Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis B virus-related compensated cirrhosis receiving antiviral therapy.

The feasibility and performance of predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a combined albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4)-based model remain unclear in patients with compensated cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving long-term nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) therapy. We enrolled 1158 NA-naïve patients with compensated cirrhosis and CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. The patients' baseline characteristics, hepatic reserve, and fibrosis indices were analyzed. The combination of ALBI and FIB-4 was used to develop a prediction model of HCC. In this cohort, the cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years were 8.1%, 13.2%, and 24.1%, respectively. The combination of ALBI and FIB-4, Diabetes mellitus, and Alpha-fetoprotein (AFDA) were independent risk factors for HCC. The combined ALBI and FIB-4-based prediction model (i.e., AFDA) stratified the cumulative risk of HCC into three groups (with risk scores of 0, 1-3, 4-6) among all patients (P < 0.001). AFDA exhibited the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (0.6812) for predicting HCC, which was higher than those of aMAP (0.6591), mPAGE-B (0.6465), CAMD (0.6379), and THRI (0.6356) and significantly higher than those of PAGE-B (0.6246), AASL-HCC (0.6242), and HCC-RESCUE (0.6242). Patients with a total score of 0 (n = 187, 16.1% of total patients) had the lowest cumulative HCC incidence of 3.4% at 5 years. The combined ALBI and FIB-4-based prediction model can stratify the risk of HCC in patients with compensated cirrhosis and CHB receiving NA therapy.

Combined CRAFITY score and α-fetoprotein response predicts treatment outcomes in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma receiving anti-programmed death-1 blockade-based immunotherapy.

Biomarkers for predicting the treatment efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI)-based therapy in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) are crucial. Previous studies demonstrated that C-reactive protein and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in immunotherapy (CRAFITY) score at baseline predicted treatment outcomes and that patients with uHCC with AFP response, defined as > 15% decline in AFP level within the initial 3 months of ICI-based therapy, had favorable outcomes when receiving ICI-based therapy. However, whether the combination of CRAFITY score and AFP response could be used to predict treatment efficacy of programmed death-1 (PD-1) blockade-based therapy in uHCC patients remains unclear. We retrospectively enrolled 110 consecutive uHCC patients from May 2017 to March 2022. The median ICI treatment duration was 2.85 (1.67-6.63) months, and 87 patients received combination therapies. The objective response and disease control rates were 21.8% and 46.4%, respectively. The duration of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was 2.87 (2.16-3.58) months and 8.20 (4.23-12.17) months, respectively. We categorized patients into three groups based on CRAFITY score (2 vs 0/1) and AFP response: patients with a CRAFITY score of 0/1 and AFP response (Group 1), those with a CRAFITY score of 2 and no AFP response (group 3), and those who did not belong to Group 1 and 3 (i.e., Group 2). The combination of CRAFITY score and AFP response could predict disease control and could predict PFS compared with CRAFITY score or AFP response alone. The combination of CRAFITY score and AFP response was an independent predictor of OS (Group 2 vs Group 1, HR: 4.513, 95% CI 1.990-10.234; Group 3 vs Group 1, HR: 3.551, 95% CI 1.544-8.168). Our findings indicated that the combination of CRAFITY score and AFP response could predict disease control, PFS, and OS in uHCC patients receiving PD-1 blockade-based immunotherapy.

Combined Liver Stiffness and Α-fetoprotein Further beyond the Sustained Virologic Response Visit as Predictors of Long-Term Liver-Related Events in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C.

