Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Various HFE Genotypes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) is associated with increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, HCC risk factors within this population and across various HFE genotypes remain unclear. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with ≥ 1 HFE genotype test in the Veterans Health Administration. We followed patients until HCC, death, or 6/30/19. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) and used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate HCC risk. In patients with type-1 HH genotypes (C282Y/C282Y or C282Y/H63D), we examined risk factors for HCC. RESULTS: We identified 5225 patients: 260 were C282Y/C282Y; 227 were C282Y/H63D; 436 were H63D heterozygous; 535 had other HFE mutations; 3767 without mutation. IR for C282Y/C282Y homozygotes (5.59/1000 PYs) and C282Y/H63D compound heterozygotes (4.12/1000 PYs) were significantly higher than controls (0.92/1000 PYs) with adjusted hazard ratio (adj HR), 95% CI 8.80, 4.17-18.54; and 5.25, 2.24-12.32, respectively. HCC risk was higher in H63D heterozygote than controls (adj HR = 2.82, 95% CI 1.21-6.58); cases were related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Among patients with HH, age ≥ 65 (adj HR = 2.2, 95% CI 0.47-10.27), diabetes (adj HR 3.74, 95% CI 1.25-11.20) and high baseline aspartate-aminotransferase to platelet ratio-index (APRI, adj HR = 3.91, 95% CI 1.29-11.89) had higher risk. Among patients with high baseline ferritin, persistent ferritin > 250 ng/mL had higher risk. CONCLUSION: HCC risk was high in C282Y homozygous and C282Y/H63D patients. These HFE genotypes, older age, diabetes, high APRI/ferritin levels were associated with increased risk. While H63D heterozygous genotype was associated with HCC risk, this association might be due to metabolic factors.

Clinical Course and Outcomes of Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-Related Hepatocellular Cancer (NAFLD-HCC).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Among etiologies for hepatocellular (HCC), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) carries a high risk of competing non-cancer mortality. The effect of cancer and non-cancer factors on risk of death after NAFLD-HCC diagnosis remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the role of non-cancer mortality with NAFLD-HCC. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort of patients with NAFLD diagnosed at 130 facilities in the Veterans Administration, we identified patients with incident HCC diagnosed between January 1, 2005 and June 30, 2018. We determined cause of death as HCC-related, non-HCC liver-related, and non-liver-related after HCC diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the effect of clinical factors on cause-specific mortality after NAFLD-HCC diagnosis. RESULTS: We identified 776 patients with incident HCC. Mean age at HCC diagnosis was 70.1 year, 22.2% had Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0-A, and 67.0% had more than one comorbidity. 1- and 3-year mortality rates were 47.0% and 69.6%, respectively. Most deaths (72.2% at 3 years) were attributable to HCC. In HCC patients who received curative treatment, non-cancer mortality accounted for 40% of all deaths between 3 and 5 years after treatment. Poor performance status (ECOG 3/4, HR 5.03, 95% CI: 2.59-9.77) and older age (65-75, HR 1.94, 95% CI: 1.06-3.54) were strongly associated with non-cancer mortality. CONCLUSION: Although most patients with NAFLD-HCC die of HCC, non-cancer mortality represents a clinically meaningful competing event for patients receiving curative treatment, underscoring the importance of assessing and managing risk factors of non-cancer morbidity and mortality. TRIAL AND REGISTRATION: N/A.

Longitudinal changes in fibrosis markers are associated with risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Currently, there is no consistent information on the course of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score changes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or their association with subsequent risk of cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we aimed to evaluate the association between longitudinal changes in FIB-4 and subsequent risk of HCC and a composite endpoint of cirrhosis and HCC in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with NAFLD seen in 130 Veterans Administration hospitals between 1/1/2004-12/31/2008, with follow-up through to 12/31/2018. We calculated FIB-4 longitudinally and categorized patients based on risk of advanced fibrosis (low-risk FIB-4 <1.45, indeterminate-risk FIB-4 1.45-2.67, and high-risk FIB-4 >2.67). We used landmark Fine-Gray competing risks models to determine the effects of change in FIB-4 between NAFLD diagnosis date and 3-year landmark time on the subsequent risk of HCC and a composite endpoint. RESULTS: Among the 202,319 patients with NAFLD in the 3-year landmark analysis, 473 progressed to HCC at an incidence rate of 0.28 per 1,000 person years (PY) (95% CI 0.26-0.30). The incidence rate of the composite endpoint was 1.31 per 1,000 PY (95% CI 1.25-1.37). At baseline, 74.7%, 21.4%, and 3.8% of patients had a low, indeterminate, and high FIB-4, respectively. Compared to patients who were at stable low FIB-4 at both time points, the risk of HCC and that of the composite endpoint was higher for all other subgroups with the highest risk in patients with persistently high FIB-4 (HCC adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio 57.7, 95% CI 40.5-82.2 and composite endpoint hazard ratio 28.6, 95% CI 24.6-33.2). CONCLUSION: Longitudinal changes in FIB-4 were strongly associated with progression to cirrhosis and HCC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Tools to stratify the risk of HCC development in patients with NAFLD are currently lacking. The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score is a widely available non-invasive test for liver fibrosis, a primary determinant of the development of cirrhosis and HCC. In a large retrospective cohort of patients with NAFLD, we found that serial changes in FIB-4 over time were strongly associated with progression to cirrhosis and HCC. Integrating serial measurements of non-invasive tests for fibrosis into the care pathway for patients with NAFLD could help tailor HCC risk prevention.

Risk of Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are limited data on the risk of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to estimate the risk of incident HCC among patients with NAFLD. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study from a total of 130 facilities in the Veterans Health Administration. Patients with NAFLD diagnosed between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2008 were included and followed until HCC diagnosis, death, or December 31, 2015. We also identified a sex- and age-matched control cohort without NAFLD. We ascertained all new HCC cases from the Central Cancer Registry and manual chart reviews. We calculated incidence rates for HCC by NAFLD status, as well as in subgroups of NAFLD patients. We used competing risk models to compare the risk of HCC in patients with NAFLD vs those without NAFLD. We reviewed electronic medical records of all HCC cases that developed in NAFLD patients without cirrhosis. RESULTS: We compared 296,707 NAFLD patients with 296,707 matched controls. During 2,382,289 person-years [PYs] of follow-up, 490 NAFLD patients developed HCC (0.21/1000 PYs). HCC incidence was significantly higher among NAFLD patients vs controls (0.02/1000 PYs; hazard ratio, 7.62; 95% confidence interval, 5.76-10.09). Among patients with NAFLD, those with cirrhosis had the highest annual incidence of HCC (10.6/1000 PYs). Among patients with NAFLD cirrhosis, HCC risk ranged from 1.6 to 23.7 per 1000 PYs based on other demographic characteristics; risk of HCC was the highest in older Hispanics with cirrhosis. In medical record reviews, 20% of NAFLD patients with HCC had no evidence of cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of HCC was higher in NAFLD patients than that observed in general clinical population. Most HCC cases in NAFLD developed in patients with cirrhosis. The absolute risk of HCC was higher than the accepted thresholds for HCC surveillance for most patients with NAFLD cirrhosis.