Factors related to accurate clinicians' prediction of survival: an international multicenter study in East Asia.

PURPOSE: Recent guidelines for prognostic evaluation recommend clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS) for survival prediction in patients with advanced cancer. However, CPS is often inaccurate and optimistic. Studies on factors associated with overestimation or underestimation of CPS are limited. We aimed to investigate the factors associated with the overestimation and underestimation of CPS in patients with far-advanced cancer. METHODS: The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study, which enrolled newly admitted patients with advanced cancer in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 2017 to 2018. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment and performed multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the factors associated with "underestimation (less than 33% of actual survival)" and "overestimation (more than 33% of actual survival)." RESULTS: A total of 2571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. Older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.02; P < 0.01) and reduced oral intake (aOR 0.68; 95% CI 0.51-0.89; P < 0.01) were identified as significant factors associated with underestimation. Dyspnea (aOR 1.28; 95% CI 1.06-1.54; P = 0.01) and hyperactive delirium (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.05-1.72; P = 0.02) were identified as significant factors associated with overestimation. CONCLUSION: Older age was related to underestimation, while dyspnea and hyperactive delirium were related to overestimation of CPS for patients with weeks of survival. However, reduced oral intake was less likely to lead to underestimation.

Pharmacologic Management of End-of-Life Delirium: Translating Evidence into Practice.

End-of-life delirium affects a vast majority of patients before death. It is highly distressing and often associated with restlessness or agitation. Unlike delirium in other settings, it is considered irreversible, and non-pharmacologic measures may be less feasible. The objective of this review is to provide an in-depth discussion of the clinical trials on delirium in the palliative care setting, with a particular focus on studies investigating pharmacologic interventions for end-of-life delirium. To date, only six randomized trials have examined pharmacologic options in palliative care populations, and only two have focused on end-of-life delirium. These studies suggest that neuroleptics and benzodiazepines may be beneficial for the control of the terminal restlessness or agitation associated with end-of-life delirium. However, existing studies have significant methodologic limitations. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and examine novel therapeutic options to manage this distressing syndrome.

Factors Contributing to Non-Concordance Between End-of-Life Care and Advance Care Planning.

CONTEXT: Despite making do-not-resuscitate or comfort care decisions during advance care planning, terminally ill patients sometimes receive life-sustaining treatments as they approach end of life. OBJECTIVES: To examine factors contributing to nonconcordance between end-of-life care and advance care planning. METHODS: In this longitudinal retrospective cohort study, terminally ill patients with a life expectancy shorter than six months, who had previously expressed a preference for do-not-resuscitate or comfort care, were followed up after palliative shared care intervention. An instrument with eight items contributing to non-concordant care, developed through literature review and experts' consensus, was employed. An expert panel reviewed electronic medical records to determine factors associated with non-concordant care for each patient. Statistical analysis, including descriptive statistics and the chi-square test, examines demographic characteristics, and associations. RESULTS: Among the enrolled 7871 patients, 97 (1.2%) received non-concordant care. The most prevalent factor was "families being too distressed about the patient's deteriorating condition and therefore being unable to let go" (84.5%) followed by "limited understanding of medical interventions among patients and surrogates" (38.1%), and "lack of patient participation in the decision-making process" (25.8%). CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that factors related to relational autonomy, emotional support, and health literacy may contribute to non-concordance between advance care planning and end-of-life care. In the future, developing an advance care planning model emphasizes respecting relational autonomy, providing emotional support, and enhancing health literacy could help patients receiving a goal concordant and holistic end-of-life care.

Improved Symptom Change Enhances Quality of Dying in Patients With Advanced Cancer: An East Asian Cross-Cultural Study.

BACKGROUND: Symptom burdens tend to increase for patients with cancer and their families over the disease trajectory. There is still a lack of evidence on the associations between symptom changes and the quality of dying and death. In this context, this research investigated how symptom changes influence the quality of dying and death. METHODS: This international prospective cohort study (the East Asian Collaborative Cross-Cultural Study to Elucidate the Dying Process (EASED), 2017-2019) included 22, 11, and 4 palliative care units across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Eligible participants were adults (Japan and Korea, ≥18 years; Taiwan, ≥20 years) with locally advanced or metastatic cancer. Physical and psychological symptoms were assessed by physicians upon admission and within 3 days before death. Death quality was assessed using the Good Death Scale (GDS), developed in Taiwan. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify correlations between symptom severity changes and GDS scores. RESULTS: Among 998 patients (542 [54.3%] men and 456 [45.7%] women; mean [SD] age = 70.1 [± 12.5] years), persistent dyspnea was associated with lower GDS scores when compared to stable dyspnea (ß = -0.427, 95% CI = -0.783 to -0.071). Worsened (-1.381, -1.932 to -0.831) and persistent (-1.680, -2.701 to -0.659) delirium were also significantly associated with lower GDS scores. CONCLUSIONS: Better quality of dying and death was associated with improved symptom control, especially for dyspnea and delirium. Integrating an outcome measurement for the quality of dying and death is important in the management of symptoms across the disease trajectory in a goal-concordant manner.

