Updated estimate of the annual direct medical cost of screening and treatment for human papillomavirus associated disease in the United States.

The annual direct medical cost attributable to human papillomavirus (HPV) in the United States over the period 2004-2007 was estimated at $9.36 billion in 2012 (updated to 2020 dollars). The purpose of this report was to update that estimate to account for the impact of HPV vaccination on HPV-attributable disease, reductions in the frequency of cervical cancer screening, and new data on the cost per case of treating HPV-attributable cancers. Based primarily on data from the literature, we estimated the annual direct medical cost burden as the sum of the costs of cervical cancer screening and follow-up and the cost of treating HPV-attributable cancers, anogenital warts, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP). We estimated the total direct medical cost of HPV to be $9.01 billion annually over the period 2014-2018 (2020 U.S. dollars). Of this total cost, 55.0% was for routine cervical cancer screening and follow-up, 43.8% was for treatment of HPV-attributable cancer, and less than 2% was for treating anogenital warts and RRP. Although our updated estimate of the direct medical cost of HPV is slightly lower than the previous estimate, it would have been substantially lower had we not incorporated more recent, higher cancer treatment costs.

Costs, Health Benefits, and Cost-Effectiveness of Chlamydia Screening and Partner Notification in the United States, 2000-2019: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia remains a significant public health problem that contributes to adverse reproductive health outcomes. In the United States, sexually active women 24 years and younger are recommended to receive annual screening for chlamydia. In this study, we evaluated the impact of estimated current levels of screening and partner notification (PN), and the impact of screening based on guidelines on chlamydia associated sequelae, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and costs. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of chlamydia screening, using a published calibrated pair formation transmission model that estimated trends in chlamydia screening coverage in the United States from 2000 to 2015 consistent with epidemiological data. We used probability trees to translate chlamydial infection outcomes into estimated numbers of chlamydia-associated sequelae, QALYs lost, and health care services costs (in 2020 US dollars). We evaluated the costs and population health benefits of screening and PN in the United States for 2000 to 2015, as compared with no screening and no PN. We also estimated the additional benefits that could be achieved by increasing screening coverage to the levels indicated by the policy recommendations for 2016 to 2019, compared with screening coverage achieved by 2015. RESULTS: Screening and PN from 2000 to 2015 were estimated to have averted 1.3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 490,000-2.3 million) cases of pelvic inflammatory disease, 430,000 (95% UI, 160,000-760,000) cases of chronic pelvic pain, 300,000 (95% UI, 104,000-570,000) cases of tubal factor infertility, and 140,000 (95% UI, 47,000-260,000) cases of ectopic pregnancy in women. We estimated that chlamydia screening and PN cost $9700 per QALY gained compared with no screening and no PN. We estimated the full realization of chlamydia screening guidelines for 2016 to 2019 to cost $30,000 per QALY gained, compared with a scenario in which chlamydia screening coverage was maintained at 2015 levels. DISCUSSION: Chlamydia screening and PN as implemented in the United States from 2000 through 2015 has substantially improved population health and provided good value for money when considering associated health care services costs. Further population health gains are attainable by increasing screening further, at reasonable cost per QALY gained.

Health Economics Research in Primary Prevention of Cancer: Assessment, Current Challenges, and Future Directions.

In the past 2 decades, the demand for information on health economics research to guide health care decision making has substantially increased. Studies have provided evidence that eliminating or reducing tobacco use; eating a healthy diet, including fruit and vegetables; being physically active; reducing alcohol consumption; avoiding ultraviolet radiation; and minimizing exposure to environmental and occupational carcinogenic agents should substantially reduce cancer incidence in the population. The benefits of these primary prevention measures in reducing cancer incidence are not instantaneous. Therefore, health economics research has an important role to play in providing credible information to decision makers on the health and economic benefits of primary prevention. This article provides an overview of health economics research related to primary prevention of cancer. We addressed the following questions: 1) What are the gaps and unmet needs for performing health economics research focused on primary prevention of cancer? 2) What are the challenges and opportunities to conducting health economics research to evaluate primary prevention of cancer? and 3) What are the future directions for enhancing health economics research on primary prevention of cancer? Modeling primary prevention of cancer is often difficult given data limitations, long delays before the policy or intervention is effective, possible unintended effects of the policy or intervention, and the necessity of outside expertise to understand key inputs or outputs to the modeling. Despite these challenges, health economics research has an important role to play in providing credible information to decision makers on the health and economic benefits of primary prevention of cancer.

Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Express Multisite Gonorrhea Screening Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) experience high rates of gonococcal infection at extragenital (rectal and pharyngeal) anatomic sites, which often are missed without asymptomatic screening and may be important for onward transmission. Implementing an express pathway for asymptomatic MSM seeking routine screening at their clinic may be a cost-effective way to improve extragenital screening by allowing patients to be screened at more anatomic sites through a streamlined, less costly process. METHODS: We modified an agent-based model of anatomic site-specific gonococcal infection in US MSM to assess the cost-effectiveness of an express screening pathway in which all asymptomatic MSM presenting at their clinic were screened at the urogenital, rectal, and pharyngeal sites but forewent a provider consultation and physical examination and self-collected their own samples. We calculated the cumulative health effects expressed as gonococcal infections and cases averted over 5 years, labor and material costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for express versus traditional scenarios. RESULTS: The express scenario averted more infections and cases in each intervention year. The increased diagnostic costs of triple-site screening were largely offset by the lowered visit costs of the express pathway and, from the end of year 3 onward, this pathway generated small cost savings. However, in a sensitivity analysis of assumed overhead costs, cost savings under the express scenario disappeared in the majority of simulations once overhead costs exceeded 7% of total annual costs. CONCLUSIONS: Express screening may be a cost-effective option for improving multisite anatomic screening among US MSM.

The Estimated Direct Lifetime Medical Costs of Sexually Transmitted Infections Acquired in the United States in 2018.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the lifetime medical costs attributable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) acquired in 2018, including sexually acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS: We estimated the lifetime medical costs of infections acquired in 2018 in the United States for 8 STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, syphilis, genital herpes, human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis B, and HIV. We limited our analysis to lifetime medical costs incurred for treatment of STIs and for treatment of related sequelae; we did not include other costs, such as STI prevention. For each STI, except HPV, we calculated the lifetime medical cost by multiplying the estimated number of incident infections in 2018 by the estimated lifetime cost per infection. For HPV, we calculated the lifetime cost based on the projected lifetime incidence of health outcomes attributed to HPV infections acquired in 2018. Future costs were discounted at 3% annually. RESULTS: Incident STIs in 2018 imposed an estimated $15.9 billion (25th-75th percentile: $14.9-16.9 billion) in discounted, lifetime direct medical costs (2019 US dollars). Most of this cost was due to sexually acquired HIV ($13.7 billion) and HPV ($0.8 billion). STIs in women accounted for about one fourth of the cost of incident STIs when including HIV, but about three fourths when excluding HIV. STIs among 15- to 24-year-olds accounted for $4.2 billion (26%) of the cost of incident STIs. CONCLUSIONS: Incident STIs continue to impose a considerable lifetime medical cost burden in the United States. These results can inform health economic analyses to promote the use of cost-effective STI prevention interventions to reduce this burden.