Aims: Long-term risk stratification using combined liver stiffness (LS) and clinically relevant blood tests acquired at the baseline further beyond the sustained virologic response (SVR) visit for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has not been thoroughly investigated. This study retrospectively investigated the prognostics of liver-related events (LREs) further beyond the SVR visit. Methods: Cox regression and random forest models identified the key factors, including longitudinal LS and noninvasive test results, that could predict LREs, including hepatocellular carcinoma, during prespecified follow-ups from 2010 to 2021. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis estimated the significance of between-group risk stratification. Results: Of the entire eligible cohort (n = 520) of CHC patients with SVR to antiviral therapy, 28 (5.4%) patients developed post-SVR LREs over a median follow-up period of 6.1 years (interquartile range = 3.5-8.7). The multivariate Cox regression analysis identified two significant predictors of LREs after the year 3 post-SVR (Y3PSVR) baseline (LRE, n = 15 of 28, 53.6%, median follow-up = 4.1 [1.6-6.4] years after Y3PSVR): LS at Y3PSVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.980, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.085-7.597, P < 0.001), and α-fetoprotein (AFP) at Y3PSVR (aHR = 1.017, 95% CI = 1.001-1.034, P=0.034). LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL for Y3PSVR yielded positive likelihood ratios of 4.24 and 2.62, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that among the stratified subgroups, the subgroup with concurrent LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL at Y3PSVR exhibited the highest risk of LREs after Y3PSVR (log-rank P < 0.001). Conclusion: We recommend the combined use of concurrent LS and AFP in future prediction models for LREs in CHC. Patients with concurrently high LS and AFP values further beyond the SVR visit may require a recall policy involving intense surveillance.

Posttreatment nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis scores for predicting liver-related complications in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving direct-acting antiviral agents.

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) have a higher prevalence of hepatic steatosis and dyslipidaemia than healthy individuals. We analysed noninvasive fibrosis assessments, especially nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related noninvasive fibrosis tests, for predicting liver-related complications and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with CHC. This retrospective study enrolled 590 consecutive patients with CHC having a sustained virologic response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral agent (DAA) therapy. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) exhibiting the highest value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was selected for comparison with the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). Of the 590 patients, 188 had metabolic syndrome. A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified total bilirubin at 3 or 6 months after DAA therapy (PW12), NFS at PW12 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.125, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.058-4.267, p = .034) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at PW12 (HR: 1.071, 95% CI: 1.005-1.142, p = .034) as the independent predictors of liver-related complications in all patients. In patients with metabolic syndrome, NFS and AFP values at PW12 were independent predictors of liver-related complications and HCC occurrence. Time-dependent NFS AUROC values at PW12 for 1-, 2- and 3-year liver-related complications were higher than NFS values at baseline in patients with metabolic syndrome. NFS at baseline or PW12 is a more effective predictor of liver-related complications than FIB-4 values in all patients. NFS at PW12 may be a useful predictor of liver-related complications and HCC development in patients with CHC with an SVR to DAA therapy, especially in those with metabolic syndrome.

Long-term surveillance of liver histological changes in chronic hepatitis C patients completing pegylated interferon-α plus ribavirin therapy: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: For chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients completing pegylated interferon (PegIFN)-α/ribavirin therapy, long-term liver histological changes remain largely unexplored. METHODS: This observational cohort study included 85 CHC patients completing PegIFN-α/ribavirin therapy with liver biopsies performed at baseline and the end of surveillance (EOS). Median years between paired biopsies were 6.75 (interquartile range: 5.63-7.54). RESULTS: In patients with baseline METAVIR fibrosis stages (F) <4 (able to undergo fibrosis progression; n = 77), cases achieving sustained virological response (SVR) (n = 52) had a significantly lower rate of fibrosis progression than non-SVR cases (n = 25) (3.8% versus 24.0%, p = 0.012). Among the entire cohort (n = 85), the rate of activity response [METAVIR activity grades (A) decreasing or maintaining at A0] in SVR cases (n = 59) was significantly higher than that in non-SVR cases (n = 26) (94.9% versus 65.4%, p = 0.001). For SVR cases among the entire cohort, independent predictors of fibrosis clearance included baseline F <2 [odds ratio (OR) = 7.877, p = 0.042] and aspartate transaminase (AST) levels declining by >70% at EOS compared with baseline (OR = 9.013, p = 0.038). For non-SVR cases among the entire cohort, baseline AST levels >80 U/l and glucose levels ⩽ 105 mg/dl independently predicted significant fibrosis (F2/F3/F4) at EOS (OR = 12.558, p = 0.049) and activity response (OR = 17.741, p = 0.047), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among CHC patients completing PegIFN-α/ribavirin therapy, SVR lowers the risk of liver histological progression but does not guarantee fibrosis clearance. For SVR cases, those with baseline F ⩾ 2 or without significantly declined follow-up AST levels should be specifically monitored. As for non-SVR cases, those with a higher baseline AST or glucose level should preferentially receive retreatment.

