Cancer incidence in the Somali population of Olmsted County: A Rochester epidemiology project study.

BACKGROUND: Somali immigrants and refugees constitute one of the largest African ethnic groups immigrating to the United States over the past three decades with the majority resettling in the state of Minnesota. Previous studies have documented significant cancer screening disparities between the Somali population and the general population. However, little is known about cancer incidence among Somali groups living in the United States. METHODS: We determined the incidence of 18 types or sites of malignancy using ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes and compared them between Somali and non-Somali populations in Olmsted County, Minnesota utilizing the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records-linkage infrastructure for the years 2000-2020. Poisson regression models were used to model the rates for each malignancy. RESULTS: There was a higher incidence and relative risk of liver malignancies among the Somali population versus non-Somali population, but lower relative risk and incidence of the following malignancies: breast, cervical, and melanoma. After direct age-sex adjustment to the United States 2000 Census population, liver was the most common cancer in Somali men, while breast cancer was the most common malignancy in women. CONCLUSION: Malignancies related to infectious agents such as viral hepatitis have a higher incidence in the Somali immigrant population of Olmsted County. There is a lower incidence of malignancies related to lifestyle factors in this Somali population. Findings of this study may help inform cancer prevention and screening strategies among Somali communities in the United States.

The Minnesota attributable risk of kidney donation (MARKD) study: a retrospective cohort study of long-term (> 50 year) outcomes after kidney donation compared to well-matched healthy controls.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the long-term risks of living kidney donation. Well-designed studies with controls well-matched on risk factors for kidney disease are needed to understand the attributable risks of kidney donation. METHODS: The goal of the Minnesota Attributable Risk of Kidney Donation (MARKD) study is to compare the long-term (> 50 years) outcomes of living donors (LDs) to contemporary and geographically similar controls that are well-matched on health status. University of Minnesota (n = 4022; 1st transplant: 1963) and Mayo Clinic LDs (n = 3035; 1st transplant: 1963) will be matched to Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) controls (approximately 4 controls to 1 donor) on the basis of age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The REP controls are a well-defined population, with detailed medical record data linked between all providers in Olmsted and surrounding counties, that come from the same geographic region and era (early 1960s to present) as the donors. Controls will be carefully selected to have health status acceptable for donation on the index date (date their matched donor donated). Further refinement of the control group will include confirmed kidney health (e.g., normal serum creatinine and/or no proteinuria) and matching (on index date) of body mass index, smoking history, family history of chronic kidney disease, and blood pressure. Outcomes will be ascertained from national registries (National Death Index and United States Renal Data System) and a new survey administered to both donors and controls; the data will be supplemented by prior surveys and medical record review of donors and REP controls. The outcomes to be compared are all-cause mortality, end-stage kidney disease, cardiovascular disease and mortality, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectory and chronic kidney disease, pregnancy risks, and development of diseases that frequently lead to chronic kidney disease (e.g. hypertension, diabetes, and obesity). We will additionally evaluate whether the risk of donation differs based on baseline characteristics. DISCUSSION: Our study will provide a comprehensive assessment of long-term living donor risk to inform candidate living donors, and to inform the follow-up and care of current living donors.

Variability in Lipid Levels and Risk for Cardiovascular Disease: An Electronic Health Record-Based Population Cohort Study.

Background Larger within-patient variability of lipid levels has been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, measures of lipid variability require ≥3 measurements and are not currently used clinically. We investigated the feasibility of calculating lipid variability within a large electronic health record-based population cohort and assessed associations with incident CVD. Methods and Results We identified all individuals ≥40 years of age who resided in Olmsted County, MN, on January 1, 2006 (index date), without prior CVD, defined as myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, percutaneous coronary intervention, or CVD death. Patients with ≥3 measurements of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or triglycerides during the 5 years before the index date were retained. Lipid variability was calculated using variability independent of the mean. Patients were followed through December 31, 2020 for incident CVD. We identified 19 652 individuals (mean age 61 years; 55% female), who were CVD-free and had variability independent of the mean calculated for at least 1 lipid type. After adjustment, those with highest total cholesterol variability had a 20% increased risk of CVD (Q5 versus Q1 hazard ratio, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.06-1.37]). Results were similar for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Conclusions In a large electronic health record-based population cohort, high variability in total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with an increased risk of CVD, independent of traditional risk factors, suggesting it may be a possible risk marker and target for intervention. Lipid variability can be calculated in the electronic health record environment, but more research is needed to determine its clinical utility.

