Agile scores in MASLD and ALD: External validation and their utility in clinical algorithms.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Agile scores, including liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and routine clinical/laboratory biomarkers, have been developed for advanced fibrosis (F≥3) and cirrhosis (F4), respectively, in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We independently validated the diagnostic accuracy of these scores in MASLD, alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and chronic hepatitis B or C (CHB/C) and assessed them in clinical algorithms with FIB-4 and LSM. METHODS: We included 4,243 patients (MASLD: 912, ALD: 386, CHB: 597, CHC: 2,348) with LSM, liver biopsy and laboratory tests within 6 months. FIB-4, Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores were calculated. RESULTS: For F≥3, the diagnostic accuracy of Agile 3+ and LSM were similar in MASLD (AUC: 0.86 vs. 0.86, p = 0.831) and ALD (0.92 vs. 0.94, p = 0.123). For cirrhosis, Agile 4 was similar to LSM in MASLD (0.89 vs. 0.90, p = 0.412) and ALD (0.94 vs. 0.95, p = 0.513). Agile 3+/4 performed worse than LSM in CHB/C. Using predefined dual thresholds of 90% sensitivity/specificity, correct classification rates in MASLD were 66% vs. 61% using Agile 3+ vs. LS dual cut-offs and 71% vs. 67% in ALD, respectively. When using Agile 3+ or LSM as a second step after FIB-4 >1.3, correct classification rates were higher with Agile 3+ than LSM, both for MASLD (75% vs. 71%) and ALD (76% vs. 72%), with fewer indeterminate results. Positive agreement of LSM and Agile 3+/4 significantly increased the specificity of a diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Agile 3+ and Agile 4 have equal diagnostic accuracy with LSM in both MASLD and ALD but result in fewer indeterminate results. Sequential use of FIB-4 and Agile 3+/4 or concurrent Agile 3+/4 and LSM can be used to further optimize F≥3 diagnosis. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: As of today, it is accepted that there will be no single non-invasive test or an isolated cut-off for identifying patients with advanced chronic liver disease. Here, we confirmed that Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores are useful alternatives to simple liver stiffness measurement in diagnosing advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in steatotic liver disease, but they do not perform as well in chronic viral hepatitis. Agile scores can help optimize the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in a dual cut-off strategy by reducing the number of indeterminate results either alone or in a sequential strategy after FIB-4. The combination of Agile scores and liver stiffness measurement can further increase our confidence in a positive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. These novel combination strategies can be useful tools to predict the likelihood of advanced stages of liver disease with the highest possible accuracy in a secondary/tertiary healthcare setting.

Associations between perfluoroalkyl substances and the severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and the determinants driving its severity remain to be elucidated. Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are synthetic chemical compounds. They are used in commonplace products and persistent in water, soil and the human body. In vitro and animal studies suggest a pathogenic role for PFAS in metabolic diseases such as NAFLD. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the association between NAFLD severity and serum PFAS concentrations in humans. METHODS: One hundred biopsy-proven NAFLD patients were included with a well-balanced distribution between the different stages of severity: 25 patients with simple steatosis, 25 with early non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH and F0-F1 fibrosis), 33 with fibrotic NASH (NASH and F2-F3 fibrosis), and 17 with cirrhotic NASH (NASH and F4 fibrosis). Liver histological features were evaluated according to the NASH Clinical Research Network classification. Seventeen PFAS were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry on serum samples stored at -80 °C. RESULTS: The median age was 60 years, 61 % of patients were male, 46 % had diabetes and the median body mass index (BMI) was 32 kg/m2. Long-chain PFAS were associated with steatosis grade (p = 0.03). Among the nine PFAS detected in > 50 % of the patients, Perfluoro-n-heptanoic acid (PFHpA) showed significantly higher concentrations in grade 3 steatosis versus grade 1 (p = 0.02). Perfluoro-n-dodecanoic acid (PFDoA) concentrations were higher in patients with significant fibrosis (p = 0.04) and PFHpA in patients with advanced fibrosis (p = 0.02). The association between PFHpA and steatosis grade remained significant in multivariate analysis adjusted for age, gender, BMI, diabetes presence and dyslipidemia (p = 0.004). DISCUSSION: Our study showed a significant association between PFHpA and liver steatosis in NAFLD. According to data available in the literature, PFHpA could be implicated in liver steatosis through ß-oxidation and biosynthesis of fatty acids.

