Binge drinking associated with mean temperature: a cross-sectional study among Mexican adults living in cities.

BACKGROUND: The association between environmental temperature and alcohol consumption has not been widely explored despite the potential that increasing temperatures could promote the consumption of alcoholic beverages and the alcohol-related burden of disease. We aimed to explore the association between temperature and binge drinking in Mexican adults from urban cities, overall, and by alcoholic beverage type. METHODS: Data on 10,552 adults ≥ 18 years was obtained from the 2016 National Survey on Drug, Alcohol, and Tobacco Consumption. The mean annual temperature at the municipality was obtained from the Mexican National Weather Service using monthly temperatures from 2015 to 2016. We analyzed binge drinking for all alcoholic beverages in the last year and by type of alcohol as beer, liquor, wine, and coolers. Associations between mean temperature over the past year and binge drinking over the past year among current drinkers were estimated using multilevel Poisson models with robust standard errors adjusted for age, sex, education level, marital status, and household socioeconomic status, with a fixed effect by region. RESULTS: We observed a non-significant increase in the prevalence of binge drinking for every difference of 1 °C between municipalities of the same region. By alcohol type, a 1 °C increase in mean annual temperature across municipalities of the same region increased the prevalence of beer binge drinking in the past year by 0.9% (PR = 1.009, 95%CI 1.005, 1.013) among beer consumers and the prevalence of coolers' binge drinking by 3.0% (PR = 1.030, 95%CI 1.003, 1.057) in coolers consumers. We observed non-significant results for liquor binge drinking (PR = 1.047, 95%CI 0.994, 1.102) and wine binge drinking (PR = 1.047, 95% 0.944, 1.161). CONCLUSION: People living in municipalities with higher temperatures reported a higher beer binge drinking in Mexican cities. This could account for 196,000 cases of beer binge drinking in 2016. The context of each country needs to be considered when generalizing these findings, and they need to be further explored with longitudinal data as there might be implications for climate change. If our findings are confirmed given the forecasted rising temperatures, we could expect an increase in binge drinking and therefore, in the alcohol burden of disease.

Elección de proveedores de servicios de atención y necesidades de salud de la población mexicana, 2021.

OBJETIVO: Estimar la asociación entre la elección de pro-veedores de servicios de atención y las necesidades de salud de la población. Material y métodos. Se utilizaron datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2021 sobre Covid-19. RESULTADOS: Las necesidades agudas (infeccio-nes respiratorias, diarrea y Covid-19) representan 48% del total; 21% crónicas (control, seguimiento o diagnóstico de diabetes, hipertensión, gastritis, cáncer); 12% necesidades de prevención (vacunación, chequeo, control prenatal); 7% eventos agudos no infecciosos que incluyen lesión física, dolor de cabeza, fiebre, y 4% el resto. La población elige atención privada o pública de forma diferenciada dependiendo del tipo de necesidad de salud. Para necesidades agudas sólo 25% se atiende en el sector público. Para enfermedades crónicas, agudas no infecciosas y de prevención, la proporción que se atiende en sector público es mayor, incluida la población sin seguridad social. CONCLUSIONES: Los resultados de este estudio serán de utilidad para que la reforma en el sistema de salud pueda reforzar los servicios públicos que requieran más recursos.

Equitability of Individual and Population Interventions to Reduce Obesity: A Modeling Study in Mexico.

