Extramacular Drusen and Progression of Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Age Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report 30.

PURPOSE: To identify the prevalence of extramacular drusen and their role in the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: The study was conducted in 4168 eyes (2998 participants) with intermediate AMD in one or both eyes enrolled in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2), a 5-year multicenter study of nutritional supplements. METHODS: Baseline 3-field 30-degree color photographs were evaluated for drusen characteristics outside the macular grid, including size, area, and location. The characteristics of extramacular drusen were compared with those of drusen within the macula. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Progression rates to late AMD. RESULTS: Although extramacular drusen were observed in 3624 (86.9%) eyes, they represented a small area (< 0.5 mm2) in 50.3% of eyes, with only 17.5% exhibiting an area of > 1 disc area. Eyes with extramacular drusen exhibited larger macular drusen size and area than eyes without extramacular drusen (P < 0.001). Extramacular drusen were not associated with progression to late AMD. The hazard ratio adjusted for baseline age, sex, smoking, AMD severity level, and reticular pseudodrusen for 4043 eyes at risk of developing late AMD over 5 years was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-1.54; P = 0.27) for geographic atrophy and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.76-1.2; P = 0.7) for neovascular AMD. CONCLUSIONS: Extramacular drusen are commonly observed in eyes with AMD and are more frequent with an increasing drusen burden within the macula. In eyes with intermediate AMD, extramacular drusen do not confer additional risk to previously identified risk factors in progression to late AMD.

Long-term Outcomes of Adding Lutein/Zeaxanthin and ω-3 Fatty Acids to the AREDS Supplements on Age-Related Macular Degeneration Progression: AREDS2 Report 28.

Importance: After the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) study, the beta carotene component was replaced by lutein/zeaxanthin for the development of the revised AREDS supplement. However, it is unknown if the increased risk of lung cancer observed in those assigned beta carotene persists beyond the conclusion of the AREDS2 trial and if there is a benefit of adding lutein/zeaxanthin to the original AREDS supplement that can be observed with long-term follow-up. Objective: To assess 10-year risk of developing lung cancer and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a multicenter epidemiologic follow-up study of the AREDS2 clinical trial, conducted from December 1, 2012, to December 31, 2018. Included in the analysis were participants with bilateral or unilateral intermediate AMD for an additional 5 years after clinical trial. Eyes/participants were censored at the time of late AMD development, death, or loss to follow-up. Data were analyzed from November 2019 to March 2022. Interventions: During the clinical trial, participants were randomly assigned primarily to lutein/zeaxanthin and/or ω-3 fatty acids or placebo and secondarily to no beta carotene vs beta carotene and low vs high doses of zinc. In the epidemiologic follow-up study, all participants received AREDS2 supplements with lutein/zeaxanthin, vitamins C and E, and zinc plus copper. Outcomes were assessed at 6-month telephone calls. Analyses of AMD progression and lung cancer development were conducted using proportional hazards regression and logistic regression, respectively. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported lung cancer and late AMD validated with medical records. Results: This study included 3882 participants (mean [SD] baseline age, 72.0 [7.7] years; 2240 women [57.7%]) and 6351 eyes. At 10 years, the odds ratio (OR) of having lung cancer was 1.82 (95% CI, 1.06-3.12; P = .02) for those randomly assigned to beta carotene and 1.15 (95% CI, 0.79-1.66; P = .46) for lutein/zeaxanthin. The hazard ratio (HR) for progression to late AMD comparing lutein/zeaxanthin with no lutein/zeaxanthin was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.84-0.99; P = .02) and comparing ω-3 fatty acids with no ω-3 fatty acids was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.93-1.09; P = .91). When the lutein/zeaxanthin main effects analysis was restricted to those randomly assigned to beta carotene, the HR was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.92; P = .002). A direct analysis of lutein/zeaxanthin vs beta carotene showed the HR for late AMD was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.73-0.98; P = .02). The HR for low vs high zinc was 1.04 (95% CI, 0.94-1.14; P = .49), and the HR for no beta carotene vs beta carotene was 1.04 (95% CI, 0.94-1.15; P = .48). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this long-term epidemiologic follow-up study of the AREDS2 cohort suggest that lutein/zeaxanthin was an appropriate replacement for beta carotene in AREDS2 supplements. Beta carotene usage nearly doubled the risk of lung cancer, whereas there was no statistically significant increased risk with lutein/zeaxanthin. When compared with beta carotene, lutein/zeaxanthin had a potential beneficial association with late AMD progression.

Reticular Pseudodrusen: The Third Macular Risk Feature for Progression to Late Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report 30.