How different are accuracies of clinicians' prediction of survival by assessment methods?

BACKGROUND: No standardized method has been established for evaluating the accuracy of a clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS). Till now, no study has compared the accuracy of CPS according to the evaluation methods using the same dataset. We aimed to examine the accuracy of CPS by different statistical approaches in patients with far-advanced cancer. METHODS: The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study. Newly admitted patients with advanced cancer were enrolled in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment. The patients were classified into groups of days (≤7 days) and weeks (≤30 days) based on CPS and actual survival (AS). We evaluated the accuracy of CPS by the distribution, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs), and an estimate ±33% of AS. RESULTS: A total of 2,571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. As for the "days" category, the distribution of AS is larger than that of CPS, however, the results are reversed in the "weeks" category. The AUROCs showed over 80% discrimination for both the "days" and "weeks" categories. Accurate CPS within ±33% of AS was approximately 30% in both "days" and "weeks" categories. CONCLUSIONS: We showed a discrepancy of approximately 30-80% in the accuracy of CPS among three different analysis methods: distribution, AUROC, and AS comparison. Considering the low accuracy of AS comparisons, clinicians should provide a wide range of survival time. CPS was able to effectively discriminate and may be useful for risk stratification.

Shared decision making with Oncologists and Palliative care specialists (SOP) model help advanced pancreatic cancer patients reaching goal concordant care: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is often diagnosed at a late stage with a poor prognosis due to insidious symptoms and lack of evidence-based screening in general population. Palliative care's acceptance in Asian cultures is hindered by misconceptions and ineffective communication about management that improve quality of life other than cancer directed treatment. Our study aimed to determine the effect of the Shared decision-making with Oncologists and Palliative care specialists (SOP) model developed from the traditional shared decision-making (SDM) model on the palliative care acceptance rate and medical resource utilization. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study implementing the SOP model at the National Taiwan University Hospital from January 2018 to December 2019 for patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. Medical resource utilization was defined and recorded as the rate of hospitalization, emergency room (ER), and intensive care unit admissions. We compared the results between two groups: patients who received the SOP model in 2019 and patients who did not receive it in 2018. RESULTS: 137 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer were included in our study. The result showed that the acceptance rate of palliative care significantly increased from 50% to 78.69% after the SOP model (p = 0.01). The hospitalization rate did not show a significant difference between 2018 (93.42%, 95% CI: 0.88-0.99) and 2019 (93.44%, 95% CI: 0.87-1.00). 83.61% (95% CI: 0.74-0.93) of our patients in 2019 had at least one ER visit; the rate was 81.5% (95% CI: 0.73-0.91) in 2018 (p = 0.28). The percentage of patients admitted to the ICU increased from 3.95% in 2018 to 8.2% (95% CI: -0.05-0.08) in 2019 (95% CI: 0.11-0.15) (p = 0.00). The hospitalization and ER visit showed no statistically difference between 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: The modified SOP model markedly augmented palliative care's acceptance of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. Adoption of the SOP model would provide these patients a more proactive and systematic approach to deliver needed healthcare.