INTRODUCTION: Modeling studies have estimated the potential impact and cost effectiveness of interventions to reduce obesity; few have focused on their equity across socioeconomic groups. This study aims to compare the equitability of individual- and population-level interventions to reduce obesity in Mexico. METHODS: Mathematical models were implemented to estimate the expected effect of 2 sugar-sweetened beverage tax scenarios (10% and 20%) and bariatric surgery, pharmacotherapy, and dietary advice as individual interventions to reduce body weight. Individual interventions were modeled using meta-analytical weight change, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the probability of access to healthcare services. For the tax, investigators obtained the baseline consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages from the National Health Survey 2012 and applied the reduction in sales observed in 2016 to estimate the caloric change and weight reduction. Implementation costs and cost per person, per kilogram, and equity were calculated for all interventions over a 1-year timeframe. RESULTS: The 20% tax produced the largest estimated increase (4.50%) in normal BMI prevalence, was the most cost effective, and had the largest and most equitable decrease in obesity across socioeconomic categories. Pharmacotherapy and bariatric surgery produced sizable decreases in obesity prevalence (3.68% and 1.18%), particularly among the middle and high socioeconomic groups, whereas dietary advice had the lowest impact on normal and obese categories. CONCLUSIONS: Individual interventions were effective in reducing obesity; yet, they were more expensive and less equitable than population interventions. Obesity in Mexico affects all socioeconomic groups; available interventions need to be carefully analyzed to tailor a national strategy that is both effective and equitable.

The Covid-19 cascade of care in Mexico: symptoms, positivity, and health care seeking decisions amid the pandemic / La cascada de atención Covid-19 en México: síntomas, positividad y búsqueda de atención durante la pandemia

Abstract: Objective: The study describes health care services utilization contextualized by the needs of the Mexican population during the Covid-19 pandemic. Materials and methods: We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey, Covid-19. Among the population with symptoms compatible with Covid-19, we describe the proportion who sought care, received care, were tested, were diagnosed positive, and survived, and whether they received care in public or private services. We estimated factors associated with the probability of seeking and receiving care. Results: Out of 7.1% of the population with symptoms compatible with Covid-19, 64.4% received care, and 15.4% tested positive; 74.5% received care in the private sector, even among the population with social security. Those with social security, in contact with a suspected or confirmed Covid-19 case, and with at least one comorbidity had a higher probability of seeking and receiving care. Conclusions: The most relevant finding of our study is the large proportion of the population with Covid-19 symptoms who sought and received care in private facilities, an essential aspect for decision-makers to consider as the current health reform moves forward in Mexico.

Resumen: Objetivo: Describir el uso de servicios de salud en el contexto de las necesidades de la población mexicana durante la epidemia de Covid-19. Material y métodos: Se utilizó la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición, Covid-19. De la población con síntomas compatibles con Covid-19, se describió la proporción que buscó atención, la que la recibió, a la que le hicieron prueba, a la que fue diagnosticada como positiva y sobrevivió; y si recibieron atención en servicios públicos o privados. Se estimaron factores asociados con la probabilidad de buscar y recibir atención. Resultados: De 7.1% de la población con síntomas compatibles con Covid-19, 64.4% recibió atención y 15.4% fue positivo; 74.5% recibió atención en servicios privados, aun en la población con seguridad social. La población con seguridad social, en contacto con un caso sospechoso o confirmado de Covid-19 y con al menos una comorbilidad, tuvo una probabilidad mayor de buscar o recibir atención. Conclusiones: El resultado más relevante del estudio es la proporción tan elevada de la población con síntomas compatibles con Covid-19 que recibió atención en servicios privados, un aspecto a considerar en el contexto de la reforma en salud en México.

Health care utilization during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico: the cascade of care / Utilización de servicios de salud durante la pandemia de Covid-19 en México. Análisis de la cascada de atención en 2020

Abstract: Objective: The objective of the study is to describe trends in selected services offered at public health facilities and utilization patterns during the Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico. Materials and methods: We used administrative data and the National Health and Nutrition Survey Covid-19, 2020. Results: We found a reduction in the rates of diabetes and detection screening during 2020 compared to 2014-2019. From the demand side, we found that 18.6% of the population reported health needs, and only 34% of them received care in public health facilities. The use of private health services was extensive even among the population with social security. The uninsured and the population with high and medium socioeconomic status had a lower probability of receiving care in public health facilities. Conclusion: We document trends in selected services, as well as the cascade of care during the Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico and its potential impact on displaced health care.