Liver and Spleen Stiffness Surveillance Through Elastography During and After Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVES: Direct-acting antiviral agents achieve a high cure rate, resulting in early hepatic necroinflammatory resolution and sustained fibrosis regression. This study aimed to obtain longitudinal, concurrent within-subject measurements of liver stiffness (LS) and spleen stiffness (SS) and their correlates over time. METHODS: Participants with hepatitis C (n = 592) receiving direct-acting antiviral-based therapy were monitored through point shear-wave elastography from the treatment baseline (TW0) across follow-up visits in terms of LS and SS. RESULTS: Generalized linear mixed modeling indicated that all LS values (2301 visits) were negatively correlated with the follow-up times (all P < .05) from TW0 to 24 weeks (PW24) after the end of treatment (EOT) and positively correlated with baseline LS values (P < .001). The slopes of declines (preceding minus next) differed significantly (P < .001) between TW0-TW4 (treatment week 4) (0.060 [-0.050 to 0.225] meter/second/month [m/s/mo]) and TW4-EOT (0.010 [-0.030 to 0.075] m/s/mo). All SS values (1704 visits) were negatively correlated with time only at PW24 (P < .001) and positively correlated with baseline SS values (P < .001). The slopes of the SS values differed significantly (P < .001) only between EOT-PW12 (-0.010 [-0.110 to 0.083] m/s/mo) and PW12-PW24 (0.043 [-0.063 to 0.160] m/s/mo). CONCLUSIONS: The biphasic fast-to-slow decline in LS occurred early in the on-treatment phase, which is consistent with the resolution of hepatic necroinflammation. The slow-to-fast decline in SS occurred off treatment. Future studies should investigate the association with regressions in liver fibrosis and portal hypertension.

Do peripartum and postmenopausal women with primary liver cancer have a worse prognosis? A nationwide cohort in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: While primary liver cancer (PLC) is one of the most common cancers around the world, few large-scale population-based studies have been reported that evaluated the clinical survival outcomes among peripartum and postmenopausal women with PLC. AIM: To investigate whether peripartum and postmenopausal women with PLC have lower overall survival rates compared with women who were not peripartum and postmenopausal. METHODS: The Taiwan National Health Insurance claims data from 2000 to 2012 was used for this propensity-score-matched study. A cohort of 40 peripartum women with PLC and a reference cohort of 160 women without peripartum were enrolled. In the women with PLC with/without menopause study, a study cohort of 10752 menopausal females with PLC and a comparison cohort of 2688 women without menopause were enrolled. RESULTS: Patients with peripartum PLC had a non-significant risk of death compared with the non-peripartum cohort [adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) = 1.40, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.89-2.20, P = 0.149]. The survival rate at different follow-up durations between peripartum PLC patients and those in the non-peripartum cohort showed a non-significant difference. Patients who were diagnosed with PLC younger than 50 years old (without menopause) had a significant lower risk of death compared with patients diagnosed with PLC at or older than 50 years (postmenopausal) (aHR = 0.64, 95%CI: 0.61-0.68, P < 0.001). The survival rate of women < 50 years with PLC was significantly higher than older women with PLC when followed for 0.5 (72.44% vs 64.16%), 1 (60.57% vs 51.66%), 3 (42.92% vs 31.28%), and 5 year(s) (37.02% vs 21.83%), respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Peripartum females with PLC have no difference in survival rates compared with those patients without peripartum. Menopausal females with PLC have worse survival rates compared with those patients without menopause.

