Three Logistic Predictive Models for the Prediction of Mortality and Major Pulmonary Complications after Cardiac Surgery.

Background and Objectives: Pulmonary complications are a leading cause of morbidity after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to develop models to predict postoperative lung dysfunction and mortality. Materials and Methods: This was a single-center, observational, retrospective study. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 11,285 adult patients who underwent all types of cardiac surgery from 2003 to 2015. We developed logistic predictive models for in-hospital mortality, postoperative pulmonary complications occurring in the intensive care unit, and postoperative non-invasive mechanical ventilation when clinically indicated. Results: In the "preoperative model" predictors for mortality were advanced age (p < 0.001), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class (p < 0.001) and emergent surgery (p = 0.036); predictors for non-invasive mechanical ventilation were advanced age (p < 0.001), low ejection fraction (p = 0.023), higher body mass index (p < 0.001) and preoperative renal failure (p = 0.043); predictors for postoperative pulmonary complications were preoperative chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p = 0.007), preoperative kidney injury (p < 0.001) and NYHA class (p = 0.033). In the "surgery model" predictors for mortality were intraoperative inotropes (p = 0.003) and intraoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (p < 0.001), which also predicted the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. There were no specific variables in the surgery model predicting the use of non-invasive mechanical ventilation. In the "intensive care unit model", predictors for mortality were postoperative kidney injury (p < 0.001), tracheostomy (p < 0.001), inotropes (p = 0.029) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio at discharge (p = 0.028); predictors for non-invasive mechanical ventilation were kidney injury (p < 0.001), inotropes (p < 0.001), blood transfusions (p < 0.001) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio at the discharge (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In this retrospective study, we identified the preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative characteristics associated with mortality and complications following cardiac surgery.

Intrinsic positive end-expiratory pressure during ventilation through small endotracheal tubes during general anesthesia: incidence, mechanism, and predictive factors.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety of mechanical ventilation and effectiveness of extrinsic positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) (PEEPe) in improving peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) during direct microlaryngeal laser surgery; to assess the incidence, amount, and nature (dynamic hyperinflation or airflow obstruction) of ensuing intrinsic PEEP (PEEPi); and to find a surrogate PEEPi indicator. DESIGN: Quasiexperimental. SETTING: S. Raffaele Hospital (Milano), November 2009 to December 2010. PATIENTS: Fifty-two adults scheduled for direct microlaryngeal laser surgery. Exclusion criterion is pregnancy. INTERVENTIONS: Twenty-one percent O2 mechanical ventilation through 4.5- to 5.5-mm internal diameter endotracheal tubes; in 29 patients, after measurement of PEEPi, an identical amount of PEEPe was added; and PEEPi. MEASUREMENTS: SpO2, peak (Pawpeak) and plateau (Pawplateau) airway pressure, and end-expiratory carbon dioxide were measured every 5 minutes. Respiratory compliance (Crs) was computed. PEEPi was measured (end-expiratory occlusion method). MAIN RESULTS: PEEPi ≥5 cm H2O occurred in 14 patients (27%) after intubation, in 16 (30%) at the beginning, and in 14 (27.3%) at the end of surgery. Thirty-one patients (59.4%) exhibited PEEPi ≥5 cm H2O on at least 1 time point. PEEPi at the beginning of surgery was positively correlated with Pawplateau, Crs, tidal volume, and body mass index. Body mass index was the only predictor for the occurrence of PEEPi ≥5 cm H2O. At the beginning of surgery, the Pawplateau receiver operating characteristic curve predicting PEEPi ≥5 cm H2O had area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85; best cutoff value of 15.5 cm H2O (sensitivity, 88.9%; specificity, 75%; correctly classified cases, 86.1%). When PEEPe was applied, in 23 cases (82.1%), total PEEP equaled PEEPe+ PEEPi; in 3 (10.7%), it was lower; and in 2 (7.1%), it was higher. Application of PEEPe increased SpO2 (P< .05) and Crs (P< .05). CONCLUSIONS: During ventilation through small endotracheal tubes, PEEPi (mostly due to dynamic hyperinflation) is common. Hemodynamic complications, barotrauma, and O2 desaturation (reversible with PEEPe) are rare. Pawplateau provided by ventilators is useful in suspecting and monitoring the occurrence of PEEPi and allows detection of lung overdistension as PEEPe is applied.