Individual and population screening of varices needing treatment by a simple, safe and accurate test.

BACKGROUND: Several tests have been developed to screen varices needing treatment (VNT) in different screening settings. We aimed to develop simple estimators to quantify VNT risk and spare endoscopy while missing <5% of VNT, adapted to different screenings in the main etiologies. METHODS: 2,368 patients with chronic liver disease were included. The main VNT predictors were platelets, prothrombin index (PI) and LSM. Their interactions led to score construction, LIP: (LSM*45)/(PI*platelets), and BLIP: BMI-adjusted LIP in NAFLD. Scores were categorized either for population (VNT sensitivity ≥95%) or individual (negative predictive value ≥95%) VNT screening. RESULTS: 1) Scores diagnosing VNT. AUROCs were, PLER: 0.767 Anticipate: 0.773 (p=0.059 vs previous), LIP: 0.779 (p=0.136), PLEASE: 0.789 (p=0.196). 2) Population screening performance was in increasing order (with missed VNT rate), Baveno6 criteria: 23.9% (2.5%), Anticipate: 24.5%, p=0.367 vs previous (3.3%), PLER: 27.3%, p<0.001 (3.6%), LIP: 33.4%, p<0.001 (4.2%), PLEASE: 35.2%, p=0.006 (3.6%). In NAFLD, LIP: 38.6%, BLIP: 40.8%, p=0.038. 3) Individual screening performance was, expanded Baveno6 criteria: 42.7%, LIP: 54.1%, p<0.001. In NAFLD, performance was, NAFLD-cirrhosis criteria: 66.7%, BLIP: 74.6%, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: LIP combined simplicity, performance and safety in each etiology. In NAFLD, BMI-adjusted LIP outperformed other tests.

Validation of a screening algorithm for hepatic fibrosis by Doppler ultrasound and elastography in a general population.

BACKGROUND: Early detection can prevent the initial stages of fibrosis from progressing to cirrhosis. PURPOSE: To evaluate an algorithm combining three echographic indicators and elastographic measurements to screen for hepatic fibrosis in an unselected population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: From May 2017 to June 2018, all patients with no history and no known chronic liver disease who were referred for an ultrasound (US) were prospectively included in eight hospitals. The indicators being sought were liver surface irregularity, demodulation of hepatic veins, and spleen length >110 mm. Patients presenting at least one of these underwent elastography measurements with virtual touch quantification (VTQ) or supersonic shear imaging (SSI). If elastography was positive, patients were referred to hepatologist for fibrosis evaluation. Reference standard was obtained by FibroMeterVCTE or biopsy. A FibroMeterVCTE result >0.384 indicated a "necessary referral" to a hepatologist. RESULTS: Of the 1501 patients included, 504 (33.6%) were positive for at least one US indicator. All of them underwent US elastography, with 85 being positive. Of the patients, 58 (3.6%) had a consultation with a liver specialist: 21 had positive FibroMeterVCTE and nine had an indication of biopsy for suspicion of fibrosis. This screening algorithm made it possible to diagnose 1.6% of patients in our population with unknown fibrosis. Of the patients, 50% referred to the liver specialist were "necessary referrals." CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that three simple US indicators with no systematic elastographic measurement could be applied in day-to-day practice to look for hepatic fibrosis in an unsuspected population allowing relevant referrals to a hepatologist.

