Development of a panel of U.S. adult tobacco users to inform tobacco regulatory science.

The National Panel of Tobacco Consumer Studies (TCS Panel) is a probability-based panel of about 4,000 U.S. adult cigarette, cigar, and smokeless tobacco users developed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Center for Tobacco Products to conduct observational and experimental studies to inform tobacco regulatory activities. This paper describes the methods and characteristics of the current panel. The TCS Panel employed a stratified 4-stage sample design and in-person screening of U.S. sampled households. Selected eligible adults participated in an enrollment interview and completed a baseline survey assessing tobacco use behaviors to enroll in the Panel; 3,893 individuals were enrolled from September 2016-August 2017. Replenishment occurred from July 2019-December 2019 with 2,260 new members, for a current panel of 3,929 members. Demographic and tobacco use characteristics of the current panel were analyzed in 2020. Most demographic characteristics of the TCS Panel are similar to those of U.S. tobacco users in the 2018 National Health Interview Survey, suggesting a lack of systematic bias in the Panel. Small, but statistically significant, differences were observed in the proportion of 18- to 25-year-olds; high school diploma and bachelor's degree/higher; never married and married (p < 0.05 for all). The TCS Panel appears to be representative of U.S. cigarette, cigar, and smokeless tobacco users; such panels can be a feasible method for conducting tobacco regulatory science research. The TCS Panel has been used to field studies examining purchasing behaviors, receipt and use of free samples/coupons, and the impact of a hypothetical tobacco product standard.

Frequency of Tobacco Use Among Middle and High School Students--United States, 2014.

The use of tobacco products during adolescence increases the risk for adverse health effects and lifelong nicotine addiction. In 2014, an estimated 4.6 million middle and high school students were current users of any tobacco product, of whom an estimated 2.2 million were current users of two or more types of tobacco products. Symptoms of nicotine dependence are increased for multiple tobacco product users compared with single-product users. CDC and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) analyzed data from the 2014 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) to determine how frequently (the number of days in the preceding 30 days) U.S. middle school (grades 6­8) and high school (grades 9­12) students used cigarettes, e-cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco products. Among current users (≥1 day during the preceding 30 days) in high school, frequent use (≥20 days during the preceding 30 days) was most prevalent among smokeless tobacco users (42.0%), followed by cigarette smokers (31.6%), e-cigarette users (15.5%), and cigar smokers (13.1%); a similar pattern was observed for those who used during all 30 days. Among current users in middle school, frequent use was greatest among smokeless tobacco users (29.2%), followed by cigarette smokers (20.0%), cigar smokers (13.2%) and e-cigarette users (11.8%). Current use of two or more types of tobacco products was common, even among students who used tobacco products 1­5 days during the preceding 30 days: 77.3% for cigar smokers, 76.9% for cigarette smokers, 63.4% for smokeless tobacco users, and 54.8% for e-cigarettes users. Preventing youths from initiating the use of any tobacco product is important to tobacco use prevention and control strategies in the United States. Monitoring the frequency and patterns of tobacco use among youths, including the use of two or more tobacco products, is important to inform evidence-based interventions to prevent and reduce all forms of tobacco use among youths.

Tobacco use among middle and high school students - United States, 2011-2014.

Tobacco use and addiction most often begin during youth and young adulthood. Youth use of tobacco in any form is unsafe. To determine the prevalence and trends of current (past 30-day) use of nine tobacco products (cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, e-cigarettes, hookahs, tobacco pipes, snus, dissolvable tobacco, and bidis) among U.S. middle (grades 6-8) and high school (grades 9-12) students, CDC and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) analyzed data from the 2011-2014 National Youth Tobacco Surveys (NYTS). In 2014, e-cigarettes were the most commonly used tobacco product among middle (3.9%) and high (13.4%) school students. Between 2011 and 2014, statistically significant increases were observed among these students for current use of both e-cigarettes and hookahs (p<0.05), while decreases were observed for current use of more traditional products, such as cigarettes and cigars, resulting in no change in overall tobacco use. Consequently, 4.6 million middle and high school students continue to be exposed to harmful tobacco product constituents, including nicotine. Nicotine exposure during adolescence, a critical window for brain development, might have lasting adverse consequences for brain development, causes addiction, and might lead to sustained tobacco use. For this reason, comprehensive and sustained strategies are needed to prevent and reduce the use of all tobacco products among youths in the United States.

