Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of cervical screening in the context of routine HPV vaccination by optimizing screening strategies with respect to vaccine uptake: a modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Regarding primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention, the World Health Organization proposed the cervical cancer elimination strategy that requires countries to achieve 90% uptake of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and 70% screening uptake. The optimal cervical screening strategy is likely different for unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts upon national HPV immunization. However, health authorities typically only provide a one-size-fits-all recommendation for the general population. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness for determining the optimal screening strategies for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. METHODS: We considered the women population in Hong Kong which has a unique HPV infection and cervical cancer epidemiology compared to other regions in China and Asia. We used mathematical models which comprise a deterministic age-structured compartmental dynamic component and a stochastic individual-based cohort component to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies for cervical screening. Following the recommendations in local guidelines in Hong Kong, we considered strategies that involved cytology, HPV testing, or co-testing as primary cervical screening. We also explored the impacts of adopting alternative de-intensified strategies for vaccinated cohorts. The 3-year cytology screening was used as the base comparator while no screening was also considered for vaccinated cohorts. Women's lifetime life years, quality-adjusted life years, and costs of screening and treatment were estimated from the societal perspective based on the year 2022 and were discounted by 3% annually. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of one gross domestic product per capita (US $47,792). Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Among unvaccinated cohorts, the strategy that adds reflex HPV to triage mild cytology abnormality generated more life years saved than cytology-only screening and could be a cost-effective alternative. Among vaccinated cohorts, when vaccine uptake was 85% (based on the uptake in 2022), all guideline-based strategies (including the cytology-only screening) had ICERs above the WTP threshold when compared with no screening if the vaccine-induced protection duration was 20 years or longer. Under the same conditions, HPV testing with genotyping triage had ICERs (compared with no screening) below the WTP threshold if the routine screening interval was lengthened to 10 and 15 years or screening was initiated at ages 30 and 35 years. CONCLUSIONS: HPV testing is a cost-effective alternative to cytology for vaccinated cohorts, and the associated optimal screening frequency depends on vaccine uptake. Health authorities should optimize screening recommendations by accounting for population vaccine uptake.

A comprehensive systematic review and network meta-analysis: the role of anti-angiogenic agents in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer.

The efficacy of anti-angiogenic agents (AAAs) in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) remains unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) to synthesize evidence of their comparative effectiveness for improving overall survival (OS) among EOC patients. We searched six databases for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from their inception to February 2021. We performed an NMA with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95%-confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate comparative effectiveness among different AAAs in chemotherapy-naïve and recurrent EOC. P-score was used to provide an effectiveness hierarchy ranking. Sensitivity NMA was carried out by focusing on studies that reported high-risk chemotherapy-naïve, platinum-resistant, and platinum-sensitive EOC. The primary outcome was OS. We identified 23 RCTs that assessed the effectiveness of AAAs. In recurrent EOC, concurrent use of trebananib (10 mg/kg) with chemotherapy was likely to be the best option (P-score: 0.88, HR 1.67, 95% CI 0.94; 2.94). The NMA indicated that bevacizumab plus chemotherapy followed by maintenance bevacizumab (P-score: 0.99) and pazopanib combined with chemotherapy (P-score: 0.79) both had the highest probability of being the best intervention for improving OS in high-risk chemotherapy-naïve and platinum-resistant EOC, respectively. AAAs may not play a significant clinical role in non-high-risk chemotherapy-naïve and platinum-sensitive EOC.

Application of Artificial Intelligence for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Management - A Systematic Review.