PURPOSE: To analyze reticular pseudodrusen (RPD) as an independent risk factor for progression to late age-related macular degeneration (AMD), alongside traditional macular risk factors (soft drusen and pigmentary abnormalities) considered simultaneously. DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of 2 clinical trial cohorts: Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) and AREDS2. PARTICIPANTS: Eyes with no late AMD at baseline in AREDS (6959 eyes, 3780 participants) and AREDS2 (3355 eyes, 2056 participants). METHODS: Color fundus photographs (CFPs) from annual visits were graded for soft drusen, pigmentary abnormalities, and late AMD. Presence of RPD was from grading of fundus autofluorescence images (AREDS2) and deep learning grading of CFPs (AREDS). Proportional hazards regression analyses were performed, considering AREDS AMD severity scales (modified simplified severity scale [person] and 9-step scale [eye]) and RPD presence simultaneously. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Progression to late AMD, geographic atrophy (GA), and neovascular AMD. RESULTS: In AREDS, for late AMD analyses by person, in a model considering the simplified severity scale simultaneously, RPD presence was associated with a higher risk of progression: hazard ratio (HR), 2.15 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-2.64). However, the risk associated with RPD presence differed at different severity scale levels: HR, 3.23 (95% CI, 1.60-6.51), HR, 3.81 (95% CI, 2.38-6.10), HR, 2.28 (95% CI, 1.59-3.27), and HR, 1.64 (95% CI, 1.20-2.24), at levels 0-1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Considering the 9-step scale (by eye), RPD presence was associated with higher risk: HR, 2.54 (95% CI, 2.07-3.13). The HRs were 5.11 (95% CI, 3.93-6.66) at levels 1-6 and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.43-2.22) at levels 7 and 8. In AREDS2, by person, RPD presence was not associated with higher risk: HR, 1.18 (95% CI, 0.90-1.56); by eye, it was HR, 1.57 (95% CI, 1.31-1.89). In both cohorts, RPD presence carried a higher risk for GA than neovascular AMD. CONCLUSIONS: Reticular pseudodrusen represent an important risk factor for progression to late AMD, particularly GA. However, the added risk varies markedly by severity level, with highly increased risk at lower/moderate levels and less increased risk at higher levels. Reticular pseudodrusen status should be included in updated AMD classification systems, risk calculators, and clinical trials.

Cataract Surgery and the Risk of Developing Late Age-Related Macular Degeneration: The Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report Number 27.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the risk of developing late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) after incident cataract surgery. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study within a randomized controlled clinical trial of oral supplementation for the treatment of AMD, the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2). PARTICIPANTS: AREDS2 participants aged 50 to 85 years with bilateral large drusen or unilateral late AMD. METHODS: In eyes free of cataract surgery and late AMD at baseline, 2 groups were compared for incident late AMD: (1) eyes that received cataract surgery after the baseline visit and before any evidence of late AMD and (2) eyes that remained phakic until study completion. Eyes with at least 2 years of follow-up after cataract surgery were included in the analysis. We used Cox regression models, matched-pairs analysis, and logistic regression models that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, education, study treatment group, and AMD severity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Late AMD was defined as the presence of geographic atrophy or neovascular AMD detected on annual stereoscopic fundus photographs or as documented by medical records, including intravitreous injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor medication. RESULTS: A total of 1767 eligible eyes (1195 participants) received cataract surgery; 1981 eyes (1524 participants) developed late AMD during a mean (range) follow-up of 9 (1-12) years. The Cox regression model showed no increased risk of developing late AMD after cataract surgery: hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81-1.13 (P = 0.60) for right eyes and hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.89-1.25 (P = 0.56) for left eyes. Of the matched pairs, late AMD was identified in 408 eyes that received cataract surgery and in 429 phakic controls: odds ratio (OR) 0.92 (95% CI, 0.77-1.10; P = 0.34). The risk of late AMD after cataract surgery from the logistic regression model was not statistically significant (risk ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.56-1.49; P = 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: Cataract surgery did not increase the risk of developing late AMD among AREDS2 participants with up to 10 years of follow-up. This study provides data for counseling AMD patients who might benefit from cataract surgery.

The Use of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Sickle Cell Disease: A Critical Review of the Literature.

