Rapid Plaque Progression Is Independently Associated With Hyperglycemia and Low HDL Cholesterol in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease: A PARADIGM Study.

BACKGROUND: We assessed whether combinations of cardiometabolic risk factors independently predict coronary plaque progression (PP) and major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary artery disease. METHODS: Patients with known or suspected stable coronary artery disease (60.9±9.3 years, 55.4% male) undergoing serial coronary computed tomography angiographies (≥2 years apart), with clinical characterization and follow-up (N=1200), were analyzed from the PARADIGM study (Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging). Plaque volumes measured in coronary segments (≥2 mm in diameter) were summed to provide whole heart plaque volume (mm3) and percent atheroma volume (plaque volume/vessel volume×100; %) per patient at baseline and follow-up. Rapid PP was defined as a percent atheroma volume increase of ≥1.0%/y. Major adverse cardiovascular events included nonfatal myocardial infarction, death, and unplanned coronary revascularization. RESULTS: In an interscan period of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 1.9), rapid PP occurred in 341 patients (28%). At multivariable analysis, the combination of cardiometabolic risk factors defined as metabolic syndrome predicted rapid PP (odds ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.12-2.03]; P=0.007) together with older age, smoking habits, and baseline percent atheroma volume. Among single cardiometabolic variables, high fasting plasma glucose (diabetes or fasting plasma glucose >100 mg/dL) and low HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; <40 mg/dL in males and <50 mg/dL in females) were independently associated with rapid PP, in particular when combined (odds ratio, 2.37 [95% CI, 1.56-3.61]; P<0.001). In a follow-up of 8.23 years (interquartile range, 5.92-9.53), major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 201 patients (17%). At multivariable Cox analysis, the combination of high fasting plasma glucose with high systemic blood pressure (treated hypertension or systemic blood pressure >130/85 mm Hg) was an independent predictor of events (hazard ratio, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.10-2.90]; P=0.018) together with family history, baseline percent atheroma volume, and rapid PP. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stable coronary artery disease, the combination of hyperglycemia with low HDL-C is associated with rapid PP independently of other risk factors, baseline plaque burden, and treatment. The combination of hyperglycemia with high systemic blood pressure independently predicts the worse outcome beyond PP. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02803411.

Impact of statins based on high-risk plaque features on coronary plaque progression in mild stenosis lesions: results from the PARADIGM study.

AIMS: To investigate the impact of statins on plaque progression according to high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaque (HRP) features and to identify predictive factors for rapid plaque progression in mild coronary artery disease (CAD) using serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed mild stenosis (25-49%) CAD, totaling 1432 lesions from 613 patients (mean age, 62.2 years, 63.9% male) and who underwent serial CCTA at a ≥2 year inter-scan interval using the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography Imaging (NCT02803411) registry. The median inter-scan period was 3.5 ± 1.4 years; plaques were quantitatively assessed for annualized percent atheroma volume (PAV) and compositional plaque volume changes according to HRP features, and the rapid plaque progression was defined by the ≥90th percentile annual PAV. In mild stenotic lesions with ≥2 HRPs, statin therapy showed a 37% reduction in annual PAV (0.97 ± 2.02 vs. 1.55 ± 2.22, P = 0.038) with decreased necrotic core volume and increased dense calcium volume compared to non-statin recipient mild lesions. The key factors for rapid plaque progression were ≥2 HRPs [hazard ratio (HR), 1.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-3.49; P = 0.042], current smoking (HR, 1.69; 95% CI 1.09-2.57; P = 0.017), and diabetes (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.07-2.22; P = 0.020). CONCLUSION: In mild CAD, statin treatment reduced plaque progression, particularly in lesions with a higher number of HRP features, which was also a strong predictor of rapid plaque progression. Therefore, aggressive statin therapy might be needed even in mild CAD with higher HRPs. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

Glycemic control is independently associated with rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden: a retrospective case-control study from the PARADIGM registry.

