The degree of bowel remission predicts phenotype progression in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) are at risk of progressing from inflammatory to stricturing and penetrating phenotypes. The influence of the depth of remission on the risk of progression has not been adequately evaluated. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study including surgically naïve CD patients with inflammatory phenotype evaluated concomitantly by magnetic resonance enterography and colonoscopy. The degree of remission was correlated with the risk of progressing to stricturing and penetrating phenotypes. RESULTS: Three hundred nineteen CD patients were included: 27.0% with transmural remission, 16.0% with isolated endoscopic remission, 14.4% with isolated radiologic remission, and 42.6% without remission. Patients with transmural remission presented the lowest rates of phenotype progression (1.2%), with a significant difference compared to isolated radiologic remission (10.9%, p = 0.019), to isolated endoscopic remission (19.6%, p ≤ 0.001), and to no remission (46.3%, p ≤ 0.001). In multivariate regression analysis, transmural remission (OR 0.017 95% CI 0.002-0.135, p < 0.001), isolated radiologic remission (OR 0.139 95% CI 0.049-0.396, p < 0.001), and isolated endoscopic remission (OR 0.301 95% CI 0.123-0.736, p = 0.008) resulted in lower rates of phenotype progression compared to no remission. No patient with transmural or isolated radiologic remission progressed to penetrating phenotypes. CONCLUSION: The degree of bowel remission correlates with the risk of phenotype progression. Patients with transmural remission are at the lowest risk of progressing to stricturing and penetrating phenotypes.

Is There a Safe Alcohol Consumption Limit for the General Population and in Patients with Liver Disease?

Excessive alcohol consumption represents an important burden for health systems worldwide and is a major cause of liver- and cancer-related deaths. Alcohol consumption is mostly assessed by self-report that often underestimates the amount of drinking. While alcohol use disorders identification test - version C is the most widely used test for alcohol use screening, in patients with liver disease the use of alcohol biomarker could help an objective assessment. The amount of alcohol that leads to significant liver disease depends on gender, genetic background, and coexistence of comorbidities (i.e., metabolic syndrome factors). All patients with alcohol-associated liver disease are recommended to follow complete abstinence and they should be treated within multidisciplinary teams. Abstinence slows down and even reverses the progression of liver fibrosis and can help recompensate patients with complicated cirrhosis. Whether there is a safe amount of alcohol in the general population is a matter of intense debate. Large epidemiological studies showed that the safe amount of alcohol to avoid overall health-related risks is lower than expected even in the general population. Even one drink per day can increase cancer-related death. In patients with any kind of chronic liver disease, especially in those with metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease, no alcohol intake is recommended. This review article discusses the current evidence supporting the deleterious effects of small-to-moderate amounts of alcohol in the general population and in patients with underlying chronic liver disease.

Preventing liver disease with policy measures to tackle alcohol consumption and obesity: The HEPAHEALTH II study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) causes 1.8% of all deaths in Europe, many of them from liver cancer. We estimated the impact of several policy interventions in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model to assess seven different policy scenarios in 2022-2030: a minimum unit price (MUP) of alcohol of €0.70 or €1, a volumetric alcohol tax, a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, food marketing restrictions, plus two different combinations of these policies compared against current policies (the 'inaction' scenario). RESULTS: All policies reduced the burden of CLD and liver cancer. The largest impact was observed for a MUP of €1, which by 2030 would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 7.1% to 7.3% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania compared with inaction. For liver cancer, the corresponding reductions in cumulative incidence were between 4.8% to 5.8%. Implementing a package containing a MUP of €0.70, a volumetric alcohol tax, and an SSB tax would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 4.29% to 4.71% and of liver cancer by between 3.47% to 3.95% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The total predicted reduction in healthcare costs by 2030 was greatest with the €1 MUP scenario, with a reduction for liver cancer costs of €8.18M and €612.49M in the Netherlands and France, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Policy measures tackling primary risk factors for CLD and liver cancer, such as the implementation of a MUP of €1 and/or a MUP of €0.70 plus SSB tax could markedly reduce the number of Europeans with CLD or liver cancer. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Policymakers must be aware that alcohol and obesity are the two leading risk factors for chronic liver disease and liver cancer in Europe and both are expected to increase in the future if no policy interventions are made. This study assessed the potential of different public health policy measures to mitigate the impact of alcohol consumption and obesity on the general population in three European countries: France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The findings support introducing a €1 minimum unit price for alcohol to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease. In addition, the study shows the importance of targeting multiple drivers of alcohol consumption and obesogenic products simultaneously via a harmonized fiscal policy framework, to complement efforts being made within health systems. These findings should encourage policymakers to introduce such policy measures across Europe to reduce the burden of liver disease. The modeling methods used in this study can assist in structuring similar modeling in other regions to expand on this study's findings.

