Polygenic risk-stratified screening for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in high-risk endemic areas of China: a cost-effectiveness study.

Background: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has an extremely high incidence rate in Southern China, resulting in a severe disease burden for the local population. Current EBV serologic screening is limited by false positives, and there is opportunity to integrate polygenic risk scores for personalized screening which may enhance cost-effectiveness and resource utilization. Methods: A Markov model was developed based on epidemiological and genetic data specific to endemic areas of China, and further compared polygenic risk-stratified screening [subjects with a 10-year absolute risk (AR) greater than a threshold risk underwent EBV serological screening] to age-based screening (EBV serological screening for all subjects). For each initial screening age (30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, and 65-69 years), a modeled cohort of 100,000 participants was screened until age 69, and then followed until age 79. Results: Among subjects aged 30 to 54 years, polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies were more cost-effective than age-based screening strategies, and almost comprised the cost-effectiveness efficiency frontier. For men, screening strategies with a 1-year frequency and a 10-year absolute risk (AR) threshold of 0.7% or higher were cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below the willingness to pay (¥203,810, twice the local per capita GDP). Specifically, the strategies with a 10-year AR threshold of 0.7% or 0.8% are the most cost-effective strategies, with an ICER ranging from ¥159,752 to ¥201,738 compared to lower-cost non-dominated strategies on the cost-effectiveness frontiers. The optimal strategies have a higher probability (29.4-35.8%) of being cost-effective compared to other strategies on the frontier. Additionally, they reduce the need for nasopharyngoscopies by 5.1-27.7% compared to optimal age-based strategies. Likewise, for women aged 30-54 years, the optimal strategy with a 0.3% threshold showed similar results. Among subjects aged 55 to 69 years, age-based screening strategies were more cost-effective for men, while no screening may be preferred for women. Conclusion: Our economic evaluation found that the polygenic risk-stratified screening could improve the cost-effectiveness among individuals aged 30-54, providing valuable guidance for NPC prevention and control policies in endemic areas of China.

A comprehensive predictive model for radiation-induced brain injury in risk stratification and personalized radiotherapy of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Radiation-induced brain injury (RBI) is a severe radiotoxicity for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients, greatly affecting their long-term life quality and survival. We aim to establish a comprehensive predictive model including clinical factors and newly developed genetic variants to improve the precision of RBI risk stratification. MATERIALS AND METHODS: By performing a large registry-based retrospective study with magnetic resonance imaging follow-up on RBI development, we conducted a genome-wide association study and developed a polygenic risk score (PRS) for RBI in 1189 NPC patients who underwent intensity-modulated radiotherapy. We proposed a tolerance dose scheme for temporal lobe radiation based on the risk predicted by PRS. Additionally, we established a nomogram by combining PRS and clinical factors for RBI risk prediction. RESULTS: The 38-SNP PRS could effectively identify high-risk individuals of RBI (P = 1.42 × 10-34). Based on genetic risk calculation, the recommended tolerance doses of temporal lobes should be 57.6 Gy for individuals in the top 10 % PRS subgroup and 68.1 Gy for individuals in the bottom 50 % PRS. Notably, individuals with high genetic risk (PRS > P50) and receiving high radiation dose in the temporal lobes (D0.5CC > 65 Gy) had an approximate 50-fold risk over individuals with low PRS and receiving low radiation dose (HR = 50.09, 95 %CI = 24.27-103.35), showing an additive joint effect (Pinteraction < 0.001). By combining PRS with clinical factors including age, tumor stage, and radiation dose of temporal lobes, the predictive accuracy was significantly improved with C-index increased from 0.78 to 0.85 (P = 1.63 × 10-2). CONCLUSIONS: The PRS, together with clinical factors, could improve RBI risk stratification and implies personalized radiotherapy.

The interaction and mediation effects between the host genetic factors and Epstein-Barr virus VCA-IgA in the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Previous studies have demonstrated strong associations between host genetic factors and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) VCA-IgA with the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, the specific interplay between host genetics and EBV VCA-IgA on NPC risk is not well understood. In this two-stage case-control study (N = 4804), we utilized interaction and mediation analysis to investigate the interplay between host genetics (genome-wide association study-derived polygenic risk score [PRS]) and EBV VCA-IgA antibody level in the NPC risk. We employed a four-way decomposition analysis to assess the extent to which the genetic effect on NPC risk is mediated by or interacts with EBV VCA-IgA. We consistently found a significant interaction between the PRS and EBV VCA-IgA on NPC risk (discovery population: synergy index [SI] = 2.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.85-3.10; replication population: SI = 3.10, 95% CI = 2.17-4.44; all pinteraction < 0.001). Moreover, the genetic variants included in the PRS demonstrated similar interactions with EBV VCA-IgA antibody. We also observed an obvious dose-response relationship between the PRS and EBV VCA-IgA antibody on NPC risk (all ptrend < 0.001). Furthermore, our decomposition analysis revealed that a substantial proportion (approximately 90%) of the genetic effects on NPC risk could be attributed to host genetic-EBV interaction, while the risk effects mediated by EBV VCA-IgA antibody were weak and statistically insignificant. Our study provides compelling evidence for an interaction between host genetics and EBV VCA-IgA antibody in the development of NPC. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing measures to control EBV infection as a crucial strategy for effectively preventing NPC, particularly in individuals at high genetic risk.