Resumen: Objetivo: Describir tendencias en servicios selectos ofrecidos en unidades de salud pública y patrones de uso de servicios durante la epidemia de Covid-19 en México. Material y métodos: Se utilizaron datos administrativos y la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición Covid-19, 2020. Resultados: Se encontró una reducción en las tasas de detección y diagnóstico de diabetes en 2020 comparado con 2014-2019. Se mostró que 18.6% de la población reportó una necesidad de salud y sólo 34% utilizó servicios de salud públicos. El uso de servicios privados fue extensivo aun en la población que tiene seguridad social. La población sin seguridad social y de nivel socioeconómico alto y medio tuvo una menor probabilidad de recibir atención en servicios públicos. Conclusiones: Se documentaron tendencias en servicios relevantes y la cascada de atención durante la epidemia de Covid-19 en México y su potencial impacto en el desplazamiento de la demanda.

Metodología de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2021 / National Health and Nutrition Survey 2021 methodology

Resumen: Objetivo: Describir el diseño de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2021 (Ensanut 2021). Material y métodos: La Ensanut 2021 es una encuesta probabilística de hogares que forma parte de la serie de Ensanut Continua 2020-2024. En esta ocasión se describen el alcance, el muestreo, la medición y la organización logística. Resultados: Se planea obtener al menos 12 060 entrevistas de hogar completas a nivel nacional y 9 837 muestras para determinar seropositividad a SARS-CoV-2 a nivel nacional. Conclusiones: La Ensanut 2021 permitirá realizar inferencias regionales sobre la prevalencia de seropositividad a SARS-CoV-2 y también acumular información para realizar inferencias estatales en el año 2024.

Abstract: Objective: To describe the design of the Mexican 2021 National Health and Nutrition Survey (Ensanut 2021). Materials and methods: The Ensanut 2021 is a probabilistic household survey that is part of the continuous Ensanut 2020-2024; survey outreach, sampling, measurement and logistic organization are described. Results: It is planned to obtain at least 12 060 complete household interviews and 9 837 samples to determine SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity at the national level. Conclusions: Ensanut 2021 will allow to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at regional and national level; also, it will accumulate information to make state inferences for the year 2024.

Elasticidad precio y elasticidad ingreso de la demanda de cerveza en México / Price elasticity and income elasticity of the demand for beer in Mexico

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la elasticidad precio y la elasticidad ingreso de la demanda de cerveza en México. Material y métodos: Se utilizaron series mensuales de ventas y precios de cerveza de 2007 a 2019. Se estimó la elasticidad a largo plazo mediante un modelo de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO). La elasticidad en el corto plazo se estimó mediante un modelo de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios dinámicos (MCOD). Resultados: La elasticidad precio en el largo plazo fue de -1.40 (IC95%: -2.53 a -0.27) y -1.31 (IC95%: -2.46 a -0.15) en el corto plazo. La elasticidad ingreso de la demanda en el largo y en el corto plazo se estimó en 0.86 (IC95%: 0.44-1.29) y 0.93 (IC95%: 0.51-1.34), respectivamente. Conclusión: Los hallazgos de este estudio sugieren que las políticas fiscales pueden tener un impacto positivo en la salud de la población al reducir el consumo de cerveza.

Abstract: Objective: Estimate the price and income elasticities of the demand for beer in Mexico. Materials and methods: Monthly series on beer sales and prices from 2007 to 2019 were used. Long-term elasticity was estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). Short-term elasticity was estimated using a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model. Results: The price elasticity was in the long term of -1.40 (95%CI: -2.53 to -0.27) and -1.31 (95%CI: -2.46 to -0.15) in the short term. The income elasticity of demand in the long and short term was estimated at 0.86 (95%CI: 0.44-1.29 and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.51-1.34), respectively. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that fiscal policies may have a positive impact on the health of the population by reducing beer consumption.