On-Treatment Albumin-Bilirubin Grade: Predictor of Response and Outcome of Sorafenib-Regorafenib Sequential Therapy in Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

In the RESORCE study, regorafenib after sorafenib therapy improved survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In total, 88 patients with unresectable HCC who received sorafenib-regorafenib sequential therapy were enrolled. The objective response rate and disease control rate were 19.3% and 48.9%, respectively, for regorafenib therapy (median duration: 8.1 months). Median progression-free survival (PFS) after regorafenib therapy was 4.2 months (95% CI: 3.2-5.1). The median overall survival (OS; from initiation of either sorafenib or regorafenib) was not reached in this cohort. According to multivariate Cox regression analyses, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade at the initiation of regorafenib therapy is an independent predictor of disease control, PFS, and OS. Moreover, the combination of ALBI grade 2 and an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level of ≥20 ng/mL was an independent predictor of PFS (hazard ratio (HR): 3.088, 95% CI: 1.704-5.595; p < 0.001) for regorafenib therapy, and OS for both regorafenib (HR: 3.783, 95% CI: 1.316-10.88; p = 0.014) and sorafenib-regorafenib sequential (HR: 4.603, 95% CI: 1.386-15.29; p = 0.013) therapy. A combination of ALBI grade and AFP level can be used to stratify patients with unresectable HCC by PFS and OS probability for sorafenib-regorafenib sequential therapy.

Alpha-fetoprotein response predicts treatment outcomes in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors with or without tyrosine kinase inhibitors or locoregional therapies.

Combined immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) along with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and locoregional therapies have been used increasingly to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Biomarkers are required to predict the treatment efficacy of ICIs with or without combination therapies in patients with unresectable HCC. This study enrolled 95 consecutive patients with unresectable HCC from May 2017 to June 2021 from two hospitals retrospectively. Of the 95 patients, 15 and 80 had Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages B and C, respectively. The median ICI treatment duration was 3.43 (1.87-7.87) months, and 77 patients received combination therapies. Radiological imaging was not performed in 13 patients. Objective response and disease control rates were 27.4% and 53.7%, respectively. The duration of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was 4.07 (1.59-6.54) months and 14.53 (6.93-22.14) months, respectively. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response was defined as a decline of >15% in the serum AFP level within the initial 3 months of ICI therapy according to Youden's index. AFP response was determined to be a predictor of disease control (odds ratio: 11.657, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.834-47.941, P=.001). Macrovascular invasion (MVI), AFP response (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.488, 95% CI: 0.255-0.934, P=.030), combination therapy, and disease control were predictors of PFS, and MVI, AFP response (HR: 0.344, 95% CI: 0.160-0.737, P=.006), and disease control were predictors of OS. AFP response was a predictor of disease control, PFS, and OS. These findings indicate that AFP response can serve as a biomarker to predict treatment outcomes in patients with unresectable HCC receiving ICIs with or without TKIs or locoregional therapies.

Prognostic roles of diabetes mellitus and hypertension in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It remains limited whether diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) affect the prognosis of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib. Our study attempted to elucidate the roles of DM/HTN and the effects of diabetes medications among advanced HCC patients receiving sorafenib. METHODS: From August 2012 to February 2018, 733 advanced HCC patients receiving sorafenib were enrolled at China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan. According to the presence/absence of DM or HTN, they were divided into four groups: control [DM(-)/HTN(-), n = 353], DM-only [DM(+)/HTN(-), n = 91], HTN-only [DM(-)/HTN(+), n = 184] and DM+HTN groups [DM(+)/HTN(+), n = 105]. Based on the types of diabetes medications, there were three groups among DM patients (the combined cohort of DM-only and DM+HTN groups), including metformin (n = 63), non-metformin oral hypoglycemic agent (OHA) (n = 104) and regular insulin (RI)/neutral protamine hagedorn (NPH) groups (n = 29). We then assessed the survival differences between these groups. RESULTS: DM-only and DM+HTN groups significantly presented longer overall survival (OS) than control group (control vs. DM-only, 7.70 vs. 11.83 months, p = 0.003; control vs. DM+HTN, 7.70 vs. 11.43 months, p = 0.008). However, there was no significant OS difference between control and HTN-only group (7.70 vs. 8.80 months, p = 0.111). Besides, all groups of DM patients showed significantly longer OS than control group (control vs. metformin, 7.70 vs. 12.60 months, p = 0.011; control vs. non-metformin OHA, 7.70 vs. 10.80 months, p = 0.016; control vs. RI/NPH, 7.70 vs. 15.20 months, p = 0.026). CONCLUSIONS: Rather than HTN, DM predicts better prognosis in advanced HCC treated with sorafenib. Besides, metformin, non-metformin OHA and RI/NPH are associated with longer survival among DM-related advanced HCC patients receiving sorafenib.

