Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Impact of the value driven outcomes program among cataract surgery patients in Singapore: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare cost is increasing rapidly in Singapore. Moving towards a value-based healthcare framework enables a sustainable health system. The National University Hospital (NUH) implemented the Value Driven Outcome (VDO) Program for cataract surgery due to its high volume and cost variability. We aimed to evaluate the association between VDO program implementation and costs and quality outcomes for cataract surgery in NUH. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis for cataract surgery episodes between January 2015 and December 2018. Using segmented linear regression models, we estimate the changes in levels and trends of cost and quality outcomes post-program implementation. We adjusted for autoregression and various confounders. RESULTS: Following VDO program implementation, the total cost of cataract surgery had a significantly decreased by $327.23 (95% CI: -$421.04 to -$233.43; p < 0.01) and the trend significantly decreased by $13.75 per month (95% CI: -$23.19 to -$4.30 per month; p < 0.01). There was a small improvement in the combined quality outcome score (0.028, 95% CI: 0.016 to 0.040; p < 0.01), but the trend remained unchanged. CONCLUSION: The VDO program was associated with a reduction in cost without compromising on quality outcomes. The program provides a structured methodology to measure performances, and through these data, initiatives were implemented to improve value. There are benefits to providing a data reporting system to physicians to understand actual care costs and quality outcomes achieved by individual patients with defined clinical conditions.

Indole-3-Propionic Acid, a Gut Microbiota Metabolite, Protects Against the Development of Postoperative Delirium.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to determine preoperative gut microbiota metabolites that may be associated with postoperative delirium (POD) development in patients and further study in rodents. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: POD occurs in 9% to 50% of older patients undergoing anesthesia/surgery but lacks effective treatments or prevention. High-throughput metabolomics using liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry has accelerated disease-related biomarkers discovery. We performed metabolomic studies in humans to identify potential metabolite biomarkers linked to POD and examined potential mechanisms in rodents. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational cohort study to examine the metabolomic changes that were associated with the development of POD. Then the gut microbiota-related metabolomic changes were recapitulated by gut microbiota perturbation in rodents. POD was assessed in mice using a battery of behavioral tests including novel objective test, Y-maze test, open-field test, and buried food test. The mechanisms through which gut microbiota-related metabolomic changes influenced POD were examined using chemogenetics. RESULTS: Indole-3-propionic acid (IPA) is a gut microbiota metabolite that belongs to the indole family. Baseline plasma levels of IPA were significantly inversely correlated with the onset of POD in 103 (17 cases) human individuals. This relationship was validated in preclinical mouse models for POD: reducing IPA levels through gut microbiota perturbation promoted POD-like behavior. More importantly, IPA administration deterred POD-like behavior. Colonization of germ-free mice with mutant Clostridium sporogenes that did not produce IPA-promoted POD-like behavior. Chemogenetic studies revealed that the protective effect of IPA in mice was mediated, in part, by peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma coactivator 1-alpha in hippocampal interneurons. CONCLUSIONS: Gut microbiota-derived IPA is an important molecule implicated in the pathogenesis of POD, which could potentially be harnessed for POD prevention.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of pharmacotherapy versus prostatic urethral lift as initial therapy for patients with moderate benign prostatic hyperplasia.

AIM: The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an upfront minimally invasive surgical procedure, the prostatic urethral lift (PUL), as an initial treatment for patients with moderate benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), against current first-line pharmacotherapy with combination medical therapy. METHOD: A micro-simulation model was developed using TreeAge Pro to compare two treatment strategies - initial treatment with combination medical therapy (alpha-blocker + 5-ARI) versus an upfront prostatic urethral lift procedure. The impact on disease progression, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was analyzed. A Markov model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used to estimate the costs and effects of the different strategies. The cost-effectiveness of the strategies at different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds was then examined. RESULTS: Incremental costs (versus no prostatic urethral lift) were S$13,600 (1 year) and S$8,700 (5 years). Incremental QALYs were 0.07 (1 year) and 0.22 (5 years). An upfront PUL procedure was more expensive but also more effective than pharmacotherapy, with an incremental cost per QALY gain of approximately S$39,400. It is a cost-effective treatment option at the willingness-to-pay threshold of S$50,000. CONCLUSION: Prostatic urethral lift is a cost-effective initial treatment option for men with moderate symptoms of benign prostatic hyperplasia.

