Risk Assessment and Prevention of Falls in Older Community-Dwelling Adults: A Review.

Importance: Falls are reported by more than 14 million US adults aged 65 years or older annually and can result in substantial morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditures. Observations: Falls result from age-related physiologic changes compounded by multiple intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors. Major modifiable risk factors among community-dwelling older adults include gait and balance disorders, orthostatic hypotension, sensory impairment, medications, and environmental hazards. Guidelines recommend that individuals who report a fall in the prior year, have concerns about falling, or have gait speed less than 0.8 to 1 m/s should receive fall prevention interventions. In a meta-analysis of 59 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in average-risk to high-risk populations, exercise interventions to reduce falls were associated with 655 falls per 1000 patient-years in intervention groups vs 850 falls per 1000 patient-years in nonexercise control groups (rate ratio [RR] for falls, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.71-0.83; risk ratio for number of people who fall, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.81-0.89; risk difference, 7.2%; 95% CI, 5.2%-9.1%), with most trials assessing balance and functional exercises. In a meta-analysis of 43 RCTs of interventions that systematically assessed and addressed multiple risk factors among individuals at high risk, multifactorial interventions were associated with 1784 falls per 1000 patient-years in intervention groups vs 2317 falls per 1000 patient-years in control groups (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.67-0.87) without a significant difference in the number of individuals who fell. Other interventions associated with decreased falls in meta-analysis of RCTs and quasi-randomized trials include surgery to remove cataracts (8 studies with 1834 patients; risk ratio [RR], 0.68; 95% CI, 0.48-0.96), multicomponent podiatry interventions (3 studies with 1358 patients; RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.99), and environmental modifications for individuals at high risk (12 studies with 5293 patients; RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61-0.91). Meta-analysis of RCTs of programs to stop medications associated with falls have not found a significant reduction, although deprescribing is a component of many successful multifactorial interventions. Conclusions and Relevance: More than 25% of older adults fall each year, and falls are the leading cause of injury-related death in persons aged 65 years or older. Functional exercises to improve leg strength and balance are recommended for fall prevention in average-risk to high-risk populations. Multifactorial risk reduction based on a systematic clinical assessment for modifiable risk factors may reduce fall rates among those at high risk.

Improving shared decision-making for osteoporosis pharmacologic therapy in nursing homes: a qualitative analysis.

Decisions on whether to use pharmacologic osteoporosis therapy in skilled nursing facility residents are complex and require shared decision-making. Residents, proxies, and staff desire individualized fracture risk estimates that consider advanced age, dementia, and mobility. They want options for reducing administration burden, monitoring instructions, and periodic reassessment of risk vs. benefit. PURPOSE: Decisions about pharmacologic osteoporosis treatment in nursing home (NH) residents with advanced age and multimorbidity are complex and should occur using shared decision-making. Our objective was to identify processes and tools to improve shared decision-making about pharmacologic osteoporosis treatment in NHs. METHODS: Qualitative analysis of data collected in three NHs from residents at high fracture risk, their proxies, nursing assistants, nurses, and one nurse practitioner (n = 28). Interviews explored participants' stories, attitudes, and experiences with oral osteoporosis medication management. Framework analysis was used to identify barriers to shared decision-making regarding osteoporosis treatment in this setting. RESULTS: Participants wanted individualized fracture risk estimates that consider immobility, advanced age, and comorbid dementia. Residents and proxies expected nursing staff to be involved in the decision-making; nursing staff wished to be informed on the relative risks vs. benefits of medications and given monitoring instructions. Two important competing demands to address during the shared decision-making process were burdensome administration requirements and polypharmacy. Participants wanted to reassess pharmacologic treatment appropriateness over time as clinical status or goals of care change. CONCLUSIONS: Shared decision-making using strategies and tools identified in this analysis may move osteoporosis pharmacologic treatment in NHs and for other older adults with multimorbidity from inappropriate inertia to appropriate prescribing or appropriate inaction.

Protocol for the models of primary osteoporosis screening in men (MOPS) cluster randomized trial.