BACKGROUND: The baseline coronary plaque burden is the most important factor for rapid plaque progression (RPP) in the coronary artery. However, data on the independent predictors of RPP in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden are limited. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the predictors for RPP in patients without coronary plaques on baseline coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images. METHODS: A total of 402 patients (mean age: 57.6 ± 10.0 years, 49.3% men) without coronary plaques at baseline who underwent serial coronary CCTA were identified from the Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry and included in this retrospective study. RPP was defined as an annual change of ≥ 1.0%/year in the percentage atheroma volume (PAV). RESULTS: During a median inter-scan period of 3.6 years (interquartile range: 2.7-5.0 years), newly developed coronary plaques and RPP were observed in 35.6% and 4.2% of the patients, respectively. The baseline traditional risk factors, i.e., advanced age (≥ 60 years), male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and current smoking status, were not significantly associated with the risk of RPP. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level (per 1% increase) measured at follow-up CCTA was independently associated with the annual change in the PAV (ß: 0.098, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.048-0.149; P < 0.001). The multiple logistic regression models showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level had an independent and positive association with the risk of RPP. The optimal predictive cut-off value of the hemoglobin A1c level for RPP was 7.05% (sensitivity: 80.0%, specificity: 86.7%; area under curve: 0.816 [95% CI: 0.574-0.999]; P = 0.017). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective case-control study, the glycemic control status was strongly associated with the risk of RPP in patients without a baseline coronary plaque burden. This suggests that regular monitoring of the glycemic control status might be helpful for preventing the rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis irrespective of the baseline risk factors. Further randomized investigations are necessary to confirm the results of our study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

The role of cardiac CT throughout the full cardiac cycle in diagnosing patent foramen ovale in patients with acute stroke.

OBJECTIVES: We explored the hypothesis that the diagnostic performance of cardiac computed tomography (CT) throughout the full cardiac cycle would be superior to single-phase CT and comparable to transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) in diagnosing patent foramen ovale (PFO). METHODS AND RESULTS: From May 2011 to April 2015, 978 patients with stroke were diagnosed with PFO by TEE. In patients with stroke, cardiac CT was performed if the patients had more than two cardiovascular risk factors. We prospectively enrolled 70 patients with an indication for cardiac CT. Cardiac CT images were reconstructed at 10% increments of the R-R interval. The sensitivity of cardiac CT throughout the full cardiac cycle in diagnosing PFO was compared to that for TEE and single-phase cardiac CT. To evaluate the specificity of cardiac CT, we analyzed patients without PFO confirmed by TEE who underwent cardiac CT within 1 month of pre-cardiac surgery. Sixty-six patients with cardiac CT and TEE were included in the final analysis. Throughout the full cardiac cycle, cardiac CT had a sensitivity of 89.4% and a specificity of 92.3% in diagnosing PFO, compared to TEE as a reference. PFO was primarily detected in the 60% and 70% intervals in 10-phase reconstructed images. The sensitivity of PFO diagnosis with cardiac CT was 81.8% when analyzing both the 60% and 70% intervals instead of the full cardiac cycle. CONCLUSION: Cardiac CT throughout the full cardiac cycle outperforms single-phase cardiac CT in detecting PFO. Cardiac CT can be used as an alternative method to TEE for detecting PFO in stroke patients. KEY POINTS: • Throughout the full cardiac cycle, cardiac computed tomography (CT) had a sensitivity of 89.4% and a specificity of 92.3% in diagnosing patent foramen ovale (PFO), compared to transesophageal echocardiography. • The sensitivity of diagnosing patent foramen ovale with cardiac CT was 81.8% when analyzing 60% and 70% R-R intervals instead of the full cardiac cycle. • Cardiac CT with retrospective electrocardiographic gating throughout the full cardiac cycle can increase the detectability of PFO, compared to single-phase cardiac CT.

Association between Aortic Valve Calcification Progression and Coronary Atherosclerotic Plaque Volume Progression in the PARADIGM Registry.

Background Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is a key feature of aortic stenosis, and patients with aortic stenosis often have coronary -artery disease. Therefore, proving the association between the progression of AVC and coronary atherosclerosis could improve follow-up and treatment strategies. Purpose To explore the association between the progression of AVC and the progression of total and plaque volume composition from a large multicenter registry of serial coronary CT angiographic examinations. Materials and Methods A prospective multinational registry (PARADIGM) of consecutive participants who underwent serial coronary CT angiography at intervals of every 2 years or more was performed (January 2003-December 2015). AVC and the total and plaque volume composition at baseline and follow-up angiography were quantitatively analyzed. Plaque volumes were normalized by using the mean total analyzed vessel length of the study population. Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were constructed. Results Overall, 594 participants (mean age ± standard deviation, 62 years ± 10; 330 men) were included (mean interval between baseline and follow-up angiography, 3.9 years ± 1.5). At baseline, the AVC score was 31 Agatston units ± 117, and the normalized total plaque volume at baseline was 122 mm3 ± 219. After adjustment for age, sex, clinical risk factors, and medication use, AVC was independently associated with total plaque volume (standardized ß = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.32; P < .001) and both calcified (ß = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.18, 0.34; P < .001) and noncalcified (ß = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.25; P < .001) plaque volumes at baseline. The progression of AVC was associated with the progression of total plaque volume (ß = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.22; P = .01), driven solely by calcified plaque volume (ß = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.14, 0.34; P < .001) but not noncalcified plaque volumes (ß = -0.06; 95% CI: -0.14, 0.03; P = .17). Conclusion The overall burden of coronary atherosclerosis was associated with aortic valve calcification at baseline. However, the progression of aortic valve calcification was associated with only the progression of calcified plaque volume but not with the -progression of noncalcified plaque volume. Clinical trial registration no. NCT02803411 © RSNA, 2021 See also the editorial by Sinitsyn in this issue.