Novel interventions for sickle cell disease (SCD) bring hope to patients, yet concern about the associated economic costs exists. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) uses standardized methods, with robust underpinnings in health economics, to estimate the value of these interventions compared with usual care. However, because of the complexity and lifetime trajectory of SCD, CEAs are challenging to conduct. The objectives of this rapid review were to summarize the main characteristics, components, and results of published CEAs of existing interventions for SCD, identify research gaps, and provide directions for future analyses. We identified records through searches of bibliographic databases, from reference lists of relevant review articles, and through consultation with experts. A total of 13 CEAs met our inclusion criteria and were qualitatively synthesized. These evaluated blood transfusions (n = 2), hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (n = 1), pharmaceuticals (n = 2), hypothetical cell or genetic therapy (n = 1), screening programs (n = 4), and interventions for SCD treatment complications (n = 3). A limited number of potential SCD and treatment complications were evaluated. No study adopted a societal perspective in the base case, six studies examined lifetime cost-effectiveness, seven studies employed a Markov or discrete-event simulation model, and eight studies used an outcome metric that captured both quality and length of life. To better compare the value of emerging and current therapies, future CEAs should adopt a societal perspective incorporating both medical and nonmedical costs, comprehensively model SCD complexity using robust health economic simulation models over the patient's entire lifespan, and capture the intervention's effect on both survival and quality of life.

Cluster Analysis and Genotype-Phenotype Assessment of Geographic Atrophy in Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report 25.

PURPOSE: To explore whether phenotypes in geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to age-related macular degeneration can be separated into 2 or more partially distinct subtypes and if these have different genetic associations. This is important because distinct GA subtypes associated with different genetic factors might require customized therapeutic approaches. DESIGN: Cluster analysis of participants within a controlled clinical trial, followed by assessment of phenotype-genotype associations. PARTICIPANTS: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 participants with incident GA during study follow-up: 598 eyes of 598 participants. METHODS: Phenotypic features from reading center grading of fundus photographs were subjected to cluster analysis, by k-means and hierarchical methods, in cross-sectional analyses (using 15 phenotypic features) and longitudinal analyses (using 14 phenotypic features). The identified clusters were compared by 4 pathway-based genetic risk scores (complement, extracellular matrix, lipid, and ARMS2). The analyses were repeated in reverse (clustering by genotype and comparison by phenotype). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Characteristics and quality of cluster solutions, assessed by Calinski-Harabasz scores, unexplained variance, and consistency; and genotype-phenotype associations, assessed by t test. RESULTS: In cross-sectional phenotypic analyses, k-means identified 2 clusters (labeled A and B), whereas hierarchical clustering identified 4 clusters (C-F); cluster membership differed principally by GA configuration but in few other ways. In longitudinal phenotypic analyses, k-means identified 2 clusters (G and H) that differed principally by smoking status but in few other ways. These 3 sets of cluster divisions were not similar to each other (r ≤ 0.20). Despite adequate power, pairwise cluster comparison by the 4 genetic risk scores demonstrated no significant differences (P > 0.05 for all). In clustering by genotype, k-means identified 2 clusters (I and J). These differed principally at ARMS2, but no significant genotype-phenotype associations were observed (P > 0.05 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Phenotypic clustering resulted in GA subtypes defined principally by GA configuration in cross-sectional analyses, but these were not replicated in longitudinal analyses. These negative findings, together with the absence of significant phenotype-genotype associations, indicate that GA phenotypes may vary continuously across a spectrum, rather than consisting of distinct subtypes that arise from separate genetic causes.

Fundus Autofluorescence Imaging in Macular Telangiectasia Type 2: MacTel Study Report Number 9.

PURPOSE: To investigate the role of fundus autofluorescence (FAF) imaging in the diagnosis of macular telangiectasia type 2 (MacTel) and to describe disease-associated FAF patterns and their origin. DESIGN: Cross-sectional multicenter study METHODS: FAF images were collected from the multicenter MacTel Natural History Observation and Registry Study. In a first qualitative approach, common FAF phenotypes were defined and correlated with multimodal imaging. We then evaluated how many eyes showed FAF changes, and temporal vs nasal asymmetry of FAF changes was graded. Finally, 100 eyes of MacTel patients and 100 control eyes (50 normal eyes and 50 eyes with other macular diseases) were combined and 2 masked graders assessed the presence of MacTel based on FAF images alone. RESULTS: The study included 807 eyes of 420 patients (33 eyes were excluded owing to poor image quality). Loss of macular pigment, cystoid spaces, pigment plaques, neovascular membranes, and ectatic vascular changes commonly caused characteristic changes on FAF images. All MacTel patients had macular FAF changes in at least 1 eye. In 95% of eyes, these changes were more pronounced temporally than nasally. Common FAF patterns were increased (60%) and mixed/decreased FAF (38%) and/or visibility of vascular changes such as blunted vessels or ectatic capillaries (79%). Based on those features, high diagnostic performance was achieved for detection of the disease based on FAF alone (Youden index up to 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates that MacTel is consistently associated with disease-specific changes on FAF imaging. Those changes are typically more pronounced in the temporal parafovea.

