Uncovering the clinicopathological features of early recurrence after surgical resection of pancreatic cancer.

To identify risk factors and biomarker for early recurrence in patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer who undergo curative resection. Early recurrence after curative resection of pancreatic cancer is an obstacle to long-term survival. We retrospectively reviewed 162 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer who underwent curative resection. Early recurrence was defined as recurrence within 12 months of surgery. We selected S100A2 as a biomarker and investigated its expression using immunohistochemistry. Of the total, 79.6% (n = 129) of patients received adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery and 117 (72.2%) experienced recurrence, of which 73 (45.1%) experience early recurrence. In multivariate analysis, age < 60 years, presence of lymph node metastasis, and no adjuvant chemotherapy were significantly associated with early recurrence (all P < 0.05). The proportion of patients with high S100A2 expression (H-score > 5) was significantly lower in the early recurrence group (41.5% vs. 63.3%, P = 0.020). The cumulative incidence rate of early recurrence was higher in patients with an S100A2 H-score < 5 (41.5% vs. 63.3%, P = 0.012). The median overall survival of patients with higher S100A2 expression was longer than those with lower S100A2 expression (median 30.1 months vs. 24.2 months, P = 0.003). High-risk factors for early recurrence after surgery for pancreatic cancer include young age, lymph node metastasis, and no adjuvant therapy. Neoadjuvant treatment or intensive adjuvant therapy after surgery may improve the prognosis of patients with high-risk signatures. In patients who receive adjuvant therapy, high S100A2 expression is a good predictor.

CAGE-B and SAGE-B models better predict the hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma after 5-year entecavir treatment than PAGE-B.

OBJECTIVES: The PAGE-B model consists of variables at the initiation of antiviral therapy (AVT), whereas the SAGE-B and CAGE-B models consist of variables after 5 years of AVT. We aimed to compare the predictive accuracy of three risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after 5 years of AVT in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: A total of 1335 patients who initiated entecavir (ETV) treatment between 2006 and 2011 and were followed up for more than 5 years were enrolled in the study. RESULTS: At ETV initiation, the median age was 49 years and the median score of the PAGE-B model was 14. After 5 years of ETV treatment, the median SAGE-B and CAGE-B scores were 6 and 6. During the study period, 93 (7.0%) patients developed HCC after 5-year treatment. In multivariate analysis, PAGE-B (hazard ratio [HR] 1.151, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.087-1.219), SAGE-B (HR 1.340, 95% CI 1.228-1.463), and CAGE-B (HR 1.327, 95% CI 1.223-1.440) models independently predicted HCC development after 5 years of treatment (all P < 0.001). The high-risk groups of the three risk prediction models showed a significantly higher risk of HCC development compared to the medium- and low-risk groups (both P < 0.05). The AUROC of the SAGE-B (0.772-0.844) and CAGE-B (0.785-0.838) models was significantly higher than those of the PAGE-B model (0.696-0.745) in predicting HCC development after 5 years of treatment (both P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The SAGE-B and CAGE-B models might be better than the PAGE-B model in predicting HCC development after 5 years of ETV treatment.

Predictive Performance of CAGE-B and SAGE-B Models in Asian Treatment-Naive Patients Who Started Entecavir for Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cirrhosis and age (CAGE-B) and stiffness and age (SAGE-B) models assess the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in white patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) undergoing sustained antiviral therapy (AVT). Herein, we checked the predictive performance of these models in Asian patients with CHB. METHODS: We reviewed 734 treatment-naive patients with CHB who started entecavir between 2006 and 2011 and were followed up for more than 5 years without HCC development during AVT. The predictive performance of CAGE-B and SAGE-B models was calculated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). RESULTS: Median liver stiffness assessed using transient elastography after 5 years of AVT was 6.8 kPa. Median CAGE-B and SAGE-B models after 5 years of AVT were 7.0 and 6.0, respectively. More than 5 years after AVT initiation, 66 patients (9.0%) developed HCC. The AUROCs of the CAGE-B and SAGE-B models were 0.764 and 0.785 after 7 years and 0.799 and 0.802 after 10 years of AVT, respectively. The cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in the high-risk groups according to CAGE-B and SAGE-B risk stratification than in the medium- and low-risk groups (P < .05 in all cases). The SAGE-B model showed a higher likelihood ratio (χ2) (76.2 vs 71.4) and linear trend (χ2) (74.1 vs 58.6) than the CAGE-B model, whereas the CAGE-B model showed higher Akaike information criteria (64.3 vs 50.3). CONCLUSIONS: Both SAGE-B and CAGE-B showed acceptable performance in predicting HCC after 5 years of AVT in Asian patients with CHB.

