Emulated Trial for Discharge Prescription of Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy and 15-Year Survival After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery.

OBJECTIVES: To explore admission and discharge prescription rates of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT), defined as aggregate antiplatelet agents, statins, and ß-blockers, after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to reveal its association with long-term survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study-based emulated trial of patients undergoing elective or semi-elective isolated CABG surgery in 7 cardiothoracic units in Israel from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2007, and followed up until December 31, 2020, for all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Only 59.2% of 968 patients (n=573) were discharged on GDMT after CABG surgery. Admission GDMT use conferred a 7 times greater likelihood of discharge GDMT prescription (odds ratio, 7.07; 95% CI, 5.04 to 9.91; P<.001), with no sex differences observed. After applying inverse probability of treatment weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced between groups. During a median follow-up of 13.7 years, a Cox regression model with propensity score-adjusted inverse probability of treatment weighting revealed lower mortality in patients with discharge GDMT prescription who underwent CABG surgery than in their counterparts (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.93; P=.008). CONCLUSION: The use of aggregate GDMT before surgery conferred a greater likelihood of GDMT prescription upon discharge, which, in turn, is associated with better long-term survival. Educational efforts of pertinent medical professionals are needed to minimize preventive treatment gaps. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00356863.

Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Pancreatic Cancer Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

Importance: Concerns have been raised that glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Objective: To investigate the association of GLP-1RA treatment with pancreatic cancer incidence over 9 years of follow-up. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this population-based historical cohort study, adult patients (aged 21 to 89 years) with type 2 diabetes insured by Clalit Healthcare Services, the largest state-mandated health organization in Israel, were followed up from 2009, when GLP-1RA became available in Israel, until pancreatic cancer diagnosis, death, reaching age 90 years, or end of follow-up (December 2017). Data were analyzed from June 2022 to November 2023. Exposures: Treatment with GLP-1RA was compared with basal insulin. Main Outcome and Measures: Pancreatic cancer incidence was compared according to weighted cumulative exposures to GLP-1RA and to basal insulin in a Cox model implemented in discrete time, with time origin at 2 years after diabetes diagnosis, adjusting for confounding. In sensitivity analyses, propensity score-matched pair new-user design and prevalent new-user design were used for the comparison. Because of risk for reverse-causation bias, results in the fifth to seventh year after medication were emphasized. Results: During a cumulative follow-up of 3 290 439 person-years of 543 595 adults with a mean (SD) age of 59.9 (12.8) years (277 502 women [51%]) with incident diabetes, 1665 patients received pancreatic cancer diagnoses. In total, 33 377 patients (6.1%) used GLP-1RA and 106 849 (19.7%) used basal insulin. The estimated hazard ratio (HR) for pancreatic cancer associated with incremental use of 1 defined daily dose per day of GLP-1RA compared with basal insulin in the fifth to seventh year previously (all other characteristics, including age, sex, ethnic background, sociodemographic status, baseline body mass index, smoking history, history of pancreatitis, other glucose-lowering medications treatment history, and length of diabetes, being equal) was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.15-1.71). The new-user and prevalent new-user designs showed HRs from the fifth year onwards following initiation of GLP-1RA vs basal insulin of 0.52 (95 % CI, 0.19-1.41) and 0.75 (95 % CI, 0.37-1.53), respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: In this historical cohort study of adults with type 2 diabetes, no support for an increased pancreatic cancer incidence over 7 years following start of GLP-1RA treatment was found. However, monitoring for pancreatic cancer risk beyond 7 years following initiation of therapy is still required. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02072902.

Reverse causation biases weighted cumulative exposure model estimates, but can be investigated in sensitivity analyses.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the effects of reverse causation on estimates from the weighted cumulative exposure (WCE) model that is used in pharmacoepidemiology to explore drug-health outcome associations, and to identify sensitivity analyses for revealing such effects. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: 314,099 patients with diabetes under Clalit Health Services, Israel, were followed over 2002-2012. The association between metformin and pancreatic cancer (PC) was explored using a WCE model within the framework of discrete-time Cox regression. We used computer simulations to explore the effects of reverse causation on estimates of a WCE model and to examine sensitivity analyses for revealing and adjusting for reverse causation. We then applied those sensitivity analyses to our data. RESULTS: Simulation demonstrated bias in the weighted cumulative exposure model and showed that sensitivity analysis could reveal and adjust for these biases. In our data, a positive association was observed (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.24-4.73) with metformin exposure in the previous 2 years. After applying sensitivity analysis, assuming reverse causation operated up to 4 years before cancer diagnosis, the association between metformin and PC was no longer apparent. CONCLUSION: Reverse causation can cause substantial bias in the WCE model. When suspected, sensitivity analyses based on causal analysis are advocated.

