Health, economic and social burden of tobacco in Latin America and the expected gains of fully implementing taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments control measures: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the tobacco-attributable burden on disease, medical costs, productivity losses and informal caregiving; and to estimate the health and economic gains that can be achieved if the main tobacco control measures (raising taxes on tobacco, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments) are fully implemented in eight countries that encompass 80% of the Latin American population. DESIGN: Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, costs and quality of life associated with the main tobacco-related diseases. Model inputs and data on labour productivity, informal caregivers' burden and interventions' effectiveness were obtained through literature review, surveys, civil registrations, vital statistics and hospital databases. Epidemiological and economic data from January to October 2020 were used to populate the model. FINDINGS: In these eight countries, smoking is responsible each year for 351 000 deaths, 2.25 million disease events, 12.2 million healthy years of life lost, US$22.8 billion in direct medical costs, US$16.2 billion in lost productivity and US$10.8 billion in caregiver costs. These economic losses represent 1.4% of countries' aggregated gross domestic products. The full implementation and enforcement of the four strategies: taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments would avert 271 000, 78 000, 71 000 and 39 000 deaths, respectively, in the next 10 years, and result in US$63.8, US$12.3, US$11.4 and US$5.7 billions in economic gains, respectively, on top of the benefits being achieved today by the current level of implementation of these measures. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking represents a substantial burden in Latin America. The full implementation of tobacco control measures could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce healthcare spending and caregiver and productivity losses, likely resulting in large net economic benefits.

Are Wealthier Times Healthier in Cities? Economic Fluctuations and Mortality in Urban Areas of Latin America.

Objective: To analyze the relationship between economic conditions and mortality in cities of Latin America. Methods: We analyzed data from 340 urban areas in ten countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru, and El Salvador. We used panel models adjusted for space-invariant and time-invariant factors to examine whether changes in area gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were associated with changes in mortality. Results: We find procyclical oscillations in mortality (i.e., higher mortality with higher GDP per capita) for total mortality, female population, populations of 0-9 and 45+ years, mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, respiratory infections and road traffic injuries. Homicides appear countercyclical, with higher levels at lower GDP per capita. Conclusions: Our results reveal large heterogeneity, but in our sample of cities, for specific population groups and causes of death, mortality oscillates procyclically, increasing when GDP per capita increases. In contrast we find few instances of countercyclical mortality.

The health and economic burden of smoking in 12 Latin American countries and the potential effect of increasing tobacco taxes: an economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, smoking tobacco causes 7 million deaths annually, and this toll is expected to increase, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. In Latin America, smoking is a leading risk factor for death and disability, contributes to poverty, and imposes an economic burden on health systems. Despite being one of the most effective measures to reduce smoking, tobacco taxation is underused and cigarettes are more affordable in Latin America than in other regions. Our aim was to estimate the tobacco-attributable burden on mortality, disease incidence, quality of life lost, and medical costs in 12 Latin American countries, and the expected health and economic effects of increasing tobacco taxes. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, medical costs, and quality-of-life losses associated with the most common tobacco-related diseases in 12 countries in Latin America. Data inputs were obtained through a literature review, vital statistics, and hospital databases from each country: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. The main outcomes of the model are life-years, quality-adjusted life-years, disease events, hospitalisations, disease incidence, disease cost, and healthy years of life lost. We estimated direct medical costs for each tobacco-related disease included in the model using a common costing methodology for each country. The disease burden was estimated as the difference in disease events, deaths, and associated costs between the results predicted by the model for current smoking prevalence and a hypothetical cohort of people in each country who had never smoked. The model estimates the health and financial effects of a price increase of cigarettes through taxes, in terms of disease and health-care costs averted, and increased tax revenues. FINDINGS: In the 12 Latin American countries analysed, we estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 345 000 (12%) of the total 2 860 921 adult deaths, 2·21 million disease events, 8·77 million healthy years of life lost, and $26·9 billion in direct medical costs annually. Health-care costs attributable to smoking were estimated to represent 6·9% of the health budgets of these countries, equivalent to 0·6% of their gross domestic product. Tax revenues from cigarette sales cover 36·0% of the estimated health expenditures caused by smoking. We estimated that a 50% increase in cigarette price through taxation would avert more than 300 000 deaths, 1·3 million disease events, gain 9 million healthy life-years, and save $26·7 billion in health-care costs in the next 10 years, with a total economic benefit of $43·7 billion. INTERPRETATION: Smoking represents a substantial health and economic burden in these 12 countries of Latin America. Tobacco tax increases could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce health-care spending, and increase tax revenues, resulting in large net economic benefits. FUNDING: International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Health burden and economic costs of smoking in Chile: The potential impact of increasing cigarettes prices.