Metodología de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición 2020 sobre Covid-19 / National Health and Nutrition Survey 2020 Covid-19 methodology

Resumen Objetivo: Describir el diseño y los resultados de campo de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut) 2020 sobre Covid-19. Material y métodos: La Ensanut Covid-19 es una encuesta probabilística de hogares. En este artículo se describen los siguientes elementos del diseño: alcance, muestreo, medición, inferencia y logística. Resultados: Se obtuvieron 10 216 entrevistas de hogar completas y 9 464 resultados sobre seropositividad a SARS-CoV-2. La tasa de respuesta de hogar fue 80% y la de prueba de seropositividad de 44%. Conclusiones: El diseño probabilístico de la Ensanut Covid-19 permite hacer inferencias estadísticas válidas sobre parámetros de interés para la salud pública a nivel nacional y regional; en particular, permitirá hacer inferencias de utilidad práctica sobre la prevalencia de seropositividad a SARS-CoV-2 en México. Además, la Ensanut Covid-19 podrá ser comparada con Ensanut previas para identificar potenciales cambios en los estados de salud y nutrición de la población mexicana.

Abstract Objective: To describe the design and field results of the National Health and Nutrition Survey (Ensanut, for its Spanish acronym) Covid-19. Materials and methods: Ensanut Covid-19 is a probabilistic household survey. The following elements of the design are described in this article: scope, sampling, measurement, inference, and logistic organization. Results: Ensanut, Covid-19 got 10 216 completed household interviews and 9 464 individual results on SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. The household response rate was 80%. The response rate to the seropositivity test was 44%. Conclusions: The probabilistic design of Ensanut Covid-19 allows to make valid statistical inferences on parameters of interest to public health at the national and regional levels. In particular, Ensanut, Covid-19 will enable to make inferences of practical utility on the prevalence of seropositivity to SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico. In addition, Ensanut Covid-19 2020 can be compared to previous Ensanut, in order to identify potential changes in the health and nutrition status of the Mexican population.

Ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento para reducir la transmisión de Covid-19: evidencia y recomendaciones en el contexto de México / Cyclic schedules for working population to reduce Covid-19 transmission: evidence and recommendations for Mexico

Resumen: Este artículo propone intervenciones estructurales dirigidas a la reorganización del trabajo para evitar un repunte de casos de Covid-19, permitiendo la continuidad de la actividad económica. Se resume la evidencia disponible acerca de los ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento y la posible aplicación de ciclos de cuatro días de trabajo por tres de confinamiento (4x3) en el contexto mexicano. También se discuten otras intervenciones como la continuación del teletrabajo en algunos sectores y el escalonamiento de las jornadas de trabajo como medidas complementarias a los ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento. Esta discusión se da en el contexto de alta informalidad y escasos recursos para absorber una pérdida importante de la productividad por las empresas medianas y pequeñas en México. Se considera la necesidad de implementar apoyos para que personas y empresas puedan mitigar pérdidas en salarios y ganancias tanto del sector formal como informal.

Abstract: This paper proposes structural interventions to organize the working population which could be implemented to avoid a new wave of Covid-19 cases without halting economic activity. We summarize the evidence regarding cyclic schedules of work days followed by days in lockdown. We discuss the possible application of cycles of four days of work followed by three in lockdown for the Mexican context. We also discuss two complimentary interventions for these cycles: continuing to work from home for the sectors for which this is possible and staggered work shifts. This discussion takes into account the high informality context and the scarcity of resources to absorb productivity losses in middle and small companies. We consider the need to implement financial help for people and companies to mitigate lost earnings both in the formal and in the informal work sectors.

Aumento en la oferta de consultorios adyacentes a farmacias y atención en servicios públicos en México entre 2012 y 2018 / Increase in medical offices in pharmacies in Mexico and health care in public health services between 2012 and 2018

Resumen: Objetivo: Estudiar los cambios en la utilización de servicios de salud públicos y privados en México entre 2012 y 2018. Material y métodos: Usamos la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición de los años 2012 y 2018 (Ensanut 2012 y Ensanut 2018-19), y datos agregados de la oferta de servicios de salud. Resultados: Los consultorios adyacentes a farmacias (CAF) crecieron aceleradamente y esto se relacionó con un menor uso de servicios públicos, aun en la población con seguridad social. Individuos que viven en municipios con alta densidad de CAF tienen menor probabilidad de usar servicios públicos. El aumento en la afiliación al Seguro Popular (SP) no se acompañó de un incremento de la oferta de servicios públicos y no se relaciona con mayor utilización de servicios públicos. Conclusiones: Derechohabiencia y afiliación no garantizan el acceso a la atención médica en servicios públicos. Dada la creciente importancia de los CAF, es urgente diseñar y evaluar estrategias para regular su desempeño.