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes on the Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests of Liver Fibrosis With Resulting Clinical Implications.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis have been suggested to be less accurate in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to compare the accuracy of 6 NITs between patients with or without T2DM, explain any differences, and adapt diagnostic algorithms for clinical practice accordingly. METHODS: We included 1051 patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with liver biopsy, blood fibrosis tests (Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score, FIB4, Fibrotest, FibroMeter), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and the combinatory elasto-blood test FibroMeterVCTE. The study endpoint was advanced fibrosis on liver biopsy. RESULTS: NIT areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were significantly lower in patients with T2DM, mostly because of a decrease in specificity. For FIB4, this decrease in specificity was only related to the higher age of patients with T2DM enrolled. For Fibrotest, FibroMeter, and FibroMeterVCTE, the decrease in specificity was related to age but also to higher alpha2-macroglobulin level, which is known to increase in T2DM. Sensitivity was unaffected by T2DM, but it masked a doubled raw number of false negatives because of the 2-fold higher prevalence of advanced fibrosis in that setting. The sequential algorithm FIB4-vibration-controlled transient elastography had 90.3% accuracy in patients without T2DM vs 79.0% in those with (P < .001). Algorithms using first-line specialized tests maintained a low rate of false negatives and false positives in T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in NIT accuracy observed in T2DM is partly biased by the different characteristics of the groups studied, but also linked to T2DM itself through modification of the levels of some NIT biomarkers. Specialized tests should be used first-line to diagnose advanced liver fibrosis in T2DM.

Validation of the new 2021 EASL algorithm for the noninvasive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) has recently proposed an algorithm for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of this algorithm in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). APPROACH AND RESULTS: One thousand fifty-one patients with NAFLD, liver biopsy, and four noninvasive tests (NITs; Fibrosis-4 [FIB4], vibration controlled transient elastography [VCTE], FibroMeter, Fibrotest) were included. The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score was available in 396 patients. A cohort of 230 patients from primary care/diabetes clinics had FIB4, VCTE, and ELF. Compared with the performance of single NITs, agreement between two NITs (FIB4 and VCTE, VCTE and patented serum tests) increased specificity and positive predictive value by 20%, thus justifying the sequential use proposed in the EASL algorithm. The FIB4/VCTE/FibroMeter and FIB4/VCTE/Fibrotest algorithms performed similarly, providing 85% diagnostic accuracy and a liver biopsy requirement rate of only 10%. The FIB4/VCTE/ELF algorithm performed similarly in the subgroup where ELF was available. Simulations of algorithm accuracies at different prevalence showed that positive predictive values rapidly increased, reaching a plateau above 75% starting at 15% prevalence. Negative predictive values remained higher than 90% up to 25% prevalence. The rate of liver biopsy requirement remained stable, increasing by only 5% between low and high prevalence settings. When the EASL algorithm was applied in the primary care/diabetes clinic cohort, liver biopsy requirement was only 3%, and the agreement among the three steps provided 75% positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Our study validates the algorithm proposed by the EASL in its latest 2021 guidelines for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in the setting of NAFLD.

ABO blood group does not influence Child-Pugh A cirrhosis outcome: An observational study from CIRRAL and ANRS CO12 CIRVIR cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-O blood group promotes deep vein thrombosis and liver fibrosis in both general population and hepatitis C. We aimed to evaluate the influence of Non-O group on the outcome of Child-Pugh A cirrhotic patients. METHODS: We used two prospective cohorts of Child-Pugh A cirrhosis due to either alcohol or viral hepatitis. Primary end point was the cumulated incidence of 'Decompensation' at 3 years, defined as the occurrence of ascites , hydrothorax, encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding related to portal hypertension, or bilirubin >45 µmol/L. Secondary end points were the cumulated incidences of (1) 'Disease Progression' including a « decompensation¼ or « the occurrence of one or more parameters ¼ among: prothrombin time (PT) <45%, albumin <28 g/L, Child-Pugh worsening (B or C vs A or B, C vs B), hepatorenal syndrome, and hepato-pulmonary syndrome, (2) other events such as non-malignant portal vein thrombosis (nmPVT), and (3) overall survival. RESULTS: Patients (n = 1789; 59.9% Non-O group; 40.1% group O) were followed during a median of 65.4 months. At 3 years cumulated incidence of Decompensation was 8.3% in Non-O group and 7.2% in group O (P = .27). Cumulated incidence of Disease Progression was 20.7% in Non-O group and 18.9% in group O (P = .26). Cumulated incidence of nmPVT was 2.7% in Non-O group and 2.8% in group O (P = .05). At 3 years overall survival was 92.4% in Non-O group and 93.4% in group O (P = 1). CONCLUSION: Non-O group does not influence disease outcome in Child-Pugh A cirrhotic patients. Clinicals trial number NCT03342170.