INTRODUCTION: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is endemic to Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and, in 2020, 77% of global cases were diagnosed in these regions. Apart from its distinct epidemiology, the natural behavior, treatment, and prognosis are different from other head and neck cancers. With the growing trend of artificial intelligence (AI), especially deep learning (DL), in head and neck cancer care, we sought to explore the unique clinical application and implementation direction of AI in the management of NPC. METHODS: The search protocol was performed to collect publications using AI, machine learning (ML) and DL in NPC management from PubMed, Scopus and Embase. The articles were filtered using inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the quality of the papers was assessed. Data were extracted from the finalized articles. RESULTS: A total of 78 articles were reviewed after removing duplicates and papers that did not meet the inclusion and exclusion criteria. After quality assessment, 60 papers were included in the current study. There were four main types of applications, which were auto-contouring, diagnosis, prognosis, and miscellaneous applications (especially on radiotherapy planning). The different forms of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) accounted for the majority of DL algorithms used, while the artificial neural network (ANN) was the most frequent ML model implemented. CONCLUSION: There is an overall positive impact identified from AI implementation in the management of NPC. With improving AI algorithms, we envisage AI will be available as a routine application in a clinical setting soon.

Can Radiation Therapy Quality Assurance Improve Nasopharyngeal Cancer Outcomes in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Reporting the First Phase of a Prospective International Atomic Energy Agency Study.

PURPOSE: Most new nasopharyngeal cancer cases occur in low-income and middle-income countries, and these patients experience poorer overall survival than that of new nasopharyngeal cancer cases in high-income countries. The goal of this research project is to determine whether the introduction of a radiation therapy quality assurance program can ultimately improve outcomes for nasopharyngeal cancer patients in lower-income and middle-income countries. This study reports the results of the first phase of the International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project (325-E3-TM-47712). METHODS AND MATERIALS: This prospective study has 2 phases. Phase 1 is a survey of radiation therapy resources, patient characteristics and treatment, and results of radiation therapy quality assurance performed by the expert panel. An educational workshop reviewing phase 1 results for each center was completed before accrual of patients for phase 2. The ultimate aim of the study is to compare the first and second cohort of patients to see if quality assurance can result in fewer major protocol deviations and a 15% improvement in patients' 3-year progression-free survival. RESULTS: Of 14 participating centers, 13 (93%) had computed tomography simulators and linear accelerators (LINAC) with intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) capacity, median 3 LINAC (range, 1-13), and median 10 radiation oncologists (range, 5-51). The annual number of nasopharyngeal cancer cases irradiated was median 54 (range, 10-627). Five of 14 centers (36%) had no local radiation therapy quality assurance. For the current phase 1 study, 134 patients were evaluated, 82.1% had MRI staging, 99.3% had metastatic workup, 65.6% undifferentiated histology, 51% stage 3 and 49% stage 4. Radiation therapy quality assurance revealed 81 (60.4%) of 134 patients had major protocol violations in gross tumor volume and high dose planning target volume contours and/or dosimetry, 28.4% patients had borderline plans, 15 (11.2%) acceptable, and only 6 (4.2%) had inevitable compromise due to tumor extent. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first International Atomic Energy Agency study to address the fundamental issue of treatment quality rather than altered treatment regimens. The high rate of unacceptable radiation therapy plans is a major concern, and we hope phase 2 will show a significant reduction and improved patient outcomes.

Cost-Effectiveness of Anti-Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Therapy Versus Bevacizumab in KRAS Wild-Type (WT), Pan-RAS WT, and Pan-RAS WT Left-Sided Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to compare the economic value of chemotherapy plus anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (anti-EGFR) monoclonal antibody (mAb) against chemotherapy with bevacizumab (Bev, an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor mAb) as first-line treatment in KRAS wild-type (WT), pan-RAS WT and pan-RAS WT left-sided metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients from the Hong Kong societal perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed Markov models and 10-year horizon to estimate costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of chemotherapy plus anti-EGFR therapy against chemotherapy plus Bev in KRAS WT, pan-RAS WT, and pan-RAS WT left-sided mCRC. We considered two times of the local gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (2× GDPpc; US$97,832). RESULTS: Adding anti-EGFR mAb to chemotherapy provides additional 0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.19-0.29), 0.32 (95% CI 0.27-0.37), and 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.63) QALY compared to adding Bev in KRAS WT, pan-RAS WT, and left-sided pan-RAS WT mCRC populations respectively. The corresponding ICER is US$106,847 (95% CI 87,806-134,523), US$88,565 (95% CI 75,678-105,871), US$76,537 (95% CI 67,794-87,917) per QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-EGFR therapy is more cost-effective than Bev as a first-line targeted therapy in left-sided pan-RAS WT and pan-RAS WT, with ICER