Efficacy of entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, and tenofovir alafenamide in treatment-naive hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Antiviral agents for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reduced the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. The outcomes of entecavir (ETV), tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) were compared in patients with CHB. METHODS: Between 2017 and 2019, treatment-naïve patients with CHB treated with ETV, TDF, and TAF were recruited from three Korean tertiary institutes. The cumulative incidences of HCC and orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) or mortality were calculated and compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis before and after trimatch. RESULTS: Among recruited 2082 patients, 43 patients developed HCC, whereas 66 developed OLT or mortality. Before trimatch, the cumulative incidence of HCC was statistically similar among patients treated with three antiviral agents (p = 0.340). However, the cumulative probability of OLT or mortality development in patients treated with ETV or TDF was significantly higher than that of patients with TAF before trimatch (all p < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, male sex [hazard ratio (HR) 2.990] and older age (HR 1.044) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development, whereas higher platelet count (HR 0.993) was independently associated with a decreased risk (all p < 0.05). The type of antiviral agents did not significantly influence the risk of HCC and OLT or mortality development (all p > 0.05). After trimatch, no significant difference in the cumulative probability for HCC and OLT or mortality according to antiviral agents was found (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The outcomes of ETV, TDF, and TAF on the risk of HCC and OLT or mortality were statistically similar in treatment-naïve patients with CHB.

Addition of liver stiffness enhances the predictive accuracy of the PAGE-B model for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) and PAGE-B models reliably predict the risk of developing chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). AIM(S): To investigate whether the addition of liver stiffness (LS) value, assessed using transient elastography, enhanced the predictive accuracies of these models METHODS: Patients with CHB who started anti-viral therapy (AVT) between 2007 and 2017 were enrolled. The training (Yonsei University Hospital) and validation (seven Korean referral institutes) cohorts contained 1211 and 973 patients, respectively. RESULTS: Based on multivariate analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.051, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.031-1.071), male sex (HR = 2.265, 95% CI = 1.463-3.506), lower platelet count (HR = 0.993, 95% CI = 0.989-0.997) and greater LS values (HR = 1.015, 95% CI = 1.002-1.028) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Thus, we developed a modified PAGELS -B model (maximum score 34) that included age, male sex, platelet count and LS value. The integrated area under the curve of the modified PAGELS model was greater than those of the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models (0.760 vs 0.714 and 0.716, respectively) in the derivation dataset. The cumulative HCC incidence was significantly higher in the high-risk (modified PAGE-BLS score ≥ 24) group than in the intermediate-risk (modified PAGELS -B score 12-24) or low-risk (modified PAGELS -B score < 12) group (all P < 0.001). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive accuracies of the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models were validated in Korean patients with CHB receiving AVT. However, the modified PAGELS -B model featuring the addition of LS value showed higher predictability than the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models.

Dynamics of liver stiffness-based risk prediction model during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

OBJECTIVE: The liver stiffness-based risk prediction models predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. We investigated the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on liver stiffness-based risk prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: Patients with CHB who initiated AVT were retrospectively recruited from 13 referral Korean institutes. The modified risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (mREACH-B) model was selected for the analysis. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2015, 1034 patients with CHB were recruited. The mean age of the study population (639 men and 395 women) was 46.8 years. During AVT, the mREACH-B score significantly decreased from the baseline to 3 years of AVT (mean 9.21 → 7.46, P < 0.05) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (mean 7.23, P > 0.05). The proportion of high-risk patients (mREACH-B score ≥11) was significantly reduced from the baseline to 2 years of AVT (36.4% → 16.4%, P < 0.001) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (12.2%, P > 0.05). The mREACH-B scores at baseline and 1 year of AVT independently predicted HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.209-1.224) (all P < 0.05). The cumulative incidence rate of HCC was significantly different at 5 years of AVT among risk groups (high vs. high-intermediate vs. low-intermediate vs. low) from baseline (4.5% vs. 3.2% vs. 1.5% vs. 0.8%) and 1 year (11.8% vs. 4.6% vs. 1.8% vs. 0.6%) (all P < 0.05, log-rank tests). CONCLUSIONS: The mREACH-B score was dynamically changed during AVT. Thus, repeated assessment of the mREACH-B score is required to predict the changing risk of HCC development in patients with CHB undergoing AVT.

Impact of antiviral therapy on risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

AIM: Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. However, the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on these models in patients with chronic hepatitis B is unknown. METHODS: The dynamic changes in risk prediction models during AVT and the association between risk prediction model and the risk of chronic hepatitis B-related HCC development were investigated. Between 2005 and 2017, 4917 patients with chronic hepatitis B (3361 noncirrhotic, 1556 cirrhotic) were recruited. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 49.3 years and 60.6% (n = 2980) of the patients were male. The mean Chinese University-HCC (CU-HCC) score was 12.7 at baseline in the overall study population, and decreased significantly (mean, 8.7) after 1 year of AVT (p < 0.001). The score was maintained throughout 5 years of AVT (mean, 8.4-8.8; p > 0.05). The proportion of high-risk patients (CU-HCC score ≥ 20) was 28.9% at baseline, and decreased significantly after 1 year of AVT (5.0%; p < 0.001), and remained stable through 5 years of AVT (2.2%-3.6%; p > 0.05). In addition to the score at baseline, the CU-HCC score at 1 year of AVT independently predicted the risk of HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.072; p < 0.001), together with male gender and platelet count (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The CU-HCC score significantly decreased at 1 year of AVT and was maintained thereafter. The CU-HCC score after 1 year of AVT independently predicted the risk of HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B.