Estimated Prevalence and Incidence of Disease-Associated Human Papillomavirus Types Among 15- to 59-Year-Olds in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Human papillomavirus (HPV) can cause anogenital warts and several types of cancer, including cervical cancers and precancers. We estimated the prevalence, incidence, and number of persons with prevalent and incident HPV infections in the United States in 2018. METHODS: Prevalence and incidence were estimated for infections with any HPV (any of 37 types detected using Linear Array) and disease-associated HPV, 2 types that cause anogenital warts plus 14 types detected by tests used for cervical cancer screening (HPV 6/11/16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59/66/68). We used the 2013-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to estimate prevalence among 15- to 59-year-olds, overall and by sex. Incidences in 2018 were estimated per 10,000 persons using an individual-based transmission-dynamic type-specific model calibrated to US data. We estimated number of infected persons by applying prevalences and incidences to 2018 US population estimates. RESULTS: Prevalence of infection with any HPV was 40.0% overall, 41.8% in men, and 38.4% in women; prevalence of infection with disease-associated HPV was 24.2% in men and 19.9% in women. An estimated 23.4 and 19.2 million men and women had a disease-associated HPV type infection in 2018. Incidences of any and disease-associated HPV infection were 1222 and 672 per 10,000 persons; incidence of disease-associated HPV infection was 708 per 10,000 men and 636 per 10,000 women. An estimated 6.9 and 6.1 million men and women had an incident infection with a disease-associated HPV type in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: We document a high HPV burden of infection in the United States in 2018, with 42 million persons infected with disease-associated HPV and 13 million persons acquiring a new infection. Although most infections clear, some disease-associated HPV type infections progress to disease. The HPV burden highlights the need for continued monitoring of HPV-associated cancers, cervical cancer screening, and HPV vaccination to track and prevent disease.

The Estimated Lifetime Medical Cost of Diseases Attributable to Human Papillomavirus Infections Acquired in 2018.

INTRODUCTION: We estimated the lifetime medical costs of diagnosed cases of diseases attributable to human papillomavirus (HPV) infections acquired in 2018. METHODS: We adapted an existing mathematical model of HPV transmission and associated diseases to estimate the lifetime number of diagnosed cases of disease (genital warts; cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; and cervical, vaginal, vulvar, penile, anal, and oropharyngeal cancers) attributable to HPV infections that were acquired in 2018. For each of these outcomes, we multiplied the estimated number of cases by the estimated lifetime medical cost per case obtained from previous studies. We estimated the costs of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis in a separate calculation. Future costs were discounted at 3% annually. RESULTS: The estimated discounted lifetime medical cost of diseases attributable to HPV infections acquired in 2018 among people aged 15 to 59 years was $774 million (in 2019 US dollars), of which approximately half was accounted for by infections in those aged 15 to 24 years. Human papillomavirus infections in women accounted for approximately 90% of the lifetime number of diagnosed cases of disease and 70% of the lifetime cost attributable to HPV infections acquired in 2018 among those aged 15 to 59 years. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated the lifetime medical costs of diseases attributable to HPV infections acquired in 2018 to be $774 million. This estimate is lower than previous estimates, likely due to the impact of HPV vaccination. The lifetime cost of disease attributable to incident HPV infections is expected to decrease further over time as HPV vaccination coverage increases.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for adults through age 45 years in the United States: Estimates from a simplified transmission model.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to assess incremental costs and benefits of a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program expanded to include "mid-adults" (adults aged 27 through 45 years) in the United States. METHODS: We adapted a previously published, dynamic mathematical model of HPV transmission and HPV-associated disease to estimate the incremental costs and benefits of a 9-valent HPV vaccine (9vHPV) program for people aged 12 through 45 years compared to a 9vHPV program for females aged 12 through 26 years and males aged 12 through 21 years. RESULTS: A 9vHPV program for females aged 12 through 26 years and males aged 12 through 21 years was estimated to cost < $10,000 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, compared to no vaccination. Expanding the 9vHPV program to include mid-adults was estimated to cost $587,600 per additional QALY gained when including adults through age 30 years, and $653,300 per additional QALY gained when including adults through age 45 years. Results were most sensitive to assumptions about HPV incidence among mid-adults, current and historical vaccination coverage, vaccine price, and the impact of HPV diseases on quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Mid-adult vaccination is much less cost-effective than the comparison strategy of routine vaccination for all adolescents at ages 11 to 12 years and catch-up vaccination for women through age 26 years and men through age 21 years.