Abstract: Objective. To study changes in health care utilization in the public and private sector in Mexico in 2012 and 2018. Material and methods: We used the 2012 and 2018-19 National Health and Nutrition Surveys and aggregated data on the supply of health services. Results. There was an accelerated increase in medical offices in pharmacies (MOP) that was related to a lower use of public health services, even among the population with social security. We found that individuals living in municipalities with a high density of MOP had a lower probability of using public services. The increase in the affiliation to the Seguro Popular (SP) was not followed by an increase in public health services and was not associated with a higher utilization of public health services. Conclusions. Affiliation or health insurance does not guarantee access to public services. Given the high increase in MOP, it is urgent to design and evaluate strategies to regulate their performance.

Caracterización de la "cascada de atención" en servicios públicos en México en localidades de menos de 100 000 habitantes / Characterization of the "primary health care cascade" in public services in Mexico in localities with less than 100 000 inhabitants

Resumen: Objetivo: Caracterizar la demanda de servicios de atención en la población que vive en localidades de menos de 100 000 habitantes. Material y métodos: Se utilizaron los datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut) 2018. Se caracterizó la cascada de atención y se estimaron modelos probit para analizar factores asociados con la probabilidad de recibir atención. Resultados: En la población que reportó haber tenido un problema de salud, sólo 32% se atendió en una institución pública. Se encontró que ser mujer, tener más de 50 años, tener seguridad social, percibir que el problema de salud es grave y pertenecer al nivel socioeconómico alto -dentro de este grupo de población- se asocia con mayor probabilidad de recibir atención. Conclusiones: Los hallazgos de este estudio abordan algunos retos y oportunidades para otorgar servicios públicos a la población que vive en áreas más marginadas.

Abstract: Objective: To characterize the demand for public services among the population living in localities with less than 100 000 inhabitants. Materials and methods: We used data from the Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut) 2018. We characterize the primary health care cascade and estimated probit models on the probability of receiving care. Results: Among the population that reported a health problem, only 32% received care from a public institution. We found that women, having more than 50 years, being insured and belonging to the highest socioeconomic status -within this population- was associated with a greater probability of receiving care. Conclusions: Findings from this study show some of the challenges and opportunities to offer public health care services to the population that lives in more marginalized areas.

Determinantes del consumo de alimentos no básicos de alta densidad energética en población mexicana (Ensanut 2012) / Determinants of non-essential energy-dense food consumption in Mexican population (Ensanut 2012)

Resumen: Objetivo: Caracterizar el perfil sociodemográfico que se asocia con las probabilidades de consumo de alimentos no básicos de alta densidad energética (ANBADE), gravados desde 2014. Material y métodos: Se utilizó la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut) 2012. Se identificó el grupo de ANBADE y se estimaron modelos probit sobre las probabilidades de consumo (PC) y de alto consumo después de ajustar por energía total (PAC), en función de características sociodemográficas. Resultados: Los escolares tienen 10.7 puntos porcentuales (pp) más PAC frente a los preescolares. Pertenecer a hogares con el mayor gasto o escolaridad del jefe se asocia con una PC 3.3 y 3.2 pp mayor en comparación con los hogares de menor gasto o escolaridad del jefe, respectivamente. Vivir en localidades metropolitanas se asocia con una PAC 5.2 pp mayor frente a localidades rurales. Conclusiones: El estudio identificó las condiciones sociodemográficas que se asocian con las mayores PC o PAC de ANBADE, que podrán considerarse en el diseño y evaluación de la política alimentaria.