Synergistic interactions of obesity with sex, education, and smoking and accumulation of multi-morbidity (MM) across the lifespan.

Objectives: Obesity is a potentially modifiable risk factor that has been consistently associated with the development and progression of multi-morbidity (MM). However, obesity may be more problematic for some persons compared to others because of interactions with other risk factors. Therefore, we studied the effect of interactions between patient characteristics and overweight and obesity on the rate of accumulation of MM. Methods: We studied 4 cohorts of persons ages 20-, 40-, 60-, and 80-years residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota between 2005 and 2014 using the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) medical records-linkage system. Body mass index, sex, race, ethnicity, education, and smoking status were extracted from REP indices. The rate of accumulation of MM was calculated as the number of new chronic conditions accumulated per 10 person years through 2017. Poisson rate regression models were used to identify associations between characteristics and rate of MM accumulation. Additive interactions were summarized using relative excess risk due to interaction, attributable proportion of disease, and the synergy index. Results: Greater than additive synergistic associations were observed between female sex and obesity in the 20- and 40-year cohorts, between low education and obesity in the 20-year cohort (both sexes), and between smoking and obesity in the 40-year cohort (both sexes). Conclusions: Interventions targeted at women, persons with lower education, and smokers who also have obesity may result in the greatest reduction in the rate of MM accumulation. However, interventions may need to focus on persons prior to mid-life to have the greatest effect.

Smoking Behaviors Among Indigenous Pregnant People Compared to a Matched Regional Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking commercial tobacco products is highly prevalent in American Indian and Alaska Native (Indigenous) pregnancies. This disparity directly contributes to maternal and fetal mortality. Our objective was to describe cigarette smoking prevalence, cessation intervention uptake, and cessation behaviors of pregnant Indigenous people compared to sex and age-matched regional cohort. AIMS AND METHODS: Pregnancies from an Indigenous cohort in Olmsted County, Minnesota, identified in the Rochester Epidemiology Project, were compared to pregnancies identified in a sex and age-matched non-Indigenous cohort from 2006 to 2019. Smoking status was defined as current, former, or never. All pregnancies were reviewed to identify cessation interventions and cessation events. The primary outcome was smoking prevalence during pregnancy, with secondary outcomes measuring uptake of smoking cessation interventions and cessation. RESULTS: The Indigenous cohort included 57 people with 81 pregnancies, compared to 226 non-Indigenous people with 358 pregnancies. Smoking was identified during 45.7% of Indigenous pregnancies versus 11.2% of non-Indigenous pregnancies (RR: 3.25, 95% CI = 1.98-5.31, p ≤ .0001). Although there was no difference in uptake of cessation interventions between cohorts, smoking cessation was significantly less likely during Indigenous pregnancies compared to non-Indigenous pregnancies (OR: 0.23, 95% CI = 0.07-0.72, p = .012). CONCLUSIONS: Indigenous pregnant people in Olmsted County, Minnesota were more than three times as likely to smoke cigarettes during pregnancy compared to the non-indigenous cohort. Despite equivalent uptake of cessation interventions, Indigenous people were less likely to quit than non-Indigenous people. Understanding why conventional smoking cessation interventions were ineffective at promoting cessation during pregnancy among Indigenous women warrants further study. IMPLICATIONS: Indigenous pregnant people in Olmsted County, Minnesota, were greater than three times more likely to smoke during pregnancy compared to a regional age matched non-Indigenous cohort. Although Indigenous and non-Indigenous pregnant people had equivalent uptake of cessation interventions offered during pregnancy, Indigenous people were significantly less likely to quit smoking before fetal delivery. This disparity in the effectiveness of standard of care interventions highlights the need for further study to understand barriers to cessation in pregnant Indigenous people.