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been shown to extend protection against oncogenic HPV types 31/33/45/52/58 (HPV-OV) not covered by the bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines. Besides its clinical benefit, evidence on the economic value of the nonavalent vaccine is required to inform local vaccination strategies and funding decisions. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of replacing the bivalent vaccine with the nonavalent vaccine in the national school-based HPV vaccination programme in Singapore. METHODS: An existing age-structured dynamic transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations was adapted to project the health and economic impact of vaccinating 13-year-old girls with two doses of the nonavalent or bivalent HPV vaccines in Singapore. Direct costs (in Singapore dollars, S$) were obtained from public healthcare institutions in Singapore, while health state utilities were sourced from the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon, from a healthcare system perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to obtain the ICERs and corresponding variations across variable uncertainty. Particularly, this study tested the scenarios of lifelong and 20-year vaccine-induced protection, assumed 96.0% and 22.3% cross-protection against HPV-OV by nonavalent and bivalent vaccines respectively, and fixed vaccine prices per dose at S$188 for nonavalent and S$61.50 for bivalent vaccines. RESULTS: Compared with the bivalent vaccine, the use of the nonavalent vaccine was associated with an ICER of S$61,629 per quality-adjusted life year gained in the base case. The result was robust across a range of plausible input values, and to assumptions regarding the duration of vaccine protection. CONCLUSION: Given the high ICER, the nonavalent vaccine is unlikely to represent a cost-effective option compared with the bivalent vaccine for school-based HPV vaccination of 13-year old female students in Singapore. Substantial price reductions would be required to justify its inclusion in the school-based programme in the future.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Systemic Therapy for Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Currently, approved first-line treatment options of metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) include (1) androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) alone, ADT plus one of the following: (2) docetaxel, (3) abiraterone, (4) enzalutamide, and (5) apalutamide. The high cost of novel androgen receptor pathway inhibitors warrants an understanding of the combinations' value by considering both efficacy and cost. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of these five treatment options in mHSPC from the US payer perspective to guide treatment sequence. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to compare the lifetime cost and effectiveness of these five first-line treatment options for mHSPC using outcomes data from published literature. Health outcomes were measured in life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Drug costs were obtained from the Veterans Affairs Pharmaceutical Catalog. We extrapolated survival beyond closure of the trials. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Life-years, QALYs, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated. Univariable, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate parameter uncertainty. A willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of US$100,000 per QALY was used. RESULTS: Compared to ADT alone, docetaxel plus ADT provided a 0.28 QALY gain at an ICER of US$12,870 per QALY. Abiraterone plus ADT provided an additional 1.70 QALYs against docetaxel plus ADT, with an ICER of US$38,897 per QALY. Compared to abiraterone plus ADT, enzalutamide plus ADT provided an additional 0.87 QALYs at an ICER of US$509,813 per QALY. Apalutamide plus ADT was strongly dominated by enzalutamide plus ADT. Given the WTP threshold of US$100,000 per QALY, abiraterone plus ADT represented high-value health care. CONCLUSIONS: Abiraterone plus ADT is the preferred treatment option for men with mHSPC at a WTP threshold of US$100,000 per QALY.