Artificial intelligence scoring of liver biopsies in a phase II trial of semaglutide in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Artificial intelligence-powered digital pathology offers the potential to quantify histological findings in a reproducible way. This analysis compares the evaluation of histological features of NASH between pathologists and a machine-learning (ML) pathology model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This post hoc analysis included data from a subset of patients (n=251) with biopsy-confirmed NASH and fibrosis stage F1-F3 from a 72-week randomized placebo-controlled trial of once-daily subcutaneous semaglutide 0.1, 0.2, or 0.4 mg (NCT02970942). Biopsies at baseline and week 72 were read by 2 pathologists. Digitized biopsy slides were evaluated by PathAI's NASH ML models to quantify changes in fibrosis, steatosis, inflammation, and hepatocyte ballooning using categorical assessments and continuous scores. Pathologist and ML-derived categorical assessments detected a significantly greater percentage of patients achieving the primary endpoint of NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis with semaglutide 0.4 mg versus placebo (pathologist 58.5% vs. 22.0%, p < 0.0001; ML 36.9% vs. 11.9%; p =0.0015). Both methods detected a higher but nonsignificant percentage of patients on semaglutide 0.4 mg versus placebo achieving the secondary endpoint of liver fibrosis improvement without NASH worsening. ML continuous scores detected significant treatment-induced responses in histological features, including a quantitative reduction in fibrosis with semaglutide 0.4 mg versus placebo ( p =0.0099) that could not be detected using pathologist or ML categorical assessment. CONCLUSIONS: ML categorical assessments reproduced pathologists' results of histological improvement with semaglutide for steatosis and disease activity. ML-based continuous scores demonstrated an antifibrotic effect not measured by conventional histopathology.

Tight control using fecal calprotectin and early disease intervention increase the rates of transmural remission in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence supports the use of transmural remission as a treatment target in Crohn's disease (CD), but it is seldom achieved in clinical practice. Tight monitoring of inflammation using fecal calprotectin with reactive treatment escalation may potentially improve these results. AIMS: To evaluate if treatment escalation based on fecal calprotectin can improve the rates of transmural remission in CD. The influence of the timing of intervention on this strategy was also evaluated. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study including 256 CD patients with 2 consecutive assessments by MRI-enterography and colonoscopy and with regular monitoring using fecal calprotectin. For each occurrence of an elevated fecal calprotectin (≥250 µg/g), we evaluated whether a reactive adjustment of medical treatment was performed. The ratio of treatment escalation/elevated fecal calprotectin was correlated with the chances of reaching transmural remission. Early disease was defined as disease duration <18 months without previous exposure to immunomodulators and biologics. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 2 years (IQR 1-4), 61 patients (23.8%) reached transmural remission. Ratios of escalation ≥50% resulted in higher rates of transmural remission (34.2% vs. 15.1%, p < 0.001). The effect was more pronounced in patients with early disease (50.0% vs. 12.0%, p = 0.003). In multivariate analysis, a treatment escalation ratio ≥50% (OR 3.46, 95% CI 1.67-7.17, p = 0.001) and early disease intervention (OR 3.24, 95% CI 1.12-9.34, p = 0.030) were independent predictors of achieving transmural remission. CONCLUSION: Tight-monitoring and reactive treatment escalation increase the rates of transmural remission in CD. Intervention in early disease further improves these results.

An international Delphi consensus statement on metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and risk of chronic kidney disease.