Incidence and Burden of Tricuspid Regurgitation in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is considered a risk factor for isolated tricuspid valve regurgitation (TR) in the absence of other known etiologies. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to identify the incidence of clinically significant isolated TR and its impact in patients with AF. METHODS: A population-based record linkage system was used to identify adult patients with new-onset AF. Patients with evidence of moderate or greater tricuspid valve disease, left-sided valve disease, pulmonary hypertension, prior cardiac surgery, impaired left ventricular systolic/diastolic function at baseline were excluded. The remaining patients (n = 691) were followed over time to identify development of moderate or greater TR and assess its impact on subsequent survival. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients (33.6%) developed moderate or greater TR. Among these, 73 patients (10.6%) had isolated TR without significant underlying structural heart disease. Incidence rate of any moderate or greater TR was 3.9 cases and that of isolated TR was 1.3 cases per 100 person-years. Permanent/persistent AF and female sex were associated with increased risk of developing TR, whereas rhythm control was associated with lower risk of TR. Over a median clinical follow-up of 13.3 years (IQR: 10.0-15.9 years), development of any moderate or greater TR (HR: 2.92; 95% CI: 2.29-3.73; P < 0.001) and isolated significant TR (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.03-2.22; P = 0.03) were associated with an adjusted increased risk of subsequent mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based cohort of patients with AF, nearly one-third developed moderate or greater TR over time. Incident significant TR and incident isolated significant TR portend a worse survival in patients with AF.

Indigenous Smoking Behaviors in Olmsted County, Minnesota: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe smoking behaviors and pharmaceutical cessation aid uptake in a population-based Indigenous cohort compared with an age- and sex-matched non-Indigenous cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using the health record-linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project (January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2019), smoking data of Indigenous residents of Olmsted County in Minnesota were abstracted to define the smoking prevalence, incidence, cessation, relapse after cessation, and pharmaceutical smoking cessation aid uptake compared with a matched non-Indigenous cohort. Prevalence was analyzed with a modified Poisson regression; cessation and relapse were evaluated with generalized estimating equations. Incidence was evaluated with a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence was higher in the Indigenous cohort (39.0% to 47.0%; n=898) than the matched cohort (25.6% to 30.3%; n=1780). Pharmaceutical uptake was higher among the Indigenous cohort (35.8% of n=584 ever smokers vs 16.3% of n=778 ever smokers; P<.001). Smoking cessation events occurred more frequently in the Indigenous cohort (relative risk, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.13; P<.001). Indigenous former smokers were more likely to resume smoking (relative risk, 3.03; 95% CI, 2.93 to 3.14; P<.001) compared with the matched cohort. These findings were independent of socioeconomic status, age, and sex. CONCLUSION: Smoking in this Indigenous cohort was more prevalent compared with a sex- and age-matched non-Indigenous cohort despite more smoking cessation events and higher use of smoking cessation aids in the Indigenous cohort. The relapse rate after achieving cessation in the Indigenous cohort was more than three times higher than the non-Indigenous cohort. This finding has not been previously described and represents a potential target for relapse prevention efforts in US Indigenous populations.

Associations of Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery With Stroke, Subsequent Arrhythmia, and Death : A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) after noncardiac surgery confers increased risks for ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA). How outcomes for postoperative AF after noncardiac surgery compare with those for AF occurring outside of the operative setting is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risks for ischemic stroke or TIA and other outcomes in patients with postoperative AF versus those with incident AF not associated with surgery. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Olmsted County, Minnesota. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with incident AF between 2000 and 2013. MEASUREMENTS: Patients were categorized as having AF occurring within 30 days of a noncardiac surgery (postoperative AF) or having AF unrelated to surgery (nonoperative AF). RESULTS: Of 4231 patients with incident AF, 550 (13%) had postoperative AF as their first-ever documented AF presentation. Over a mean follow-up of 6.3 years, 486 patients had an ischemic stroke or TIA and 2462 had subsequent AF; a total of 2565 deaths occurred. The risk for stroke or TIA was similar between those with postoperative AF and nonoperative AF (absolute risk difference [ARD] at 5 years, 0.1% [95% CI, -2.9% to 3.1%]; hazard ratio [HR], 1.01 [CI, 0.77 to 1.32]). A lower risk for subsequent AF was seen for patients with postoperative AF (ARD at 5 years, -13.4% [CI, -17.8% to -9.0%]; HR, 0.68 [CI, 0.60 to 0.77]). Finally, no difference was seen for cardiovascular death or all-cause death between patients with postoperative AF and nonoperative AF. LIMITATION: The population consisted predominantly of White patients; caution should be used when extrapolating the results to more racially diverse populations. CONCLUSION: Postoperative AF after noncardiac surgery is associated with similar risk for thromboembolism compared with nonoperative AF. Our findings have potentially important implications for the early postsurgical and subsequent management of postoperative AF. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute on Aging.