A Prospective Cohort Study to Evaluate the Impact of Diet, Exercise, and Lifestyle on Fertility: Design and Baseline Characteristics.

Diet, lifestyle, and psychosocial factors might influence fertility for men and women, although evidence is mixed, and couple-based approaches are needed for assessing associations with reproductive outcomes. The Impact of Diet, Exercise, and Lifestyle (IDEAL) on Fertility Study is a prospective cohort with contemporaneous detailed follow-up of female partners of men enrolled in the Folic Acid and Zinc Supplementation Trial studying couples seeking infertility treatment (2016-2019). Follow-up of men continued for 6 months, while female partners were followed for 9 months while attempting pregnancy and throughout any resulting pregnancy (up to 18 months). Longitudinal data on diet, physical activity (including measurement via wearable device), sleep, and stress were captured at multiple study visits during this follow-up. A subset of women (IDEALplus) also completed daily journals and a body fat assessment via dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. IDEAL enrolled 920 women, and IDEALPlus enrolled 218. We demonstrated the ability to enroll women in a prospective cohort study contemporaneous to a partner-enrolled randomized trial. In combination with data collected on male partners, IDEAL data facilitates a couple-based approach to understanding associations between lifestyle factors and infertility treatment outcomes. We describe in detail the study design, recruitment, data collection, lessons learned, and baseline characteristics.

Visual Acuity Outcomes after Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Treatment for Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report Number 19.

PURPOSE: To analyze best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) outcomes after anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of participants enrolled in a clinical trial of oral supplements and receiving anti-VEGF therapy in routine clinical practice. PARTICIPANTS: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) participants (50-85 years of age) whose eyes met AREDS2 inclusion criteria at baseline (no late AMD, BCVA ≥20/100, no previous anti-VEGF injections) but received at least 1 anti-VEGF injection for incident neovascular AMD during follow-up. METHODS: Participants underwent refracted BCVA testing, ophthalmoscopic examination, and stereoscopic color fundus photography at baseline and annual study visits over 5 years. Self-reports of anti-VEGF injections (numbers, dates, and names of drug) were collected at baseline and annual study visits and during telephone calls every 6 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome measures were mean refracted BCVA and proportions of eyes with BCVA of 20/40 or better and 20/200 or worse. An exploratory outcome measure was the mean number of self-reported anti-VEGF injections. RESULTS: One thousand one hundred five eyes of 986 AREDS2 participants met the inclusion criteria; of these, 977 participants (99.1%) underwent at least 1 posttreatment visit. At the first and subsequent annual examinations after the first injection, mean refracted BCVAs were 68.0 letters (Snellen equivalent, 20/40), 66.1 letters, 64.7 letters, 63.2 letters, and 61.5 letters (Snellen equivalent, 20/60). Proportions of eyes with BCVA of 20/40 or better were 59.3%, 55.1%, 53.5%, 50.6%, and 49.7%, and those with BCVA of 20/200 or worse were 5.5%, 8.6%, 9.4%, 12.4%, and 14.4%. Mean annual numbers of self-reported anti-VEGF injections per eye were 2.9, 3.9, 3.3, 3.1, and 3.0. CONCLUSIONS: Refracted BCVA data were obtained in a clinical trial environment but were related to anti-VEGF treatment administered in normal clinical practice. Visual outcomes declined slowly with increased follow-up time: mean BCVA decreased by approximately 1.5 to 2 letters per year. At 5 years, half of eyes achieved BCVA of 20/40 or better, but approximately one sixth showed BCVA of 20/200 or worse. These data may be useful in assessing the long-term effects of anti-VEGF therapy.