International Recommendations on Reirradiation by Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for Locally Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Reirradiation for locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is challenging because prior radiation dose delivered in the first course is often close to the tolerance limit of surrounding normal structures. A delicate balance between achieving local salvage and minimizing treatment toxicities is needed. However, high-level evidence is lacking because available reports are mostly retrospective studies on small series of patients. Pragmatic consensus guidelines, based on an extensive literature search and the pooling of opinions by leading specialists, will provide a useful reference to assist decision-making for these difficult decisions. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A thorough review of available literature on recurrent NPC was conducted. A set of questions and preliminary draft guideline was circulated to a panel of international specialists with extensive experience in this field for voting on controversial areas and comments. A refined second proposal, based on a summary of the initial voting and different opinions expressed, was recirculated to the whole panel for review and reconsideration. The current guideline was based on majority voting after repeated iteration for final agreement. RESULTS: The initial round of questions showed variations in clinical practice even among the specialists, reflecting the lack of high-quality supporting data and the difficulties in formulating clinical decisions. Through exchange of comments and iterative revisions, recommendations with high-to-moderate agreement were formulated on general treatment strategies and details of reirradiation (including patient selection, targets contouring, dose prescription, and constraints). CONCLUSION: This paper provides useful reference on radical salvage treatment strategies for recurrent NPC and optimization of reirradiation through review of published evidence and consensus building. However, the final decision by the attending clinician must include full consideration of an individual patient's condition, understanding of the delicate balance between risk and benefits, and acceptance of risk of complications.

NPC-0501 trial on the value of changing chemoradiotherapy sequence, replacing 5-fluorouracil with capecitabine, and altering fractionation for patients with advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: A current recommendation for the treatment of patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is conventional fractionated radiotherapy (RT) with concurrent cisplatin followed by adjuvant cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (PF). This randomized NPC-0501 trial evaluated the therapeutic effect of changing to an induction-concurrent sequence or accelerated-fractionation sequence, and/or replacing 5-fluorouracil with capecitabine (X). METHODS: Patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer stage III to stage IVB NPC initially were randomly allocated to 1 of 6 treatment arms (6-arm full-randomization cohort). The protocol was amended in 2009 to permit centers to opt out of randomization regarding fractionation (3-arm chemotherapy cohort). RESULTS: A total of 803 patients were accrued (1 of whom was nonevaluable) from 2006 to 2012. Based on the overall comparisons, neither changing the chemotherapy sequence nor accelerated fractionation improved treatment outcome. However, secondary analyses demonstrated that when adjusted for RT parameters and other significant factors, the induction-concurrent sequence, especially the induction-PX regimen, achieved significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival. Efficacy varied among different RT groups: although no impact was observed in the accelerated-fractionation group and the 3-arm chemotherapy cohort, a comparison of the induction-concurrent versus concurrent-adjuvant sequence in the conventional-fractionation group demonstrated a significant benefit in PFS (78% vs 62% at 5 years; P = .015) and a marginal benefit in overall survival (84% vs 72%; P = .042) after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Comparison of the induction-PX versus the adjuvant-PF regimen demonstrated better PFS (78% vs 62%; P = .027) without an increase in overall late toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: For patients irradiated using conventional fractionation, changing the chemotherapy sequence from a concurrent-adjuvant to an induction-concurrent sequence, particularly using induction cisplatin and capecitabine, potentially could improve efficacy without an adverse impact on late toxicity. However, further validation is needed for confirmation of these findings.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Abiraterone Acetate versus Docetaxel in the management of metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer: Hong Kong's perspective.

BACKGROUND: Several randomized control trials (RCTs) have showed that adding either abiraterone acetate (AA) or docetaxel (D) to androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) improves survival of metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer patients (mCSPC). Yet, the cost-effectiveness of these treatment options has not been fully compared under Hong Kong's setting. This cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) serves as the first study in Hong Kong to compare the economic value of these two combinations ADT + AA vs. ADT + D. METHODS: A deterministic Markov model is used to project cost-effectiveness of each treatment until death. Survival curves for progression/death were extracted and digitized from the five RCTs (CHAARTED, LATITUDE, two STAMPEDE (2016/2017), and GETUG-AFU15). Clinically significant adverse events (AEs) were modeled; utility values were obtained from the literature. Primary outcomes were the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We used the societal perspective from Hong Kong and considered three times of local gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (i.e., US$138,649). We estimated the break-even cost of AA in case ADT + AA is not a cost-effective strategy under this WTP threshold. While considering the standard AA dosage (1000 mg) as the main analysis, we also examined the potential impact of the low-dose AA (250 mg) strategy. RESULTS: Integrating simulations with probabilistic sensitivity analysis, ADT + D returns 0.79 (median; 95% credible interval 0.56-0.97) QALY with an ICER of US$14,397/QALY ($7824-22,632) compared to ADT-alone. A head-to-head comparison indicates that ADT + AA further gains 0.79 (0.45-1.17) QALY but with an ICER of $361,439/QALY ($260,615-599,683) when compared to ADT + D. Considering three times of GDPpc as WTP threshold, ADT + D is more cost-effective in all simulations; while ADT + AA is more cost-effective than ADT + D only if the cost of AA is reduced by at least 63%. The low-dose AA (250 mg) strategy is potentially cost-effective when it generates equivalent efficacy as the standard dosage (1000 mg). CONCLUSIONS: ADT + D is therefore shown to be a more cost-effective strategy than ADT + AA in metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer patients in developed economies. Addition of AA substantially improved QALY compared to D but at a significant cost.

