Cardiovascular disease incidence projections in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

BACKGROUND: We aimed to project the 10-year future incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and model several intervention scenarios based on a multi-site Asian HIV-positive cohort. METHODS: Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events for 2019-2028 were estimated with the D:A:D equation, accounting for age- and sex-adjusted mortality. Modelled intervention scenarios were treatment of high total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) or high blood pressure, abacavir or lopinavir substitution, and smoking cessation. RESULTS: Of 3,703 included patients, 69% were male, median age was 46 (IQR 40-53) years and median time since ART initiation was 9.8 years (IQR 7.5-14.1). Cohort incidence rates of CVD were projected to increase from 730 per 100,000 person-years (pys) in 2019 to 1,432 per 100,000 pys in 2028. In the modelled intervention scenarios, most events can be avoided by smoking cessation, abacavir substitution, lopinavir substitution, decreasing total cholesterol, treating high blood pressure and increasing HDL. CONCLUSIONS: Our projections suggest a doubling of CVD incidence rates in Asian HIV-positive adults in our cohort. An increase in CVD can be expected in any ageing population, however, according to our models, this can be close to averted by interventions. Thus, there is an urgent need for risk screening and integration of HIV and CVD programmes to reduce the future CVD burden.

Trends in CD4 cell count response to first-line antiretroviral treatment in HIV-positive patients from Asia, 2003-2013: TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database Low Intensity Transfer.

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) guidelines have changed over the past decade, recommending earlier initiation and more tolerable regimens. The study objective was to examine the CD4 response to ART, depending on the year of ART initiation, in HIV-positive patients in the Asia-Pacific. We included HIV-positive adult patients who initiated ART between 2003 and 2013 in our regional cohort from eight urban referral centres in seven countries within Asia. We used mixed-effects linear regression models to evaluate differences in CD4 response by year of ART initiation during 36 months of follow-up, adjusted a priori for other covariates. Overall, 16,962 patients were included. Patients initiating in 2006-9 and 2010-13 had an estimated mean CD4 cell count increase of 8 and 15 cells/µl, respectively, at any given time during the 36-month follow-up, compared to those in 2003-5. The median CD4 cell count at ART initiation also increased from 96 cells/µl in 2003-5 to 173 cells/µl in 2010-13. Our results suggest that the CD4 response to ART is modestly higher for those initiating ART in more recent years. Moreover, fewer patients are presenting with lower absolute CD4 cell counts over time. This is likely to reduce their risk of opportunistic infections and future non-AIDS defining cancers.

Association of worse prognosis with an aberrant diurnal cortisol rhythm in patients with advanced lung cancer.

A flatter diurnal rhythm of cortisol has been reported to be associated with early mortality in patients with metastatic breast cancer. The clinical stage of disease at the time of diagnosis and the patient's performance status (PS) are known to be important prognostic factors for lung cancer (LC) survival. The authors examined the relationship between diurnal cortisol rhythms and these prognostic factors in patients with advanced LC. Cortisol concentrations were measured in saliva samples collected from 52 patients (37 males/15 females) with advanced LC and from 56 healthy subjects (32 males/24 females) to characterize the diurnal cortisol rhythm, specifically the cortisol awakening response (CAR) and diurnal cortisol decline (DCD). Variations of CAR and DCD in the patients were analyzed according to their clinical disease stage and PS score, and the differences in CAR and DCD between patients and healthy controls were compared. The patient group showed significantly reduced diurnal cortisol secretory activity and rhythmicity, compared with healthy controls. When the patients were subgrouped according to their clinical disease stage, patients with stage 4 disease showed significantly reduced CAR and flatter DCD compared with the healthy controls. However, the CAR and DCD in patients with stage 3a and 3b disease were comparable to those of healthy controls. Neither the CAR nor the DCD showed stepwise changes as the disease stage worsened. When patients were subgrouped according to their Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) PS score, there was stepwise reduction in the CAR and flattening of the DCD as the PS score increased. Both an abolished CAR and a flattened DCD were common in patients with ECOG PS scores of 3 and 4. These results indicate that alteration of the diurnal cortisol rhythm in patients with advanced LC is more closely associated with their PS score than with their clinical disease stage. Gradual alteration of the CAR and DCD, indicative of loss of 24-h cortisol rhythm, in concert with increase in PS score implies that endogenous circadian rhythms may also be disintegrating as the PS score worsens in these patients.