Potential for Point-of-Care Tests to Reduce Chlamydia-associated Burden in the United States: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care testing (POCT) assays for chlamydia are being developed. Their potential impact on the burden of chlamydial infection in the United States, in light of suboptimal screening coverage, remains unclear. METHODS: Using a transmission model calibrated to data in the United States, we estimated the impact of POCT on chlamydia prevalence, incidence, and chlamydia-attributable pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) incidence, assuming status quo (Analysis 1) and improved (Analysis 2) screening frequencies. We tested the robustness of results to changes in POCT sensitivity, the proportion of patients getting treated immediately, the baseline proportion lost to follow-up (LTFU), and the average treatment delay. RESULTS: In Analysis 1, high POCT sensitivity was needed to reduce the chlamydia-associated burden. With a POCT sensitivity of 90%, reductions from the baseline burden only occurred in scenarios in which over 60% of the screened individuals would get immediate treatment and the baseline LTFU proportion was 20%. With a POCT sensitivity of 99% (baseline LTFU 10%, 2-week treatment delay), if everyone were treated immediately, the prevalence reduction was estimated at 5.7% (95% credible interval [CrI] 3.9-8.2%). If only 30% of tested persons would wait for results, the prevalence reduction was only 1.6% (95% CrI 1.1-2.3). POCT with 99% sensitivity could avert up to 12 700 (95% CrI 5000-22 200) PID cases per year, if 100% were treated immediately (baseline LTFU 20% and 3-week treatment delay). In Analysis 2, when POCT was coupled with increasing screening coverage, reductions in the chlamydia burden could be realized with a POCT sensitivity of 90%. CONCLUSIONS: POCT could improve chlamydia prevention efforts if test performance characteristics are significantly improved over currently available options.

HPV vaccine status and sexual behavior among young sexually-active women in the US: evidence from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2014.

Concern has been expressed that human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs might promote risky sexual behavior through mechanisms such as risk compensation, behavioral disinhibition, or perceived endorsement of sexual activity. This study assesses whether HPV vaccination status is associated with any differences in selected sexual behaviors among young sexually-active women in the US. Our dataset includes young, adult female respondents from questionnaire data collected in the National Center for Health Statistics' National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2007 to 2014. The empirical approach implements a doubly robust estimation procedure, based on inverse probability of treatment weighting. For robustness, we implement several specifications for the propensity model and the outcomes model. We find no consistent association between HPV vaccination and condom usage or frequency of sex. Specifically, we find no evidence that HPV vaccination is associated with condom usage or with whether a person had sex more than 52 or more than 104 times per year. We find inconsistent evidence that HPV vaccination is associated with a person having sex more than 12 times per year. As in previous research, HPV vaccination does not appear to have a substantive effect on sexual behavior among young sexually-active women in the US.

Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Through Age 45 Years in the United States.