BACKGROUND: Globally, tobacco consumption continues to cause a huge burden of preventable diseases. Chile has been leading the tobacco burden ranking in the Latin American region for the last ten years; it has currently a 33. 3% prevalence of current smokers. METHODS: A microsimulation economic model was developed within the framework of a multi-country project in order to estimate the burden attributable to smoking in terms of morbidity, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and direct costs of care. We also modelled the impact of increasing cigarettes' taxes on this burden. RESULTS: In Chile, 16,472 deaths were attributable to smoking in 2017, which represent around 16% of all deaths. This burden corresponds to 416,445 DALYs per year. The country's health system spends 1.15 trillion pesos annually (in Dec 2017 CLP, approx. U$D 1.8 billion) in health care treatment of illnesses caused by smoking. If the price of tobacco cigarettes was to be raised by 50%, around 13,665 deaths and 360,476 DALYs from smoking-attributable diseases would be averted in 10 years, with subsequent savings on health care costs, and increased tax revenue collection. In Chile, the tobacco tax collection does not fully cover the direct healthcare costs attributed to smoking. CONCLUSION: Despite a reduction observed on smoking prevalence between 2010 (40.6%) and 2017 (33.3%), this study shows that the burden of disease, and the economic toll due to smoking, remain high. As we demonstrate, a rise in the price of cigarettes could lead to a significant reduction of this burden, averting deaths and disability, and reducing healthcare spending.

Expanding Coverage of Oncology Drugs in an Aging, Upper-Middle-Income Country: Analyses of Public and Private Expenditures in Chile.

PURPOSE: The population of Chile has aged, and in 2017, cancer became the leading cause of death. Since 2005, a national health program has expanded coverage of drugs for 13 types of cancer and related palliative care. We describe the trends in public and private oncology drug expenditures in Chile and consider how increasing expenditures might be addressed. METHODS: We analyzed total quarterly drug expenditures for 131 oncology drugs from quarter (Q)3 2012 until Q1 2017, including public and private insurance payments and patient out-of-pocket spending. The data were analyzed by drug-mix, sources of funding, growth, and intellectual property status. The Laspeyres Price Index was used to analyze expenditure growth. RESULTS: We found 131 oncology drugs associated with 87,129 observations. Spending on drugs rose 120% from the first period, spanning from the first 3 quarters (Q3, Q4, Q1 2012-2013) to the last period (Q3, Q4, Q1 2016-2017), corresponding to an annualized rate of 19.2% and totaling US$398 million (in 2017 dollars). The public sector accounted for 84.2% of spending, which included 50 drugs in the official treatment protocols, whereas private insurance accounted for 7.3% in on-protocol drugs. The remaining 8.5% was paid out of pocket. In the public sector, more than 90% of growth resulted from increased use. Seven drugs, including 3 with nonexpired patents, accounted for 50% of total expenditures. CONCLUSION: Increased use and access enabled by expanded public expenditures drove most of the growth in oncology drug expenditures. However, the rate of public expenditure growth may be fiscally unsustainable. Policies are urgently needed to promote the use of generic drugs, the appropriate mix of on-protocol versus off-protocol drugs, and the curbing of off-label prescribing.

[Financial impact of smoking on health systems in Latin America: A study of seven countries and extrapolation to the regional level]. / Impacto económico del tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina: un estudio en siete países y su extrapolación a nivel regional.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. METHODS: A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America's population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level. RESULTS: Every year, smoking is responsible for 33 576 billion dollars in direct costs to health systems. This amounts to 0.7% of the region's gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.3% of its health budget. Cardiovascular disease, COPD, and cancer were responsible for 30.3%, 26.9%, and 23.7% of these expenditures, respectively. Smoking-attributable costs ranged from 0.4% (Mexico and Peru) to 0.9% (Chile) of GDP and from 5.2% (Brazil) to 12.7% (Bolivia) of health expenditures. In the region, tax revenues from cigarette sales barely cover 37% of smoking-attributable health expenditures (8.1% in Bolivia and 67.3% in Argentina). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is responsible for a significant proportion of health spending in Latin America, and tax revenues from cigarette sales are far from covering it. The region's countries should seriously consider stronger measures, such as an increase in tobacco taxes.