Clinical outcomes after treatment with direct antiviral agents: beyond the virological response in patients with previous HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: In HCV-infected patients with advanced liver disease, the direct antiviral agents-associated clinical benefits remain debated. We compared the clinical outcome of patients with a previous history of decompensated cirrhosis following treatment or not with direct antiviral agents from the French ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. METHODS: We identified HCV patients who had experienced an episode of decompensated cirrhosis. Study outcomes were all-cause mortality, liver-related or non-liver-related deaths, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation. Secondary study outcomes were sustained virological response and its clinical benefits. RESULTS: 559 patients met the identification criteria, of which 483 received direct antiviral agents and 76 remained untreated after inclusion in the cohort. The median follow-up time was 39.7 (IQR: 22.7-51) months. After adjustment for multivariate analysis, exposure to direct antiviral agents was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24-0.84, p = 0.01) and non-liver-related death (HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.08-0.82, p = 0.02), and was not associated with liver-related death, decrease in hepatocellular carcinoma and need for liver transplantation. The sustained virological response was 88%. According to adjusted multivariable analysis, sustained virological response achievement was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.15-0.54, p < 0.0001), liver-related mortality (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17-0.96, p = 0.04), non-liver-related mortality (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.49, p = 0.001), liver transplantation (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.54, p = 0.003), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.93, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Treatment with direct antiviral agents is associated with reduced risk for mortality. The sustained virological response was 88%. Thus, direct antiviral agents treatment should be considered for any patient with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION:  ClinicalTrials.gov registry number: NCT01953458.

A predictive score of inadequate bowel preparation based on a self-administered questionnaire: PREPA-CO.

INTRODUCTION: Inadequate bowel preparation before colonoscopy has a 20-30% rate and impedes on the quality of the procedure. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive score of inadequate bowel preparation, using a patient questionnaire on potential risk factors. METHODS: In this single center study, consecutive patients with colonoscopy indication were enrolled. The primary outcome was inadequate bowel preparation defined by Boston Bowel Preparation Scale (BBPS) score <7 or a score ≤1 in any of the 3 colonic segments. RESULTS: A total of 561 patients were included. Inadequate bowel preparation was seen in 25.0% of cases. Seven risk factors were selected into the prediction model of inadequate bowel preparation: diabetes or obesity, irregular physical activity, cirrhosis, use of antidepressants or neuroleptics, use of opiate medication, history of surgery and history of inadequate bowel preparation. The risk score, named PREPA-CO, had an AUROC of 0.621, adequately predicted bowel cleanliness in 68.3% of cases, with a specificity of 75.8% and a negative predictive value of 80.8%. CONCLUSION: We developed a predictive score named "Prepa-Co", allowing the identification of patients at high risk of inadequate bowel preparation. In clinical practice, this score could help tailor the prescription of the preparation to the patient.

Predictive factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B using structural equation modeling: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The factors predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in chronic hepatitis B need to be precisely known to improve its detection. We identified pathways and individual predictive factors associated with HCC in the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. METHODS: The study analyzed HBV-infected patients recruited at 32 French expert hepatology centers from August 6, 2012, to December 31, 2015. We excluded patients with chronic HCV, HDV and a history of HCC, decompensated cirrhosis or liver transplantation. Structural equation models were developed to characterize the causal pathways leading to HCC occurrence. The association between clinical characteristics (age, gender, body-mass index, liver fibrosis, alcohol consumption, smoking status, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, alpha-fetoprotein, HBV DNA levels, antiviral therapy) and incident HCC was quantified. RESULTS: Among the 4489 patients included, 33 patients reported incident HCC. The median follow-up was 45.5 months. Age (ß = 0.18 by decade, 95% CI 0.14-0.23), male gender (ß = 0.23, 95% CI 0.18-0.29), metabolic syndrome (ß = 0.28, 95% CI 0.22-0.33), alcohol consumption (ß = 0.09, 95% CI 0.05-0.14) and HBV DNA (ß = 0.25, 95% CI 0.170.34) had a significant and direct effect on the occurrence of advanced liver fibrosis. Liver fibrosis (ß = 0.71, 95% CI 0.55-0.87) predicted, in turn, the occurrence of HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Liver fibrosis mediates the effects of age, gender, alcohol, metabolic syndrome and HBV DNA on the occurrence of HCC. Elderly men with chronic hepatitis B, risky alcohol use, advanced liver fibrosis, metabolic syndrome and high HBV DNA levels should be monitored closely to detect the development of HCC.