Evaluating the Potential of Machine Learning and Wearable Devices in End-of-Life Care in Predicting 7-Day Death Events Among Patients With Terminal Cancer: Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: An accurate prediction of mortality in end-of-life care is crucial but presents challenges. Existing prognostic tools demonstrate moderate performance in predicting survival across various time frames, primarily in in-hospital settings and single-time evaluations. However, these tools may fail to capture the individualized and diverse trajectories of patients. Limited evidence exists regarding the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and wearable devices, specifically among patients with cancer at the end of life. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the potential of using wearable devices and AI to predict death events among patients with cancer at the end of life. Our hypothesis was that continuous monitoring through smartwatches can offer valuable insights into the progression of patients at the end of life and enable the prediction of changes in their condition, which could ultimately enhance personalized care, particularly in outpatient or home care settings. METHODS: This prospective study was conducted at the National Taiwan University Hospital. Patients diagnosed with cancer and receiving end-of-life care were invited to enroll in wards, outpatient clinics, and home-based care settings. Each participant was given a smartwatch to collect physiological data, including steps taken, heart rate, sleep time, and blood oxygen saturation. Clinical assessments were conducted weekly. The participants were followed until the end of life or up to 52 weeks. With these input features, we evaluated the prediction performance of several machine learning-based classifiers and a deep neural network in 7-day death events. We used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), F1-score, accuracy, and specificity as evaluation metrics. A Shapley additive explanations value analysis was performed to further explore the models with good performance. RESULTS: From September 2021 to August 2022, overall, 1657 data points were collected from 40 patients with a median survival time of 34 days, with the detection of 28 death events. Among the proposed models, extreme gradient boost (XGBoost) yielded the best result, with an AUROC of 96%, F1-score of 78.5%, accuracy of 93%, and specificity of 97% on the testing set. The Shapley additive explanations value analysis identified the average heart rate as the most important feature. Other important features included steps taken, appetite, urination status, and clinical care phase. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the successful prediction of patient deaths within the next 7 days using a combination of wearable devices and AI. Our findings highlight the potential of integrating AI and wearable technology into clinical end-of-life care, offering valuable insights and supporting clinical decision-making for personalized patient care. It is important to acknowledge that our study was conducted in a relatively small cohort; thus, further research is needed to validate our approach and assess its impact on clinical care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05054907; https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05054907.

Increasing Trend and Effects of Pediatric Palliative Care on Children With Noncancer Diagnoses.

OBJECTIVES: Pediatric palliative care (PPC), especially among noncancer pediatric patients, faces challenges including late referral, limited patient care, and insufficient data for Asian patients. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used the integrative hospital medical database between 2014 and 2018 to analyze the clinical characteristics, diagnoses, and end-of-life care for patients aged less than 20 who had died in our children's hospital, a tertiary referral medical center implementing PPC shared-care. RESULTS: In our cohort of 323 children, 240 (74.3%) were noncancer patients who a younger median age at death (5 vs. 122 months, P < 0.001), lower rate of PPC involvement (16.7 vs. 66%, P < 0.001), and fewer survival days after PPC consult compared to cancer patients (3 vs. 11, P = 0.01). Patients not receiving PPC had more ventilator support (OR 9.9, P < 0.001), and less morphine use on their final day of life (OR 0.1, P < 0.001). Also, patients not receiving PPC had more cardiopulmonary resuscitation on the last day of life (OR 15.3, P < 0.001) and died in the ICU (OR 8.8, P < 0.001). There was an increasing trend of noncancer patients receiving PPC between 2014 and 2018 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High disparities exist between children receiving PPC in cancer versus noncancer patients. The concept of PPC is gradually becoming accepted in noncancer children and is associated with more pain-relief medication and less suffering during end-of-life care.

Validation of Modified Models of Objective Prognostic Score in Patients With Advanced Cancer.

Background: The objective prognostic score (OPS) needs to be modified to reflect practical palliative care circumstances. Objectives: We aimed to validate modified models of OPS with few or no laboratory tests for patients with advanced cancer. Design: An observational study was performed. Setting/Subjects: A secondary analysis of an international, multicenter cohort study of patients in East Asia was performed. The subjects were inpatients with advanced cancer in the palliative care unit. Measurements: We developed two modified OPS (mOPS) models to predict two-week survival: mOPS-A consisted of two symptoms, two objective signs, and three laboratory results, while mOPS-B consisted of three symptoms, two signs, and no laboratory data. We compared the accuracy of the prognostic models using sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Calibration plots for two-week survival and net reclassification indices (NRIs) were compared for the two models. Survival differences between higher and lower score groups of each model were identified by the log-rank test. Results: We included a total of 1796 subjects having median survival of 19.0 days. We found that mOPS-A had higher specificity (0.805-0.836) and higher AUROCs (0.791-0.797). In contrast, mOPS-B showed higher sensitivity (0.721-0.725) and acceptable AUROCs (0.740-0.751) for prediction of two-week survival. Two mOPSs showed good concordance in calibration plots. Considering NRIs, replacing the original OPS with mOPSs improved overall reclassification (absolute NRI: 0.47-4.15%). Higher score groups of mOPS-A and mOPS-B showed poorer survival than those of lower score groups (p < 0.001). Conclusions: mOPSs used reduced laboratory data and had relatively good accuracy for predicting survival in advanced cancer patients receiving palliative care.

