Developing a mortality risk prediction model using data of 3663 hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a retrospective cohort study in an Egyptian University Hospital.

PURPOSE: Since the declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic, a wide between-country variation was observed regarding in-hospital mortality and its predictors. Given the scarcity of local research and the need to prioritize the provision of care, this study was conducted aiming to measure the incidence of in-hospital COVID-19 mortality and to develop a simple and clinically applicable model for its prediction. METHODS: COVID-19-confirmed patients admitted to the designated isolation areas of Ain-Shams University Hospitals (April 2020-February 2021) were included in this retrospective cohort study (n = 3663). Data were retrieved from patients' records. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard regression were used. Binary logistic regression was used for creating mortality prediction models. RESULTS: Patients were 53.6% males, 4.6% current smokers, and their median age was 58 (IQR 41-68) years. Admission to intensive care units was 41.1% and mortality was 26.5% (972/3663, 95% CI 25.1-28.0%). Independent mortality predictors-with rapid mortality onset-were age ≥ 75 years, patients' admission in critical condition, and being symptomatic. Current smoking and presence of comorbidities particularly, obesity, malignancy, and chronic haematological disorders predicted mortality too. Some biomarkers were also recognized. Two prediction models exhibited the best performance: a basic model including age, presence/absence of comorbidities, and the severity level of the condition on admission (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) = 0.832, 95% CI 0.816-0.847) and another model with added International Normalized Ratio (INR) value (AUC = 0.842, 95% CI 0.812-0.873). CONCLUSION: Patients with the identified mortality risk factors are to be prioritized for preventive and rapid treatment measures. With the provided prediction models, clinicians can calculate mortality probability for their patients. Presenting multiple and very generic models can enable clinicians to choose the one containing the parameters available in their specific clinical setting, and also to test the applicability of such models in a non-COVID-19 respiratory infection.

Evolution of liver fibrosis after interferon-based anti-hepatitis C virus therapy failure in 3,049 chronic hepatitis C patients without cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Liver fibrosis is the underlying causeof hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related disease progression to endpoints such as cirrhosis, liver failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The aim of our study was to assess changes in hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic HCV who had a fibrosis evaluation at two time points at least six months apart. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study that included patients who had failed interferon therapy and received HCV retreatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) at least six months later. Patients were evaluated previously for fibrosis according to liver biopsy and fibrosis biomarkers were evaluated before pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PEG/RBV) therapy. Fibrosis was re-evaluated with fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores before starting DAAs. RESULTS: A total of 3,049 patients were included [age 43.47 ± 9.07 years, 55.20 % males] and baseline histopathology showed F1, F2, and F3 in 16.86 %, 46.21 %, and 36.93 %, respectively. The mean time interval between the last dose of previously failed IFN-therapy to the first dose of DAAs was 2.38 (±1.07) years. Overall, there was a significant increase in FIB-4 scores at retreatment times (from 11.71 ± 1.13 to 22.26 ± 1.68, p < 0.001). Patients with baseline FIB-4 < 1.45 (n = 1,569) and between 1.45 and 3.25 (n = 1,237) had significant increases in their FIB-4 at the retreatment time point [median difference; 0.41 (0.91) and 0.24 (1.5), p < 0.001, respectively], whereas patients with FIB-4 > 3.25 had significant reduction of their FIB-4 score at a retreatment timepoint [-0.98 (2.93), p ≤ 0.001]. CONCLUSION: Fibrosis progressed in most patients, even within six months for some patients, and this indicates retreatment of non-system vascular resistance patients even if they do not have significant fibrosis.

Seroprevalence of HBV/HCV coinfection among patients with HCV screened during the national campaign for HCV eradication in Egypt.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Little is known about the true prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) coinfection in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV). This multicenter nationwide study aimed to assess the seroprevalence of HBV among Egyptian patients with HCV and its possible risk factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a cross-sectional, multicenter, nationwide study. Data were extracted from the National Network of Viral Hepatitis Treatment Centers database. Baseline data of patients proved to be viremic during the national campaign for HCV eradication (October 2018-April 2019) were retrieved. Data included demographics, laboratory tests (HBsAg, CBC, liver biochemical profile, creatinine, AFP, HbA1c, and viral load), FIB-4 score calculation, and abdominal ultrasound results. RESULTS: Results of 297,965 patients showed that HBsAg was positive in 2,347 (0.8%) patients. Patients with HBV/HCV were 57% females and had a mean age of 51 ± 13 years. Patients with positive HBsAg showed significantly more tobacco consumption, intravenous drug abuse, hypertension, and diabetes. No significant difference was noted in HCV viremia between patients with HCV and those with HBV/HCV. Only 14% of patients with HBV/HCV had cirrhosis compared with the 9% of those with HCV; two of them had HCC. CONCLUSION: Although Egypt has a heavy HCV burden, the overall prevalence of HBV is low among patients with HCV infection. Comorbid conditions seem to favor coinfection.