Concurrent smoking and alcohol consumers had higher triglyceride glucose indices than either only smokers or alcohol consumers: a cross-sectional study in Korea.

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index is a noninsulin-based marker for insulin resistance (IR) in general practice. Although smoking and heavy drinking have been regarded as major risk factors for various chronic diseases, there is limited evidence regarding the combined effects of smoking and alcohol consumption on IR. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the TyG index and smoking and alcohol consumption using two Korean population-based datasets. METHODS: This study included 10,568 adults in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) and 9586 adults in the Korean Initiatives on Coronary Artery Calcification (KOICA) registry datasets. Multivariate logistic analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between smoking and alcohol consumption and the TyG index. To assess the predictive value of smoking and alcohol consumption on high TyG index, the area under the curve (AUC) were compared and net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analyses were derived. RESULTS: The combined effect of smoking and alcohol consumption was an independent risk factor of a higher TyG index in the KNHANES (adjusted odds ratio: 4.33, P < .001) and KOICA (adjusted odds ratio: 1.94, P < .001) datasets. Adding smoking and alcohol consumption to the multivariate logistic models improved the model performance for the TyG index in the KNHANES (AUC: from 0.817 to 0.829, P < .001; NRI: 0.040, P < .001; IDI: 0.017, P < .001) and KOICA (AUC: from 0.822 to 0.826, P < .001; NRI: 0.025, P = .006; IDI: 0.005, P < .001) datasets. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking and alcohol consumption were independently associated with the TyG index. Concurrent smokers and alcohol consumers were more likely to have a TyG index that was ≥8.8 and higher than the TyG indices of non-users and those who exclusively consumed alcohol or smoking tobacco.

Association between blood pressure classification defined by the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines and coronary artery calcification progression in an asymptomatic adult population.

Aims: Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is widely used for cardiovascular risk stratification in asymptomatic population. We assessed the association of new blood pressure (BP) classification using the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines with coronary artery calcification (CAC) progression according to age in asymptomatic adults. Methods and results: Overall, 10 839 asymptomatic Korean adults (23.4% aged ≤45 years) who underwent at least two CACS evaluations for health check-up were enrolled. Participants were categorized by age (≤45 and >45 years) and BP [normal (<120/<80 mmHg, untreated), elevated (120-129/<80 mmHg, untreated), Stage 1 hypertension (untreated BP 130-139/80-89 mmHg) or Stage 2 hypertension (BP ≥140/≥90 mmHg or anti-hypertensive use)] groups. CAC progression was defined as a difference of ≥2.5 between the square root (√) of the baseline and follow-up CACS. During a mean 3.3-year follow-up, the incidence of CAC progression was 13.5% and 36.3% in individuals aged ≤45 and >45 years, respectively. After adjustment for age, sex, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, obesity, current smoking, and baseline CACS, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for CAC progression in elevated BP, Stage 1 hypertension, and Stage 2 hypertension compared to normal BP were 1.43 (0.96-2.14) (P = 0.077), 1.64 (1.20-2.23) (P = 0.002), and 2.38 (1.82-3.12) (P < 0.001) in the ≤45 years group and 1.11 (0.95-1.30) (P = 0.179), 1.17 (1.04-1.32) (P = 0.009), and 1.52 (1.39-1.66) (P < 0.001) in the >45 years group, respectively. Conclusion: Newly defined Stage 1 hypertension is independently associated with CAC progression in asymptomatic adults regardless of age.

Independent association of serum uric acid levels with arterial stiffness in the absence of established cardiovascular disorders.