Global comparison of cancer outcomes: standardization and correlation with healthcare expenditures.

BACKGROUND: Cancer outcomes vary widely among different countries. However, comparisons of cost-effectiveness and cost-efficiency of different systems are complex because the incidences of different cancers vary across countries and their chances of cure also differ substantially. We aim to propose a new standardized method for global comparison and to explore its relationship with economic indicators. METHODS: Cancer statistics from all 184 countries and 27 cancers listed in GLOBOCAN 2012 were analyzed. The complement of age-standardized mortality/incidence ratio [1 - (ASM/ASI)] was taken as the proxy relative survival (RS). Accounting for various country-specific cancer patterns, the cancer site-standardized proxy RS (proxy SS-RS) of individual countries were calculated by weighting the proportion of specific cancer sites as compared with the global pattern of incidence. Economic indicators of different countries listed by the World Bank were correlated with corresponding proxy SS-RS. RESULTS: Substantial variation in site-specific survival and new case distribution supported the use of proxy SS-RS, which ranged from 0.124 to 0.622 (median 0.359). The median total health expenditure per capita (HEpc) increased from US$44 for countries with proxy SS-RS < 0.25, to US$4643 for countries with proxy SS-RS ≥0.55. Results from logarithmic regression model showed exponential increase in total HEpc for better outcome. The expenditure varied widely among different strata, with the widest difference observed among countries with SS-RS ≥0.55 (total HEpc US$1412-$9361). CONCLUSIONS: Similar to age-standardization, cancer site-standardization adjusted for variation in pattern of cancer incidence provides the best available and feasible strategies for comparing cancer survivals across countries globally. Furthermore, cancer outcome correlated significantly with economic indicators and the amount of HEpc escalated exponentially. Our findings call for more in-depth studies applying cancer-site standardization to provide essential data for sharing of experience and urgent actions by policy makers to develop comprehensive and financially sustainable cancer plan for greater equity.

International Guideline on Dose Prioritization and Acceptance Criteria in Radiation Therapy Planning for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: The treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma requires high radiation doses. The balance of the risks of local recurrence owing to inadequate tumor coverage versus the potential damage to the adjacent organs at risk (OARs) is of critical importance. With advancements in technology, high target conformality is possible. Nonetheless, to achieve the best possible dose distribution, optimal setting of dose targets and dose prioritization for tumor volumes and various OARs is fundamental. Radiation doses should always be guided by the As Low As Reasonably Practicable principle. There are marked variations in practice. This study aimed to develop a guideline to serve as a global practical reference. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A literature search on dose tolerances and normal-tissue complications after treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma was conducted. In addition, published guidelines and protocols on dose prioritization and constraints were reviewed. A text document and preliminary set of variants was circulated to a panel of international experts with publications or extensive experience in the field. An anonymized voting process was conducted to rank the proposed variants. A summary of the initial voting and different opinions expressed by members were then recirculated to the whole panel for review and reconsideration. Based on the comments of the panel, a refined second proposal was recirculated to the same panel. The current guideline was based on majority voting after repeated iteration for final agreement. RESULTS: Variation in opinion among international experts was repeatedly iterated to develop a guideline describing appropriate dose prioritization and constraints. The percentage of final agreement on the recommended parameters and alternative views is shown. The rationale for the recommendations and the limitations of current evidence are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: Through this comprehensive review of available evidence and interactive exchange of vast experience by international experts, a guideline was developed to provide a practical reference for setting dose prioritization and acceptance criteria for tumor volumes and OARs. The final decision on the treatment prescription should be based on the individual clinical situation and the patient's acceptance of optimal balance of risk.