Background: With the rising global prevalence of fatty liver disease related to metabolic dysfunction, the association of this common liver condition with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become increasingly evident. In 2020, the more inclusive term metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was proposed to replace the term non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The observed association between MAFLD and CKD and our understanding that CKD can be a consequence of underlying metabolic dysfunction support the notion that individuals with MAFLD are at higher risk of having and developing CKD compared with those without MAFLD. However, to date, there is no appropriate guidance on CKD in individuals with MAFLD. Furthermore, there has been little attention paid to the link between MAFLD and CKD in the Nephrology community. Methods and Results: Using a Delphi-based approach, a multidisciplinary panel of 50 international experts from 26 countries reached a consensus on some of the open research questions regarding the link between MAFLD and CKD. Conclusions: This Delphi-based consensus statement provided guidance on the epidemiology, mechanisms, management and treatment of MAFLD and CKD, as well as the relationship between the severity of MAFLD and risk of CKD, which establish a framework for the early prevention and management of these two common and interconnected diseases.

Theory-based physical activity and/or nutrition behavior change interventions for cancer survivors: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: Theory-based interventions aimed at promoting health behavior change in cancer survivors seem to be effective but remain scarce. More information on intervention features is also needed. This review aimed to synthesize the evidence from randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of theory-based interventions (and its features) on physical activity (PA) and/or diet behaviors in cancer survivors. METHODS: A systematic search in three databases (PubMed, PsycInfo, and Web of Science) identified studies that (i) targeted adult cancer survivors and (ii) included theory-based randomized controlled trials designed to influence PA, diet, or weight management. A qualitative synthesis of interventions' effectiveness, extensiveness of theory use, and applied intervention techniques was conducted. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies were included. Socio-Cognitive Theory was the most used theory, showing promising results in PA-only trials and mixed findings in multiple-behavior interventions. Mixed findings were observed for interventions based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and Transtheoretical Model. Limited findings were found in diet-only interventions. A large variability in the extensiveness of theory use, and in intervention techniques was found. Further research is required to understand how and why these interventions offer promise for improving behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Theory-based interventions seem to improve PA and diet behaviors in cancer survivors. Further studies, including thorough intervention descriptions, are needed to confirm these findings and identify the optimal features and content of lifestyle theory-based interventions for cancer survivors. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: This systematic review can contribute to the development of more effective interventions to promote long-term adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviors.

Biomarkers for staging fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (the LITMUS project): a comparative diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: The reference standard for detecting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and staging fibrosis-liver biopsy-is invasive and resource intensive. Non-invasive biomarkers are urgently needed, but few studies have compared these biomarkers in a single cohort. As part of the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis (LITMUS) project, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 17 biomarkers and multimarker scores in detecting NASH and clinically significant fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and identify their optimal cutoffs as screening tests in clinical trial recruitment. METHODS: This was a comparative diagnostic accuracy study in people with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD from 13 countries across Europe, recruited between Jan 6, 2010, and Dec 29, 2017, from the LITMUS metacohort of the prospective European NAFLD Registry. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with paired liver biopsy and serum samples were eligible; those with excessive alcohol consumption or evidence of other chronic liver diseases were excluded. The diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers was expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with liver histology as the reference standard and compared with the Fibrosis-4 index for liver fibrosis (FIB-4) in the same subgroup. Target conditions were the presence of NASH with clinically significant fibrosis (ie, at-risk NASH; NAFLD Activity Score ≥4 and F≥2) or the presence of advanced fibrosis (F≥3), analysed in all participants with complete data. We identified thres holds for each biomarker for reducing the number of biopsy-based screen failures when recruiting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis for future trials. FINDINGS: Of 1430 participants with NAFLD in the LITMUS metacohort with serum samples, 966 (403 women and 563 men) were included after all exclusion criteria had been applied. 335 (35%) of 966 participants had biopsy-confirmed NASH and clinically significant fibrosis and 271 (28%) had advanced fibrosis. For people with NASH and clinically significant fibrosis, no single biomarker or multimarker score significantly reached the predefined AUC 0·80 acceptability threshold (AUCs ranging from 0·61 [95% CI 0·54-0·67] for FibroScan controlled attenuation parameter to 0·81 [0·75-0·86] for SomaSignal), with accuracy mostly similar to FIB-4. Regarding detection of advanced fibrosis, SomaSignal (AUC 0·90 [95% CI 0·86-0·94]), ADAPT (0·85 [0·81-0·89]), and FibroScan liver stiffness measurement (0·83 [0·80-0·86]) reached acceptable accuracy. With 11 of 17 markers, histological screen failure rates could be reduced to 33% in trials if only people who were marker positive had a biopsy for evaluating eligibility. The best screening performance for NASH and clinically significant fibrosis was observed for SomaSignal (number needed to test [NNT] to find one true positive was four [95% CI 4-5]), then ADAPT (six [5-7]), MACK-3 (seven [6-8]), and PRO-C3 (nine [7-11]). INTERPRETATION: None of the single markers or multimarker scores achieved the predefined acceptable AUC for replacing biopsy in detecting people with both NASH and clinically significant fibrosis. However, several biomarkers could be applied in a prescreening strategy in clinical trial recruitment. The performance of promising markers will be further evaluated in the ongoing prospective LITMUS study cohort. FUNDING: The Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking.