BACKGROUND: The impact of serum uric acid (SUA) on atherosclerosis has been suspected to be epiphenomenal owing to its close relationship with metabolic abnormalities. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between SUA levels and arterial stiffness in the absence of established cardiovascular (CV) disorders. METHODS: The relationship between SUA levels and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was examined in 353 asymptomatic adults (57 ± 8 years, 11.9% men) without established CV disorders defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg; total cholesterol ≥240 mg/dL; low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <40 mg/dL; fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL; body mass index ≥25.0 kg/m2 ; current smoking; and history of medication for hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia. Subjects were stratified into four groups based on the quartiles of their SUA levels. RESULTS: Mean baPWV was significantly different in all groups: group I, 1320 ± 195 cm/s; group II, 1336 ± 195 cm/s; group III, 1404 ± 199 cm/s; and group IV, 1483 ± 248 cm/s (P < .001). SUA levels were significantly correlated with baPWV (r = .364) (P < .001). Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that SUA (ß: 32.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 18.99-54.87), together with age (ß: 11.44; 95% CI: 9.36-13.53) and systolic BP (ß: 8.98; 95% CI: 6.80-11.16), was significantly associated with baPWV (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: High SUA levels have an independent association with increased arterial stiffness even in subjects without established CV disorders.

Association of High-Density Calcified 1K Plaque With Risk of Acute Coronary Syndrome.

Importance: Plaque morphologic measures on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) have been associated with future acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, the evolution of calcified coronary plaques by noninvasive imaging is not known. Objective: To ascertain whether the increasing density in calcified coronary plaque is associated with risk for ACS. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter case-control cohort study included individuals enrolled in ICONIC (Incident Coronary Syndromes Identified by Computed Tomography), a nested case-control study of patients drawn from the CONFIRM (Coronary CT Angiography Evaluation for Clinical Outcomes: An International Multicenter) registry, which included 13 study sites in 8 countries. Patients who experienced core laboratory-verified ACS after baseline CCTA (n = 189) and control individuals who did not experience ACS after baseline CCTA (n = 189) were included. Patients and controls were matched 1:1 by propensity scores for age; male sex; presence of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes; family history of premature coronary artery disease (CAD); current smoking status; and CAD severity. Data were analyzed from November 2018 to March 2019. Exposures: Whole-heart atherosclerotic plaque volume was quantitated from all coronary vessels and their branches. For patients who underwent invasive angiography at the time of ACS, culprit lesions were coregistered to baseline CCTA lesions by a blinded independent reader. Low-density plaque was defined as having less than 130 Hounsfield units (HU); calcified plaque, as having more than 350 HU and subcategorized on a voxel-level basis into 3 strata: 351 to 700 HU, 701 to 1000 HU, and more than 1000 HU (termed 1K plaque). Main Outcomes and Measures: Association between calcium density and future ACS risk. Results: A total of 189 patients and 189 matched controls (mean [SD] age of 59.9 [9.8] years; 247 [65.3%] were male) were included in the analysis and were monitored during a mean (SD) follow-up period of 3.9 (2.5) years. The overall mean (SD) calcified plaque volume (>350 HU) was similar between patients and controls (76.4 [101.6] mm3 vs 99.0 [156.1] mm3; P = .32), but patients who experienced ACS exhibited less 1K plaque (>1000 HU) compared with controls (3.9 [8.3] mm3 vs 9.4 [23.2] mm3; P = .02). Individuals within the highest quartile of 1K plaque exhibited less low-density plaque, as a percentage of total plaque, when compared with patients within the lower 3 quartiles (12.6% [10.4%] vs 24.9% [20.6%]; P < .001). For 93 culprit precursor lesions detected by CCTA, the volume of 1K plaque was lower compared with the maximally stenotic lesion in controls (2.6 [7.2] mm3 vs 7.6 [20.3] mm3; P = .01). The per-patient and per-lesion results were similar between the 2 groups when restricted to myocardial infarction cases. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study suggest that, on a per-patient and per-lesion basis, 1K plaque was associated with a lower risk for future ACS and that measurement of 1K plaque may improve risk stratification beyond plaque burden.

Identification and Quantification of Cardiovascular Structures From CCTA: An End-to-End, Rapid, Pixel-Wise, Deep-Learning Method.