Prevalence, Risk, and Genetic Association of Reticular Pseudodrusen in Age-related Macular Degeneration: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report 21.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence of reticular pseudodrusen (RPD) in eyes with age-related macular degeneration (AMD), assess the role of RPD as an independent risk factor for late AMD development, and evaluate genetic association with RPD. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Participants with intermediate AMD in 1 or both eyes enrolled in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2), a 5-year multicenter study of nutritional supplement. METHODS: Fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images from a subset of AREDS2 participants were evaluated at annual visits for presence of RPD. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms-rs10490924 (ARMS2), rs1061170 (CFH), rs2230199 (C3), rs116503776 and rs114254831 (C2/CFB), and rs943080 (VEGF-A)-and the genetic risk score (GRS) were assessed for association with RPD. Development of late AMD, defined as geographic atrophy (GA) or neovascular AMD (NVAMD), was identified. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of RPD, odds ratio (OR) of late AMD development, and genetic associations of RPD. RESULTS: The FAF images were evaluated for 5021 eyes (2516 participants). Reticular pseudodrusen were seen in 1186 eyes (24% of eyes, 29% of participants). Prevalence of RPD varied with baseline AREDS AMD severity level: 6% in early AMD (n = 458), 26% in intermediate AMD (n = 2606), 36% in GA (n = 682), and 19% in NVAMD (n = 1246). Mean age of participants with RPD was 79 years (standard deviation [SD], 7) and 75 years (SD, 8) in those without RPD (P < 0.0001). Reticular pseudodrusen were more frequent in female participants (65% RPD vs. 53% no RPD). Odds ratio adjusted for baseline age, gender, race, educational status, smoking, and AMD severity level for 1710 eyes at risk of developing late AMD at the next annual visit was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80-3.24; P < 0.001) for GA and 1.21 (95% CI, 0.87-1.7; P = 0.26) for NVAMD. Presence of RPD was significantly associated with higher GRS (P < 0.0001) and ARMS2 risk alleles (P < 0.0001) and, at a nominal level, with C3 risk alleles (P = 0.04) and CFH risk alleles (P = 0.048 for homozygotes). CONCLUSIONS: Participants with RPD have an increased risk of progression to GA but not NVAMD. ARMS2 risk alleles and higher GRS were associated with the presence of RPD. This study suggests that RPD are an important risk marker and should be included in classification systems used for patient prognosis.

No CFH or ARMS2 Interaction with Omega-3 Fatty Acids, Low versus High Zinc, or ß-Carotene versus Lutein and Zeaxanthin on Progression of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report No. 18.

PURPOSE: To assess whether genotypes at 2 major loci associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD), complement factor H (CFH), or age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 (ARMS2), modify the response to oral nutrients for the treatment of AMD in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2). DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of a randomized trial. PARTICIPANTS: White AREDS2 participants. METHODS: AREDS2 participants (n = 4203) with bilateral large drusen or late AMD in 1 eye were assigned randomly to lutein and zeaxanthin, omega-3 fatty acids, both, or placebo, and most also received the AREDS supplements. A secondary randomization assessed modified AREDS supplements in 4 treatment arms: lower zinc dosage, omission of ß-carotene, both, or no modification. To evaluate the progression to late AMD, fundus photographs were obtained at baseline and annual study visits, and history of treatment for late AMD was obtained at study visits and 6-month interim telephone calls. Participants were genotyped for the single-nucleotide polymorphisms rs1061170 in CFH and rs10490924 in ARMS2. Bivariate frailty models using both eyes were conducted, including a gene-supplement interaction term and adjusting for age, gender, level of education, and smoking status. The main treatment effects, as well as the direct comparison between lutein plus zeaxanthin and ß-carotene, were assessed for genotype interaction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The interaction between genotype and the response to AREDS2 supplements regarding progression to late AMD, any geographic atrophy (GA), and neovascular AMD. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 2775 eyes without baseline late AMD (1684 participants). The participants (mean age ± standard deviation, 72.1±7.7 years; 58.5% female) were followed up for a median of 5 years. The ARMS2 risk allele was associated significantly with progression to late AMD and neovascular AMD (P = 2.40 × 10-5 and P = 0.002, respectively), but not any GA (P = 0.097). The CFH risk allele was not associated with AMD progression. Genotype did not modify significantly the response to any of the AREDS2 supplements. CONCLUSIONS: CFH and ARMS2 risk alleles do not modify the response to the AREDS2 nutrient supplements with respect to the progression to late AMD (GA and neovascular AMD).

Progression of Geographic Atrophy in Age-related Macular Degeneration: AREDS2 Report Number 16.