Polypharmacy is differentially associated with 20-year mortality among community-dwelling elderly women and men: The Israel Glucose Intolerance, Obesity and Hypertension cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Elderly individuals are characterized by multimorbidity and high medication intake, entailing risks for adverse events. We examined the overall and sex-specific association of polypharmacy (≥5 drugs concurrently) with 20-year mortality among community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Survivors of the longitudinal Israel Study of Glucose Intolerance, Obesity, and Hypertension underwent extensive evaluation during 1999-2004, and were followed-up for all-cause mortality until 2019. Cox regression examined association of polypharmacy with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Data included 1210 participants (mean baseline age 72.9 ± 7.4 years, 53% females), 50.7% of them died over a median follow-up of 12.8 years. Women received a higher mean number of drugs (4.3 vs 3.5; p < 0.0001), were twice more likely to take vitamins, and had higher comorbidity. Polypharmacy prevalence was 38.3%, and more frequent with age, female sex, European-American origin, sedentary lifestyle and poor self-rated health. Polypharmacy was independently associated with mortality in women only (HR=1.41, 95%CI:1.05-1.89). An interaction was found with sex (p = 0.045). CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy was more prevalent in older women than men and associated with increased 20-year mortality in women only. Sex-specific adaptation of guidelines for appropriate drug use among community-dwelling older adults is warranted.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

The insulin sensitivity Mcauley index (MCAi) is associated with 40-year cancer mortality in a cohort of men and women free of diabetes at baseline.

BACKGROUND: The association between insulin resistance and cancer-mortality is not fully explored. We investigated the association between several insulin sensitivity indices (ISIs) and cancer-mortality over 3.5 decades in a cohort of adult men and women. We hypothesized that higher insulin resistance will be associated with greater cancer-mortality risk. METHODS: A cohort of 1,612 men and women free of diabetes during baseline were followed since 1979 through 2016 according to level of insulin resistance (IR) for cause specific mortality, as part of the Israel study on Glucose Intolerance, Obesity and Hypertension (GOH). IR was defined according to the Mcauley index (MCAi), calculated by fasting insulin and triglycerides, the Homeostatic Model Assessment (HOMA), the Matsuda Insulin Sensitivity Index (MISI), and the Quantitative Insulin Sensitivity Check Index (QUICKI), calculated by plasma glucose and insulin. RESULTS: Mean age at baseline was 51.5 ± 8.0 years, 804 (49.9%) were males and 871 (54.0%) had prediabetes. Mean follow-up was 36.7±0.2 years and 47,191 person years were accrued. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risks analysis adjusted for age, sex, country of origin, BMI, blood pressure, total cholesterol, smoking and glycemic status, revealed an increased risk for cancer-mortality, HR = 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1-2.0, p = 0.005) for the MCAi Q1 compared with Q2-4. No statistically significant associations were observed between the other ISIs and cancer-mortality. CONCLUSION: The MCAi was independently associated with an increased risk for cancer-mortality in adult men and women free of diabetes and should be further studied as an early biomarker for cancer risk.

Association between Self-Classification of COVID-19 Risk Levels and Adverse Lifestyle Changes among Physically Active Older Adults Following the Coronavirus Outbreak.

The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed barriers to a healthy lifestyle, especially for older adults who are considered to be at a high-risk of infection. This study examined the associations between negative changes and the self-classification to COVID-19 risk level among physically active older adults who are members of a nationwide health club chain. A cross-sectional digital survey was sent to 19,160 older adults (age ≥ 65). The data collected included information on the subjects' self-classification to the COVID-19 high-risk group (HRG) and changes in physical activity (PA), body weight, and smoking habits since the outbreak. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the associations between the dependent variables of 'experienced a negative change' and the independent variables. Of the 1670 survey respondents, 78.3% classified themselves as COVID-19 HRG. Over half of the respondents reported a reduction in PA hours, 26.6% reported weight gain, and 17.7% of smokers increased their amount of smoking. A self-classification to the HRG was associated with 1.46 (95%CI 1.10−1.93, p < 0.009) and 1.67 (95%CI 1.21−2.31, p < 0.002) greater odds for reduced hours of exercise and weight gain compared to the not high-risk group, respectively. Decision makers should consider how policies may cause barriers to a healthy lifestyle and develop risk communication strategies to encourage positive health-related behaviors, even during a pandemic.