Background: In the United States, the routine age for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is 11 to 12 years, with catch-up vaccination through age 26 years for women and 21 years for men. U.S. vaccination policy on use of the 9-valent HPV vaccine in adult women and men is being reviewed. Objective: To evaluate the added population-level effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of extending the current U.S. HPV vaccination program to women aged 27 to 45 years and men aged 22 to 45 years. Design: The analysis used HPV-ADVISE (Agent-based Dynamic model for VaccInation and Screening Evaluation), an individual-based transmission dynamic model of HPV infection and associated diseases, calibrated to age-specific U.S. data. Data Sources: Published data. Target Population: Women aged 27 to 45 years and men aged 22 to 45 years in the United States. Time Horizon: 100 years. Perspective: Health care sector. Intervention: 9-valent HPV vaccination. Outcome Measures: HPV-associated outcomes prevented and cost-effectiveness ratios. Results of Base-Case Analysis: The model predicts that the current U.S. HPV vaccination program will reduce the number of diagnoses of anogenital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or 3 and cases of cervical cancer and noncervical HPV-associated cancer by 82%, 80%, 59%, and 39%, respectively, over 100 years and is cost saving (vs. no vaccination). In contrast, extending vaccination to women and men aged 45 years is predicted to reduce these outcomes by an additional 0.4, 0.4, 0.2, and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. Vaccinating women and men up to age 30, 40, and 45 years is predicted to cost $830 000, $1 843 000, and $1 471 000, respectively, per quality-adjusted life-year gained (vs. current vaccination). Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results were most sensitive to assumptions about natural immunity and progression rates after infection, historical vaccination coverage, and vaccine efficacy. Limitation: Uncertainty about the proportion of HPV-associated disease due to infections after age 26 years and about the level of herd effects from the current HPV vaccination program. Conclusion: The current HPV vaccination program is predicted to be cost saving. Extending vaccination to older ages is predicted to produce small additional health benefits and result in substantially higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios than the current recommendation. Primary Funding Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Potential Population-Level Impact of Different Gonorrhea Screening Strategies in Baltimore and San Francisco: An Exploratory Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Baltimore and San Francisco represent high burden areas for gonorrhea in the United States. We explored different gonorrhea screening strategies and their comparative impact in the 2 cities. METHODS: We used a compartmental transmission model of gonorrhea stratified by sex, sexual orientation, age, and race/ethnicity, calibrated to city-level surveillance data for 2010 to 2017. We analyzed the benefits of 5-year interventions which improved retention in care cascade or increased screening from current levels. We also examined a 1-year outreach screening intervention of high-activity populations. RESULTS: In Baltimore, annual screening of population aged 15 to 24 years was the most efficient of the 5-year interventions with 17.9 additional screening tests (95% credible interval [CrI], 11.8-31.4) needed per infection averted while twice annual screening of the same population averted the most infections (5.4%; 95% CrI, 3.1-8.2%) overall with 25.3 (95% CrI, 19.4-33.4) tests per infection averted. In San Francisco, quarter-annual screening of all men who have sex with men was the most efficient with 16.2 additional (95% CrI, 12.5-44.5) tests needed per infection averted, and it also averted the most infections (10.8%; 95% CrI, 1.2-17.8%). Interventions that reduce loss to follow-up after diagnosis improved outcomes. Depending on the ability of a short-term outreach screening to screen populations at higher acquisition risk, such interventions can offer efficient ways to expand screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Data on gonorrhea prevalence distribution and time trends locally would improve the analyses. More focused intervention strategies could increase the impact and efficiency of screening interventions.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccination for Adults: Updated Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.

Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is recommended to prevent new HPV infections and HPV-associated diseases, including some cancers. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)* routinely recommends HPV vaccination at age 11 or 12 years; vaccination can be given starting at age 9 years. Catch-up vaccination has been recommended since 2006 for females through age 26 years, and since 2011 for males through age 21 years and certain special populations through age 26 years. This report updates ACIP catch-up HPV vaccination recommendations and guidance published in 2014, 2015, and 2016 (1-3). Routine recommendations for vaccination of adolescents have not changed. In June 2019, ACIP recommended catch-up HPV vaccination for all persons through age 26 years. ACIP did not recommend catch-up vaccination for all adults aged 27 through 45 years, but recognized that some persons who are not adequately vaccinated might be at risk for new HPV infection and might benefit from vaccination in this age range; therefore, ACIP recommended shared clinical decision-making regarding potential HPV vaccination for these persons.

Updated medical care cost estimates for HPV-associated cancers: implications for cost-effectiveness analyses of HPV vaccination in the United States.