PURPOSE: To analyze the prevalence, incidence, and clinical characteristics of eyes with geographic atrophy (GA) in age-related macular degeneration (AMD), including clinical and genetic factors affecting enlargement. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study within a controlled clinical trial. PARTICIPANTS: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) participants, aged 50-85 years. METHODS: Baseline and annual stereoscopic color fundus photographs were evaluated for GA presence and area. Analyses included GA prevalence and incidence rates, Kaplan-Meier rates, mixed-model regression, and multivariable analysis of the square root of GA, area adjusted for covariates, including clinical/imaging characteristics and genotype. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Presence or development of GA; (2) change in the square root of GA area over time. RESULTS: At baseline, 517 eyes (6.2%) of 411 participants (9.8%) had pre-existing GA (without neovascular AMD), with the following characteristics: 33% central, 67% noncentral; and the following configurations: 36% small, 26% solid/unifocal, 24% multifocal, 9% horseshoe/ring, and 6% indeterminate. Of the remaining 6530 eyes at risk, 1099 eyes (17.3%) of 883 participants developed incident GA without prior neovascular disease during mean follow-up of 4.4 years. The Kaplan-Meier rate of incident GA was 19% of eyes at 5 years. In eyes with incident GA, 4-year risk of subsequent neovascular AMD was 29%. In eyes with incident noncentral GA, 4-year risk of central involvement was 57%. GA enlargement rate (following square root transformation) was similar in eyes with pre-existing GA (0.29 mm/year; 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.30) and incident GA (0.28 mm/year; 0.27-0.30). In the combined group, GA enlargement was significantly faster with noncentrality, multifocality, intermediate baseline size, and bilateral GA (P < 0.0001 for interaction in each case) but not with AREDS2 treatment assignment (P = 0.33) or smoking status (P = 0.05). Enlargement was significantly faster with ARMS2 risk (P < 0.0001), C3 non-risk (P = 0.0002), and APOE non-risk (P = 0.001) genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of AREDS2 data on natural history of GA provide representative data on GA evolution and enlargement. GA enlargement, which was influenced by lesion features, was relentless, resulting in rapid central vision loss. The genetic variants associated with faster enlargement were partially distinct from those associated with risk of incident GA. These findings are relevant to further investigations of GA pathogenesis and clinical trial planning.

Genome-wide analysis of disease progression in age-related macular degeneration.

Family- and population-based genetic studies have successfully identified multiple disease-susceptibility loci for Age-related macular degeneration (AMD), one of the first batch and most successful examples of genome-wide association study. However, most genetic studies to date have focused on case-control studies of late AMD (choroidal neovascularization or geographic atrophy). The genetic influences on disease progression are largely unexplored. We assembled unique resources to perform a genome-wide bivariate time-to-event analysis to test for association of time-to-late-AMD with ∼9 million variants on 2721 Caucasians from a large multi-center randomized clinical trial, the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. To our knowledge, this is the first genome-wide association study of disease progression (bivariate survival outcome) in AMD genetic studies, thus providing novel insights to AMD genetics. We used a robust Cox proportional hazards model to appropriately account for between-eye correlation when analyzing the progression time in the two eyes of each participant. We identified four previously reported susceptibility loci showing genome-wide significant association with AMD progression: ARMS2-HTRA1 (P = 8.1 × 10-43), CFH (P = 3.5 × 10-37), C2-CFB-SKIV2L (P = 8.1 × 10-10) and C3 (P = 1.2 × 10-9). Furthermore, we detected association of rs58978565 near TNR (P = 2.3 × 10-8), rs28368872 near ATF7IP2 (P = 2.9 × 10-8) and rs142450006 near MMP9 (P = 0.0006) with progression to choroidal neovascularization but not geographic atrophy. Secondary analysis limited to 34 reported risk variants revealed that LIPC and CTRB2-CTRB1 were also associated with AMD progression (P < 0.0015). Our genome-wide analysis thus expands the genetics in both development and progression of AMD and should assist in early identification of high risk individuals.

Association of Mortality with Ocular Diseases and Visual Impairment in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report Number 13.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the association of mortality with visual acuity (VA) impairment, age-related macular degeneration (AMD), and cataract surgery. DESIGN: Cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Participants with at least intermediate AMD enrolled in a randomized controlled clinical trial of lutein/zeaxanthin and/or omega-3 fatty acids, the Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2), for treatment of AMD and cataract. METHODS: Baseline and annual eye examinations included best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) assessments, slit-lamp examinations, and stereoscopic fundus photographs that were centrally graded for development of late AMD (central geographic atrophy or neovascular AMD) or pseudophakia. Cause-specific mortality was determined on the basis of the International Classification of Diseases 9th or 10th Revision codes. Risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality was assessed with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, AMD severity, VA, history of cataract surgery, and assigned AREDS2 study treatment. Analyses included baseline covariates: race, education, smoking status, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: During follow-up (median 5 years), 368 (9%) of the 4203 AREDS2 participants died. Participants with neovascular AMD in 1 eye at baseline had a statistically significant increased risk for mortality compared with participants with no or few drusen (hazard ratio [HR], 1.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-2.01; P < 0.001). Poorer survival was associated with bilateral cataract surgery before enrollment compared with baseline bilateral phakia (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.29-2.07; P < 0.001) and with BCVA of less than 20/40 compared with participants with 20/40 or better (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.06-2.30; P = 0.024), adjusted for age, sex, and statistically significant covariates. Participants who received antivascular endothelial growth factor therapies for neovascular AMD had decreased mortality compared with those who did not (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.88; P = 0.002). The association between all-cause mortality and AREDS2 treatment whether assessing the main or individual treatment effect was not significantly different (omega-3 fatty acids main effect HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.96-1.45; P = 0.12; lutein/zeaxanthin main effect HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.85-1.28; P = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: In AREDS2, the presence of late AMD, bilateral cataract surgery, and VA less than 20/40 was associated with decreased survival. However, oral supplementation with omega-3 fatty acids, lutein plus zeaxanthin, zinc, or beta-carotene had no statistically significant impact on mortality.