Cross-linkage between bacterial taxonomy and gene functions: a study of metagenome-assembled genomes of gut microbiota in adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The reconstruction of metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) has emerged as a powerful approach for combining the taxonomic and functional content of microbial populations. AIM: To use this new approach to highlight mechanisms linking gut microbiota to NAFLD severity METHODS: Stool samples were collected from 96 NAFLD patients on the day of liver biopsy. Shotgun DNA sequencing of the gut microbiota was performed on an Illumina HiSeq3000 system. Contigs were binned into MAGs according to their co-abundances and tetranucleotide frequencies using Metabat v.0.32.4. Predicted protein-coding genes were clustered in orthologous groups (OGs) with DIAMOND against the EggNOG v4.5 database. Liver biopsies were read in accordance with the NASH CRN classification. RESULTS: Fifty-four patients had NASH and 44 had significant fibrosis (F ≥ 2). Sequencing of DNA extracted from stools resulted in 13.8 + 3.2 million paired-end reads per sample. Of the 4,000 reconstructed MAGs, 220 in NASH patients, 192 in non-NASH patients, 203 in F ≥ 2 patients and 230 in F0-1 patients had > 70% completeness and < 5% contamination. Within these MAGs, 28 OGs were associated with NASH, 33 with significant fibrosis, and seven with both NASH and significant fibrosis. The study of MAGs showed associations between NAFLD severity and some gut bacteria with microbiota functions related to hydrogen sulfide production, citrate transport, hemicellulose degradation, aldehyde production and vitamin B12 synthesis. CONCLUSION: Using new metagenomics methods, our study unveils potential mechanisms by which certain bacteria from the gut microbiota could protect or contribute to the development of NASH and liver fibrosis in NAFLD.

Refining the Baveno VI elastography criteria for the definition of compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The Baveno VI consensus proposed a dual liver stiffness (LS) by transient elastography threshold of <10 and >15 kPa for excluding and diagnosing compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) in the absence of other clinical signs. Herein, we aimed to validate these criteria in a real-world multicentre study. METHODS: We included 5,648 patients (mean age 51 ± 13 years, 53% males) from 10 European liver centres who had a liver biopsy and LS measurement within 6 months. We included patients with chronic hepatitis C (n = 2,913, 52%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, n = 1,073, 19%), alcohol-related liver disease (ALD, n = 946, 17%) or chronic hepatitis B (n = 716, 13%). cACLD was defined as fibrosis stage ≥F3. RESULTS: Overall, 3,606 (66%) and 987 (18%) patients had LS <10 and >15 kPa, respectively, while cACLD was histologically confirmed in 1,772 (31%) patients. The cut-offs of <10 and >15 kPa showed 75% sensitivity and 96% specificity to exclude and diagnose cACLD, respectively. Examining the ROC curve, a more optimal dual cut-off at <7 and >12 kPa, with 91% sensitivity and 92% specificity for excluding and diagnosing cACLD (AUC 0.87; 95% CI 0.86-0.88; p <0.001) was derived. Specifically, for ALD and NAFLD, a low cut-off of 8 kPa can be used (sensitivity=93%). For the unclassified patients, we derived a risk model based on common patient characteristics with better discrimination than LS alone (AUC 0.74 vs. 0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Instead of the Baveno VI proposed <10 and >15 kPa dual cut-offs, we found that the <8 kPa (or <7 kPa for viral hepatitis) and >12 kPa dual cut-offs have better diagnostic accuracy in cACLD. LAY SUMMARY: The term compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) was introduced in 2015 to describe the spectrum of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in asymptomatic patients. It was also suggested that cACLD could be diagnosed or ruled out based on specific liver stiffness values, which can be non-invasively measured by transient elastography. Herein, we assessed the suggested cut-off values and identified alternative values that offered better overall accuracy for diagnosing or ruling out cACLD.