Abstract: Objective: To characterize the sociodemographic profile associated with the probabilities of consumption of nonessential energy-dense foods (ANBADE), taxed since 2014. Materials and methods: We used the National Health and Nutrition Survey (Ensanut) 2012. ANBADE group was identified and probit models were estimated for the probabilities of consumption (PC) and of belonging to the high quintile of consumption after adjusting for total energy intake (PAC), as a function of sociodemographic characteristics. Results: School-aged children have a PAC 10.7 percentage points (pp) higher vs. preschool-aged. Belonging to households with the highest expenditures or education of the head of the household are associated with a PC 3.3 or 3.2 pp higher vs. households with lower expenditures or education of the head, respectively. Living in metropolitan areas is associated with a PAC 5.2 pp higher vs. rural areas. Conclusions: The study identified the sociodemographic conditions associated with the largest PC or PAC of ANBADE, which may be considered in the design and evaluation of food policy.

Posicionamiento sobre los impuestos a alimentos no básicos densamente energéticos y bebidas azucaradas / Position paper on taxes to non-basic energy-dense foods and sugar-sweetened beverages

Resumen: En 2014, el gobierno mexicano implementó una política fiscal para disminuir el consumo de bebidas azucaradas y alimentos no básicos con alta densidad energética. Este documento resume y analiza los estudios que han evaluado el impacto observado y esperado de los impuestos a alimentos y bebidas no saludables en México. La implementación de impuestos ha logrado disminuir las compras de bebidas azucaradas en 7.6% y alimentos no básicos con alta densidad energética en 7.4%. La reducción de consumo de bebidas azucaradas podría reducir la obesidad en 2.5%, prevenir 20 000 casos de enfermedad cardiovascular y 189 000 casos de diabetes al año 2022, así como prevenir 2 000 muertes. Además, se espera que estos impuestos ayuden a reducir en 1 173 millones de dólares los costos de atención a la salud. Los impuestos a alimentos no saludables deben fortalecerse y permanecer como parte integral de la estrategia nacional dirigida a reducir la obesidad y las enfermedades crónicas en México.

Abstract: In 2014 the Mexican government implemented taxes to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy-dense foods. In this manuscript, we analyze the scientific evidence linking the consumption of these products to chronic diseases, and summarize the studies that have evaluated the observed and expected impact of food taxes in Mexico. The implementation of taxes to unhealthy foods has reduced purchases of sugar-sweetened beverages in 7.6% and nonessential energy-dense foods in 7.4%. A reduction in consumption could decrease obesity prevalence by 2.5%; prevent 20 000 cardiovascular disease events; 189 000 diabetes cases; and 20 000 cardiovascular deaths. Additionally, this impact could save nearly 1 173 million dollars from healthcare costs. Taxes to unhealthy foods should be strengthened up and remain as an integral part of the national strategy to reduce obesity and chronic diseases in Mexico.

Productivity loss associated with the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico.

The objective of the study was to estimate the productivity loss by premature death, absenteeism and presenteeism attributable to sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption in Mexico in 2014. We used population attributable fractions due to SSBs for diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancers. We gathered information from a variety of publicly available sources: mortality data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography; hospital discharges and outpatient visits from the Health Ministry; and productivity (measured in wages earned) from the National Occupation and Employment Survey. We estimated a total productivity loss of 1426.6 million USD attributable to SSB consumption. 56.9% of the attributable productivity loss was due to premature mortality and 41.1% was reduced productivity through presenteeism. Diabetes was the main cause of productivity loss (92.1% of premature death-related productivity loss and 99.8% from presenteeism). SSB consumption leads to a considerable loss of productivity in Mexico. Findings emphasize the need to strengthen fiscal policies to reduce or eliminate these indirect costs associated with SSB consumption.

Economic and disease burden of breast cancer associated with suboptimal breastfeeding practices in Mexico.

