Development and Validation of the TUMMY-UC: A Patient-Reported Outcome for Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The TUMMY-UC is a patient-reported outcome measure for pediatric ulcerative colitis (UC) with an observer-reported outcome version for children aged <8 years. It includes eight items selected by concept elicitation interviews. We aimed to finalize the TUMMY-UC by cognitive interviews (stage 2) and to evaluate the index for its psychometric properties (stage 3). METHODS: The TUMMY-UC items were first finalized during 129 cognitive debriefing interviews. Then, in a prospective, multicenter validation study, 84 children who underwent colonoscopy or provided stool for calprotectin completed the TUMMY-UC and various measures of disease activity. Assessments were repeated after 7 and 21 days for evaluating reliability and responsiveness. RESULTS: During stage 2, the items were formatted with identical structure to ensure conceptual equivalence and weighted based on ranking of importance. In stage 3, the TUMMY-UC total score had excellent reliability in repeated assessments (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.94). It also had moderate to strong correlations with all constructs of disease activity: r = 0.70 with UC endoscopic index of severity, r = 0.63 with the IMPACT-III questionnaire, r = 0.43 with calprotectin, r = 0.80 with the Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index, r = 0.75 with global assessment of disease activity, and r = 0.46 with C-reactive protein (all P < .015). The index had excellent discrimination of disease activity, with a score of <9 defining remission (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.93-0.99). The ΔTUMMY-UC showed high responsiveness and differentiated well between children who experienced changed from those with no change. CONCLUSIONS: The TUMMY-UC, constructed from patient-reported outcome and observer-reported outcome versions, is a reliable, valid and responsive index that can be now used in practice and clinical trials.

Existing Prediction Models of Disease Course in Paediatric Crohn's Disease Are Poorly Replicated in a Prospective Inception Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Several groups have proposed models to predict disease outcomes in paediatric Crohn's disease [CD], notably the RISK, GROWTH, and the Porto group, but none were externally validated. We aimed to explore these predictive models and individual predictors summarised by the PIBD-ahead project in a prospective inception cohort of paediatric CD. METHODS: We included children who were diagnosed with CD at two medical centres and followed them at 3 and 12 months thereafter as well as at the last follow-up. Outcomes included steroid-free remission [SFR], surgery, and stricturing/fistulising disease. RESULTS: In all 155 children were included (median follow-up of 31 [16-48] months, 107 [71%] had moderate-to-severe disease). Stricturing and penetrating disease at diagnosis were noted in 34 [22%] and two [1.3%] children, respectively, and these were excluded from the relevant analyses. At 1 year, 10 [8.3%] developed new stricturing disease, two [1.7%] developed penetrating disease, seven [5%] required intestinal surgery, and 15 [10%] required perianal surgery. The sensitivity/specificity/positive predictive value [PPV]/negative predictive value [NPV] of the GROWTH criteria for predicting SFR at 12 months [occurring in 70% of children] were 20%/85%/76%/31% and for surgery at 2 years were 96%/20%/16%/96%, respectively. Strictures were predicted by the RISK model with sensitivity/specificity/PPV/NPV of 33%/73%/18%/86%, respectively. The sensitivity/specificity/PPV/NPV of the Porto criteria to predict surgery were 86%/10%/4%/94%, respectively. None of the Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease-ahead [PIBD-ahead] predictors were associated with surgery or stricturing disease. CONCLUSIONS: None of the three main predictive models in paediatric CD achieved sufficient accuracy, far from that reported in the original cohorts. This highlights the necessity of external validation in any prediction model prior to its implementation in clinical practice.