Absence of impact of direct acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus on recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma tumor growth in the AFEF/ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although it has now been excluded that direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are associated with a significant risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HCV-infected patients, a possible effect of DAA on tumor growth is still a subject of debate. We performed a blind comparison of the kinetics of HCC recurrence in patients after HCV treatment with or without DAA to evaluate the potential aggressiveness of HCC after DAA treatment. BASIC PROCEDURES: Thirty-nine HCV-infected patients from the AFEF/ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort who experienced HCC recurrence after so-called curative treatment were evaluated. Contrast-enhanced CT and/or MR images were read blindly 6 months before HCC recurrence and during the follow-up period. Seventeen patients who received DAA (DAA+) before HCC recurrence were compared to the 22 who did not receive (DAA-), according to the LiRads and mRECIST criteria. MAIN FINDINGS: There were 28 men and 11 women, median age 62 years old, 37 (95%) with cirrhosis. DAA+ patients had a lower median MELD score (8±2 vs. 10±4, P=0.0286) than DAA- patients. The median time to HCC recurrence (time from the date of curative treatment to the diagnosis of recurrence) was not different (20 vs. 18 months) (P=0.73) between the two groups. There was no difference between the 2 groups in the overall survival and/or transplantation-free survival (P=0.71) and for the mRECIST time to progression (P=0.25). CONCLUSION: This blinded analysis of HCC recurrence after HCC treatment does not support any negative impact of DAA therapy on the severity or progression of recurrent HCC.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status. METHODS: Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014). RESULTS: Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF]. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

A pragmatic non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis in patients with psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis or Crohn's disease receiving methotrexate therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The reported hepatotoxicity of methotrexate underlines the need for a repeated non-invasive and reliable evaluation of liver fibrosis. We estimated, using a non-invasive strategy, the prevalence of significant liver fibrosis in patients treated by methotrexate and the predictors of significant fibrosis (fibrosis≥F2). METHODS: Fibrosis was prospectively evaluated using 9 non-invasive tests in consecutive patients with psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, or Crohn's disease. Significant fibrosis was assessed without liver biopsy by defining a "specific method" (result given by the majority of the tests) and a "sensitive method" (at least one test indicating a stage≥F2). RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-one patients (66 Psoriasis, 40 rheumatoid arthritis, and 25 Crohn's disease) were enrolled, including 83 receiving methotrexate. Seven tests were performed on average per patient, with a complete concordance in 75% of cases. Fibroscan® was interpretable in only 61% of patients. The best performances (AUROC>0.9) for predicting significant fibrosis were obtained by tests dedicated to steatohepatitis (FibroMeter NAFLD, NFS and FPI). The prevalence of fibrosis≥F2 according to the "specific" or the "sensitive" assessment of fibrosis was 10% and 28%, respectively. Methotrexate exposure did not influence the fibrosis stage. Factors independently associated with significant fibrosis according our "sensitive method" were age, male gender, and metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSION: We provided a non-invasive approach for identifying liver fibrosis≥F2 by using 8 biochemical tests and Fibroscan®. In this population, the risk of significant fibrosis was related to age, male gender, and presence of metabolic syndrome, but was not influenced by methotrexate.

Direct comparison of the specialised blood fibrosis tests FibroMeterV2G and Enhanced Liver Fibrosis score in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease from tertiary care centres.