Peptidome-wide association analysis of Epstein-Barr virus identifies epitope repertoires associated with nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) molecules are essential for presenting Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antigens and are closely related to nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This study aims to systematically investigate the association between HLA-bound EBV peptides and NPC risk through in silico HLA-peptide binding prediction. A total of 455 NPC patients and 463 healthy individuals in NPC endemic areas were recruited, and HLA-target sequencing was performed. HLA-peptide binding prediction for EBV, followed by peptidome-wide logistic regression and motif analysis, was applied. Binding affinity changes for EBV peptides carrying high-risk mutations were analyzed. We found that NPC-associated EBV peptides were significantly enriched in immunogenic proteins and core linkage disequilibrium (LD) proteins related to evolution, especially those binding HLA-A alleles (p = 3.10 × 10-4 for immunogenic proteins and p = 8.10 × 10-5 for core LD proteins related to evolution). These peptides were clustered and showed binding motifs of HLA supertypes, among which supertype A02 presented an NPC-risk effect (padj = 3.77 × 10-4 ) and supertype A03 presented an NPC-protective effect (padj = 4.89 × 10-4 ). Moreover, a decreased binding affinity toward risk HLA supertype A02 was observed for the peptide carrying the NPC-risk mutation BNRF1 V1222I (p = 0.0078), and an increased binding affinity toward protective HLA supertype A03 was observed for the peptide carrying the NPC-risk mutation BALF2 I613V (p = 0.022). This study revealed the distinct preference of EBV peptides for binding HLA supertypes, which may contribute to shaping EBV population structure and be involved in NPC development.

High-throughput identification of regulatory elements and functional assays to uncover susceptibility genes for nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Large-scale genetic association studies have identified multiple susceptibility loci for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), but the underlying biological mechanisms remain to be explored. To gain insights into the genetic etiology of NPC, we conducted a follow-up study encompassing 6,907 cases and 10,472 controls and identified two additional NPC susceptibility loci, 9q22.33 (rs1867277; OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.68-0.81, p = 3.08 × 10-11) and 17q12 (rs226241; OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.26-1.60, p = 1.62 × 10-8). The two additional loci, together with two previously reported genome-wide significant loci, 5p15.33 and 9p21.3, were investigated by high-throughput sequencing for chromatin accessibility, histone modification, and promoter capture Hi-C (PCHi-C) profiling. Using luciferase reporter assays and CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) to validate the functional profiling, we identified PHF2 at locus 9q22.33 as a susceptibility gene. PHF2 encodes a histone demethylase and acts as a tumor suppressor. The risk alleles of the functional SNPs reduced the expression of the target gene PHF2 by inhibiting the enhancer activity of its long-range (4.3 Mb) cis-regulatory element, which promoted proliferation of NPC cells. In addition, we identified CDKN2B-AS1 as a susceptibility gene at locus 9p21.3, and the NPC risk allele of the functional SNP rs2069418 promoted the expression of CDKN2B-AS1 by increasing its enhancer activity. The overexpression of CDKN2B-AS1 facilitated proliferation of NPC cells. In summary, we identified functional SNPs and NPC susceptibility genes, which provides additional explanations for the genetic association signals and helps to uncover the underlying genetic etiology of NPC development.

Whole-Exome Sequencing Study of Familial Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma and Its Implication for Identifying High-Risk Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is closely associated with genetic factors and Epstein-Barr virus infection, showing strong familial aggregation. Individuals with a family history suffer elevated NPC risk, requiring effective genetic counseling for risk stratification and individualized prevention. METHODS: We performed whole-exome sequencing on 502 familial NPC patients and 404 unaffected relatives and controls. We systematically evaluated the established cancer predisposition genes and investigated novel NPC susceptibility genes, making comparisons with 21 other familial cancers in the UK biobank (N = 5218). RESULTS: Rare pathogenic mutations in the established cancer predisposition genes were observed in familial NPC patients, including ERCC2 (1.39%), TP63 (1.00%), MUTYH (0.80%), and BRCA1 (0.80%). Additionally, 6 novel susceptibility genes were identified. RAD54L, involved in the DNA repair pathway together with ERCC2, MUTYH, and BRCA1, showed the highest frequency (4.18%) in familial NPC. Enrichment analysis found mutations in TP63 were enriched in familial NPC, and RAD54L and EML2 were enriched in both NPC and other Epstein-Barr virus-associated cancers. Besides rare variants, common variants reported in the studies of sporadic NPC were also associated with familial NPC risk. Individuals in the top quantile of common variant-derived genetic risk score while carrying rare variants exhibited increased NPC risk (odds ratio = 13.47, 95% confidence interval = 6.33 to 28.68, P = 1.48 × 10-11); men in this risk group showed a cumulative lifetime risk of 24.19%, much higher than those in the bottom common variant-derived genetic risk score quantile and without rare variants (2.04%). CONCLUSIONS: This study expands the catalog of NPC susceptibility genes and provides the potential for risk stratification of individuals with an NPC family history.