Potential Effects of Hormone Therapy in Type 2 Idiopathic Macular Telangiectasia.

PURPOSE: To investigate the influence of hormone therapy with tamoxifen or estrogens on morphological changes in macular telangiectasia (MacTel) type 2 patients as revealed clinically in multiple imaging modalities. METHODS: Patients with a history of tamoxifen or estrogen use were selected from the cohort of the MacTel Study. A race-, age- and best-corrected visual acuity-matched group of MacTel participants not under hormone therapy served as the comparison group. The frequencies of typical features of the MacTel phenotype apparent in color fundus, red-free, fluorescein angiographic and optical coherence tomographic images were graded and analyzed statistically. RESULTS: Thirty-nine MacTel patients were included in the analyses, of whom 13 were receiving tamoxifen, 13 estrogens and 13 patients no hormone treatment. Patients treated with estrogens showed significantly fewer breaks in the ellipsoid zone on optical coherence tomography (7 eyes, 29.1%, vs. tamoxifen: 14 eyes, 53.8%, and vs. controls: 14 eyes, 53.8%, p = 0.04 in both analyses, Fisher exact test). Retinal crystalline deposits were significantly more frequent in patients receiving estrogens (12 eyes, 16.2%, vs. 2 eyes, 2.7%, p = 0.003, Fisher exact test). No significant between-group differences were apparent with regard to other features of the phenotype (extent of retinal low reflective spaces, late hyperfluorescence on fluorescein angiography or retinal thickness). CONCLUSIONS: Tamoxifen treatment does not seem to accentuate structural changes in patients with MacTel type 2. Treatment with estrogens may exhibit a neuroprotective effect as suggested by the decreased frequency of ellipsoid zone breaks in corresponding patients, although corroborative studies are warranted to confirm these exploratory data.

Optical Coherence Tomography Predictors of Risk for Progression to Non-Neovascular Atrophic Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PURPOSE: Appearance of geographic atrophy (GA) on color photography (CP) is preceded by specific features on spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD OCT). We aimed to build SD OCT-based risk assessment models for 5-year new onset of GA and central GA on CP. DESIGN: Prospective, longitudinal study. PARTICIPANTS: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Ancillary SD OCT study participants with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) with bilateral large drusen or noncentral GA and at least 1 eye without advanced disease (n = 317). METHODS: For 1 eye per participant, qualitative and quantitative SD OCT variables were derived from standardized grading and semiautomated segmentation, respectively, at baseline. Up to 7 years later, annual outcomes were extracted and analyzed to fit multivariate logistic regression models and build a risk calculator. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: New onset of CP-visible GA and central GA. RESULTS: Over a follow-up median of 4.0 years and among 292 AMD eyes (without advanced disease at baseline) with complete outcome data, 46 (15.8%) developed central GA. Among 265 eyes without any GA on baseline CP, 70 (26.4%) developed CP-visible GA. Final multivariate models were adjusted for age. In the model for GA, the independent predicting SD OCT factors (P < 0.001-0.03) were: hyperreflective foci and retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) layer atrophy or absence, followed by choroid thickness in absence of subretinal drusenoid deposits, photoreceptor outer segment loss, RPE drusen complex volume, and RPE drusen complex abnormal thinning volume. For central GA, the factors (P < 0.001) were RPE drusen complex abnormal thinning volume, intraretinal fluid or cystoid spaces, hyperreflective foci, and RPE layer atrophy or absence. The models yielded a calculator that computes the probabilities of CP-visible, new-onset GA and central GA after 1 to 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: For AMD eyes with large drusen and no advanced disease, we built a novel risk assessment model-based on age and SD OCT segmentation, drusen characteristics, and retinal pathology-for progression to CP-visible GA over up to 5 years. This calculator may simplify SD OCT grading and with future validation has a promising role as a clinical prognostic tool.