OBJECTIVES: This study designed and evaluated an end-to-end deep learning solution for cardiac segmentation and quantification. BACKGROUND: Segmentation of cardiac structures from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images is laborious. We designed an end-to-end deep-learning solution. METHODS: Scans were obtained from multicenter registries of 166 patients who underwent clinically indicated CCTA. Left ventricular volume (LVV) and right ventricular volume (RVV), left atrial volume (LAV) and right atrial volume (RAV), and left ventricular myocardial mass (LVM) were manually annotated as ground truth. A U-Net-inspired, deep-learning model was trained, validated, and tested in a 70:20:10 split. RESULTS: Mean age was 61.1 ± 8.4 years, and 49% were women. A combined overall median Dice score of 0.9246 (interquartile range: 0.8870 to 0.9475) was achieved. The median Dice scores for LVV, RVV, LAV, RAV, and LVM were 0.938 (interquartile range: 0.887 to 0.958), 0.927 (interquartile range: 0.916 to 0.946), 0.934 (interquartile range: 0.899 to 0.950), 0.915 (interquartile range: 0.890 to 0.920), and 0.920 (interquartile range: 0.811 to 0.944), respectively. Model prediction correlated and agreed well with manual annotation for LVV (r = 0.98), RVV (r = 0.97), LAV (r = 0.78), RAV (r = 0.97), and LVM (r = 0.94) (p < 0.05 for all). Mean difference and limits of agreement for LVV, RVV, LAV, RAV, and LVM were 1.20 ml (95% CI: -7.12 to 9.51), -0.78 ml (95% CI: -10.08 to 8.52), -3.75 ml (95% CI: -21.53 to 14.03), 0.97 ml (95% CI: -6.14 to 8.09), and 6.41 g (95% CI: -8.71 to 21.52), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A deep-learning model rapidly segmented and quantified cardiac structures. This was done with high accuracy on a pixel level, with good agreement with manual annotation, facilitating its expansion into areas of research and clinical import.

Relationship between the optimal cut-off values of anthropometric indices for predicting metabolic syndrome and carotid intima-medial thickness in a Korean population.

Anthropometric measurements are simple and useful methods for predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS) because obesity is a predominant feature of MetS. Although carotid intima-medial thickness (IMT) is generally used to evaluate subclinical atherosclerosis, the relationship between the optimal cut-off anthropometric values for predicting MetS and carotid IMT has not been analyzed in a Korean population.Anthropometric measurements including waist circumference (WC), waist hip ratio (WHR), waist height ratio (WHtR), body mass index (BMI), and carotid IMT were assessed in 2560 Korean subjects without previous history of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, neurological abnormalities, or malignancy who participated in baseline health examinations in a self-referral setting in the Seoul area between April 2010 and November 2012. MetS was defined using the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III criteria.In both men and women, the levels of all anthropometric indices were significantly higher in subjects with MetS than in those without MetS. According to the receiver operating characteristic curve, the values of 80.8 cm for WC, 0.87 for WHR, 0.52 for WHtR, and 24.6 kg/m for BMI were the optimal cut-offs for predicting MetS in women. The values of 89.3 cm for WC, 0.90 for WHR, 0.52 for WHtR, and 25.1 kg/m for BMI were the optimal cut-offs for predicting MetS in men. After adjusting for confounding factors, the WC optimal cut-off values for predicting MetS were independently associated with carotid IMT in both women and men (women: ß = 0.016, P = .008; men: ß = 0.033, P = .009). The optimal BMI cut-off value was independently associated with carotid IMT in men only (ß = 0.027, P = .032).Among anthropometric indices including WC, WHR, WHtR, and BMI, the WC optimal cut-off values for MetS were independently associated with an increased carotid IMT in both women and men in a Korean population.

Point of Care Clinical Risk Score to Improve the Negative Diagnostic Utility of an Agatston Score of Zero: Averting the Need for Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcification is a marker of underlying atherosclerotic vascular disease. The absence of coronary artery calcification is associated with a low prevalence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), but it cannot be ruled out completely. We sought to develop a clinical tool that can be added to Agatston score of zero to rule out obstructive CAD with high accuracy. METHODS: We developed a clinical score retrospectively from a cohort of 4903 consecutive patients with an Agatston score of zero. Patients with prior diagnosis of CAD, coronary percutaneous coronary intervention, or surgical revascularization were excluded. Obstructive CAD was defined as any epicardial vessel diameter narrowing of ≥50%. The score was validated using an external cohort of 4290 patients with an Agatston score of zero from a multinational registry. RESULTS: The score consisted of 7 variables: age, sex, typical chest pain, dyslipidemia, hypertension, family history, and diabetes mellitus. The model was robust with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65-0.76) in the derivation cohort and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.65-0.72) in the validation cohort. Patients were divided into 3 risk groups based on the score: low (≤6), intermediate (7-13), and high (≥14). Patients who score ≤6 have a negative likelihood ratio of 0.42 for obstructive CAD, whereas those who score ≥14 have a positive likelihood ratio of >5.5 for obstructive CAD. The outcome was ruled out in >98% of patients with a score ≤6 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a score that may be used to identify the likelihood of obstructive CAD in patients with an Agatston score of zero, which may be used to direct the need for additional testing. However, the results of this retrospective analysis are hypothesis generating and before clinical implementation should be validated in a trial with a prospectively collected data.