Estimates of medical care costs for cervical and other cancers associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) are higher in studies published in recent years than in studies published before 2012. The purpose of this report is (1) to review and summarize the recent cancer cost estimates and (2) to illustrate how the estimated cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination might change when these recent cost estimates are applied. Our literature search yielded 6 studies that provided updated medical care cost estimates for 5 HPV-associated cancers. We found that applying the current cancer cost estimates had a notable impact on the estimated medical costs averted by HPV vaccination over an extended time frame (100 years), and a moderate impact on the estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by HPV vaccination. For example, for catch-up vaccination of teenagers and young adults, applying the more recent cancer costs reduced the estimated cost per QALY gained by about $12,400. The cost studies we identified in our literature review are up-to-date and based on reliable data sources from United States settings, and can inform future studies of HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness in the United States. However, careful consideration is warranted to determine the most appropriate cost values to apply.

The Impact of Screening and Partner Notification on Chlamydia Prevalence and Numbers of Infections Averted in the United States, 2000-2015: Evaluation of Epidemiologic Trends Using a Pair-Formation Transmission Model.

Population-level effects of control strategies on the dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis transmission are difficult to quantify. In this study, we calibrated a novel sex- and age-stratified pair-formation transmission model of chlamydial infection to epidemiologic data in the United States for 2000-2015. We used sex- and age-specific prevalence estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, case report data from national chlamydia surveillance, and survey data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey on the proportion of the sexually active population aged 15-18 years. We were able to reconcile national prevalence estimates and case report data by allowing for changes over time in screening coverage and reporting completeness. In retrospective analysis, chlamydia prevalence was estimated to be almost twice the current levels in the absence of screening and partner notification. Although chlamydia screening and partner notification were both found to reduce chlamydia burden, the relative magnitude of their estimated impacts varied in our sensitivity analyses. The variation in the model predictions highlights the need for further data collection and research to improve our understanding of the natural history of chlamydia and the pathways through which prevention strategies affect transmission dynamics.

Review of mathematical models of HSV-2 vaccination: Implications for vaccine development.

Development of a vaccine against herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), a life-long sexually-transmitted infection (STI), would be a major step forward in improving global sexual and reproductive health. In this review, we identified published literature of dynamic mathematical models assessing the impact of either prophylactic or therapeutic HSV-2 vaccination at the population level. We compared each study's model structure and assumptions as well as predicted vaccination impact. We examined possible causes of heterogeneity across model predictions, key gaps, and the implications of these findings for future modelling efforts. Only eight modelling studies have assessed the potential public health impact of HSV-2 vaccination, with the majority focusing on impact of prophylactic vaccines. The studies showed that even an imperfect prophylactic HSV-2 vaccine could have an important public health impact on HSV-2 incidence, and could also impact HIV indirectly in high HIV prevalence settings. Therapeutic vaccines also may provide public health benefits, though they have been explored less extensively. However, there was substantial variation in predicted population-level impact for both types of vaccine, reflecting differences in assumptions between model scenarios. Importantly, many models did not account for heterogeneity in infection rates such as by age, sex and sexual activity. Future modelling work to inform decisions on HSV vaccine development and implementation should consider cost-effectiveness, account for additional HSV-2 sequelae such as neonatal transmission, and model greater heterogeneity in infection rates between individuals, more realistic vaccine deployment, and more thorough sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.

Cost-effectiveness of adult vaccinations: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Coverage levels for many recommended adult vaccinations are low. The cost-effectiveness research literature on adult vaccinations has not been synthesized in recent years, which may contribute to low awareness of the value of adult vaccinations and to their under-utilization. We assessed research literature since 1980 to summarize economic evidence for adult vaccinations included on the adult immunization schedule. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, EconLit, and Cochrane Library from 1980 to 2016 and identified economic evaluation or cost-effectiveness analysis for vaccinations targeting persons aged ≥18 years in the U.S. or Canada. After excluding records based on title and abstract reviews, the remaining publications had a full-text review from two independent reviewers, who extracted economic values that compared vaccination to "no vaccination" scenarios. RESULTS: The systematic searches yielded 1688 publications. After removing duplicates, off-topic publications, and publications without a "no vaccination" comparison, 78 publications were included in the final analysis (influenza = 25, pneumococcal = 18, human papillomavirus = 9, herpes zoster = 7, tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis = 9, hepatitis B = 9, and multiple vaccines = 1). Among outcomes assessing age-based vaccinations, the percent indicating cost-savings was 56% for influenza, 31% for pneumococcal, and 23% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations. Among age-based vaccination outcomes reporting $/QALY, the percent of outcomes indicating a cost per QALY of ≤$100,000 was 100% for influenza, 100% for pneumococcal, 69% for human papillomavirus, 71% for herpes zoster, and 50% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of published studies report favorable cost-effectiveness profiles for adult vaccinations, which supports efforts to improve the implementation of adult vaccination recommendations.