Impact of Subsidy on the Use of Personalized Medicine in Breast Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Advances in adjuvant therapy have led to increased survival rates after cancer prognosis. Herceptin, a targeted therapy, had first been introduced to Singapore in 2006. We aimed to assess whether subsidies for Herceptin from 2012 will lead to changes in uptake among HER2-positive patients by socioeconomic groups. METHODS: Random-intercept logistic regression was used to model diagnostic test and Herceptin uptake using the Singapore Breast Cancer Cohort from 2006 to 2018, adjusting for covariates such as education, housing type, and marital status before and after subsidies. Interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate the impact of Herceptin subsidy on treatment uptake. Concentration index was also computed by ethnicity and education to measure inequality in uptake. RESULTS: We found that the odds of diagnostic testing were not associated with socioeconomic factors. Nevertheless, before subsidies, highest education attained (odds ratio 4.57; 95% confidence interval 1.90-11.02; P<.01) significantly increased the odds of Herceptin uptake. These odds were leveled after the introduction of subsidies to Herceptin treatment from 2012. After subsidy, we also found that Herceptin uptake increased significantly by 11.4% (95% confidence interval 3.47-19.4; P=.016). In addition, inequality of Herceptin use decreased especially among the Indians, where at least 40% were used in the higher educated group before subsidy. CONCLUSIONS: Subsidies have lowered the barriers to Herceptin uptake for marginalized individuals. Having targeted subsidies for socioeconomically disadvantaged groups may work more efficiently in providing ease of access than a blanket subsidy in Herceptin.

ELAVL4, splicing, and glutamatergic dysfunction precede neuron loss in MAPT mutation cerebral organoids.

Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) because of MAPT mutation causes pathological accumulation of tau and glutamatergic cortical neuronal death by unknown mechanisms. We used human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived cerebral organoids expressing tau-V337M and isogenic corrected controls to discover early alterations because of the mutation that precede neurodegeneration. At 2 months, mutant organoids show upregulated expression of MAPT, glutamatergic signaling pathways, and regulators, including the RNA-binding protein ELAVL4, and increased stress granules. Over the following 4 months, mutant organoids accumulate splicing changes, disruption of autophagy function, and build-up of tau and P-tau-S396. By 6 months, tau-V337M organoids show specific loss of glutamatergic neurons as seen in individuals with FTD. Mutant neurons are susceptible to glutamate toxicity, which can be rescued pharmacologically by the PIKFYVE kinase inhibitor apilimod. Our results demonstrate a sequence of events that precede neurodegeneration, revealing molecular pathways associated with glutamate signaling as potential targets for therapeutic intervention in FTD.

Systematic characterization of mutations altering protein degradation in human cancers.

The ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS) is the primary route for selective protein degradation in human cells. The UPS is an attractive target for novel cancer therapies, but the precise UPS genes and substrates important for cancer growth are incompletely understood. Leveraging multi-omics data across more than 9,000 human tumors and 33 cancer types, we found that over 19% of all cancer driver genes affect UPS function. We implicate transcription factors as important substrates and show that c-Myc stability is modulated by CUL3. Moreover, we developed a deep learning model (deepDegron) to identify mutations that result in degron loss and experimentally validated the prediction that gain-of-function truncating mutations in GATA3 and PPM1D result in increased protein stability. Last, we identified UPS driver genes associated with prognosis and the tumor microenvironment. This study demonstrates the important role of UPS dysregulation in human cancer and underscores the potential therapeutic utility of targeting the UPS.

Smoking, life expectancy, and chronic disease in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States: A microsimulation model.