Predicting Cardiac Arrest and Respiratory Failure Using Feasible Artificial Intelligence with Simple Trajectories of Patient Data.

We introduce a Feasible Artificial Intelligence with Simple Trajectories for Predicting Adverse Catastrophic Events (FAST-PACE) solution for preparing immediate intervention in emergency situations. FAST-PACE utilizes a concise set of collected features to construct an artificial intelligence model that predicts the onset of cardiac arrest or acute respiratory failure from 1 h to 6 h prior to its occurrence. Data from the trajectory of 29,181 patients in intensive care units of two hospitals includes periodic vital signs, a history of treatment, current health status, and recent surgery. It excludes the results of laboratory data to construct a feasible application in wards, out-hospital emergency care, emergency transport, or other clinical situations where instant medical decisions are required with restricted patient data. These results are superior to previous warning scores including the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). The primary outcome was the feasibility of an artificial intelligence (AI) model predicting adverse events 1 h to 6 h prior to occurrence without lab data; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of this model was 0.886 for cardiac arrest and 0.869 for respiratory failure 6 h before occurrence. The secondary outcome was the superior prediction performance to MEWS (net reclassification improvement of 0.507 for predicting cardiac arrest and 0.341 for predicting respiratory failure) and NEWS (net reclassification improvement of 0.412 for predicting cardiac arrest and 0.215 for predicting respiratory failure) 6 h before occurrence. This study suggests that AI consisting of simple vital signs and a brief interview could predict a cardiac arrest or acute respiratory failure 6 h earlier.

Prognostic Implications of the Left Atrial Volume Index in Patients with Progressive Mitral Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on the prognosis of progressive mitral stenosis (MS). We evaluated the factors associated with adverse events in patients with progressive MS. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 259 consecutive patients with pure progressive MS with a mitral valve area (MVA) between 1.5 and 2.0 cm². The primary outcome measures were a composite endpoint of cardiac death, heart failure hospitalization, mitral valve surgery or percutaneous mitral valvuloplasty, and ischemic stroke. RESULTS: The mean patient age was 62 ± 12 years, and the mean MVA was 1.71 ± 0.15 cm². Over a median follow-up duration of 52 months, a total of 41 patients (18.3%) experienced the composite endpoint. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, prior stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 4.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.16-9.54; p < 0.001) and left atrial volume index (LAVI) of > 50 mL/m² (HR, 4.45; 95% CI, 1.31-15.31; p = 0.017) were identified as independent predictors of the composite endpoint, even after adjusting for age and sex. Patients with a LAVI ≤ 50 mL/m² demonstrated favorable event-free survival compared with those with a LAVI > 50 mL/m² in either the overall population (p < 0.001) or asymptomatic patients (p = 0.002). Atrial fibrillation (AF), left ventricular mass index (LVMI), MVA, and mean diastolic pressure were factors independently associated with LAVI (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A deleterious impact of a high LAVI on outcome was observed in patients with progressive MS. The LAVI was mainly influenced by the presence of AF, the severity of MS, and LVMI in this population.

Population-based dementia prediction model using Korean public health examination data: A cohort study.