Estimated Impact of Screening on Gonorrhea Epidemiology in the United States: Insights From a Mathematical Model.

The burden of gonorrhea infections in the United States is high. There are marked disparities by race/ethnicity and sexual orientation. We quantified the impact of screening and treatment on gonorrhea rates in the US population aged 15 to 39 years for the period 2000 to 2015 and estimated the impact that alternative screening strategies might have had over the same period. METHODS: We developed a national-level transmission model that divides the population by race/ethnicity, preferred gender of sex partners, age, gender, and sexual activity level. We compared our fitted model ("base case") to 4 alternative strategies: (i) no screening, (ii) full adherence to current screening guidelines, (iii) annual universal screening, or (iv) enhanced screening in groups with the highest infection burden. Main outcomes were incidence, infections averted, and incidence rate ratios by race/ethnicity. Mean values and 95% credible intervals were calculated from 1000 draws from parameter posterior distributions. RESULTS: The calibrated model reproduced observed trends in gonorrhea, including disparities in infection burden by race/ethnicity. We estimated that screening for gonorrhea from 2000 to 2015 averted 30% (95% credible intervals, 18-44%) of total infections that would otherwise have occurred. All alternative active screening strategies were estimated to further reduce, but not eliminate, gonorrhea infections relative to the base case, with differential impacts on the subpopulations of interest. CONCLUSIONS: Our model results suggest that screening has reduced gonorrhea incidence in the US population. Additional reductions in infection burden may have been possible over this period with increased screening, but elimination was unlikely.

Cost-effectiveness of nonavalent HPV vaccination among males aged 22 through 26 years in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: In the United States, routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is recommended for females and males at age 11 or 12 years; the series can be started at age 9 years. Vaccination is also recommended for females through age 26 years and males through age 21 years. The objective of this study was to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of harmonizing female and male vaccination recommendations by increasing the upper recommended catch-up age of HPV vaccination for males from age 21 to age 26 years. METHODS: We updated a published model of the health impact and cost-effectiveness of 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine (9vHPV). We examined the cost-effectiveness of (1) 9vHPV for females aged 12 through 26 years and males aged 12 through 21 years, and (2) an expanded program including males through age 26 years. RESULTS: Compared to no vaccination, providing 9vHPV for females aged 12 through 26 years and males aged 12 through 21 years cost an estimated $16,600 (in 2016 U.S. dollars) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The estimated cost per QALY gained by expanding male vaccination through age 26 years was $228,800 and ranged from $137,900 to $367,300 in multi-way sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness ratios we estimated are not so favorable as to make a strong economic case for recommending expanding male vaccination, yet are not so unfavorable as to preclude consideration of expanding male vaccination. The wide range of plausible results we obtained may underestimate the true degree of uncertainty, due to model limitations. For example, the cost per QALY might be less than our lower bound estimate of $137,900 had our model allowed for vaccine protection against re-infection. Models that specifically incorporate men who have sex with men (MSM) are needed to provide a more comprehensive assessment of male HPV vaccination strategies.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Syphilis Screening Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: An Exploratory Modeling Analysis.

We adapted a published model to estimate the costs and benefits of screening men who have sex with men for syphilis, including the benefits of preventing syphilis-attributable human immunodeficiency virus. The cost per quality-adjusted life year gained by screening was