The substantial social and economic burden attributable to smoking is well-known, with heavy smokers at higher risk of chronic disease and premature mortality than light smokers and nonsmokers. In aging societies with high rates of male smoking such as in East Asia, smoking is a leading preventable risk factor for extending lives (including work-lives) and healthy aging. However, little is known about whether smoking interventions targeted at heavy smokers relative to light smokers lead to disproportionately larger improvements in life expectancy and prevalence of chronic diseases and how the effects vary across populations. Using a microsimulation model, we examined the health effects of smoking reduction by simulating an elimination of smoking among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States. We found that life expectancy would increase by 0.2 to 1.5 years among light smokers and 2.5 to 3.7 years among heavy smokers. Whereas both interventions led to an increased life expectancy and decreased the prevalence of chronic diseases in all three countries, the life-extension benefits were greatest for those who would otherwise have been heavy smokers. Our findings illustrate how smoking interventions may have significant economic and social benefits, especially for life extension, that vary across countries.

Healthcare utilisation in the last year of life in internal medicine, young-old versus old-old.

BACKGROUND: With increasing cost of healthcare in our aging society, a consistent pain point is that of end-of-life care. It is particularly difficult to prognosticate in non-cancer patients, leading to more healthcare utilisation without improving quality of life. Additionally, older adults do not age homogenously. Hence, we seek to characterise healthcare utilisation in young-old and old-old at the end-of-life. METHODS: We conducted a single-site retrospective review of decedents under department of Advanced Internal Medicine (AIM) over a year. Young-old is defined as 65-79 years; old-old as 80 years and above. Data collected was demographic characteristics; clinical data including Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), FRAIL-NH and advance care planning (ACP); healthcare utilisation including days spent in hospital, hospital admissions, length of stay of terminal admission and clinic visits; and quality of end-of-life care including investigations and symptomatic control. Documentation was individually reviewed for quality of communication. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-nine older adult decedents. Old-old decedents were mostly females (63% vs. 42%, p = 0.004), higher CCI scores (7.7 vs 6.6, p = 0.007), similarly frail with lower polypharmacy (62.9% vs 71.9%, p = 0.01). ACP uptake was low in both, old-old 15.9% vs. young-old 17.5%. Poor prognosis was conveyed to family, though conversation did not result in moderating extent of care. Old-old had less healthcare utilisation. Adjusting for sex, multimorbidity and frailty, old-old decedents had 7.3 ± 3.5 less hospital days in their final year. Further adjusting for cognition and residence, old-old had 0.5 ± 0.3 less hospital admissions. When accounted for home care services, old-old spent 2.7 ± 0.8 less hospital days in their last admission. CONCLUSION: There was high healthcare utilisation in older adults, but especially young-old. Enhanced education and goal-setting are needed in the acute care setting. ACP needs to be reinforced in acute care with further research to evaluate if it reduces unnecessary utilisation at end-of-life.

Nitrogen mustard gel-induced inflammation triggers lymphomatoid papulosis in patients with mycosis fungoides.

Lymphomatoid papulosis (LyP) is a paraneoplastic primary cutaneous CD30+ lymphoproliferative disorder (LPD) that has been associated with malignant lymphomas, most commonly mycosis fungoides (MF). We observed 10 patients with MF who developed severe inflammation after using nitrogen-mustard (NM) gel from 1 to 8 months and who developed LyP. We hypothesized that NM gel produced local inflammation, which induced CD30 expression in malignant T cells in situ leading to the appearance of LyP papules. The high frequency of induction of LyP lesions in patients with severe inflammation while on treatment with NM gel suggests an association between inflammatory stimuli and development of LyP. Our observation provides insight into the pathogenesis of CD30+ LPD.

Vitamin B6 Addiction in Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

Cancer cells rely on altered metabolism to support abnormal proliferation. We performed a CRISPR/Cas9 functional genomic screen targeting metabolic enzymes and identified PDXK-an enzyme that produces pyridoxal phosphate (PLP) from vitamin B6-as an acute myeloid leukemia (AML)-selective dependency. PDXK kinase activity is required for PLP production and AML cell proliferation, and pharmacological blockade of the vitamin B6 pathway at both PDXK and PLP levels recapitulated PDXK disruption effects. PDXK disruption reduced intracellular concentrations of key metabolites needed for cell division. Furthermore, disruption of PLP-dependent enzymes ODC1 or GOT2 selectively inhibited AML cell proliferation and their downstream products partially rescued PDXK disruption induced proliferation blockage. Our work identifies the vitamin B6 pathway as a pharmacologically actionable dependency in AML.