Machine learning algorithm improves the detection of NASH (NAS-based) and at-risk NASH: A development and validation study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Detecting NASH remains challenging, while at-risk NASH (steatohepatitis and F≥ 2) tends to progress and is of interest for drug development and clinical application. We developed prediction models by supervised machine learning techniques, with clinical data and biomarkers to stage and grade patients with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Learning data were collected in the Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis metacohort (966 biopsy-proven NAFLD adults), staged and graded according to NASH CRN. Conditions of interest were the clinical trial definition of NASH (NAS ≥ 4;53%), at-risk NASH (NASH with F ≥ 2;35%), significant (F ≥ 2;47%), and advanced fibrosis (F ≥ 3;28%). Thirty-five predictors were included. Missing data were handled by multiple imputations. Data were randomly split into training/validation (75/25) sets. A gradient boosting machine was applied to develop 2 models for each condition: clinical versus extended (clinical and biomarkers). Two variants of the NASH and at-risk NASH models were constructed: direct and composite models.Clinical gradient boosting machine models for steatosis/inflammation/ballooning had AUCs of 0.94/0.79/0.72. There were no improvements when biomarkers were included. The direct NASH model produced AUCs (clinical/extended) of 0.61/0.65. The composite NASH model performed significantly better (0.71) for both variants. The composite at-risk NASH model had an AUC of 0.83 (clinical and extended), an improvement over the direct model. Significant fibrosis models had AUCs (clinical/extended) of 0.76/0.78. The extended advanced fibrosis model (0.86) performed significantly better than the clinical version (0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Detection of NASH and at-risk NASH can be improved by constructing independent machine learning models for each component, using only clinical predictors. Adding biomarkers only improved the accuracy of fibrosis.

Transmural remission improves clinical outcomes up to 5 years in Crohn's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence supporting transmural remission (TR) as a long-term treatment target in Crohn's disease (CD) is still unavailable. Less stringent but more reachable targets such as isolated endoscopic (IER) or radiologic remission (IRR) may also be acceptable options in the long-term. METHODS: Multicenter retrospective study including 404 CD patients evaluated by magnetic resonance enterography and colonoscopy. Five-year rates of hospitalization, surgery, use of steroids, and treatment escalation were compared between patients with TR, IER, IRR, and no remission (NR). RESULTS: 20.8% of CD patients presented TR, 23.3% IER, 13.6% IRR and 42.3% NR. TR was associated with lower risk of hospitalization (odds-ratio [OR] 0.244 [0.111-0.538], p < 0.001), surgery (OR 0.132 [0.030-0.585], p = 0.008), steroid use (OR 0.283 [0.159-0.505], p < 0.001), and treatment escalation (OR 0.088 [0.044-0.176], p < 0.001) compared to no NR. IRR resulted in lower risk of hospitalization (OR 0.333 [0.143-0.777], p = 0.011) and treatment escalation (OR 0.260 [0.125-0.540], p < 0.001), while IER reduced the risk of steroid use (OR 0.442 [0.262-0.745], p = 0.002) and treatment escalation (OR 0.490 [0.259-0.925], p = 0.028) compared to NR. CONCLUSIONS: TR improved clinical outcomes over 5 years of follow-up in CD patients. Distinct but significant benefits were seen with IER and IRR. This suggests that both endoscopic and radiologic remission should be part of the treatment targets of CD.