Current guidelines recommend primary osteoporosis screening for at-risk men to reduce the morbidity, mortality, and cost associated with osteoporotic fractures. However, analyses in a national Veterans Health Administration cohort of over 4,000,000 men demonstrated that primary osteoporosis screening as it is currently operationalized does not benefit most older Veterans due to inefficient targeting and low subsequent treatment and adherence rates. The overall objective of this study is to determine whether a new model of primary osteoporosis screening reduces fracture risk compared to usual care. We are conducting a pragmatic group randomized trial of 38 primary care teams assigned to usual care or a Bone Health Service (BHS) screening model in which screening and adherence activities are managed by a centralized expert team. The study will: 1) compare the impact of the BHS model on patient-level outcomes strongly associated with fracture rates (eligible proportion screened, proportion meeting treatment criteria who receive osteoporosis medications, medication adherence, and femoral neck bone mineral density); 2) quantify the impact on provider and facility-level outcomes including change in DXA volume, change in metabolic bone disease clinic volume, and PACT provider time and satisfaction; and 3) estimate the impact on health system and policy outcomes using Markov models of screening program cost per quality adjusted life year based from health system and societal perspectives.

Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Mortality and Allocate Palliative Care for Older Patients With Hip Fracture.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate a machine learning model designed to predict mortality for Medicare beneficiaries aged >65 years treated for hip fracture in Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities (IRFs). DESIGN: Retrospective design/cohort analysis of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility-Patient Assessment Instrument data. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 17,140 persons admitted to Medicare-certified IRFs in 2015 following hospitalization for hip fracture. MEASURES: Patient characteristics include sociodemographic (age, gender, race, and social support) and clinical factors (functional status at admission, chronic conditions) and IRF length of stay. Outcomes were 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality. We trained and evaluated 2 classification models, logistic regression and a multilayer perceptron (MLP), to predict the probability of 30-day and 1-year mortality and evaluated the calibration, discrimination, and precision of the models. RESULTS: For 30-day mortality, MLP performed well [acc = 0.74, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.76, avg prec = 0.10, slope = 1.14] as did logistic regression (acc = 0.78, AUROC = 0.76, avg prec = 0.09, slope = 1.20). For 1-year mortality, the performances were similar for both MLP (acc = 0.68, AUROC = 0.75, avg prec = 0.32, slope = 0.96) and logistic regression (acc = 0.68, AUROC = 0.75, avg prec = 0.32, slope = 0.95). CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: A scoring system based on logistic regression may be more feasible to run in current electronic medical records. But MLP models may reduce cognitive burden and increase ability to calibrate to local data, yielding clinical specificity in mortality prediction so that palliative care resources may be allocated more effectively.

Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors Are Associated with Reduced Fracture Risk among Older Veterans with Dementia.

Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs) have been noted to increase bone density and quality in mice. Human studies are limited but suggest an association with improved bone healing after hip fracture. We examined the relationship between AChEI use and fracture risk in a national cohort of 360,015 male veterans aged 65 to 99 years with dementia but without prior fracture using Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital, Medicare, and pharmacy records from 2000 to 2010. Diagnosis of dementia, any clinical fracture (excluding facial and digital), comorbidities, and medications were identified using ICD-9 and drug class codes. Cox proportional hazard models considering AChEI use as a time-varying covariate and adjusting for fall and fracture risk factors compared the time-to-fracture in AChEI users versus non-AChEI users. Potential confounders included demographics (age, race, body mass index), comorbidities associated with fracture or falls (diabetes, lung disease, stroke, Parkinson's, seizures, etc.) and medications associated with fracture or falls (bisphosphonates, glucocorticoids, androgen deprivation therapy [ADT], proton pump inhibitors [PPIs], selective serotonin receptor inhibitors [SSRIs], etc.). Competing mortality risk was considered using the methods of Fine and Gray. To account for persistent effects on bone density or quality that might confer protection after stopping the medication, we completed a secondary analysis using the medication possession ratio (MPR) as a continuous variable in logistic regression models and also compared MPR increments of 10% to minimal/no use (MPR 0 to <0.10). Among older veterans with diagnosis of dementia, 20.1% suffered a fracture over an average of 4.6 years of follow-up. Overall, 42.3% of the cohort were prescribed AChEIs during the study period. The hazard of any fracture among AChEI users compared with those on other/no dementia medications was significantly lower in fully adjusted models (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.88). After considering competing mortality risk, fracture risk remained 18% lower in veterans using AChEIs (HR = 0.82; 95% CI 0.76-0.89). © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Delaying Elective Surgery in Geriatric Patients: An Opportunity for Preoperative Optimization.