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

BACKGROUND: Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. CONCLUSION: Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

Association between electronic cigarette use and openness to cigarette smoking among US young adults.

INTRODUCTION: Use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), including electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), is increasing. One concern is the appeal of these products to youth and young adults and the potential to influence perceptions and use of conventional cigarettes. METHODS: Using data from the 2012-2013 National Adult Tobacco Survey, characteristics of adults aged 18-29 years who had never established cigarette smoking behavior were examined by ever use of e-cigarettes, demographics, and ever use of other tobacco products (smokeless tobacco, cigars, hookah, and cigarettes). Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between e-cigarette use and openness to cigarette smoking among young adults, defined as the lack of a firm intention not to smoke soon or in the next year. RESULTS: Among young adults who had never established cigarette smoking behavior (unweighted n = 4,310), 7.9% reported having ever tried e-cigarettes, and 14.6% of those who reported having ever tried e-cigarettes also reported current use of the product. Ever e-cigarette use was associated with being open to cigarette smoking (adjusted odds ratio = 2.4; 95% confidence interval = 1.7, 3.3), as was being male, aged 18-24 years, less educated, and having ever used hookah or experimented with conventional cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: Ever use of e-cigarettes and other tobacco products was associated with being open to cigarette smoking. This study does not allow us to assess the directionality of this association, so future longitudinal research is needed to illuminate tobacco use behaviors over time as well as provide additional insight on the relationship between ENDS use and conventional cigarette use among young adult populations.

Predictive Validity of the Expanded Susceptibility to Smoke Index.

OBJECTIVES: The susceptibility to smoking index can be improved as it only identifies one third of future adult smokers. Adding curiosity to this index may increase the identification of future smokers and improve the identification of effective prevention messages. METHODS: Analyses used data from the California Longitudinal Study of Smoking Transitions in Youth, for whom tobacco use behaviors, attitudes, and beliefs were assessed at 3 time points from age 12 through early adulthood. Logistic regressions were used to evaluate whether baseline curiosity about smoking was predictive of smoking during the 6-year follow-up period and whether curiosity about smoking provided evidence of incremental validity over existing measures of susceptibility to smoking. RESULTS: Compared to those who were classified as definitely not curious about smoking, teens who were classified as probably not curious (OR adj = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.28-2.81) and those classified as definitely curious (OR adj = 2.38, 95% CI= 1.49-3.79) had an increase in the odds of becoming a young adult smoker. Adding curiosity to the original susceptibility to smoking index increased the sensitivity of the enhanced susceptibility index to 78.9% compared to 62.2% identified by the original susceptibility index. However, a loss of specificity meant there was no improvement in the positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: The enhanced susceptibility index significantly improves identification of teens at risk for becoming young adult smokers. Thus, this enhanced index is preferred for identifying and testing potentially effective prevention messages.

Reactions to graphic health warnings in the United States.

This study reports consumer reactions to the graphic health warnings selected by the Food and Drug Administration to be placed on cigarette packs in the United States. We recruited three sets of respondents for an experimental study from a national opt-in e-mail list sample: (i) current smokers aged 25 or older, (ii) young adult smokers aged 18-24 and (iii) youth aged 13-17 who are current smokers or who may be susceptible to initiation of smoking. Participants were randomly assigned to be exposed to a pack of cigarettes with one of nine graphic health warnings or with a text-only warning statement. All three age groups had overall strong negative emotional (ß = 4.7, P < 0.001 for adults; ß = 4.6, P < 0.001 for young adults and ß = 4.0, P < 0.001 for youth) and cognitive (ß = 2.4, P < 0.001 for adults; ß = 3.0, P < 0.001 for young adults and ß = 4.6, P < 0.001 for youth) reactions to the proposed labels. The strong negative emotional and cognitive reactions following a single exposure to the graphic health warnings suggest that, with repeated exposures over time, graphic health warnings may influence smokers' beliefs, intentions and behaviors.

Curiosity predicts smoking experimentation independent of susceptibility in a US national sample.