PURPOSE: Exclusive breastfeeding and longer breastfeeding reduce women's breast cancer risk but Mexico has one of the lowest breastfeeding rates worldwide. We estimated the lifetime economic and disease burden of breast cancer in Mexico if 95% of parous women breastfeed each child exclusively for 6 months and continue breastfeeding for over a year. METHODS: We used a static microsimulation model with a cost-of-illness approach to simulate a cohort of Mexican women. We estimated breast cancer incidence, premature mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), medical costs, and income losses due to breast cancer and extrapolated the results to 1.116 million Mexican women of age 15 in 2012. Costs were expressed in 2015 US dollars and discounted at a 3% annual rate. RESULTS: We estimated that 2,186 premature deaths (95% CI 2,123-2,248), 9,936 breast cancer cases (95% CI 9,651-10,220), 45,109 DALYs (95% CI 43,000-47,217), and $245 million USD (95% CI 234-256) in medical costs and income losses owing to breast cancer could be saved over a cohort's lifetime. Medical costs account for 80% of the economic burden; income losses and opportunity costs for caregivers account for 15 and 5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In Mexico, the burden of breast cancer due to suboptimal breastfeeding in women is high in terms of morbidity, premature mortality, and the economic costs for the health sector and society.

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico.

STUDY QUESTION: What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico? METHODS: Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario. STUDY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.

Cambios en los precios de bebidas y alimentos con impuesto en áreas rurales y semirrurales de México / Changes in prices of taxed sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy dense food in rural and semi-rural areas in Mexico

Resumen: Objetivo: Analizar cambios en precios asociados con la implementación de los impuestos a bebidas azucaradas y alimentos no básicos con alta densidad energética implementados en 2014. Material y métodos: Se recolectaron precios en áreas rurales y semiurbanas en diciembre de 2013, y abril y diciembre de 2014. Se analizaron cambios en precios por tipo de bebidas y alimento con impuesto usando modelos de efectos fijos y estratificando por región, tipo de establecimiento y tamaño de presentación. Resultados: El impuesto a bebidas azucaradas no pasó por completo a los precios; en promedio, los precios aumentaron 0.73 pesos por litro. Para alimentos con alta densidad energética, el impuesto pasó igual o mayor al monto del impuesto para galletas, barras de cereal y cereales de caja. Conclusión: El potencial efecto de los impuestos en consumo podría ser menor al esperado en áreas rurales dado que los impuestos no pasaron por completo a los precios.

Abstract: Objective: To estimate changes in prices associated with the implementation of the tax to sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) and to nonessential energy dense food in 2014. Materials and methods: Price data were collected in rural and semi-rural areas in December 2013, and April and December 2014. Fixed effects models were used to estimate changes in prices of beverages and nonessential energy dense food, stratified by region, retailer and package size. Results: The SSB tax did not pass completely through prices: prices increased on average 0.73 pesos per liter. For nonessential energy dense food, the tax passed completely or was overshifted for cookies, cereal bars and cereal boxes. Conclusion: The potential effect of the taxes on consumption could be attenuated in rural areas as the pass through prices was incomplete.

Breastfeeding Mode and Risk of Breast Cancer: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding reduces women's risk of breast cancer. Since exclusive breastfeeding has a stronger hormonal effect, it could theoretically result in a greater reduction in breast cancer risk than any breastfeeding mode. No meta-analysis has examined breast cancer risk by breastfeeding mode. Research aim: The authors conducted a meta-analysis for breast cancer risk in parous women who breastfed exclusively or in any mode versus parous women who formula fed their infants, and they estimated the summary dose-response association by the accumulated duration of any breastfeeding mode. METHODS: A systematic review of studies published between 2005 and 2015 analyzing breastfeeding and breast cancer risk in women was conducted in PubMed and EBSCOhost. A meta-analysis ( n = 65 studies) with fixed effects (or random effects, if heterogeneity existed) was carried out stratified by breastfeeding mode and menopausal and parity status. A summary dose-response association was estimated using the generalized least-squares method. RESULTS: The summary relative risk (SRR) for breast cancer in parous women who breastfed exclusively was 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.58, 0.90], versus parous women who had never breastfed. For parous women who breastfed in any mode, the SRR was lower in both premenopausal women (0.86, 95% CI [0.80, 0.93]) and postmenopausal women (0.89, 95% CI [0.83, 0.95]). There was no heterogeneity or publication bias. There is weak evidence of a difference between exclusive and any breastfeeding mode ( p = .08). The summary dose-response curve was nonlinear ( p < .001). CONCLUSION: Exclusive breastfeeding among parous women reduces the risk of breast cancer compared with parous women who do not breastfeed exclusively.