Deciding whether to pursue elective surgery is a complex process for older adults. Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) can help refine estimates of benefits and risks, at times leading to a delay of surgery to optimize surgical readiness. We describe a cohort of geriatric patients who were evaluated in anticipation of elective abdominal surgery and whose procedures were delayed for any reason. Themes behind the reasons for delay are described, and a holistic framework to guide preoperative discussion is suggested.

Limited Osteoporosis Screening Effectiveness Due to Low Treatment Rates in a National Sample of Older Men.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) testing for osteoporosis and subsequent fractures in US male veterans without a previous fracture. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a propensity score-matched observational study using Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and Veterans Affairs (VA) data from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2010, with a mean follow-up time of 4.7 years (range, 0-10 years). Men receiving VA primary care aged 65 to 99 years without a previous fracture (N=2,539,812) were included. Men undergoing DXA testing were propensity score matched with untested controls in a 1:3 ratio, indicating the probability of DXA testing within the next year. Time to first clinical fracture was the primary outcome. Comorbidities, demographic characteristics, medications, DXA results, and osteoporosis treatment were defined using administrative data and natural language processing. A landmark analysis contingent on surviving to 12 months after screening was completed, accounting for competing risk of mortality. RESULTS: During follow-up of 153,311 men tested by DXA and 390,158 controls, 56,083 (10.3%) had sustained a fracture and 111,774 (20.6%) died. Overall, DXA testing was not associated with a decrease in fractures; conclusions are limited by unmeasured confounders and low medication initiation and adherence in those meeting treatment thresholds (12% of follow-up time). In contrast, DXA testing in prespecified subgroups was associated with a lower risk of fracture in comparison to the overall population who underwent DXA testing: androgen deprivation therapy (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% CI, 0.66-0.89), glucocorticoids (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72-0.84), age 80 years and older (HR, 0.85; 0.81-0.90), 1 or more VA guideline risk factors (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.95), and high Fracture Risk Assessment Tool using body mass index score (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.95). CONCLUSION: Current VA DXA testing practices are ineffective overall; interventions to improve treatment adherence are needed. Targeted DXA testing in higher-risk men was associated with a lower fracture risk.

Fracture Rates and Bone Density Among Postmenopausal Veteran and Non-Veteran Women From the Women's Health Initiative.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: Postmenopausal osteoporosis can impact quality-of-life even prefracture. To determine whether osteoporosis should be a greater concern in women Veterans versus non-Veterans, we compared fracture rates and bone mineral density (BMD) for Veterans and non-Veterans using Women's Health Initiative data. DESIGN AND METHODS: In this cohort study, participants were women aged 50-79 years. Outcomes were hip, central body, and limb fractures occurring during up to 19 years of follow-up and hip, spine, and whole body BMD collected three times over a 6-year period in a participant subsample. Covariates comprised risk factors for fracture, including fall history and other components of the World Health Organization Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to examine fracture rates for Veterans compared with non-Veterans. RESULTS: Of 161,808 women, 145,521 self-identified as Veteran (n = 3,719) or non-Veteran (n = 141,802). Baseline FRAX scores showed that Veterans had higher 10-year probabilities for any major fracture (13.3 vs 10.2; p < .01) and hip fracture (4.1 vs 2.2; p < .01) compared with non-Veterans. The age-adjusted rate of hip fracture per 1,000 person-years for Veterans was 3.3 versus 2.4 for non-Veterans (p < .01). After adjustment, the hazards ratio for hip fracture was 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.49) for Veterans versus non-Veterans. Hazards ratios at other anatomic sites did not differ by Veteran status. Mean BMD at baseline and at Years 3 and 6 also did not differ by Veteran status at any site. IMPLICATIONS: Women Veterans had an increased hip fracture rate not explained by differences in well-recognized fracture risk factors.

Subgroup variations in bone mineral density response to zoledronic acid after hip fracture.