Bivariate Analysis of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Progression Using Genetic Risk Scores.

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of blindness in the developed world. While many AMD susceptibility variants have been identified, their influence on AMD progression has not been elucidated. Using data from two large clinical trials, Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) and AREDS2, we evaluated the effects of 34 known risk variants on disease progression. In doing so, we calculated the eye-level time-to-late AMD and modeled them using a bivariate survival analysis approach, appropriately accounting for between-eye correlation. We then derived a genetic risk score (GRS) based on these 34 risk variants, and analyzed its effect on AMD progression. Finally, we used the AREDS data to fit prediction models of progression based on demographic and environmental factors, eye-level AMD severity scores and the GRS and tested the models using the AREDS2 cohort. We observed that GRS was significantly associated with AMD progression in both cohorts, with a stronger effect in AREDS than in AREDS2 (AREDS: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.34, P = 1.6 × 10-22; AREDS2: HR = 1.11, P = 2.1 × 10-4). For prediction of AMD progression, addition of GRS to the demographic/environmental risk factors considerably improved the prediction performance. However, when the baseline eye-level severity scores were included as the predictors, any other risk factors including the GRS only provided small additional predictive power. Our model for predicting the disease progression risk demonstrated satisfactory performance in both cohorts, and we recommend its use with baseline AMD severity scores plus baseline age, education level, and smoking status, either with or without GRS.

EFFECTIVENESS OF DIFFERENT MONITORING MODALITIES IN THE DETECTION OF NEOVASCULAR AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION: The Home Study, Report Number 3.

PURPOSE: To determine the effectiveness of different monitoring modalities to detect incident neovascularization associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: Secondary analyses compared the rates of detecting incident neovascular AMD in prescheduled office visits versus office visits triggered by monitoring device or by symptom realization in a randomized trial evaluating home telemonitoring device plus standard care (device arm) versus standard care alone. RESULTS: At prescheduled office visits, neovascular AMD was detected in 14/1927 visits (0.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4%-1.1%) and 14/1949 visits (0.7%, 95% CI: 0.3%-1.1%) in the device and standard care alone arms, respectively. Thirty-seven participants with neovascular AMD were detected in 318 office visits (11.6%, 95% CI: 8.1%-15.2%) triggered by device or symptom realization and 17 neovascular AMD in 65 office visits (26%, 95% CI: 15.5%-36.8%) triggered by symptom realization in the device and standard care alone arms, respectively. The home device strategy had a higher neovascular-AMD detection rate than prescheduled office visits (relative risk = 16.0 [95% CI: 8.8-29.3]). Neovascular AMD detected at triggered visits were associated with less vision loss from baseline in the device arm versus standard care alone arm (-3 letters vs. -11.5 letters, respectively, P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Telemonitoring may alter the management of patients with AMD and improve vision outcomes.

The Association of Statin Use with Age-Related Macular Degeneration Progression: The Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report Number 9.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the association of statin use with progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). DESIGN: Preplanned, prospective cohort study within a controlled clinical trial of oral supplementation for age-related eye diseases. PARTICIPANTS: Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) participants, aged 50 to 85 years. METHODS: Factors, including age, gender, smoking status, aspirin use, and history of diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, angina, and stroke-all known to be associated with statin use-were included in a logistic regression model to estimate propensity scores for each participant. Age-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, with and without propensity score matching, were performed to evaluate the association of statin use with progression to late AMD. Analyses adjusting for the competing risk of death were also performed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline and annual stereoscopic fundus photographs were assessed centrally by masked graders for the development of late AMD, either neovascular AMD or geographic atrophy (GA). RESULTS: Of the 3791 participants (2462 with bilateral large drusen and 1329 with unilateral late AMD at baseline), 1659 (43.8%) were statin users. The overall analysis, with no matching of propensity scores and no adjustment for death as a competing risk, showed that statin use was not associated with progression to late AMD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-1.41; P = 0.56). When matched for propensity scores and adjusted for death as a competing risk, the result was not statistically significant (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.55-1.20; P = 0.29). Furthermore, subgroup analyses of persons with or without late AMD at baseline and the various components of late AMD (neovascular AMD, central GA, or any GA) also showed no statistically significant association of statin use with progression to AMD. CONCLUSIONS: Statin use was not statistically significantly associated with progression to late AMD in the AREDS2 participants, and these findings are consistent with findings in the majority of previous studies. Statins have been demonstrated to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, but our data do not provide evidence of a beneficial effect on slowing AMD progression.