Muscarinic acetylcholine receptor regulates self-renewal of early erythroid progenitors.

Adult stem and progenitor cells are uniquely capable of self-renewal, and targeting this process represents a potential therapeutic opportunity. The early erythroid progenitor, burst-forming unit erythroid (BFU-E), has substantial self-renewal potential and serves as a key cell type for the treatment of anemias. However, our understanding of mechanisms underlying BFU-E self-renewal is extremely limited. Here, we found that the muscarinic acetylcholine receptor, cholinergic receptor, muscarinic 4 (CHRM4), pathway regulates BFU-E self-renewal and that pharmacological inhibition of CHRM4 corrects anemias of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), aging, and hemolysis. Genetic down-regulation of CHRM4 or pharmacologic inhibition of CHRM4 using the selective antagonist PD102807 promoted BFU-E self-renewal, whereas deletion of Chrm4 increased erythroid cell production under stress conditions in vivo. Moreover, muscarinic acetylcholine receptor antagonists corrected anemias in mouse models of MDS, aging, and hemolysis in vivo, extending the survival of mice with MDS relative to that of controls. The effects of muscarinic receptor antagonism on promoting expansion of BFU-Es were mediated by cyclic AMP induction of the transcription factor CREB, whose targets up-regulated key regulators of BFU-E self-renewal. On the basis of these data, we propose a model of hematopoietic progenitor self-renewal through a cholinergic-mediated "hematopoietic reflex" and identify muscarinic acetylcholine receptor antagonists as potential therapies for anemias associated with MDS, aging, and hemolysis.

Stroke Factors Associated with Thrombolysis Use in Hospitals in Singapore and US: A Cross-Registry Comparative Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to describe and compare the characteristics of 2 stroke populations in Singapore and in St. Louis, USA, and to document thrombolysis rates and contrast factors associated with its uptake in both populations. METHODS: The stroke populations described were from the Singapore Stroke Registry (SSR) in -Singapore and the Cognitive Rehabilitation Research Group Stroke Registry (CRRGSR) in St. Louis, MO, USA. The registries were compared in terms of demographics and stroke risk factor history. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with thrombolysis uptake. RESULTS: A total of 39,323 and 8,106 episodes were recorded in SSR and CRRGSR, respectively, from 2005 to 2012. Compared to CRRGSR, patients in SSR were older, male, and from the ethnic majority. Thrombolysis rates in SSR and CRRGSR were 2.5 and 8.2%, respectively, for the study period. History of ischemic heart disease or atrial fibrillation was associated with increased uptake in both populations, while history of stroke was associated with lower uptake. For SSR, younger age and males were associated with increased uptake, while having a history of smoking or diabetes was associated with decreased uptake. For CRRGSR, ethnic minority status was associated with decreased uptake. CONCLUSIONS: The comparison of stroke populations in Singapore and St Louis revealed distinct differences in clinicodemographics of the 2 groups. Thrombolysis uptake was driven by nonethnicity demographics in Singapore. Ethnicity was the only demographic driver of uptake in the CRRGSR population, highlighting the need to target ethnic minorities in increasing access to thrombolysis.

Displacement analysis of myocardial mechanical deformation (DIAMOND) reveals segmental susceptibility to doxorubicin-induced injury and regeneration.

Zebrafish are increasingly utilized to model cardiomyopathies and regeneration. Current methods evaluating cardiac function have known limitations, fail to reliably detect focal mechanics, and are not readily feasible in zebrafish. We developed a semiautomated, open-source method - displacement analysis of myocardial mechanical deformation (DIAMOND) - for quantitative assessment of 4D segmental cardiac function. We imaged transgenic embryonic zebrafish in vivo using a light-sheet fluorescence microscopy system with 4D cardiac motion synchronization. Our method permits the derivation of a transformation matrix to quantify the time-dependent 3D displacement of segmental myocardial mass centroids. Through treatment with doxorubicin, and by chemically and genetically manipulating the myocardial injury-activated Notch signaling pathway, we used DIAMOND to demonstrate that basal ventricular segments adjacent to the atrioventricular canal display the highest 3D displacement and are also the most susceptible to doxorubicin-induced injury. Thus, DIAMOND provides biomechanical insights into in vivo segmental cardiac function scalable to high-throughput research applications.