Minimizing post-fracture bone loss is an important aspect of recovery from hip fracture, and determination of factors that affect bone mineral density (BMD) response to treatment after hip fracture may assist in the development of targeted therapeutic interventions. A post hoc analysis of the HORIZON Recurrent Fracture Trial was done to determine the effect of zoledronic acid (ZOL) on total hip (TH) and femoral neck (FN) BMD in subgroups with low-trauma hip fracture. A total of 2127 patients were randomized (1:1) to yearly infusions of ZOL 5 mg (n = 1065) or placebo (n = 1062) within 90 days of operation for low-trauma hip fracture. The 1486 patients with a baseline and at least one post-baseline BMD assessment at TH or FN (ZOL = 745, placebo = 741) were included in the analyses. Percentage change from baseline in TH and FN BMD was assessed at months 12 and 24 and compared across subgroups of hip fracture patients. Percentage change from baseline in TH and FN BMD at months 12 and 24 was greater (p < 0.05) in ZOL-treated patients compared with placebo in most subgroups. Treatment-by-subgroup interactions (p < 0.05) indicated that a greater effect on BMD was observed for TH BMD at month 12 in females, in patients in the lower tertile body mass index at baseline (≤22.6 kg/m(2) ), and in patients with baseline FN BMD T-score of ≤ -2.5; for FN BMD in patients who received ZOL for >6 weeks post-surgery; and for TH and FN BMD in patients with a history of one or more prior fractures. All interactions were limited to the first 12 months after treatment with none observed for the 24-month comparisons. (Clinical trial registration number NCT00046254.)

Antifracture efficacy and reduction of mortality in relation to timing of the first dose of zoledronic acid after hip fracture.

Annual infusions of zoledronic acid (5 mg) significantly reduced the risk of vertebral, hip, and nonvertebral fractures in a study of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and significantly reduced clinical fractures and all-cause mortality in another study of women and men who had recently undergone surgical repair of hip fracture. In this analysis, we examined whether timing of the first infusion of zoledronic acid study drug after hip fracture repair influenced the antifracture efficacy and mortality benefit observed in the study. A total of 2127 patients (1065 on active treatment and 1062 on placebo; mean age, 75 yr; 76% women and 24% men) were administered zoledronic acid or placebo within 90 days after surgical repair of an osteoporotic hip fracture and annually thereafter, with a median follow-up time of 1.9 yr. Median time to first dose after the incident hip fracture surgery was approximately 6 wk. Posthoc analyses were performed by dividing the study population into 2-wk intervals (calculated from time of first infusion in relation to surgical repair) to examine effects on BMD, fracture, and mortality. Analysis by 2-wk intervals showed a significant total hip BMD response and a consistent reduction of overall clinical fractures and mortality in patients receiving the first dose 2-wk or later after surgical repair. Clinical fracture subgroups (vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip) were also reduced, albeit with more variation and 95% CIs crossing 1 at most time points. We concluded that administration of zoledronic acid to patients suffering a low-trauma hip fracture 2 wk or later after surgical repair increases hip BMD, induces significant reductions in the risk of subsequent clinical vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures, and reduces mortality.

The HORIZON Recurrent Fracture Trial: design of a clinical trial in the prevention of subsequent fractures after low trauma hip fracture repair.

OBJECTIVE: To present the novel design of a trial testing the safety and efficacy of a yearly bisphosponate, zoledronic acid, in preventing new clinical fractures in patients with recent low trauma hip fracture repair. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Randomized, placebo-controlled, triple-blind study. One hundred and fifteen clinical centers worldwide are recruiting approximately 1714 subjects aged 50 years and over (no upper age limit, median age of enrolled subjects to date 79 years) who have undergone surgical repair of a low trauma hip fracture in the preceding 90 days. Patients will be assigned at random to an intervention group (5 mg zoledronic acid intravenously yearly) or a control group (placebo infusion yearly). Both groups receive a loading dose of Vitamin D2 or D3 IM or orally, followed by 800-1200 IU Vitamin D and 1000-1500 mg elemental calcium orally on a daily basis. Concomitant therapy with calcitonin, hormone replacement therapy, selective estrogen receptor modulators, tibolone, and external hip protectors are allowed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary endpoint is subsequent skeletal fractures as adjudicated by a clinical endpoints committee blinded to intervention status. Secondary outcomes include delayed hip fracture healing, changes in bone mineral density, and health resource utilization. Subjects will be recruited over a 3-4 year period and will be followed until 211 primary endpoints are accrued and adjudicated. CONCLUSIONS: This randomized clinical trial is novel among osteoporosis therapies as it (1). targets hip fracture patients, a previously understudied group, and (2). uses only clinically evident fractures as the primary outcome. Ethical and practical considerations in studying this frail population are discussed.