BRAF V600E Expression in Primary Melanoma and Its Association With Death: A Population-Based, Retrospective, Cross-Sectional Study.

Approximately 50% of melanomas contain BRAF mutations; the effects on survival are unclear. We aimed to determine whether mutant BRAF expression in melanoma differs according to age, sex, and melanoma-specific survival. A total of 638 patients who resided in Olmsted County, Minnesota, with a first lifetime diagnosis of melanoma between 1970 and 2009 were identified from the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP). Available tissue was analyzed for a BRAF V600E mutation with immunohistochemistry.

Pituitary Adenoma Incidence, Management Trends, and Long-term Outcomes: A 30-Year Population-Based Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a population-based study of pituitary adenoma epidemiology, including longitudinal trends in disease incidence, treatment patterns, and outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this study of incident pituitary adenomas in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from January 1, 1989, through December 31, 2019, we identified 785 patients who underwent primary screening, 435 of whom were confirmed as harboring incident pituitary adenomas and were included. Primary outcomes of interest included demographic characteristics, presenting features, and disease outcomes (tumor control, biochemical control, and complications). RESULTS: Among our 435 study patients, 438 unique pituitary adenomas were diagnosed at a median patient age of 39 years (interquartile range [IQR], 27 to 58 years). Adenomas were incidentally identified in 164 of the 438 tumors (37%). Common symptomatic presentations included hyperprolactinemia (188 of 438 [43%]) and visual field deficit (47 of 438 [11%]). Laboratory tests confirmed pituitary hormone hypersecretion in 238 of the 435 patients (55%), which was symptomatic in 222. The median tumor diameter was 8 mm (IQR, 5 to 17 mm). Primary management strategies were observation (156 of 438 tumors [36%]), medication (162 of 438 tumors [37%]), and transsphenoidal resection (120 of 438 tumors [27%]). Tumor and biochemical control were achieved in 398 (95%) and 216 (91%) secreting tumors, respectively. New posttreatment pituitary or visual deficits were noted in 43 (11%) and 8 (2%); apoplexy occurred in 28 (6%). Median clinical follow-up was 98 months (IQR, 47 to 189 months). Standardized incidence rates were 3.77 to 16.87 per 100,000 population, demonstrating linear expansion over time (R2=0.67). The mean overall standardized incidence rate was 10.1 per 100,000 population; final point prevalence was 175.1 per 100,000 population. CONCLUSION: Pituitary adenoma is a highly incident disease, with prolactin-secreting and incidental lesions representing the majority of tumors. Incidence rates and asymptomatic detection appear to be increasing over time. Presenting symptoms and treatment pathways are variable; however, most patients achieve favorable outcomes with observation or a single treatment modality.

Prevalence of co-occurring serious illness diagnoses and association with health care utilization at the end of life.