The early identification and prevention of dementia is important for reducing its worldwide burden and increasing individuals' quality of life. Although several dementia prediction models have been developed, there remains a need for a practical and precise model targeted to middle-aged and Asian populations. Here, we used national Korean health examination data from adults (331,126 individuals, 40-69 years of age, mean age: 52 years) from 2002-2003 to predict the incidence of dementia after 10 years. We divided the dataset into two cohorts to develop and validate of our prediction model. Cox proportional hazards models were used to construct dementia prediction models for the total group and sex-specific subgroups. Receiver operating characteristics curves, C-statistics, calibration plots, and cumulative hazards were used to validate model performance. Discriminative accuracy as measured by C-statistics was 0.81 in the total group (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.81 to 0.82), 0.81 in the male subgroup (CI = 0.80 to 0.82), and 0.81 in the female subgroup (CI = 0.80 to 0.82). Significant risk factors for dementia in the total group were age; female sex; underweight; current hypertension; comorbid psychiatric or neurological disorder; past medical history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, or hypertension; current smoking; and no exercise. All identified risk factors were statistically significant in the sex-specific subgroups except for low body weight and current hypertension in the female subgroup. These results suggest that public health examination data can be effectively used to predict dementia and facilitate the early identification of dementia within a middle-aged Asian population.

Clinical feasibility of catheter-directed selective intracoronary computed tomography angiography using an extremely low dose of iodine in patients with coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the clinical feasibility of catheter-directed selective computed tomography angiography (S-CTA) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 65 patients diagnosed with CAD who underwent conventional computed tomography angiography (C-CTA). C-CTA was performed with 60-90 mL of contrast medium (370 mg iodine/mL), whereas S-CTA was performed with 15 mL of contrast medium and 17.19 mg iodine/mL. Luminal enhancement range, homogeneity of luminal enhancement, image quality, plaque volume (PV), and percent aggregate plaque volume (%APV) were measured. Paired Student's t test, Wilcoxon rank-sum test, and Pearson's correlation coefficient were used to compare two methods. RESULTS: Luminal enhancement was significantly higher on S-CTA than on C-CTA (324.4 ± 8.0 Hounsfield unit (HU) vs. 312.0 ± 8.0 HU, p < 0.0001 in the per-vessel analysis). Transluminal attenuation gradient showed a significantly slower reduction pattern on S-CTA than on C-CTA (-0.65 HU/10 mm vs. -0.89 HU/10 mm, p < 0.0001 in the per-vessel analysis). Image noise was significantly lower on S-CTA than on C-CTA (39.6 ± 10.0 HU vs. 43.9 ± 9.4 HU, p < 0.0001). There was excellent correlation between S-CTA and C-CTA with respect to PV and %APV (r = 0.99, r = 0.98, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: S-CTA might be useful in facilitating atherosclerotic plaque analysis and providing guidance for complex lesions such as chronic total occlusion, particularly in cases in which on-site procedure planning is required. KEY POINTS: • Selective computed tomography angiography (S-CTA) can serve as an intraprocedural computed tomography angiography protocol. • S-CTA was performed with low dose of iodine compared with conventional computed tomography angiography. • S-CTA enables on-site atherosclerotic plaque analysis.

Benefit of Four-Dimensional Computed Tomography Derived Ejection Fraction of the Left Atrial Appendage to Predict Thromboembolic Risk in the Patients with Valvular Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Decreased left atrial appendage (LAA) emptying velocity in transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is related with higher incidence of thrombus and increased risk of stroke. Patients with valve disease are at higher risk of thrombus formation before and after surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of 4-dimensional cardiac computed tomography (4DCT) to predict the risk of thrombus formation. METHODS: Between March 2010 to March 2015, total of 62 patients (mean 60±15 years old, male: 53.2%) who underwent 4DCT and TEE for cardiac valve evaluation before surgery were retrospectively included in the current study. Fractional area change in TEE view and emptying velocity at left atrial appendage in TEE view (VeTEE) were measured. Ejection fraction (EF) of left atrial appendage in computed tomography (EFCT) was calculated by 4DCT with full volume analysis. The best cut-off value of EFCT predicting presence of spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) or thrombus was evaluated, and correlation between the parameters were also estimated. RESULTS: SEC or thrombus was observed in 45.2%. EFCT and VeTEE were significantly correlated (r=0.452, p<0.001). However, fractional area change measured by TEE showed no correlation with VeTEE (r=0.085, p=0.512). EFCT <37.5% best predicted SEC or thrombus in the patients with valve disease who underwent 4DCT and TEE (area under the curve, 0.654; p=0.038). CONCLUSIONS: In the patients who underwent 4DCT for cardiac valve evaluation before surgery, EFCT by volume analysis might have additional role to evaluate LAA function and estimate the risk of thrombus.