Outcome of Colonoscopic Screening in Potential Liver Transplant Candidates.

BACKGROUND: Screening for neoplastic lesions is mandatory as a part of the evaluation process of potential candidates for liver transplant (LT). This work aimed at identifying the main findings in screening colonoscopy and their risk factors. METHODS: Endoscopic and pathologic findings of the biopsied lesions of 311 potential candidates for living donor liver transplant were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: Colorectal polyps (8.7%) were the most common colonoscopic finding, of which 4.18% were diagnosed as adenomas. Other findings included hemorrhoids (7.7%), portal hypertensive colopathies (3.5%), angiomatous malformations (2.6%), rectal varices (1.6%), and diverticulosis (1.6%). The univariate analysis revealed that the prevalence of colonic adenoma was significant in patients 50 years and older (P = .03; odds ratio, 1.178; 95% CI, 1.016-1.365) and in patients who had hepatocellular carcinoma (P = .043; odds ratio, 6.5; 95% CI, 1.002-42.172). In the multivariate analysis, age was found to be the single best predictor of the presence of adenoma (P = .044; odds ratio, 1.178; 95% CI, 1.005-1.382). CONCLUSION: We can conclude that a screening colonoscopy prior to liver donor liver transplant should be performed at least in every LT candidate 50 years or older. Colonic polyps were the most common findings on screening colonoscopy prior to LT.

Efficacy of loco-regional treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma prior to living donor liver transplantation: a report from a single center in Egypt.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The number of loco-regional therapies (LRTs) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has increased dramatically during the past decade, bridging or downstaging patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation. This study aimed to analyze the outcomes of LRTs prior to living donor liver transplantation in patients with HCC. METHODS: Sixty-two HCC patients received living donor liver transplantation at Ain Shams Center for Organ Transplantation over a 2-year period. Data from 29 HCC patients were analyzed. Twenty patients (68.97%) met the Milan Criteria and 4 patients (13.8%) exceeded the Milan Criteria, but met the University of California, San Francisco Criteria. Five patients (17.2%) exceeded the University of California, San Francisco Criteria. All patients underwent preoperative LRTs. The protocol of bridging/downstaging, methods, duration of follow-up, the number of patients who were successfully downstaged before liver transplantation (LT), and their outcomes after LT were recorded. RESULTS: There was a decrease in the mean overall size of focal lesions (from mean 5.46 to 4.11 cm) in the last abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan after LRT (p=0.0018). Discrepancies between the radiological findings and histopathology were as follows: in 16 patients (55.17%) the CT findings were consistent with the histopathological examination of the explanted liver. Underestimated tumor stage was documented in 10 patients (34.48%), and was overestimated by CT scan findings in 3 patients (10.34%). The 1-year survival rate was 93%. No patient had HCC recurrence after median follow-up of 21 months (range 1-46 months). CONCLUSION: These results encouraged tumor bridging/downstaging as a potential treatment option among carefully selected patients with HCC beyond conventional criteria for LT. Further studies on a large number of patients are necessary.

Bacterial infections post-living-donor liver transplantation in Egyptian hepatitis C virus-cirrhotic patients: A single-center study.

AIM: To determine risk factors, causative organisms and antimicrobial resistance of bacterial infections following living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in cirrhotic patients. METHODS: This prospective study included 45 patients with hepatitis C virus-related end-stage liver disease who underwent LDLT at Ain Shams Center for Organ Transplant, Cairo, Egypt from January 2014 to November 2015. Patients were followed-up for the first 3 mo after LDLT for detection of bacterial infections. All patients were examined for the possible risk factors suggestive of acquiring infection pre-, intra- and post-operatively. Positive cultures based on clinical suspicion and patterns of antimicrobial resistance were identified. RESULTS: Thirty-three patients (73.3%) suffered from bacterial infections; 21 of them had a single infection episode, and 12 had repeated infection episodes. Bile was the most common site for both single and repeated episodes of infection (28.6% and 27.8%, respectively). The most common isolated organisms were gram-negative bacteria. Acinetobacter baumannii was the most common organism isolated from both single and repeated infection episodes (19% and 33.3%, respectively), followed by Escherichia coli for repeated infections (11.1%), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa for single infections (19%). Levofloxacin showed high sensitivity against repeated infection episodes (P = 0.03). Klebsiella, Acinetobacter and Pseudomonas were multi-drug resistant (MDR). Pre-transplant hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and duration of drain insertion (in days) were independent risk factors for the occurrence of repeated infection episodes (P = 0.024). CONCLUSION: MDR gram-negative bacterial infections are common post-LDLT. Pre-transplant HCC and duration of drain insertion were independent risk factors for the occurrence of repeated infection episodes.

Characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma in Egyptian patients with primary Budd-Chiari syndrome.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) is caused by hepatic venous outflow obstruction. This work aimed at analyzing characteristics and factors associated with development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with primary BCS. METHODS: A total of 348 Egyptian BCS patients were included. They were presented to the Budd-Chiari Study Group of Ain Shams University Hospital. BCS was confirmed using abdominal Doppler US. Abdominal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), MR venography and/or multislice computed tomography (CT) were performed to confirm all diagnoses and to assess vascular anatomy. Hepatic focal lesions detected during the study period (2005-2011) were evaluated using serum alpha foetoprotein (AFP) level, imaging features and histopathological examination. RESULTS: Diagnosis of HCC was confirmed in 15/348 patients (4.3%). Imaging studies showed that 60% had multiple hepatic focal lesions ranging from 2 to 6.3 cm in size. The median level of serum AFP in BCS with HCC was 300 ng/mL vs 11 ng/mL in those without HCC (P<.001). A cut-off level >24.5 ng/mL for serum AFP showed sensitivity 80%, specificity 97.9%, positive predictive value 93.18% and negative predictive value 99.1% for detection of HCC in BCS patients. Male gender, older age, cigarette smoking, serum AFP (>24.5 ng/mL) and shrunken liver by ultrasonography were independent factors associated with HCC development. CONCLUSION: Male gender, older age and cigarette smoking are independent risk factors for development of HCC in BCS. Serum AFP is a good screening test in BCS.

Curative resection of pancreatic adenocarcinoma with major venous resection/repair is safe procedure but will not improve survival.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety and survival benefit of combined curative resection (CR) of the pancreas and major venous resection in the management of borderline resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. METHODS: In this IRB approved retrospective cohort study, patients who had pancreatic surgery (n=274) between 1998-2012 were reviewed. One hundred and seventy-five patients had malignant causes, of which 119 underwent CR. One hundred and two patients who did not require venous resection/repair (Group-I) were compared with 17 patients who had major vascular involvement (portal-vein/superior-mesenteric-vein) and underwent a vascular resection/repair (Group-II) during the CR. Demographics, operative and follow-up data were reviewed. RESULT: Type of the operations were: standard Whipple (n=53), pylorus-sparing-Whipple (n=41), total pancreatectomy (n=11), and distal pancreatectomy (n=13). In Group-II, venous involvement was excised and primarily repaired (n=12), or repaired using other veins (n=4) or a synthetic patch (n=1). Group-II had a significantly larger tumor size and more perineural invasion and peripancreatic soft tissue involvement (P<0.05). While complication rate, margin status, and duration of stay were not different between the groups, the median-overall-survival was higher for Group-I (15.34 months) than Group-II patients (7.18 months) (P=0.003). CONCLUSION: Pancreatic CR requiring intra-operative venous resection/repair is feasible and safe, but the survival of the patients who have pancreatic adenocarcinoma with venous involvement is poor irrespective of a successful venous resection.

Management of giant liver cysts.

BACKGROUND: Liver cysts are often asymptomatic. Symptomatic liver cysts are uncommon and can be managed by percutaneous aspiration, laparoscopic/open marsupialization, or resection. Our aim is to review our experience with management of giant liver cysts (GLC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: An IRB approved chart review of patients with liver cysts between 1995-2009 was performed. There were 34 GLC in 24 patients, 20 (83%) were females (mean age of 59.2 y). Pain was the main symptom in 20 patients. The average cyst size was 15.66 cm (6-32 cm) with 14 cysts over 15 cm in size. Two patients with GLC (11 and 15 cm) decided not to have surgery; 16 patients underwent laparoscopic surgery with one recurrence. One patient with laparoscopic marsupialization at another center was managed by open marsupialization and repair of the bile leak. Four of the patients underwent open marsupialization and one underwent open resection. Four patients with prior percutaneous aspiration had recurrences (100%), three underwent laparoscopic and one open marsupialization. An 8-wk pregnant patient underwent percutaneous aspiration of a 32 cm cyst to alleviate symptoms until delivery. RESULTS: The mean hospital stay for laparoscopic marsupialization was 5.57 d compared with 9.2 d for open procedure. Three (18.7%) postoperative complications (bile leak, recurrence, bleeding) occurred in the laparoscopic group, and one (20%) bile leak in the open group, with a mean follow-up of 41 mo. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic marsupialization of GLC is as effective and safe as open procedures in preventing cyst recurrence regardless of cyst size and location, and affords a relatively shorter hospital stay.