INTRODUCTION: End-of-life care differs by serious illness diagnosis. Cancer and dementia are serious illnesses that have been associated with less intensive end-of-life health care use. It is not known how health care utilization varies in the presence of >1 serious illness. METHODS: We used the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify persons living in a midwestern area who died on July 1, 2017-June 30, 2018 at age ≥65 years, and were seriously ill. We examined the number of emergency department (ED), hospital, and intensive care unit (ICU) stays in the last 6 months and the last 30 days of life. We used Poisson regression to determine the incidence rate ratio for ED, hospital, and ICU stay in the last 6 months and 30 days of life by number of serious illness diagnoses. For cancer and dementia, we examined the effect of an additional serious illness. RESULTS: We included a population of 1372 adults who were, on average, 84 years, 52% female, and 96% white. Approximately 41% had multiple serious illnesses. Compared to older adults with 1 serious illness diagnosis, rates of hospitalization, and ICU stay for adults with 2 or ≥3 serious illness diagnoses were at least 1.5 times higher in the last 6 months and the last 30 days of life. Rates of ED visits were significantly higher for older adults with 2 or ≥3 serious illness diagnoses in the last 6 months of life, but only higher for those with ≥3 versus 1 serious illness diagnosis in the last 30 days of life. For both cancer and dementia, rates of ED visits, hospitalization and ICU stay were lower for the condition alone than when an additional serious illness diagnosis was present. CONCLUSION: Having multiple serious illnesses increases the risk of health care utilization at the end of life.

Survival and associated comorbidities in inclusion body myositis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate survival and associated comorbidities in inclusion body myositis (IBM) in a population-based, case-control study. METHODS: We utilized the expanded Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records-linkage system, including 27 counties in Minnesota and Wisconsin, to identify patients with IBM, other inflammatory myopathies (IIM), and age/sex-matched population-controls. We compared the frequency of various comorbidities and survival among groups. RESULTS: We identified 50 IBM patients, 65 IIM controls and 294 population controls. Dysphagia was most common in IBM (64%) patients. The frequency of neurodegenerative disorders (dementia/parkinsonism) and solid cancers was not different between groups. Rheumatoid arthritis was the most common rheumatic disease in all groups. A total of 36% of IBM patients had a peripheral neuropathy, 6% had Sjögren's syndrome and 10% had a haematologic malignancy. T-cell large granular lymphocytic leukaemia was only observed in the IBM group. None of the IBM patients had hepatitis B or C, or HIV. IBM patients were 2.7 times more likely to have peripheral neuropathy, 6.2 times more likely to have Sjögren's syndrome and 3.9 times more likely to have a haematologic malignancy than population controls. IBM was associated with increased mortality, with a 10-year survival of 36% from index, compared with 67% in IIM and 59% in population controls. Respiratory failure or pneumonia (44%) was the most common cause of death. CONCLUSIONS: IBM is associated with lower survival, and higher frequency of peripheral neuropathy, Sjögren's syndrome and haematologic malignancies than the general population. Close monitoring of IBM-related complications is warranted.

The Long-Term Impact of Bariatric Surgery on Development of Atrial Fibrillation and Cardiovascular Events in Obese Patients: An Historical Cohort Study.

Objective: To determine whether early Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) reduces the risk of Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with obesity. Patients and Methods: We conducted a study of patients with class II and III obesity [body mass index (BMI) > 35 kg/m2] from Olmsted County, Minnesota, who underwent obesity clinic consultation between the years 1993-2012, and had either RYGB surgery within 1 year (RYGB-1Y group), or medically managed (No-RYGB group). The composite endpoint of MACE (all-cause mortality, stroke, heart failure admission and acute myocardial infarction) was the primary endpoint, with new-onset AF as the secondary endpoint. Results: Of the 1,009 study patients, 308 had RYGB-1Y and 701 were medically managed (No-RYGB). Overall, the age was 44.0 ± 12.4 (mean ± SD) years; BMI was 45.0 ± 6.8 kg/m2. The RYGB-1Y group had a lower rate of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44-0.88; P = 0.008) and lower mortality (adjusted HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.26-0.96; P = 0.04) than the No-RYGB group. The RYGB-1Y surgery was not associated with lower AF occurrence (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.40-1.10; P = 0.11). Conclusion: An early RYGB approach for BMI reduction was associated with lower rates of MACE.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs). METHODS: The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics. CONCLUSIONS: The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and gastroesophageal reflux disease: A population-based, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a risk factor or consequence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). This study aimed to determine whether patients with IPF were more likely to have GERD compared with age- and sex-matched controls who either had 1) interstitial lung disease (ILD) other than IPF or 2) no diagnosed lung disease (population control). METHODS: We used the medical records-linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) to identify patients with IPF who resided in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from January 1, 1997, through June 30, 2017. IPF cases were each matched with patients from 2 control groups (non-IPF ILD controls and population controls). We used conditional logistic regression to model associations between GERD diagnosis and IPF case status. P values were adjusted for multiple comparisons by using the Bonferroni adjustment (P values < .025 were considered statistically significant). RESULTS: One hundred thirteen IPF cases were identified and matched to 226 population controls and 226 controls with non-IPF ILD. After multivariable adjustment, the odds of having GERD were 1.78 times higher (95% CI, 1.09-2.91; P = .02) in IPF cases compared with population controls. After multivariable adjustment, the odds of having GERD were 0.46 times lower (95% CI, 0.23-0.94; P = .03) in IPF cases compared with non-IPF ILD controls. CONCLUSION: GERD may be an important contributor to the development of lung fibrosis. Thus, it should be investigated and addressed adequately when detected in patients with IPF and patients with non-IPF ILD.