On-Treatment Changes in FIB-4 and 1-Year FIB-4 Values Help Identify Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Entecavir Therapy Who Have the Lowest Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Noninvasive fibrosis indices can help stratify the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy. We investigated the predictive performance of on-treatment changes in FIB-4 (△FIB-4) and 1-year FIB-4 values (FIB-4 12M) for HCC risk in patients with CHB receiving entecavir therapy. We included 1325 NA-naïve patients with CHB treated with entecavir, retrospectively, from January 2007 to August 2012. A combination of △FIB-4 and FIB-4 12M was used to stratify the cumulative risk of HCC into three subgroups each in the noncirrhotic and cirrhotic subgroups with p < 0.0001 by using the log-rank test (noncirrhotic: the highest risk (n = 88): FIB-4 12M ≥ 1.58/△FIB-4 ≥ 0 (hazard ratio (HR): 40.35; 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.107-318.7; p <0.0001) and cirrhotic: the highest risk (n = 89): FIB-4 12M ≥2.88/△FIB-4 ≥0 (HR: 9.576; 95% CI: 5.033-18.22; p < 0.0001)). Patients with noncirrhotic CHB treated with entecavir who had a FIB-4 12M < 1.58 or FIB-4 12M ≥ 1.58/△FIB-4 < 0 exhibited the lowest 5-year HCC risk (0.6%). A combination of on-treatment changes in FIB-4 and 1-year FIB-4 values may help identify patients with CHB receiving entecavir therapy with the lowest risk of HCC.

Sequential Circulating Tumor Cell Counts in Patients with Locally Advanced or Metastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Monitoring the Treatment Response.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is among the most common causes of cancer death in men. Whether or not a longitudinal follow-up of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) before and at different time points during systemic/targeted therapy is useful for monitoring the treatment response of patients with locally advanced or metastatic HCC has been evaluated in this study. Blood samples (n = 104) were obtained from patients with locally advanced or metastatic HCC (n = 30) for the enrichment of CTCs by a negative selection method. Analysis of the blood samples from patients with defined disease status (n = 81) revealed that those with progressive disease (PD, n = 37) had significantly higher CTC counts compared to those with a partial response (PR) or stable disease (SD; n = 44 for PR + SD, p = 0.0002). The median CTC count for patients with PD and for patients with PR and SD was 50 (interquartile range 21-139) and 15 (interquartile range 4-41) cells/mL of blood, respectively. A longitudinal analysis of patients (n = 17) after a series of blood collections demonstrated that a change in the CTC count correlated with the patient treatment response in most of the cases and was particularly useful for monitoring patients without elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels. Sequential CTC enumeration during treatment can supplement standard medical tests and benefit the management of patients with locally advanced or metastatic HCC, in particular for the AFP-low cases.

Predictors of response and survival in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with nivolumab: real-world experience.