Cross-cultural comparison of continuous deep sedation for advanced cancer patients in East Asian countries: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Cultural, social, and legal factors have been known to affect physicians' practice of continuous deep sedation. There have been few quantitative studies to compare continuous deep sedation practice in Asian countries. We aimed to describe and compare clinical characteristics of continuous deep sedation in Japan, Korea and Taiwan. METHODS: Patients with advanced cancer admitted to participating palliative care units were enrolled from January 2017 to September 2018. We evaluated and compared (i) the prevalence of continuous deep sedation, (ii) the characteristics of sedated and non-sedated groups in each country, and (iii) continuous deep sedation administration patterns among the three countries. RESULTS: A total of 2158 participants were included in our analysis, and 264 received continuous deep sedation. The continuous deep sedation prevalence was 10, 16 and 22% in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, respectively. Delirium was the most frequent target symptom in all countries, along with dyspnoea (in Japan) and psychological symptoms (in Korea). Midazolam was most frequently used in Japan and Taiwan, but not in Korea (P < 0.001). Among the patients receiving continuous deep sedation, the hydration amount on the final day was significantly different, with median volumes of 200, 500 and 0 mL in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, respectively (P < 0.001). In Korea, 33% of the continuous deep sedation administration caused a high degree of physicians' discomfort, but 3% in Japan and 5% in Taiwan (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical practices of continuous deep sedation and physicians' discomfort related to continuous deep sedation initiation highly varied across countries. We need to develop optimal decision-making models of continuous deep sedation and hydration during continuous deep sedation in each country.

Adding a nonpainful end to reduce pain recollection of Pap smear screening: a randomized controlled trial.

ABSTRACT: The pain experienced during Pap tests is a crucial gap in reducing cervical cancer burden. This study sought to investigate whether adding a nonpainful step at the end of Pap tests helps women recall less pain. We conducted a randomized controlled trial on women aged 30 to 70 years at a cervical cancer screening center. A nonpainful step was added at the end of Pap test in the modified Pap group. The outcomes included recalled pain after Pap smear screening, real-time pain, and 1-year willingness to receive further Pap tests. Among 266 subjects in the intention-to-treat analysis, the modified Pap group (n = 133) experienced lower 5-minute recalled pain than the traditional Pap group on a 1 to 5 numeric scale (mean [SD], 1.50 [0.77] vs 2.02 [1.12]; P < 0.001) and a 0 to 10 visual analog scale (2.12 [1.79] vs 3.12 [2.23]; P < 0.001). In exploratory subgroup analyses, the association between the modified Pap test and reduced 5-minute recalled pain was not affected by predicted pain, demographic, or socioeconomic characteristics, but it was more apparent in postmenopausal women. Consistently, the modified Pap test attenuated 1-year recalled pain on both pain scales. Furthermore, the modified Pap test increased 1-year willingness grade to receive further Pap tests (adjusted ß [SE], 2.11 [0.27]; P < 0.001). In conclusion, adding a nonpainful step at the end of Pap smear screening reduces on-site and long-term recalled pain and strengthens willingness to undergo subsequent Pap tests regularly. The modified Pap test contributes to cervical cancer screening participation.

Clinicians' Prediction of Survival and Prognostic Confidence in Patients with Advanced Cancer in Three East Asian Countries.

Background: Little is known about accuracy and confidence of clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS) in East-Asian countries. Objective: We aimed to examine accuracy of CPS for 7-, 21-, and 42-day survival in palliative inpatients and its association with prognostic confidence. Design: An international prospective cohort study in Japan (JP), Korea (KR), and Taiwan (TW). Setting/Subjects: Subjects were inpatients with advanced cancer admitted to 37 palliative care units in three countries. Measurements: Discrimination of CPS was investigated through sensitivity, specificity, overall accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) according to 7-, 21-, and 42-day survival. The accuracies of CPS were compared with those of Performance Status-based Palliative Prognostic Index (PS-PPI). Clinicians were instructed to rate confidence level on a 0-10-point scale. Results: A total of 2571 patients were analyzed. The specificity was highest at 93.2-100.0% for the 7-day CPS, and sensitivity was highest at 71.5-86.8% for the 42-day CPS. The AUROCs of the seven-day CPS were 0.88, 0.94, and 0.89, while those of PS-PPI were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.69 for JP, KR, and TW, respectively. As for 42-day prediction, sensitivities of PS-PPI were higher than those of CPS. Clinicians' confidence was strongly associated with the accuracy of prediction in all three countries (all p-values <0.01). Conclusions: CPS accuracies were highest (0.88-0.94) for the seven-day survival prediction. CPS was more accurate than PS-PPI in all timeframe prediction except 42-day prediction in KR. Prognostic confidence was significantly associated with the accuracy of CPS.