A Review of Primary Cutaneous CD30+ Lymphoproliferative Disorders.

Primary cutaneous CD30+ lymphoproliferative diseases (LPDs) comprise a range of diseases (LyP, pcALCL, and borderline lesions) with broad histologic and phenotypical characteristics, although they all share the common feature of a favorable prognosis notwithstanding histology suggestive of a high-grade lymphoma. Given their cytomorphologic similarities, accurate diagnosis and workup are needed to differentiate these distinct entities in order to best use novel biologic therapies and avoid aggressive overtreatment. Moreover, although CD30+ LPDs have a favorable prognosis, secondary malignancies should be considered as part of the initial evaluation, and patients should have ongoing surveillance.

Correction to: The Role of Oncolytic Viruses in the Treatment of Melanoma.

A correction was made to a sentence in the original article to provide additional clarification in the "Other Oncolytic Viruses" section.

The relationship between anogenital HPV types and incident HIV infection among men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru: Findings from a prospective cohort study.

Although it is known that individuals living with HIV have a higher HPV prevalence, the impact of individual HPV types on HIV acquisition is less clear. In this prospective cohort study we investigated the relationship between HPV types and incident HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW) in Lima, Peru. Six hundred HIV-negative Peruvian MSM and TW participated in a 2-year study with biannual visits. At baseline, participants completed a computerized, self-administered questionnaire on sexual behavior and HPV knowledge and underwent a physical exam including anogenital swabs for HPV DNA (37 genotypes via linear array testing) and HIV testing; follow-up visits included the questionnaire and HIV testing. Participant mean age was 25 years (range = 18-40), with 48.9% self-identifying as gay and 86.5% reporting having sex exclusively with men. At baseline, 530 participants had HPV DNA present (61.1% with high-risk HPV, 84.9% with low-risk HPV). Among 571 participants who returned for any study visit, 73 (12.8%) became infected with HIV during the 2-year follow-up (6% HIV incidence). Compared to those without HIV, more participants with HIV had any HPV type present (97.3% vs. 87.6%, respectively, p = .01), more than one HPV type (79.5% vs. 58.2%, p < .01), or high-risk HPV (72.6% vs. 51.4%, p < .01). Some participants lost to follow-up could have been HIV-positive, which would have affected the relationship of HPV and HIV infection. Our prospective study showed that participants with any HPV type, more than one HPV type, or high-risk HPV were more likely to test positive for HIV. Although most studies have shown HPV-HIV coinfection, our findings illustrate the strong relationship between individual HPV types and HIV infection. This further illustrates the potential utility of HPV vaccine for MSM and TW, not only for HPV prevention but also possibly for HIV prevention.

The Role of Oncolytic Viruses in the Treatment of Melanoma.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Oncolytic virotherapy is a new approach to the treatment of cancer and its success in the treatment of melanoma represents a breakthrough in cancer therapeutics. This paper provides a review of the current literature on the use of oncolytic viruses (OVs) in the treatment of melanoma. RECENT FINDINGS: Talimogene laherparepvec (T-VEC) is the first OV approved for the treatment of melanoma and presents new challenges as it enters the clinical setting. Several other OVs are at various stages of clinical and pre-clinical development for the treatment of melanoma. Reports from phase Ib-III clinical trials combining T-VEC with checkpoint blockade are encouraging and demonstrate potential added benefit of combination immunotherapy. OVs have recently emerged as a standard treatment option for patients with advanced melanoma. Several OVs and therapeutic combinations are in development. Immunooncolytic virotherapy combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors is promising for the treatment of advanced melanoma.