A new framework for advancing in drug-induced liver injury research. The Prospective European DILI Registry.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: No multi-national prospective study of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) has originated in Europe. The design of a prospective European DILI registry, clinical features and short-term outcomes of the cases and controls is reported. METHODS: Patients with suspected DILI were prospectively enrolled in the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, Portugal and Iceland, 2016-2021. DILI cases or non-DILI acute liver injury controls following causality assessment were enrolled. RESULTS: Of 446 adjudicated patients, 246 DILI patients and 100 had acute liver injury due to other aetiologies, mostly autoimmune hepatitis (n = 42) and viral hepatitis (n = 34). DILI patients (mean age 56 years), 57% women, 60% with jaundice and 3.6% had pre-existing liver disease. DILI cases and non-DILI acute liver injury controls had similar demographics, clinical features and outcomes. A single agent was implicated in 199 (81%) DILI cases. Amoxicillin-clavulanate, flucloxacillin, atorvastatin, nivolumab/ipilimumab, infliximab and nitrofurantoin were the most commonly implicated drugs. Multiple conventional medications were implicated in 37 (15%) and 18 cases were caused by herbal and dietary supplements. The most common single causative drug classes were antibacterials (40%) and antineoplastic/immunomodulating agents (27%). Overall, 13 (5.3%) had drug-induced autoimmune-like hepatitis due to nitrofurantoin, methyldopa, infliximab, methylprednisolone and minocycline. Only six (2.4%) DILI patients died (50% had liver-related death), and another six received liver transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: In this first multi-national European prospective DILI Registry study, antibacterials were the most commonly implicated medications, whereas antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents accounted for higher proportion of DILI than previously described. This European initiative provides an important opportunity to advance the study on DILI.

Global epidemiology of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and HCC: trends, projections and risk factors.

Heavy alcohol consumption is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Globally, alcohol per-capita consumption rose from 5.5 litres in 2005 to 6.4 litres in 2016 and is projected to increase further to 7.6 litres in 2030. In 2019, an estimated 25% of global cirrhosis deaths were associated with alcohol. The global estimated age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of alcohol-associated cirrhosis was 4.5 per 100,000 population, with the highest and lowest ASDR in Africa and the Western Pacific, respectively. The annual incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis ranged from 0.9% to 5.6%. Alcohol was associated with approximately one-fifth of global HCC-related deaths in 2019. Between 2012 and 2017, the global estimated ASDR for alcohol-associated cirrhosis declined, but the ASDR for alcohol-associated liver cancer increased. Measures are required to curb heavy alcohol consumption to reduce the burden of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and HCC. Degree of alcohol intake, sex, older age, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, gut microbial dysbiosis and genetic variants are key factors in the development of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and HCC. In this Review, we discuss the global epidemiology, projections and risk factors for alcohol-associated cirrhosis and HCC.

Alarming increase of NASH as cause of liver cancer.

A very interesting recent article by Huang and colleagues evaluated the global epidemiology of liver cancer from 2010 to 2019 and showed that non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the fastest growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).1.

Adiponectin, Leptin, and IGF-1 Are Useful Diagnostic and Stratification Biomarkers of NAFLD.

Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease where liver biopsy remains the gold standard for diagnosis. Here we aimed to evaluate the role of circulating adiponectin, leptin, and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels as non-invasive NAFLD biomarkers and assess their correlation with the metabolome. Materials and Methods: Leptin, adiponectin, and IGF-1 serum levels were measured by ELISA in two independent cohorts of biopsy-proven obese NAFLD patients and healthy-liver controls (discovery: 38 NAFLD, 13 controls; validation: 194 NAFLD, 31 controls) and correlated with clinical data, histology, genetic parameters, and serum metabolomics. Results: In both cohorts, leptin increased in NAFLD vs. controls (discovery: AUROC 0.88; validation: AUROC 0.83; p < 0.0001). The leptin levels were similar between obese and non-obese healthy controls, suggesting that obesity is not a confounding factor. In the discovery cohort, adiponectin was lower in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) vs. non-alcoholic fatty liver (AUROC 0.87; p < 0.0001). For the validation cohort, significance was attained for homozygous for PNPLA3 allele c.444C (AUROC 0.63; p < 0.05). Combining adiponectin with specific serum lipids improved the assay performance (AUROC 0.80; p < 0.0001). For the validation cohort, IGF-1 was lower with advanced fibrosis (AUROC 0.67, p < 0.05), but combination with international normalized ratio (INR) and ferritin increased the assay performance (AUROC 0.81; p < 0.01). Conclusion: Serum leptin discriminates NAFLD, and adiponectin combined with specific lipids stratifies NASH. IGF-1, INR, and ferritin distinguish advanced fibrosis.