Is spiritual well-being related to survival time of inpatients with advanced cancer? An East Asian cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: It has been suggested that psychosocial factors are related to survival time of inpatients with cancer. However, there are not many studies examining the relationship between spiritual well-being (SWB) and survival time among countries. This study investigated the relationship between SWB and survival time among three East Asian countries. METHODS: This international multicenter cohort study is a secondary analysis involving newly admitted inpatients with advanced cancer in palliative care units in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. SWB was measured using the Integrated Palliative Outcome Scale (IPOS) at admission. We performed multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model to identify independent prognostic factors. RESULTS: A total of 2,638 patients treated at 37 palliative care units from January 2017 to September 2018 were analyzed. The median survival time was 18.0 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.5-19.5) in Japan, 23.0 days (95% CI 19.9-26.1) in Korea, and 15.0 days (95% CI 13.0-17.0) in Taiwan. SWB was a significant factor correlated with survival in Taiwan (hazard ratio [HR] 1.27; 95% CI 1.01-1.59; p = 0.04), while it was insignificant in Japan (HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.00-1.22; p = 0.06), and Korea (HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.77-1.35; p = 0.89). SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: SWB on admission was associated with survival in patients with advanced cancer in Taiwan but not Japan or Korea. The findings suggest the possibility of a positive relationship between spiritual care and survival time in patients with far advanced cancer.

Natural language processing and network analysis in patients withdrawing from life-sustaining treatments: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Providing palliative care to patients who withdraw from life-sustaining treatments is crucial; however, delays or the absence of such services are prevalent. This study used natural language processing and network analysis to identify the role of medications as early palliative care referral triggers. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational study of 119 adult patients receiving specialized palliative care after endotracheal tube withdrawal in intensive care units of a Taiwan-based medical center between July 2016 and June 2018. Patients were categorized into early integration and late referral groups based on the median survival time. Using natural language processing, we analyzed free texts from electronic health records. The Palliative trigger index was also calculated for comparison, and network analysis was performed to determine the co-occurrence of terms between the two groups. RESULTS: Broad-spectrum antibiotics, antifungal agents, diuretics, and opioids had high Palliative trigger index. The most common co-occurrences in the early integration group were micafungin and voriconazole (co-correlation = 0.75). However, in the late referral group, piperacillin and penicillin were the most common co-occurrences (co-correlation = 0.843). CONCLUSION: Treatments for severe infections, chronic illnesses, and analgesics are possible triggers for specialized palliative care consultations. The Palliative trigger index and network analysis indicated the need for palliative care in patients withdrawing from life-sustaining treatments. This study recommends establishing a therapeutic control system based on computerized order entry and integrating it into a shared-decision model.

Perceived Causes of Cancer and Corresponding Behavioral Changes: A Qualitative Study on Breast Cancer Survivors in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVES: Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Taiwan, and treatment and coping with the disease become prominent features in a survivor's life. Here, we examined Taiwanese survivors' perceived causes of breast cancer, the influence of support networks on their perceptions, and the behavioral changes they made to prevent recurrences. METHODS: In this qualitative study, we used an explanatory approach involving semi-structured in-depth interviews based on grounded theory. We recruited (via physician referrals) 29 survivors aged ≥20 who had received their initial diagnosis at least 6 months earlier. RESULTS: Although the participants had made behavioral changes in many areas of their lives after diagnosis, most still believed that "stress and emotions" were the most crucial factor in causing cancer. They strongly emphasized reducing stress levels to prevent recurrences. However, when maintaining healthy behaviors became stressful, they chose to level off healthy lifestyles for the sake of their emotional well-being. They made career changes to improve their quality of life yet continued to experience a deep fear of recurrence. Adopting behavioral changes leading to healthy lifestyles and following regular follow-ups helped to reduce their anxiety concerning recurrence. CONCLUSION: The participants' behavioral changes were strongly associated with the perceived causes of cancer. Health-promotion programs aimed at breast cancer prevention should focus on participants' subjective perception of the cause of cancer.