Real-world predictors of the treatment efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are unknown. This retrospective study enrolled 87 consecutive patients with unresectable HCC from May 2017 to December 2019 at two hospitals. Of the 87 patients, 7, 9, 60, and 11 patients had Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages A, B, C, and D, respectively, and 45, 30, and 10 patients were Child-Pugh class A, B, and C, respectively. The median injection numbers of nivolumab and treatment duration were 6 (3-8) and 2.53 (1.47-4.23) months, respectively, and 64.4% of patients received combination therapy. Radiological imaging was not assessed for 25 patients. Objective response (OR) and disease control rates were 19.5% and 39.1%, respectively. A single tumor (odds ratio: 9.542, P = .015) and ≥20% decline in serum α-fetoprotein protein (AFP) levels within the first 3 months of treatment (defined as AFP response, odds ratio: 5.997, P = .042) were predictors of OR. Lack of macrovascular invasion, combination therapy, and AFP response were predictors of progression-free survival. A Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score of 0-2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.717, P = .004) and grade 1-2 immune-related adverse events (irAEs, HR: 2.217, P = .049) were predictors of overall survival (OS) in the entire cohort, and a CLIP score of 0-2 (HR: 3.257, P = .009) was a predictor of OS in evaluable patients. IrAEs ≥ grade 3 were noted in 14 patients, and three died as a result. Having a single tumor and AFP response were predictors of OR, and CLIP score was a predictor of OS.

Performance of Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Elastography for Staging Liver Fibrosis in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C After Viral Eradication.

BACKGROUND: Data on noninvasive liver fibrosis staging after viral eradication are unclear. This histology-based study validated the performance of liver stiffness (LS) measurements after viral eradication. METHODS: Consecutive participants with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) who received concomitant LS measurements through acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) elastography and percutaneous liver biopsy were prospectively screened and analyzed. RESULTS: Of the 644 patients, 521 (80.9%) underwent a biopsy at treatment baseline, and the remaining 123 (19.1%) underwent a biopsy at 3 years (median; interquartile range, 0.1) after the sustained virological response (SVR) to pegylated interferon-based and direct-acting antiviral treatments. The proportions of histological fibrosis stages did not differ significantly between the pretreatment and post-SVR groups (P = .0615). However, the LS values differed significantly (P < .0001). The median LS values (presented as shear wave velocities in meters per second) were 1.51 (0.92) for the pretreatment group and 1.22 (0.77) for the post-SVR group. The cutoffs (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, obtained using the bootstrap method) to dichotomize between METAVIR fibrosis stage F1 versus stages F2-F4, F1-F2 versus F3-F4, and F1-F3 versus F4 were 1.47 (0.8333, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7981-0.8663), 1.81 (0.8763, 95% CI 0.8376-0.9107), and 1.86 (0.8811, 95% CI 0.8378-0.9179) in the pretreatment group, respectively, and 1.22 (0.7872, 95% CI 0.7001-0.8624), 1.59 (0.8808, 95% CI 0.8034-0.9422), and 1.75 (0.9018, 95% CI 0.8201-0.9644) in the post-SVR group, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of LS measurements through ARFI elastography is promising to determine the liver fibrosis stage on necroinflammation-resolved histology in CHC after viral eradication.

Chinese herbal medicine therapy and the risk of overall mortality for patients with liver cancer who underwent surgical resection in Taiwan.

Liver cancer is the sixth most diagnosed cancer globally, and the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths. Surgical resection is a procedure performed to remove cancerous tissue from the liver. Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) is a complementary natural medicine system widely used for treatment of hepatic diseases in Asian countries. We investigated the effects on overall mortality of long-term use of CHM for treatment of patients with liver cancer who underwent surgical resection at the Taiwan Center for Medicine. We identified 1504 patients with liver cancer who underwent surgical resection. Of these patients, 210 CHM users and 210 non-users were selected, and were matched for age, gender, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy prior to CHM treatment. Chi-squared test, Cox proportional hazard modeling, the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, association rule mining, and network analysis were used as statistical methods in this study. CHM users showed a significantly lower risk of overall mortality than non-users (HR: 0.57, 95% CI = 0.40-0.81; p =  0.0025; multivariate Cox proportional hazard model), and a lower 10-year cumulative incidence of overall mortality (p <  0.05; log rank test). Association rule mining and network analysis suggested that Bai-Hua-She-She-Cao, Ban-Zhi-Lian, and Suan-Zao-Ren were the most effective CHMs. Therefore, we concluded that use of CHM as adjunctive therapy may reduce overall mortality in patients with liver cancer who underwent surgical resection. A list of herbal medicines with potential as future therapeutic interventions to prolong the life-span of patients with liver cancer who underwent surgical resection is also provided.