Impacto económico del tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina: un estudio en siete países y su extrapolación a nivel regional / Financial impact of smoking on health systems in Latin America: A study of seven countries and extrapolation to the regional level

RESUMEN Objetivo Estimar los costos médicos directos atribuibles al tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina. Métodos Se utilizó un modelo de microsimulación para cuantificar el impacto económico en enfermedad cardiovascular y cerebrovascular, enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC), neumonía, cáncer de pulmón y otras nueve neoplasias. Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de datos epidemiológicos y de costos de los eventos. El modelo se calibró y validó para Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú, países que representan el 78% de la población de América Latina; luego se extrapolaron los resultados a nivel regional. Resultados Cada año el tabaquismo es responsable de 33 576 millones de dólares en costos directos para el sistema de salud. Esto equivale a 0,7% del producto interno bruto (PIB) de la región y a 8,3% del presupuesto sanitario. La enfermedad cardiovascular, la EPOC y el cáncer fueron responsables de 30,3%, 26,9% y 23,7% de este gasto, respectivamente. El costo atribuible al tabaquismo varió entre 0,4% (México y Perú) y 0,9% (Chile) del PIB y entre 5,2% (Brasil) y 12,7% (Bolivia) del gasto en salud. En la región, la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos apenas cubre 37% del gasto sanitario atribuible al tabaquismo (8,1% en Bolivia y 67,3% en Argentina). Conclusiones El tabaquismo es responsable de una importante proporción del gasto sanitario en América Latina, y la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos está lejos de llegar a cubrirlo. La profundización de medidas como el aumento de impuestos al tabaco debería ser seriamente considerada por los países de la región.

ABSTRACT Objective Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. Methods A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America’s population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level. Results Every year, smoking is responsible for 33 576 billion dollars in direct costs to health systems. This amounts to 0.7% of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.3% of its health budget. Cardiovascular disease, COPD, and cancer were responsible for 30.3%, 26.9%, and 23.7% of these expenditures, respectively. Smoking-attributable costs ranged from 0.4% (Mexico and Peru) to 0.9% (Chile) of GDP and from 5.2% (Brazil) to 12.7% (Bolivia) of health expenditures. In the region, tax revenues from cigarette sales barely cover 37% of smoking-attributable health expenditures (8.1% in Bolivia and 67.3% in Argentina). Conclusions Smoking is responsible for a significant proportion of health spending in Latin America, and tax revenues from cigarette sales are far from covering it. The region’s countries should seriously consider stronger measures, such as an increase in tobacco taxes.

[Foundations for the institutionalization of health technology assessment in Chile]. / Fundamentos para la institucionalización de la evaluación de tecnologías sanitarias en Chile.

The Chilean health system has not been completely oblivious to health technology assessment (HTA). In fact, significant advances in the areas of health prioritization using criteria of disease burden, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness among others, can be acknowledged. The introduction of the reform of Explicit Health Guarantees (GES) has been an important milestone in this arena, allowing the consideration of other dimensions such as social preferences in health. However, the application of HTA encompasses the entire health system and in that sense the institutionalization of a process properly defined and extensively validated in our country, is imminent. This paper discusses the foundations on which progress must be made in institutionalizing HTA, starting from the architecture of our health care system and in light of the economic and social reality. We review some background information first, and then discuss some important considerations in our context, including information on the institutional and legal framework. It concludes with the authors' view on some key elements to consider in HTA in Chile, which does not necessarily represent the vision of the Ministry of Health.

Carga de enfermedad atribuible al tabaquismo en Chile / Disease burden attributable to smoking in Chile