Development and prognostic relevance of a histologic grading and staging system for alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The SALVE Histopathology Group (SHG) developed and validated a grading and staging system for the clinical and full histological spectrum of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and evaluated its prognostic utility in a multinational cohort of 445 patients. METHODS: SALVE grade was described by semiquantitative scores for steatosis, activity (hepatocellular injury and lobular neutrophils) and cholestasis. The histological diagnosis of steatohepatitis due to ALD (histological ASH, hASH) was based on the presence of hepatocellular ballooning and lobular neutrophils. Fibrosis staging was adapted from the Clinical Research Network staging system for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the Laennec staging system and reflects the pattern and extent of ALD fibrosis. There are 7 SALVE fibrosis stages (SFS) ranging from no fibrosis to severe cirrhosis. RESULTS: Interobserver κ-value for each grading and staging parameter was >0.6. In the whole study cohort, long-term outcome was associated with activity grade and cholestasis, as well as cirrhosis with very broad septa (severe cirrhosis) (p <0.001 for all parameters). In decompensated ALD, adverse short-term outcome was associated with activity grade, hASH and cholestasis (p = 0.038, 0.012 and 0.001, respectively), whereas in compensated ALD, hASH and severe fibrosis/cirrhosis were associated with decompensation-free survival (p = 0.011 and 0.001, respectively). On multivariable analysis, severe cirrhosis emerged as an independent histological predictor of long-term survival in the whole study cohort. Severe cirrhosis and hASH were identified as independent predictors of short-term survival in decompensated ALD, and also as independent predictors of decompensation-free survival in compensated ALD. CONCLUSION: The SALVE grading and staging system is a reproducible and prognostically relevant method for the histological assessment of disease activity and fibrosis in ALD. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) may undergo liver biopsy to assess disease severity. We developed a system to classify ALD under the microscope by grading ALD activity and staging the extent of liver scarring. We validated the prognostic performance of this system in 445 patients from 4 European centers.

Estimating the attributable fraction of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma due to hepatitis B and C.

A goal of the WHO strategy on the elimination of hepatitis as a public threat is a 65% reduction in the attributable mortality. Deaths related to hepatitis B and C infections are mostly due to decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but accurately measuring mortality is challenging as death certificates often do not capture the underlying disease. The aim of this collaborative study between European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) was to assess a WHO-developed protocol to support countries in implementing studies to collect data on the fraction of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma attributable to hepatitis B and C. Three sentinel sites (in Bulgaria, Norway and Portugal) collected data for patients first admitted or seen in their centres during 2016. Patients with cirrhosis or HCC were identified through patient files or healthcare databases using ICD-10 codes. The proportion of patients with cirrhosis and HCC who tested positive for HBV and HCV were calculated to estimate the aetiological fractions. After the pilot study was completed, each site was asked about the feasibility and acceptability of the protocol. A total of 1249 patients presenting with cirrhosis and/or HCC were evaluated across the three sites. The prevalence of HBV and HCV among cases of cirrhosis showed that in Norway and Portugal, HCV was responsible for about one-quarter of the cases, whereas in Bulgaria, HBV was more common. For HCC, HCV was responsible for more than one-third of cases in Norway and Portugal, while in Bulgaria HBV was more frequent as the underlying cause. Results obtained during the pilot study were comparable to published estimates obtained through statistical modelling or meta-analyses. Several challenges were reported from the sites involved in the pilot including the considerable time needed for reviewing the hospital records and extracting patient data. The pilot demonstrated the feasibility of collecting data on the prevalence of HBV and HCV infection among patients with cirrhosis and HCC in sentinel sites. This method can be used to estimate mortality attributable to HBV and HCV for elimination monitoring. Where easily implementable, sentinel studies are the best way to empower countries, get up-to date data and closely monitor the changes in the attributable fraction at a country level.

Outcomes of excessive alcohol drinkers without baseline evidence of chronic liver disease after 15 years follow-up: Heavy burden of cancer and liver disease mortality.