Rapid decline of noninvasive fibrosis index values in patients with hepatitis C receiving treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents.

BACKGROUND: Studies on temporal changes in noninvasive fibrosis indices and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) treated with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) are limited. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled consecutive patients with CHC who had received DAAs. RESULTS: In total, we recruited 395 consecutive patients, of which 388 (98.2%) achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) at 12 weeks after therapy. In patients who received DAA therapy and achieved SVR 12 weeks after therapy (n = 388), the median aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI) value decreased from 1.19 (0.62-2.44) at baseline to 0.50 (0.32-0.95), 0.51 (0.31-0.92), 0.48 (0.31-0.88), and 0.52 (0.33-0.92) at week 2, week 4, end of therapy, and PW12, respectively (all P < 0.001). The median FIB-4 value decreased from 2.88 (1.56-5.60) at baseline to 2.10 (1.30-3.65), 2.15 (1.30-3.65), 2.11 (1.37-3.76), and 2.22 (1.45-3.82) at week 2, week 4, end of therapy, and PW12, respectively (all P < 0.001). The median alanine aminotransferase level significantly decreased from week 2 until PW12 (all P < 0.001). The platelet count significantly increased from 2 weeks after DAA therapy initiation until PW12 (all P < 0.001); however, the magnitude of changes in the platelet count was low. In patients with paired LSMs obtained using acoustic radiation force impulse elastography at baseline and PW12 (n = 199), the median LSM decreased from 1.78 (1.25-2.30) m/s at baseline to 1.38 (1.14-1.88) m/s at PW12 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Noninvasive fibrosis indices, namely APRI and FIB-4, exhibited a rapid and sustained decline from week 2 until PW12 in patients with CHC who achieved SVR to DAA therapy. The rapid decline in APRI and FIB-4 values might mainly result from improvement in necroinflammation.

Stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma risk through modified FIB-4 index in chronic hepatitis B patients on entecavir therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Noninvasive fibrosis indices can predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Modified FIB-4 (mFIB-4) is a promising noninvasive index for predicting liver fibrosis. To investigate the predictive accuracy of several extant noninvasive fibrosis indices, including mFIB-4, for HCC incidence in CHB patients receiving long-term entecavir therapy. METHODS: We enrolled 1325 nucleos(t)ide analogue-naïve CHB patients (noncirrhotic 844; cirrhotic 481) treated with entecavir. Baseline clinical features and fibrosis indices were collected and evaluated for predicting HCC risk through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the 1325 patients, 105 (7.9%) developed HCC during a median follow-up period of 4.1 years. Age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.039; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.020-1.059; P < 0.0001), diabetes mellitus (DM) (HR, 1.902; 95% CI, 1.185-3.052; P = 0.0077), and mFIB-4 (HR, 4.619; 95% CI, 1.810-11.789; P = 0.0014) were independent predictors of HCC in all patients (mFIB-4 ≥ 1.5 for the noncirrhotic cohort; DM and mFIB-4 ≥ 2.0 for the cirrhotic cohort). A combination of mFIB-4 and the DM status stratified the cumulative risk of HCC into three subgroups in all patients (high: mFIB-4 ≥ 1.5/DM; intermediate: mFIB-4 ≥ 1.5/non-DM; and low: mFIB-4 < 1.5, P < 0.0001) and in the cirrhotic cohort (high: mFIB-4 ≥ 2.0/DM; intermediate: mFIB-4 ≥ 2.0/non-DM; and low: mFIB-4 < 2.0, P = 0.0007). An mFIB-4 cutoff value of 1.5 stratified the cumulative risk of HCC in the noncirrhotic cohort (P = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: The mFIB-4 index alone or in combination with DM is the optimal noninvasive predictor of HCC risk in CHB patients receiving entecavir therapy.