How Is Surgical Risk Best Assessed? A Cohort Comparison of Measures in Total Joint Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: We designed this study to determine whether a Frailty Deficit Index (FI) confers added risk stratification beyond more traditional methods. The associations of preoperative scores on FI, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) with complications after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) were compared. METHODS: Using a single institution cohort of adult patients ≥50 years undergoing primary or revision TJA from 2005 to 2016, we assessed how well the FI, CCI, and ASA scores predicted risk of mortality, infection, and reoperation. We performed 7 models for each outcome: FI, ASA, and CCI alone, FI + ASA, FI + CCI, ASA + CCI, and FI + ASA + CCI. Cox proportional hazards regression methods were used to calculate the concordance (C-) statistic, a measure of discrimination. RESULTS: Of 18,397 TJAs included, 98.9% were alive 1 year postoperatively. For mortality, all models had concordance between 0.76 and 0.79, with the FI + ASA + CCI model performing highest (C-statistic 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.82). Unadjusted, FI had the strongest concordance (C-statistic 0.77). In FI + ASA + CCI, each increase in 1 comorbidity (of 32 total comorbidities) in the FI was significantly associated with a 12% increase in the rate of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.12, 95% CI 1.07-1.17, P < .001), 10% increase in infection (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14; P < .001), and 6% increase in reoperation (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05-1.08, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Identifying at-risk patients preoperatively is crucial and may result in adjustment of postoperative care. FI was independently associated with risk of adverse outcomes following TJA even after taking into account other predictive measures.

Epidemiology of autosomal-dominant polycystic liver disease in Olmsted county.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Isolated autosomal-dominant polycystic liver disease (ADPLD) is generally considered a rare disease. However, the frequency of truncating mutations to ADPLD genes in large, population sequencing databases is 1:496. With the increasing use of abdominal imaging, incidental detection of hepatic cysts and ADPLD has become more frequent. The present study was performed to ascertain the incidence and point prevalence of ADPLD in Olmsted County, MN, USA, and how these are impacted by the increasing utilisation of abdominal imaging. METHODS: The Rochester Epidemiology Project and radiology databases of Mayo Clinic and Olmsted Medical Center were searched to identify all subjects meeting diagnostic criteria for definite, likely, or possible ADPLD. Annual incidence rates were calculated using incident cases during 1980-2016 as numerator, and age- and sex-specific estimates of the population of Olmsted County as denominator. Point prevalence was calculated using prevalence cases as numerator, and age- and sex-specific estimates of the population of Olmsted County on 1 January 2010 as denominator. RESULTS: The incidence rate and point prevalence of combined definite and likely ADPLD were 1.01 per 100,000 person-years and 9.5 per 100,000 population, respectively. Only 15 of 35 definite and likely incident ADPLD cases had received a diagnostic code, and only 8 had clinically significant hepatomegaly. The incidence rates were much higher when adding possible cases, mainly identified through radiology databases, particularly in recent years and in older patients because of the increased utilisation of imaging studies. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically significant isolated ADPLD is a rare disease with a prevalence <1:10,000 population. The overall prevalence of ADPLD, however, to a large extent not clinically significant, is likely much higher and closer to the reported genetic prevalence. LAY SUMMARY: Isolated autosomal-dominant polycystic liver disease (ADPLD) is generally considered a rare disease. However, we demonstrate that it is a relatively common disease, which is rarely (<1:10,000 population) clinically significant.