Is health-related quality of life 1-year after coronary artery bypass graft surgery associated with living in a greener environment?

INTRODUCTION: Greenery in the residential environment and in the hospital has been associated with improved surgical outcomes and recovery. We investigated the association between the level of residential greenness of patients with coronary disease and their heart disease-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) 1-year after a coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. METHODS: Participants in a prospective cohort study who underwent CABG surgery at seven cardiothoracic units throughout Israel during the years 2004-2007 filled in the MacNew HRQoL one day before and one year after surgery. Successful recovery was defined as ≥0.5 increase in the MacNew score between baseline and follow-up. Exposure to residential greenness in 90 m and 300 m buffers around the patient's home was assessed with Linear Spectral Unmixing analysis of Landsat 30 m imagery. RESULTS: The cohort comprised of 861 patients (22% female) with a mean age of 65.5 years, and 59.2% classified as low-income. In the total cohort, higher residential greenness was associated with an improvement in emotional HRQoL (OR = 1.33 (95%CI: 0.99-1.79)), adjusting for demographic and socio-economic factors, living in the periphery/center, presence of diabetes, attending cardiac rehabilitation following surgery, BMI, and change in physical fitness and depression over the 1-year follow-up. Although no association was found between greenness and change in the physical or social subscales, a positive association was specifically observed among the low-income patients for the global HRQoL score, OR = 1.42 (95%CI: 0.97-2.10), as compared to the higher-income patients, p for interaction = 0.03. CONCLUSIONS: Residential greenness is associated with improvement in HRQoL 1-year after CABG surgery, but not the physical and social scales, only in low-income patients. Ensuring greenery in the living environment may act as a social intervention that supports human health and disease recovery.

Metformin Treatment Among Men With Diabetes and the Risk of Prostate Cancer: A Population-Based Historical Cohort Study.

There is conflicting evidence regarding the association between metformin treatment and prostate cancer risk in diabetic men. We investigated this association in a population-based Israeli cohort of 145,617 men aged 21-89 years with incident diabetes who were followed over the period 2002-2012. We implemented a time-dependent covariate Cox model, using weighted cumulative exposure to relate metformin history to prostate cancer risk, adjusting for use of other glucose-lowering medications, age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. To adjust for time-varying glucose control variables, we used inverse probability weighting of a marginal structural model. With 666,553 person-years of follow-up, 1,592 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer. Metformin exposure in the previous year was positively associated with prostate cancer risk (per defined daily dose; without adjustment for glucose control, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.96); with adjustment, HR = 1.42 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.94)). However, exposure during the previous 2-7 years was negatively associated with risk (without adjustment for glucose control, HR = 0.58 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.93); with adjustment, HR = 0.60 (95% CI: 0.33, 1.09)). These positive and negative associations with previous-year and earlier metformin exposure, respectively, need to be confirmed and better understood.

Residential greenness and increased physical activity in patients after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

AIMS: Physical activity is a fundamental component of rehabilitation following coronary artery bypass (CABG) surgery. Proximity to neighbourhood green spaces may encourage physical activity. We investigated the association between residential greenness and exercise-related physical activity post-CABG surgery. METHODS: Participants in a prospective cohort study of 846 patients (78% men) who underwent CABG surgery at seven cardiothoracic units during the time period 2004-2007 were interviewed regarding their physical activity habits one day before and one year after surgery. Exposure to residential neighbourhood greenness (within a 300 m buffer around their place of residence) was measured using the Normalized Difference Vegetative Index. Participation in exercise-related physical activity (yes/no), weekly duration of exercise-related physical activity and the change in exercise-related physical activity between baseline and follow-up were examined for associations with residential greenness, adjusting for socio-demographic factors, propensity score adjusted participation in cardiac rehabilitation and health-related covariates after multiple imputation for missing variables. RESULTS: Living in a higher quartile of residential greenness was associated with a 52% greater odds of being physically active (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.22-1.90). This association persisted only (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.35-2.27) among patients who did not participate in cardiac rehabilitation following surgery and was stronger in women (OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.40-4.07) than in men (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.07-1.75). Participants who lived in greener areas were more likely to increase their post-surgical physical activity than those who lived in less green areas (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.25-2.01). CONCLUSIONS: Residential greenness appears to be beneficial in increasing exercise-related physical activity in cardiac patients, especially those not particpating in cardiac rehabilitation after CABG surgery.