Comparison of Objective Prognostic Score and Palliative Prognostic Score performance in inpatients with advanced cancer in Japan and Korea.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate prognostication is important for patients and their families to prepare for the end of life. Objective Prognostic Score (OPS) is an easy-to-use tool that does not require the clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS), whereas Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP) needs CPS. Thus, inexperienced clinicians may hesitate to use PaP. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of OPS compared with PaP in inpatients in palliative care units (PCUs) in three East Asian countries. METHOD: This study was a secondary analysis of a cross-cultural, multicenter cohort study. We enrolled inpatients with far-advanced cancer in PCUs in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 2017 to 2018. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve to compare the accuracy of OPS and PaP. RESULTS: A total of 1,628 inpatients in 33 PCUs in Japan and Korea were analyzed. OPS and PaP were calculated in 71.7% of the Japanese patients and 80.0% of the Korean patients. In Taiwan, PaP was calculated for 81.6% of the patients. The AUROC for 3-week survival was 0.74 for OPS in Japan, 0.68 for OPS in Korea, 0.80 for PaP in Japan, and 0.73 for PaP in Korea. The AUROC for 30-day survival was 0.70 for OPS in Japan, 0.71 for OPS in Korea, 0.79 for PaP in Japan, and 0.74 for PaP in Korea. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: Both OPS and PaP showed good performance in Japan and Korea. Compared with PaP, OPS could be more useful for inexperienced physicians who hesitate to estimate CPS.

Factors associated with good death of patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in Japan.

PURPOSE: It is important for palliative care providers to identify what factors are associated with a "good death" for patients with advanced cancer. We aimed to identify factors associated with a "good death" evaluated by the Good Death Scale (GDS) score among inpatients with advanced cancer in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan. METHODS: The study is a sub-analysis of a multicenter prospective cohort study conducted in Japan. All variables were recorded on a structured data collecting sheet designed for the study. We classified each patient into better GDS group or worse GDS group, and examined factors associated with better GDS using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Between January and December 2017, 1896 patients were enrolled across 22 PCUs in Japan. Among them, a total of 1157 patients were evaluated. Five variables were significantly associated with a better GDS score in multivariate analysis: preferred place of death at PCU (odds ratio [OR] 2.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.72-4.71; p < 0.01), longer survival time (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.00-1.03; p < 0.01), not sudden death (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.27-3.04; p < 0.01), better spiritual well-being in the last 3 days in life (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.42-0.68; p < 0.01), and better communication between patient and family (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.66-0.98; p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: We identified factors associated with a "good death" using GDS among advanced cancer patients in Japanese PCUs. Recognition of factors associated with GDS could help to improve the quality of end-of-life care.

Criteria for Referral of Patients With Advanced Heart Failure for Specialized Palliative Care.

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced heart failure have substantial supportive care needs. Specialist palliative care can be beneficial, but it is unclear who is most appropriate for referral and when patients should be referred. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a Delphi study of international experts to identify consensus referral criteria for specialist palliative care for patients with advanced heart failure. METHODS: Clinicians from 5 continents with expertise in the integration of cardiology and palliative care were asked to rate 34 disease-based, 24 needs-based, and 9 time-based criteria over 3 rounds. Consensus was defined a priori as ≥70% agreement. A criterion was coded as major if the experts endorsed that meeting that criterion alone was adequate to justify a referral. RESULTS: The response rate was 44 of 46 (96%), 41 of 46 (89%), and 43 of 46 (93%) in the first, second, and third rounds, respectively. Panelists reached consensus on 25 major criteria for specialist palliative care referral. The 25 major criteria were categorized under 6 topics, including "advanced/refractory heart failure, comorbidities, and complications" (eg, cardiac cachexia, cardiorenal syndrome) (n = 8), "advanced heart failure therapies" (eg, chronic inotropes, precardiac transplant) (n = 4), "hospital utilization" (eg, emergency room visits, hospitalization) (n = 2), "prognostic estimate" (n = 1), "symptom burden/distress" (eg, severe physical/emotional/spiritual distress) (n = 6), and "decision making/social support" (eg, goals-of-care discussions) (n = 4). The majority (68%) of major criteria had ≥90% agreement. CONCLUSIONS: International experts reached consensus on a large number of criteria for referral to specialist palliative care. With further validation, these criteria may be useful for standardizing palliative care access in the inpatient and/or outpatient settings.