BACKGROUND: The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis score (ELF) and the FibroMeterV2G are two specialized blood fibrosis tests which include direct markers of liver fibrosis. They have been shown to be more accurate than the simple blood fibrosis tests FIB4 and the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS). AIMS: To directly compare the accuracies of ELF and FibroMeterV2G for the non-invasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in NAFLD. METHODS: Four hundred and seventeen patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were enrolled from two tertiary care centres. Four blood fibrosis tests were calculated: ELF, FibroMeterV2G , NFS, and FIB4. Advanced fibrosis F3/4 on liver biopsy (NASH CRN scoring) was the primary endpoint. RESULTS: Areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for advanced fibrosis were not significantly different between the direct markers of liver fibrosis (hyaluronate, PIIINP, TIMP-1, alpha2-macroglobulin) and the simple blood fibrosis tests NFS and FIB4. ELF (0.793 ± 0.022) and FibroMeterV2G (0.804 ± 0.021) had significantly higher AUROC than NFS (0.722 ± 0.025, P < .010) and FIB4 (0.739 ± 0.024, P < .020). AUROC for advanced fibrosis and Obuchowski index were not significantly different between ELF and FibroMeterV2G . Algorithms using first ELF or FibroMeterV2G and then liver biopsy in case of undetermined diagnosis provided high diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis: 90% sensitivity, 90% specificity, 93% negative predictive value, 85% positive predictive value, and 90% correct classification. In these algorithms, the rate of liver biopsy was 45.3% with ELF versus 39.3% with FibroMeterV2G (P = .065). CONCLUSIONS: ELF and FibroMeterV2G have equal accuracy and perform better than the simple FIB4 and NFS tests for the non-invasive diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD from tertiary care centres.

New sequential combinations of non-invasive fibrosis tests provide an accurate diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Advanced liver fibrosis is an important diagnostic target in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as it defines the subgroup of patients with impaired prognosis. The non-invasive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis is currently limited by the suboptimal positive predictive value and the grey zone (representing indeterminate diagnosis) of fibrosis tests. Here, we aimed to determine the best combination of non-invasive tests for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. METHODS: A total of 938 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were randomized 2:1 into derivation and validation sets. All patients underwent liver stiffness measurement with vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and blood fibrosis tests (NAFLD fibrosis score, Fibrosis-4 [FIB4], Fibrotest, Hepascore, FibroMeter). FibroMeterVCTE, which combines VCTE results and FibroMeter markers in a single test, was also calculated in all patients. RESULTS: For the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis, VCTE was significantly more accurate than the blood tests (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]: 0.840 ±â€¯0.013, p ≤0.005). FibroMeter was the most accurate blood test (AUROC: 0.793 ±â€¯0.015, p ≤0.017). The combinatory test FibroMeterVCTE outperformed VCTE and blood tests (AUROC: 0.866 ±â€¯0.012, p ≤0.005). The sequential combination of FIB4 then FibroMeterVCTE (FIB4-FMVCTE algorithm) or VCTE then FibroMeterVCTE (VCTE-FMVCTE algorithm) provided an excellent diagnostic accuracy of 90% for advanced fibrosis, with liver biopsy only required to confirm the diagnosis in 20% of cases. The FIB4-FMVCTE and VCTE-FMVCTE algorithms were significantly more accurate than the pragmatic algorithms currently proposed. CONCLUSION: The sequential combination of fibrosis tests in the FIB4-FMVCTE and VCTE-FMVCTE algorithms provides a highly accurate solution for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. These algorithms should now be validated for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis in diabetology or primary care settings. LAY SUMMARY: The evaluation of liver fibrosis is mandatory in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), as advanced fibrosis identifies the subgroup of patients with impaired prognosis. FibroMeterVCTE is a new fibrosis test combining blood markers and the result of vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE) into a single diagnostic test. Our results show that FibroMeterVCTE outperforms other blood fibrosis tests and VCTE alone for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in a large multi-centric cohort of 938 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. Sequential algorithms using a simple blood test or VCTE as a first-line procedure, then FibroMeterVCTE as a second-line test accurately classified 90% of patients.

Liver Stiffness Measurement With FibroScan: Use the Right Probe in the Right Conditions!