Objetivo: El objetivo inicial del proyecto, comenzado en el año 2005, fue seleccionar y desarrollar el marco metodológico más adecuado, así como elaborar un modelo económico común, con el fin de estimar la carga de enfermedad relacionada con el tabaquismo y la costo-efectividad de las intervenciones para controlar la epidemia del tabaco en América Latina.En este reporte se presentan los detalles del modelo económico, el proceso de calibración y validación para adecuarlo a la realidad de Chile y los resultados de carga de enfermedad atribuible al tabaquismo, medida tanto en términos de salud como económicos. Materiales e Métodos: Se describen a continuación los siguientes puntos relacionados con el desarrollo y utilización del modelo económico: 1) Etapa inicial de diagnóstico de situación, 2) Descripción del modelo, 3) Metodología utilizada para la selección de fuentes de información e incorporación de parámetros, 4) Proceso de calibración y validación, 5) Estimación de carga de enfermedad, 6) Aspectos metodológicos de los datos epidemiológicos considerados, y 7) Características de la información de costos de atención médica requerida para el modelo. Conclusión: En Chile el tabaquismo es responsable de una importante cantidad de muertes prematuras, enfermedad y costos sanitarios. El mayor peso está dado por las enfermedades cardiovasculares, la enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y el cáncer de pulmón. Su impacto en la mortalidad y en la calidad de vida es responsable en forma directa de la pérdida de 428.588 años de vida (por muerte prematura y discapacidad) cada año y explica el 18,5% de todas las muertes que se producen en el país. El tabaquismo genera además un costo directo anual de más de 1 billón de pesos chilenos. Es esperable que los resultados de este estudio contribuyan a tomar conciencia sobre los efectos del tabaco y sean un soporte para que los responsables de las políticas puedan llevar adelante intervenciones para reducir su consumo, lograr la implementación de mayores impuestos al tabaco e instalar las políticas de control promovidas por el Convenio Marco de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para el Control del Tabaco (CMCT-OMS).

Fundamentos para la Institucionalización de la Evaluación de Tecnologías Sanitarias en Chile / Foundations for the institutionalization of health technology assessment in Chile

The Chilean health system has not been completely oblivious to health technology assessment (HTA). In fact, significant advances in the areas of health prioritization using criteria of disease burden, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness among others, can be acknowledged. The introduction of the reform of Explicit Health Guarantees (GES) has been an important milestone in this arena, allowing the consideration of other dimensions such as social preferences in health. However, the application of HTA encompasses the entire health system and in that sense the institutionalization of a process properly defined and extensively validated in our country, is imminent. This paper discusses the foundations on which progress must be made in institutionalizing HTA, starting from the architecture of our health care system and in light of the economic and social reality. We review some background information first, and then discuss some important considerations in our context, including information on the institutional and legal framework. It concludes with the authors' view on some key elements to consider in HTA in Chile, which does not necessarily represent the vision of the Ministry of Health.

Costo-efectividad del screening y tratamiento de mujeres embarazadas y recién nacidos por trasmisión de chagas congénito / Cost-effectiveness of screening and treatment of pregnant women and newborns by transmission of congenital chagas

Objetivo: levara cabo una evaluación económica (EE) para explorar la relación costo-efectividad de una política nacional de screening a mujeres embarazadasy a los recién nacidos de madres positivas a esta enfermedad. Esta estrategiava acompañada del tratamiento actualmente disponible en el país, tanto para la mujer después del período de lactancia materna como para el niño con el medicamento Nifurtimox - Bayer. Metodología: se realiza un análisis comparativo de los costos y de los beneficios outcomes en salud de dos o más intervenciones sanitarias, obtenién dose una valoración por unidad extrade salud al pasar de una estrategia a otra. En este estudio y en consecuencia con los lineamientos para la EE propuestos en la Guía Metodológica, la perspectiva del análisis es la del sector público del sistema de salud. Resultados: Dentro de las posibles debilidades del estudio está el hecho que no se consideró costos ni pérdida de calidad de vida a causa de los efectos adversos del tratamiento con Nifurtimox, tema que está bien establecido en la literatura. Esto se debió la imposibilidad de contar con datos que permitieran cuantificar los costos adicionales para el sistema de salud como así mismo,el impacto negativo en la calidad de vida de los pacientes tratados. Sin embargo, la amplia sensibilización de parámetros de costos realizada nos permite establecer que su potencial inclusión, hubiera tenido una probabilidad baja de afectar los resultados. Con todo esto en cuenta, se espera que el presente estudio contribuya con información sistematizadade la enfermedad de Chagas, con datos inéditos en el ámbito del costo asociado a la atención de pacientes crónicos y con información de eficiencia costo-efectividad que permitan informar las decisiones acerca de la aplicación del screeninga mujeres embarazadas en nuestro país.

Evaluaciones económicas de tecnologías sanitarias: una perspectiva global para su aplicación en América Latina / Economic evaluations of health technologies: a global perspective for their implementation in Latin America

Fenómenos como el aumento progresivo del gasto en salud y el envejecimiento poblacional han obligado a los distintos países a considerar metodologías económicas que permitan obtener un mayor beneficio sanitario dentro de un contexto de recursos limitados. El presente artículo describe los componentes básicos a considerar en una evaluación de tecnología sanitaria, analiza el proceso de toma de decisión en un análisis de costo efectividad y reporta como dicha metodología ha sido implementada en América Latina y en el resto de mundo.

