the pH, PCO2 and PO2 obtained from PVBG analysis is comparable with arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis. A search was conducted of electronic databases as well as hand-searching of journals and reference lists through December 2012 to identify studies comparing PVBG with ABG analysis in adult subjects. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. A meta-analysis using a random effects model was used to calculate the average difference (bias) and the limits of agreement for the venous and arterial pH, PCO2 and PO2 . A total of 18 studies comprising 1768 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies with I(2) approaching 100%. There was little difference between the pH obtained from the PVBG and the ABG, with the arterial pH typically 0.03 higher than the venous pH (95% confidence interval 0.029-0.038). The venous and arterial PCO2 were not comparable because the 95% prediction interval of the bias for venous PCO2 was unacceptably wide, extending from -10.7 mm Hg to +2.4 mm Hg. The PO2 values compared poorly, the arterial PO2 typically 36.9 mm Hg greater than the venous with significant variability (95% confidence interval from 27.2 to 46.6 mm Hg). PVBG analysis compares well with ABG analysis for pH estimations in adults but not to the PCO2 or PO2 . These differences are sufficiently large to be of clinical significance.