Association of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery With Subsequent Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack.

Importance: Outcomes of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) after noncardiac surgery are not well defined. Objective: To determine the association of new-onset postoperative AF vs no AF after noncardiac surgery with risk of nonfatal and fatal outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, involving 550 patients who had their first-ever documented AF within 30 days after undergoing a noncardiac surgery (postoperative AF) between 2000 and 2013. Of these patients, 452 were matched 1:1 on age, sex, year of surgery, and type of surgery to patients with noncardiac surgery who were not diagnosed with AF within 30 days following the surgery (no AF). The last date of follow-up was December 31, 2018. Exposures: Postoperative AF vs no AF after noncardiac surgery. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Secondary outcomes included subsequent documented AF, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality. Results: The median age of the 452 matched patients was 75 years (IQR, 67-82 years) and 51.8% of patients were men. Patients with postoperative AF had significantly higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores than those in the no AF group (median, 4 [IQR, 2-5] vs 3 [IQR, 2-5]; P < .001). Over a median follow-up of 5.4 years (IQR, 1.4-9.2 years), there were 71 ischemic strokes or TIAs, 266 subsequent documented AF episodes, and 571 deaths, of which 172 were cardiovascular related. Patients with postoperative AF exhibited a statistically significantly higher risk of ischemic stroke or TIA (incidence rate, 18.9 vs 10.0 per 1000 person-years; absolute risk difference [RD] at 5 years, 4.7%; 95% CI, 1.0%-8.4%; HR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.35-5.37) compared with those with no AF. Patients with postoperative AF had statistically significantly higher risks of subsequent documented AF (incidence rate 136.4 vs 21.6 per 1000 person-years; absolute RD at 5 years, 39.3%; 95% CI, 33.6%-45.0%; HR, 7.94; 95% CI, 4.85-12.98), and all-cause death (incidence rate, 133.2 vs 86.8 per 1000 person-years; absolute RD at 5 years, 9.4%; 95% CI, 4.9%-13.7%; HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.32-2.09). No significant difference in the risk of cardiovascular death was observed for patients with and without postoperative AF (incidence rate, 42.5 vs 25.0 per 1000 person-years; absolute RD at 5 years, 6.2%; 95% CI, 2.2%-10.4%; HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.97-2.34). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, new-onset postoperative AF compared with no AF was associated with a significant increased risk of stroke or TIA. However, the implications of these findings for the management of postoperative AF, such as the need for anticoagulation therapy, require investigation in randomized trials.

Participation Bias in a Survey of Community Patients With Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVE: To identify differences between participants and nonparticipants in a survey of physical and psychosocial aspects of health among a population-based sample of patients with heart failure (HF). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Residents from 11 Minnesota counties with a first-ever code for HF (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision 428 and Tenth Revision I50) between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2016, were identified. Participants completed a questionnaire by mail or telephone. Characteristics and outcomes were extracted from medical records and compared between participants and nonparticipants. Response rate was calculated using guidelines of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. The association between nonparticipation and outcomes was examined using Cox proportional hazards regression for death and Andersen-Gill modeling for hospitalizations. RESULTS: Among 7911 patients, 3438 responded to the survey (American Association for Public Opinion Research response rate calculated using formula 2 = 43%). Clinical and demographic differences between participants and nonparticipants were noted, particularly for education, marital status, and neuropsychiatric conditions. After a mean ± SD of 1.5±1.0 years after survey administration, 1575 deaths and 5857 hospitalizations occurred. Nonparticipation was associated with a 2-fold increased risk for death (hazard ratio, 2.29; 95% CI, 2.05-2.56) and 11% increased risk for hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.22) after adjusting for age, sex, time from HF diagnosis to index date, marital status, coronary disease, arrhythmia, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, cancer, chronic kidney disease, arthritis, osteoporosis, depression, and anxiety. CONCLUSION: In a large survey of patients with HF, participation was associated with notable differences in clinical and demographic characteristics and outcomes. Examining the impact of participation is critical to draw inference from studies of patient-reported measures.