PURPOSE: To improve smoking prevention efforts, better methods for identifying at-risk youth are needed. The widely used measure of susceptibility to smoking identifies at-risk adolescents; however, it correctly identifies only about one third of future smokers. Adding curiosity about smoking to this susceptibility index may allow us to identify a greater proportion of future smokers while they are still pre-teens. METHODS: We use longitudinal data from a recent national study on parenting to prevent problem behaviors. Only oldest children between 10 and 13years of age were eligible. Participants were identified by RDD survey and followed for 6years. All baseline never smokers with at least one follow-up assessment were included (n=878). The association of curiosity about smoking with future smoking behavior was assessed. Then, curiosity was added to form an enhanced susceptibility index and sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value were calculated. RESULTS: Among committed never smokers at baseline, those who were 'definitely not curious' were less likely to progress toward smoking than both those who were 'probably not curious' (ORadj=1.89; 95% CI=1.03-3.47) or 'probably/definitely curious' (ORadj=2.88; 95% CI=1.11-7.45). Incorporating curiosity into the susceptibility index increased the proportion identified as at-risk to smoke from 25.1% to 46.9%. The sensitivity (true positives) for this enhanced susceptibility index for both experimentation and established smoking increased from 37-40% to over 50%, although the positive predictive value did not improve. CONCLUSION: The addition of curiosity significantly improves the identification and classification of which adolescents will experiment with smoking or become established smokers.

Perceptions of the relative harm of cigarettes and e-cigarettes among U.S. youth.

BACKGROUND: Despite progress in reducing youth smoking, adolescents remain highly susceptible to tobacco use. Of concern is whether youth perceive electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) as a preferable alternative to conventional cigarettes. PURPOSE: To describe cigarette harm perception patterns among youth based on the frequency and intensity of cigarette smoking, and examine the relative harm perceptions of conventional versus e-cigarettes, using data from a large, nationally representative sample of U.S. youth. METHODS: Data from the 2012 National Youth Tobacco Survey (N=24,658) were analyzed in 2013 to identify patterns of cigarette harm perceptions. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to identify associations between demographic and tobacco use characteristics and cigarette harm perception patterns. Logistic regression was conducted to examine the relationship between cigarette harm perceptions and the perception of e-cigarettes as less harmful than cigarettes for current, ever, and never cigarette smokers. RESULTS: The majority of youth (64.2%) perceived the harmfulness of cigarettes as dose-dependent. Approximately one in three students perceived e-cigarettes as less harmful than conventional cigarettes. Regardless of cigarette smoking status, ever users of e-cigarettes and those with "dose-dependent" cigarette harm perceptions consistently were more likely to perceive e-cigarettes as less harmful than conventional cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: Many youth perceive tobacco use on a continuum of harm. Youth who perceive gradations in harm-both by frequency and intensity of cigarette use and by type of product-may be particularly susceptible to e-cigarette use.

Self-reported exposure to tobacco warning labels among U.S. middle and high school students.

BACKGROUND: Warning labels on tobacco products are a means to communicate information about the negative health effects of tobacco use to current and potential users. Most tobacco use begins in early adolescence, making it particularly important to understand the degree to which warning labels reach adolescents. PURPOSE: To examine the extent to which youth report (1) seeing the current warnings on cigarettes and smokeless tobacco (SLT) products in the U.S. and (2) that seeing warnings makes them think about the health risks associated with tobacco use. METHODS: Exposure to warning labels on cigarettes and SLT, as well as the degree to which adolescents report thinking about health risks in response to warnings, was examined among U.S. middle and high school students using data from the 2012 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) and analyzed in 2013. RESULTS: Current data suggest that less than half of adolescents who saw a cigarette pack (46.9%) or SLT product (40.3%) reported seeing the warning label "most of the time" or "always." Among adolescents who reported seeing a warning, less than one third reported that cigarette (30.4%) or SLT (25.2%) warning labels made them think about health risks "a lot." These rates were even lower among current tobacco users (<14%). CONCLUSIONS: Current warning labels for cigarettes and SLT could be improved by implementing warnings that incorporate features that make them salient and more likely to evoke thoughts about health risks.

The marketing of dissolvable tobacco: social science and public policy research needs.

The latest generation of smokeless tobacco products encompasses a wide range of offerings, including what is commonly referred to as dissolvable tobacco. Designed to deliver nicotine upon dissolving or disintegrating in a user's mouth, dissolvable tobacco products currently appear in various United States markets as strips, orbs, sticks, and lozenges. The emergence of these new products poses distinct opportunities and challenges for social and behavioral science and public health research and raises important public policy questions.