Patterns of care and treatment outcomes for local recurrence of NPC after definite IMRT-A study by the HKNPCSG.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the contemporary care for patients with locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma after failure of the primary course of intensity modulated radiotherapy. METHODS: Eligible patients were identified through the Hong Kong Cancer Registry database. Patterns of care and treatment outcomes were analyzed. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-two patients with locally recurrent tumors were identified. Of them, 30.9% received surgery, whereas 35.7% received re-irradiation (re-RT). The 5-year overall survival (OS) for the whole group was 30.2%. Old age and advanced rT classification were adverse prognostic factors, whereas surgery (mainly in resectable recurrence) was associated with favorable survival outcome. The 5-year OS rates for patients who received surgery and re-RT were 56.3% and 21.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Early detection of resectable recurrence is of paramount importance as surgery for resectable tumors offers the potential to achieve excellent outcomes. Re-RT could be considered in selected patients with unresectable disease and favorable prognostic features.

Simultaneously characterizing the comparative economics of routine female adolescent nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and assortativity of sexual mixing in Hong Kong Chinese: a modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although routine vaccination of females before sexual debut against human papillomavirus (HPV) has been found to be cost-effective around the world, its cost-benefit has rarely been examined. We evaluate both the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination in Hong Kong to guide its policy, and by extension that of mainland China, on HPV vaccination. One major obstacle is the lack of data on assortativity of sexual mixing. Such difficulty could be overcome by inferring sexual mixing parameters from HPV epidemiologic data. METHODS: We use an age-structured transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations to estimate the health and economic impact of routine nonavalent HPV vaccination for girls at age 12 on cervical cancer burden and consider vaccine uptake at 25%, 50%, and 75% with at least 20 years of vaccine protection. Bayesian inference was employed to parameterize the model using local data on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence. We use the human capital approach in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and GDP per capita as the indicative willingness-to-pay threshold in the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Finally, we estimate the threshold vaccine cost (TVC), which is the maximum cost for fully vaccinating one girl at which routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination is cost-beneficial or cost-effective. RESULTS: As vaccine uptake increased, TVC decreased (i.e., economically more stringent) in the CBA but increased in the CEA. When vaccine uptake was 75% and the vaccine provided only 20 years of protection, the TVC was US$444 ($373-506) and $689 ($646-734) in the CBA and CEA, respectively, increasing by approximately 2-4% if vaccine protection was assumed lifelong. TVC is likely to be far higher when non-cervical diseases are included. The inferred sexual mixing parameters suggest that sexual mixing in Hong Kong is highly assortative by both age and sexual activity level. CONCLUSIONS: Routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old females is highly likely to be cost-beneficial and cost-effective in Hong Kong. Inference of sexual mixing parameters from epidemiologic data of prevalent sexually transmitted diseases (i.e., HPV, chlamydia, etc.) is a potentially fruitful but largely untapped methodology for understanding sexual behaviors in the population.

Comparison of platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and child-pugh (CP) score for predicting of survival in advanced hcc patients receiving radiotherapy (RT).