BACKGROUND: Most long-term heavy drinkers do not have clinically evident chronic liver disease (CLD). However, at any time-point, their risk of developing CLD remains unknown. We aimed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of a group of heavy drinkers, without evidence of CLD at baseline. METHODS: A cohort of 123 long-term heavy drinkers without CLD were prospectively recruited in 2002 and retrospectively followed until 2018. RESULTS: At baseline (2002), median alcohol consumption was 271±203g/day during 21.5±20 years, 65% being abstinent during the previous 1.75±5 months. Patients were followed for 14±3 years. During follow-up, 53% reported any alcohol intake. Alcohol consumption during follow-up associated weakly with either 1- or 6-months previous abstinence at baseline. Until 2018, progression to CLD occurred in 6%, associating with years of alcohol intake during follow-up (OR 1.15 [1.01-1.31]) and baseline alkaline-phosphatase (OR 1.05 [1.01-1.10]). During follow-up, being abstinent for at least 1 year positively associated with CLD-free survival. 27% died (55% of cancer-mostly oropharyngeal cancer, 27% of cardiovascular disease, and 9% of liver disease), with a mean age of 71 years [69-74] (10 years less than the expected in the Portuguese population). Achieving abstinence for at least 1 year positively associated with overall survival, while smoking, and hepatic steatosis at baseline associated negatively. CONCLUSION: Long-term heavy drinkers seemed to have a decreased life expectancy compared with the overall Portuguese population. Cancer was the main cause of death. Our results suggest that progression to CLD depends mostly on continued alcohol intake. Alcohol abstinence, even if temporary, seems to decrease the risks of CLD and mortality.

Predictive factors for long-term survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Sorafenib, used for advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has an overall survival (OS) of 10 months. However, some patients have better response and long-term survival (LTS). Aims to assess predictive factors for LTS. METHODS: Retrospectively reviewed 77 advanced HCC patients, starting sorafenib treatment between 2007 and 2016, with LTS (OS ≥24 months) as primary endpoint. Univariate and multivariable analysis of clinical variables were performed in order to identify predictive factors for LTS. RESULTS: Patients: seventy (90.9%) males; median age: 65 years (39-82). All had cirrhosis mostly HCV infection (n = 32, 41.6%). Majority were Child-Pugh class A (n = 50, 64.9%); median MELD-Na: 11 (6-30). Multinodular HCC: 74% (n = 57); portal vein invasion (PVI): 50.6% (n = 39); extrahepatic spread: 18.2% (n = 14). Median time between HCC diagnosis and sorafenib start: 3.3 months (0-37.6). Median OS: 13 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.2-17.8]. Twenty-five (32.5%) patients were considered LTS, with amedian OS: 52.3 months (95% CI 17.1-87.4). Multivariable analysis identified Child-Pugh class A [odds ratio (OR) 11.1, 95% CI 1.78-69.54] and absence of PVI (OR 7.88, 95% CI 1.56-39.8) as independent predictors of LTS. Sub-analysis of Child-Pugh class A: absence of PVI (OR 7.13, 95% CI 1.69-30.2) and alpha-fetoprotein <400 ng/ml (OR 5.82, 95% CI 1.18-28.75) independently related to LTS. CONCLUSION: Despite global short median OS, sorafenib treatment is associated with longer than 2-year survival in a sub-group, more likely in compensated liver disease and absence of PVI.

The European NAFLD Registry: A real-world longitudinal cohort study of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), a progressive liver disease that is closely associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia, represents an increasing global public health challenge. There is significant variability in the disease course: the majority exhibit only fat accumulation in the liver but a significant minority develop a necroinflammatory form of the disease (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, NASH) that may progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. At present our understanding of pathogenesis, disease natural history and long-term outcomes remain incomplete. There is a need for large, well characterised patient cohorts that may be used to address these knowledge gaps and to support the development of better biomarkers and novel therapies. The European NAFLD Registry is an international, prospectively recruited observational cohort study that aims to establish a large, highly-phenotyped patient cohort and linked bioresource. Here we describe the infrastructure, data management and monitoring plans, and the standard operating procedures implemented to ensure the timely and systematic collection of high-quality data and samples. Already recruiting subjects at secondary/tertiary care centres across Europe, the Registry is supporting the European Union IMI2-funded LITMUS 'Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis' consortium, which is a major international effort to robustly validate biomarkers that diagnose, risk stratify and/or monitor NAFLD progression and liver fibrosis stage. The European NAFLD Registry has the demonstrable capacity to support research and biomarker development at scale and pace.