Relationship of insulin resistance estimated by triglyceride glucose index to arterial stiffness.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance (IR) is an important risk factor for subclinical atherosclerosis. This study evaluated the relationship between the triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, which is a simple and reliable surrogate marker for IR, and arterial stiffness. METHODS: This study included 2560 Korean subjects without a previous history of coronary artery disease, stroke, and malignancies who participated in a community-based cohort study. Arterial stiffness was measured using the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). RESULTS: All participants were stratified into four groups based on the quartile of the TyG index. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome and diabetes significantly increased with increasing TyG index quartile. The mean baPWV was significantly different among all groups (group I [lowest]: 1421 ± 242 vs. group II: 1480 ± 244 vs. group III: 1534 ± 260 vs. group IV [highest]: 1575 ± 279 cm/s; p < 0.001). The TyG index values were correlated with baPWV (r = 0.224, p < 0.001). Multiple regression analysis showed that age (ß = 0.410), male gender (ß = 0.051), increased blood pressure (ß = 0.266), and TyG index (ß = 0.158) were associated with baPWV (p < 0.05, respectively). TyG index was independently related to baPWV in both non-diabetics and diabetics. CONCLUSIONS: The TyG index is independently associated with arterial stiffness in a relatively healthy Korean population.

Sinus node dysfunction after surgical atrial fibrillation ablation with concomitant mitral valve surgery: Determinants and clinical outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate determinants and prognosis of sinus node dysfunction (SND) after surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) with concomitant mitral valve (MV) surgery. A total of 202 patients who underwent surgical AF ablation with concomitant MV surgery were studied. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: SND was defined as electrocardiographic manifestations, such as junctional bradycardia, symptomatic sick sinus syndrome, or symptomatic sinus bradycardia, 7 days after surgery. Baseline clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, rhythm outcomes [AF recurrence or permanent pacemaker (PM) implantation] at 6 and 12 months, and clinical outcomes were compared between patients without SND (n = 165) and those with SND (n = 37) after surgery. RESULTS: Patients with SND showed a significantly larger left atrial volume index (LAVI) and a higher right ventricular systolic pressure than those without SND. In addition, there was a higher likelihood for AF recurrence and PM implantation in patients with SND than in those without SND. Although clinical outcomes did not differ between the two groups, patients with SND had a significantly longer length of hospital stay (p<0.001). In a multivariate analysis, preoperative LAVI was a structural risk factor for SND [hazard ratio (HR): 1.126 per 10 mL/m2; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0206-1.236; p = 0.001]. An LAVI cut-off value of 105 mL/m2 showed significant predictive power for SND [sensitivity: 62%; specificity: 64%; area under the curve (AUC): 0.678; p = 0.002]. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, preoperative LA size was a structural risk factor for SND after surgical AF ablation during MV surgery. SND was associated with an increased risk for AF recurrence and implantation of permanent PM in patients undergoing concomitant surgical ablation of AF with MV surgery.

Quantitative measurement of lipid rich plaque by coronary computed tomography angiography: A correlation of histology in sudden cardiac death.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recent advancements in coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) have allowed for the quantitative measurement of high-risk lipid rich plaque. Determination of the optimal threshold for Hounsfield units (HU) by CCTA for identifying lipid rich plaque remains unknown. We aimed to validate reliable cut-points of HU for quantitative assessment of lipid rich plaque. METHODS: 8 post-mortem sudden coronary death hearts were evaluated with CCTA and histologic analysis. Quantitative plaque analysis was performed in histopathology images and lipid rich plaque area was defined as intra-plaque necrotic core area. CCTA images were analyzed for quantitative plaque measurement. Low attenuation plaque (LAP) was defined as any pixel < 30, 45, 60, 75, and 90 HU cut-offs within a coronary plaque. The area of LAP was calculated in each cross-section. RESULTS: Among 105 cross-sections, 37 (35.2%) cross-sectional histology images contained lipid rich plaque. Although the highest specificity for identifying lipid rich plaque was shown with <30 HU cut-off (88.2%), sensitivity (e.g. 55.6% for <75 HU, 16.2% for <30 HU) and negative predictive value (e.g. 75.9% for <75 HU, 65.9% for <30 HU) tended to increase with higher HU cut-offs. For quantitative measurement, <75 HU showed the highest correlation coefficient (0.292, p = 0.003) and no significant differences were observed between lipid rich plaque area and LAP area between histology and CT analysis (Histology: 0.34 ±â€¯0.73 mm2, QCT: 0.37 ±â€¯0.71 mm2, p = 0.701). CONCLUSIONS: LAP area by CCTA using a <75 HU cut-off value demonstrated high sensitivity and quantitative agreement with lipid rich plaque area by histology analysis.