Estimating the Impact of Earlier ART Initiation and Increased Testing Coverage on HIV Transmission among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Mexico using a Mathematical Model.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of late ART initiation on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mexico. METHODS: An HIV transmission model was built to estimate the number of infections transmitted by HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM-HIV+) MSM-HIV+ in the short and long term. Sexual risk behavior data were estimated from a nationwide study of MSM. CD4+ counts at ART initiation from a representative national cohort were used to estimate time since infection. Number of MSM-HIV+ on treatment and suppressed were estimated from surveillance and government reports. Status quo scenario (SQ), and scenarios of early ART initiation and increased HIV testing were modeled. RESULTS: We estimated 14239 new HIV infections per year from MSM-HIV+ in Mexico. In SQ, MSM take an average 7.4 years since infection to initiate treatment with a median CD4+ count of 148 cells/mm3(25th-75th percentiles 52-266). In SQ, 68% of MSM-HIV+ are not aware of their HIV status and transmit 78% of new infections. Increasing the CD4+ count at ART initiation to 350 cells/mm3 shortened the time since infection to 2.8 years. Increasing HIV testing to cover 80% of undiagnosed MSM resulted in a reduction of 70% in new infections in 20 years. Initiating ART at 500 cells/mm3 and increasing HIV testing the reduction would be of 75% in 20 years. CONCLUSION: A substantial number of new HIV infections in Mexico are transmitted by undiagnosed and untreated MSM-HIV+. An aggressive increase in HIV testing coverage and initiating ART at a CD4 count of 500 cells/mm3 in this population would significantly benefit individuals and decrease the number of new HIV infections in Mexico.

HIV prevalence, sociodemographic characteristics, and sexual behaviors among transwomen in Mexico City / Prevalencia de VIH, características sociodemográficas y comportamientos en mujeres transgénero en la Ciudad de México

Objective. To present results from HIV testing, knowledge of HIV status and socioeconomic factors associated with the probability of having a HIV positive result among transwomen (TW) in Mexico. Materials and methods. In 2012, we conducted an HIV seroprevalence survey to 585 TW in Mexico City in three strata: gathering places, the Condesa HIV Clinic and in four detention centers. We estimated the prevalence of HIV in each strata and applied a probit model to the overall sample to analyze factors associated with the probability of a HIV positive result. Results. The prevalence of HIV was 19.8% in meeting places; 31.9% in detention centers and 64% among the participants of the clinic. Age, low education and number of sexual partners was positively associated with HIV. Conclusions. Results from the study provide relevant information to design HIV prevention interventions tailored to the needs of the TW population.

Objetivo. Identificar la prevalencia, conocimiento de estatus de VIH y factores socioeconómicos asociados con la probabilidad de tener un resultado de VIH positivo en mujeres transgénero (MT) en México. Material y métodos. En 2012, se realizó una encuesta de seroprevalencia de VIH a 585 MT en sitios de encuentro, centros penitenciarios y una clínica de VIH, en la Ciudad de México. Se estimó la prevalencia de VIH en cada estrato y se aplicó un modelo probit para analizar los factores asociados con la probabilidad de un resultado positivo. Resultados. La prevalencia de VIH fue de 19.8% en lugares de encuentro y de 32% en centros de detención; a su vez, 64% de las participantes en la clínica eran VIH positivas. La edad, el bajo nivel de educación y el número de parejas sexuales se asoció positivamente con VIH. Conclusiones. Los resultados del estudio aportan información relevante para el diseño de intervenciones de prevención de VIH de acuerdo con las necesidades de esta población.