PURPOSE: This work evaluated the prognostic performance of Child-Pugh (CP), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) scores in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing radiotherapy (RT). RESULTS: The study included 174 consecutive patients with 63% at CP A5 (n = 110) and 34% at CP A6 (n = 64). The median ALBI score was -2.39 (range: -3.61 to -1.41) with 34.5% at grade A1 (n = 60) and 65.5% at grade A2 (n = 114). The median PALBI score was -2.39 (range -3.39 to -1.24) with 33.3% at grade 1 (n = 58), 41.4% at grade 2 (n = 72) and 25.3% at grade 3 (n = 44). With a median follow-up of 21.7 months, the median OS of the entire cohort was 22.2 months. OS was significantly associated with the PALBI grade (p = 0.002) and for the ALBI grade (p = 0.00495), but not for the CP score (p = 0.46). The PALBI grade has a significantly higher AUC compared than the ALBI grade or CP scores in predicting OS. The PALBI grade was predictive of CP score decline ≥2 (20% grade 3 vs. 5.3% grade 1/2 p = 0.05) but the ALBI and CP scores were not. CONCLUSION: Among CP A HCC patients receiving radiotherapy, the PALBI and ALBI grade maybe a better prognostic tool than the CP score. The role of PALBI in predicting liver toxicity warranted further exploration. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed HCC patients treated with individualized hypo-fractionated radiotherapy (IHRT) using stereotactic technique from 2006 to 2015. We collected CP, ALBI and PALBI scores prior to treatment and analyzed their correlation with overall survival (OS) and liver toxicity.

Concurrent-Adjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy for Stage III-IVB Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma-Exploration for Achieving Optimal 10-Year Therapeutic Ratio.

PURPOSE: This is an updated combined analysis of 2 randomized studies (NPC-9901 and NPC-9902 trials) to evaluate the 10-year outcome attributed to the addition of concurrent-adjuvant chemotherapy for advanced locoregional nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients with stage III-IVB nonkeratinizing NPC were randomly assigned to radiation therapy alone (RT: 218 patients) or chemoradiation therapy (CRT: 223 patients) using 3 cycles of cisplatin (100 mg/m2) concurrent with RT, followed by 3 cycles of cisplatin (80 mg/m2) and fluorouracil (1000 mg/m2/day for 4 days). All of the patients were irradiated with conventional fractionation to ≥66 Gy. The median follow-up was 13.9 years. RESULTS: Intention-to-treat analysis confirmed that the CRT group achieved significant improvement in 10-year failure-free rate (FFR: 62% vs 52%, P = .016), progression-free survival rate (PFS: 56% vs 44%, P = .008), and overall survival rate (OS: 60% vs 50%, P = .044). There was no significant increase in overall late toxicity rate (51% vs 48%, P = .34) or noncancer deaths (19% vs 16%, P = .52). Exploratory studies showed no difference in disease control between 2 or 3 cycles of concurrent cisplatin; however, patients given 3 concurrent cycles had a significant increase in hearing impairment (40% vs 24%, P = .017). Only those who continued to receive 2 or more cycles of adjuvant cisplatin-fluorouracil achieved significant improvement in distant control (73% vs 65%, P = .037) and maximal survival gain. CONCLUSION: The addition of concurrent cisplatin plus adjuvant cisplatin-fluorouracil could significantly improve overall survival and disease control without incurring a significant increase in late toxicity or noncancer deaths. Exploratory analyses suggested that both the concurrent and the adjuvant phases contributed to tumor control. Furthermore, the number of concurrent cycles could be reduced from 3 to 2 cycles in order to achieve a similar survival benefit without incurring an excessive increase in hearing impairment. This is a useful hypothesis that warrants further validation.

A multicenter, phase 3, randomized trial of concurrent chemoradiotherapy plus adjuvant chemotherapy versus radiotherapy alone in patients with regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: 10-year outcomes for efficacy and toxicity.