INTRODUCTION: FibroScan's M and XL probes give significantly different results, which could lead to misevaluation of liver fibrosis if the correct probe is not chosen. According to the manufacturer, the M probe should be used when the skin-liver capsule distance (SCD) is <25 mm, and the XL probe should be used when SCD is ≥25 mm. We aimed at validating this recommendation and defining the conditions of use for FibroScan probes in clinical practice. METHODS: Four hundred thirty-nine patients with biopsy-proven chronic liver disease were included. Of them, 382 had successful examinations with both M and XL probes. Advanced fibrosis was defined as Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network (NASH CRN) F ≥3 or Metavir F ≥2. RESULTS: In a same patient, XL probe results were significantly lower than M probe results: 7.9 (5.6-11.7) vs 9.5 (6.7-14.6) kPa, respectively (P < 0.001). After matching for age, sex, liver fibrosis, and serum transaminases, M probe results in patients with SCD <25 mm and XL probe results in those with SCD ≥25 mm did not significantly differ: 8.8 (6.0-12.0) vs 9.1 (6.7-12.8) kPa, respectively (P = 0.175). Of note, 81.4% of patients with body mass index (BMI) <32 kg/m had SCD <25 mm, and 77.7% of patients with BMI ≥32 kg/m had SCD ≥25 mm. A practical algorithm using BMI first and then the FibroScan Automatic Probe Selection tool was proposed to help physicians accurately choose which probe to use in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: There is no significant difference in results between M and XL probes when they are used in the right conditions. In clinical practice, the probe should be selected according to the BMI and the Automatic Probe Selection tool.

Validation of Baveno VI Criteria for Screening and Surveillance of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis and a Sustained Response to Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy. METHODS: We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT. RESULTS: A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5-80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

Clinical outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis C after direct-acting antiviral treatment: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although direct-acting antivirals have been used extensively to treat patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, their clinical effectiveness has not been well reported. We compared the incidence of death, hepatocellular carcinoma, and decompensated cirrhosis between patients treated with direct-acting antivirals and those untreated, in the French ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort. METHODS: We did a prospective study in adult patients with chronic HCV infection enrolled from 32 expert hepatology centres in France. We excluded patients with chronic hepatitis B, those with a history of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver transplantation, and patients who were treated with interferon-ribavirin with or without first-generation protease inhibitors. Co-primary study outcomes were incidence of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, and decompensated cirrhosis. The association between direct-acting antivirals and these outcomes was quantified using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01953458. FINDINGS: Between Aug 6, 2012, and Dec 31, 2015, 10 166 patients were eligible for the study. 9895 (97%) patients had available follow-up information and were included in analyses. Median follow-up was 33·4 months (IQR 24·0-40·7). Treatment with direct-acting antivirals was initiated during follow-up in 7344 patients, and 2551 patients remained untreated at the final follow-up visit. During follow-up, 218 patients died (129 treated, 89 untreated), 258 reported hepatocellular carcinoma (187 treated, 71 untreated), and 106 had decompensated cirrhosis (74 treated, 32 untreated). Exposure to direct-acting antivirals was associated with increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·77, 95% CI 2·07-3·71) and decompensated cirrhosis (3·83, 2·29-6·42). After adjustment for variables (age, sex, body-mass index, geographical origin, infection route, fibrosis score, HCV treatment-naive, HCV genotype, alcohol consumption, diabetes, arterial hypertension, biological variables, and model for end-stage liver disease score in patients with cirrhosis), exposure to direct-acting antivirals was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0·48, 95% CI 0·33-0·70) and hepatocellular carcinoma (0·66, 0·46-0·93), and was not associated with decompensated cirrhosis (1·14, 0·57-2·27). INTERPRETATION: Treatment with direct-acting antivirals is associated with reduced risk for mortality and hepatocellular carcinoma and should be considered in all patients with chronic HCV infection. FUNDING: INSERM-ANRS (France Recherche Nord & Sud Sida-HIV Hépatites), ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche), DGS (Direction Générale de la Santé), MSD, Janssen, Gilead, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Roche.