Phenomena as the progressive increase of health expenditure and the population aging have lead many countries to consider economic methodologies in order to obtain bigger sanitary benefits in contexts of limited resources. This article describes the basic components to consider in a health technology assessment , it analyses the process of decision making with cost-effectiveness analysis and reports how this methodology has been widely implemented in Latin America and the rest of the world.

El uso de modelos matemáticos en evaluación económica de intervenciones de salud / The use of mathematical modeling in economic evaluation of healthcare interventions

The use of mathematical modeling in economic evaluation is a frequent practice seeking toinform priority setting in healthcare. The main advantages are the possibilities of extending the analyses of randomized controlled trails to specific po-pulation groups, and in routine conditions. Likewise, modeling allows transforming intermediate outcomes (such as subrogate markers) into final health outcomes. Models, help estimating the potential impact of an intervention in the population prior implementation, and for different scenarios. In the case of diseases with complex epidemiological characteristics, such as transmission dynamics of inflectious diseases, models allow to reproduce these dynamics based on assumptions of the relationships among the variables. In this way, cost-effectiveness analysis of control interventions can be estimated. Additionally, models allow evaluating the uncertainty associated to the limitations of the available evidence, in a systematic, comprehensive and economic way. Nonetheless, the use of modeling is not free of criticisms, being the main ones related to the high number of assumptions and the luck of transparency of the internal processes (black box).

La construcción y uso de modelos matemáticos en evaluación económica es una práctica frecuente que buscainformar la toma de decisiones en salud. Dentro de sus principales ventajas se encuentra la posibilidad de extender el análisis o extrapolar los resultados de estudios clínicos aleatorizados en una población específica y en condiciones rutinarias. Asimismo, permiten simular resultados finales en salud a partir de resultados intermedios (ejemplo marcadores subrogados). Los modelos permiten estimar el impacto potencial de una intervención en diversos escenarios de imple-mentación. En el caso de enfermedades cuya epidemiología y dinámica de transmisión es compleja, como enfermedades infecciosas, los modelos permiten reproducir la dinámica de transmisión basado en supuestos acerca de las interrelaciones entre sus variables. Se puede estimar así la costo-efectividad de intervenciones que alteran estas interrelaciones. Adicionalmente, los modelos permiten investigar la incertidumbre asociada a las limitaciones de la evidencia disponible en forma sistemática, integral y a costos bajos. Sin embargo, el uso de modelos en evaluación económica no está libre de críticas, siendo las principales asociadas al gran número de supuestos y la falta de transparencia de sus procesos e inferencias internas.

Costo-efectividad del screening y tratamiento de mujeres embarazadas y recién nacidos por trasmisión de chagas congénito / Cost-effectiveness of screening and treatment of pregnant women and newborns by transmission of congenital chagas

Objetivo: El objetivo principal del presente estudio es la evaluación costo-efectividad de introducir screening y tratamiento para la detección de la transmisión congénita de Chagas. En este sentido la intervención consiste primeramente en screening a mujeres embarazadas para detectar la enfermedad de Chagas y en el caso de confirmación diagnóstica se procede al screening del recién nacido de madres confirmadas como positivas. La intervención considera el tratamiento con Nifurtimox (NFX) y seguimiento de los recién nacidos positivos. Asimismo, se procede a tratar a la madre con posterioridad al período de lactancia materna. Metodología: En términos generales el estudio se ajusta a la metodología internacionalmente validada para la realización de evaluaciones económicas en salud (Drummond et al. 2005; Gold et al. 1996). Al mis- mo tiempo, adhiere a las recomendaciones locales sobre evaluaciones económicas, recientemente publicadas (MINSAL, 2011a). En este respecto cabe hacer notar que la Guía (en su versión de borrador) recomienda la consideración de la perspectiva del paciente, además del sistema de salud. En este sentido, lo ideal habría sido implementar recolección de costos (vía entrevistas o encuestas) directamente de los pacientes, pero dado las limitaciones de tiempo y recursos para este estudio, como así mismo la reciente modificación a la Guía en este sentido, no se estimaron los costos del paciente. Conclusión: La evaluación económica realizada, nos permite concluir que la estrategia de screening por enfermedad de Chagas en mujeres embarazadas de zonas endémicas resulta ser costo efectiva en relación a la situación actual sin screening.