BACKGROUND: Concurrent-adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) became a recommended treatment for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) with the first report of a significant survival benefit from the Intergroup 0099 study. However, data on late toxicities are lacking. Previous reports from the current NPC-9901 trial have raised concerns about a failure to improve overall survival (OS) because of an inadequate impact on distant control and increases in toxicities/noncancer deaths. Validation of the long-term therapeutic ratio is needed. METHODS: In this phase 3, randomized trial, patients with nonkeratinizing NPC (stage T1-4/N2-3/M0) were randomly assigned to radiotherapy alone (176 patients) or to CRT (172 patients) with concurrent cisplatin followed by adjuvant cisplatin plus fluorouracil. RESULTS: The early findings of significant improvements in tumor control were maintained: the CRT group achieved significantly higher 10-year overall failure-free (62% vs 50%; P = .01) and progression-free survival rates (56% vs 42%; P = .006) because of superior locoregional control (87% vs 74%; P = .003), whereas the impact on distant control remained insignificant (68% vs 65%; P = .24). The initial differences in toxicities diminished with longer follow-up: 52% versus 47% at 10 years for late toxicities (P = .20), 4.1% versus 2.8% for deaths due to treatment toxicity, and 15.1% versus 13.1% for deaths due to incidental/unknown causes. The OS rate for the CRT group reached statistical superiority at 10 years (62% vs 49%; P = .047). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term results have confirmed that CRT can significantly improve OS without excessive late toxicities for patients with regionally advanced NPC. However, more potent therapy is needed for improving distant control, especially for patients with stage IVA/B disease. Cancer 2017;123:4147-4157. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Prognostic nomogram for refining the prognostication of the proposed 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system for nasopharyngeal cancer in the era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to develop a nomogram for refining prognostication for patients with nondisseminated nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) staged with the proposed 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging system. METHODS: Consecutive patients who had been investigated with magnetic resonance imaging, staged with the proposed 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system, and irradiated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy from June 2005 to December 2010 were analyzed. A cohort of 1197 patients treated at Fujian Provincial Cancer Hospital was used as the training set, and the results were validated with 412 patients from Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify significant prognostic factors for developing a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability was assessed with the concordance index (c-index). A recursive partitioning algorithm was applied to the survival scores of the combined set to categorize the patients into 3 risk groups. RESULTS: A multivariate analysis showed that age, gross primary tumor volume, and lactate dehydrogenase were independent prognostic factors for OS in addition to the stage group. The OS nomogram based on all these factors had a statistically higher bias-corrected c-index than prognostication based on the stage group alone (0.712 vs 0.622, P <.01). These results were consistent for both the training cohort and the validation cohort. Patients with <135 points were categorized as low-risk, patients with 135 to <160 points were categorized as intermediate-risk, and patients with ≥160 points were categorized as high-risk. Their 5-year OS rates were 92%, 84%, and 58%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomogram could improve prognostication in comparison with the TNM stage group. This could aid in risk stratification for individual NPC patients. Cancer 2016;122:3307-3315. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Proposal for the 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system for nasopharyngeal cancer in the era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: An accurate staging system is crucial for cancer management. Evaluations for continual suitability and improvement are needed as staging and treatment methods evolve. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 1609 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma investigated by magnetic resonance imaging, staged with the 7th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/International Union Against Cancer (UICC) staging system, and irradiated by intensity-modulated radiotherapy at 2 centers in Hong Kong and mainland China. RESULTS: Among the patients without other T3/T4 involvement, there were no significant differences in overall survival (OS) between medial pterygoid muscle (MP) ± lateral pterygoid muscle (LP), prevertebral muscle, and parapharyngeal space involvement. Patients with extensive soft tissue involvement beyond the aforementioned structures had poor OS similar to that of patients with intracranial extension and/or cranial nerve palsy. Only 2% of the patients had lymph nodes > 6 cm above the supraclavicular fossa (SCF), and their outcomes resembled the outcomes of those with low extension. Replacing SCF with the lower neck (extension below the caudal border of the cricoid cartilage) did not affect the hazard distinction between different N categories. With the proposed T and N categories, there were no significant differences in outcome between T4N0-2 and T1-4N3 disease. CONCLUSIONS: After a review by AJCC/UICC preparatory committees, the changes recommended for the 8th edition include changing MP/LP involvement from T4 to T2, adding prevertebral muscle involvement as T2, replacing SCF with the lower neck and merging this with a maximum nodal diameter > 6 cm as N3, and merging T4 and N3 as stage IVA criteria. These changes will lead not only to a better distinction of hazards between adjacent stages/categories but also to optimal balance in clinical practicability and global applicability.