Cost-Effectiveness of Sorafenib Monotherapy and Selected Combination Therapy with Sorafenib in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sorafenib treatment in combination with other therapies versus sorafenib monotherapy among patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are enrolled in Taiwan's National Health Insurance. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to simulate treatment outcomes and direct medical costs of sorafenib combination therapy and monotherapy from the perspective of the healthcare payer in Taiwan. Both life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were used to measure treatment outcomes, and all costs were expressed in 2014 New Taiwan dollars (NT$). Model parameters were acquired primarily using data from population-based administrative databases: the Cancer Registry, National Health Insurance Research Database, and the Death Registry. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at three times the per capita gross domestic product at NT$2,133,930. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: For advanced HCC patients, sorafenib combined with other treatments might not be a cost-effective option when compared with sorafenib therapy alone. In the base-case analysis, combination treatment with sorafenib was estimated to increase costs by NT$434,788 compared with monotherapy, with a gain of 0.1595 QALYs. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was NT$2,725,943 per QALY gained. Results were sensitive to health utility values and monthly costs accrued in the progression-free survival state of the combination therapy group. CONCLUSIONS: Our evidence from Taiwan demonstrated that while sorafenib in combination with other therapeutic approaches might improve treatment outcome when compared with sorafenib monotherapy, its ICER exceeded the WTP threshold and was considered not cost-effective.

Changes in liver stiffness measurement using acoustic radiation force impulse elastography after antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: To compare on-treatment and off-treatment parameters acquired using acoustic radiation force impulse elastography, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). METHODS: Patients received therapies based on pegylated interferon or direct-acting antiviral agents. The changes in paired patient parameters, including liver stiffness (LS) values, the FIB-4 index, and APRI, from baseline to sustained virologic response (SVR) visit (24 weeks after the end of treatment) were compared. Multiple regression models were used to identify significant factors that explained the correlations with LS, FIB-4, and APRI values and SVR. RESULTS: A total of 256 patients were included, of which 219 (85.5%) achieved SVR. The paired LS values declined significantly from baseline to SVR visit in all groups and subgroups except the nonresponder subgroup (n = 10). Body mass index (P = 0.0062) and baseline LS (P < 0.0001) were identified as independent factors that explained the LS declines. Likewise, the baseline FIB-4 (P < 0.0001) and APRI (P < 0.0001) values independently explained the declines in the FIB-4 index and APRI, respectively. Moreover, interleukin-28B polymorphisms, baseline LS, and rapid virologic response were identified as independent correlates with SVR. CONCLUSIONS: Paired LS measurements in patients treated for CHC exhibited significant declines comparable to those in FIB-4 and APRI values. These declines may have correlated with the resolution of necroinflammation. Baseline LS values predicted SVR.

Does pyogenic liver abscess increase the risk of delayed-onset primary liver cancer?: Evidence from a nationwide cohort study.

Delayed-onset primary liver cancer (PLC) including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) in patients with pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) is not common. The relationship between PLA and delayed-onset PLC is unclear. We investigated the association in a nationwide cohort study.From Taiwan National Health Insurance claims data, a cohort of 17,531 patients with PLA was generated after excluding patients with a history of cancer (n = 2034) and those diagnosed with PLC (n = 572) and other cancers (n = 627) within 1 year of a diagnosis of PLA. An age-, sex-, index year-, and diabetes mellitus (DM)-matched control cohort of 70,124 persons without PLA was selected from the same dataset. Both cohorts were followed up until the end of 2011. The risk of PLC was estimated for both cohorts.The incidence of PLC was nearly 2-fold greater in the PLA group than in the control cohort (29.3 per 10,000 person-years vs. 16.2 per 10,000 person-years). The incidences of HCC and ICC were 1.5- (22.1 per 10,000 person-years vs. 15.0 per 10,000 person-years) and 11-fold greater (6.73 per 10,000 person-years vs. 0.62 per 10,000 person-years), respectively, in the PLA group than in the control cohort. The PLA cohort also had high risks of PLC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.56; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.35-1.81), HCC (aHR = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.15-1.57), and ICC (aHR = 6.94; 95% CI = 4.23-11.57).In conclusion, in this nationwide cohort study, PLA increased the risk of delayed-onset PLC.