Cardiovascular Toxicities of Antiangiogenic Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors: A Retrospective, Pharmacovigilance Study.

BACKGROUND: Vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are an essential therapeutic option in the management of various solid tumors, particularly renal cell carcinoma (RCC). However, post-marketing data regarding their potential cardiovascular toxicities are scant. OBJECTIVE: To identify and characterize cardiovascular adverse events (CVAEs) of VEGFR-TKIs indicated for RCC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Disproportionality analysis of the US Food and Drug Administration adverse event reporting system (July 2014-December 2019) using the reporting odds ratio (ROR) and the lower bound of the Information component (IC) 95% credibility interval (IC025 > 0 is significant). RESULTS: We identified 51,836 adverse event reports of sunitinib, pazopanib, axitinib, cabozantinib, and lenvatinib in the full database [36% women; median age 65 years (range 57-73)]. CVAEs accounted for 11,784 (23%) of the reports, with hypertension [n = 5548 (11%), ROR = 6.55 (95% CI 6.37-6.74), IC025 = 2.48] and hemorrhages [n = 3710 (7.2%), ROR = 1.28 (1.24-1.32), IC025 = 0.28] being the most frequent types. Additional CVAEs were over-reported with VEGFR-TKIs treatment, including aortic dissection [n = 61 (0.1%), ROR = 3.50 (2.71-4.51)], pericardial diseases [n = 173 (0.3%), ROR = 1.98 (1.70-2.30)], cardiomyopathy [n = 61 (0.1%), ROR = 1.89 (1.47-2.43)], heart failure [n = 868 (1.7%), ROR = 1.35 (1.26-1.44)], and venous thromboembolism [n = 604 (1.2%), ROR = 1.33 (1.23-1.45), all IC025 > 0]. The major pericardial disorder was non-malignant pericardial effusion [n = 134 (77%)]. Aortic dissections were also over-reported in patients without concomitant elevated blood pressure [ROR = 2.68 (1.97-3.63), IC025 = 0.91]. Finally, CVAEs were reported more often following lenvatinib and sunitinib treatment compared to other VEGFR-TKIs. CONCLUSIONS: In post-marketing surveillance data, VEGFR-TKIs are associated with increased reporting of various CVAEs, including pericardial diseases, particularly non-malignant pericardial effusion, and aortic dissections. Moreover, VEGFR-TKIs differ in their CVAE reporting patterns. Clinicians should be conscious of these findings in the care of VEGFR-TKIs recipients.

Years of potential life lost in pre-diabetes and diabetes mellitus: data from a 40-year follow-up of the Israel study on Glucose intolerance, Obesity and Hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: We examined years of potential life lost (YPLL) associated with pre-diabetes as compared with either normoglycemia or diabetes, using data of the Israel cohort of Glucose intolerance, Obesity and Hypertension 40-year follow-up. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Men and women (N=2844, mean age 52.0±8.2 years) who underwent oral glucose tolerance test and anthropometric measurements, during 1976-1982, were followed for mortality until May 2019. Multiple imputation procedures for missing mortality dates and multivariable regression mixed models were applied. RESULTS: At baseline, 35.8%, 48.8% and 15.4% individuals were found with normoglycemia, pre-diabetes, and diabetes, respectively. The average difference in YPLL associated with pre-diabetes as compared with normoglycemia was 4.3 years (95% CI 3.3 to 5.2; p<0.001). YPLL were 1 year higher in women with pre-diabetes than in men with pre-diabetes. These differences persisted mainly in individuals younger than 60 years, and those with body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2, at baseline. Adjusting for age, sex, country of origin, smoking status, BMI, and blood pressure, the average difference in YPLL associated with pre-diabetes as compared with normoglycemia was 2.0 years (95% CI 1.2 to 2.8; p<0.001). Significant reductions of 5.9 years (95% CI 4.8 to 7.0) on average were observed for diabetes as compared with pre-diabetes and 7.9 years (95% CI 6.7 to 9.1) as compared with individuals with normoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that life expectancy of middle-aged individuals with pre-diabetes is shorter than of normoglycemic ones. These findings are especially relevant in view of the rising worldwide prevalence of pre-diabetes within younger age groups and underscore the crucial importance of interventions by either lifestyle modification or drug therapy capable of delaying progression from pre-diabetes to diabetes to reduce the YPLL in this high-risk group.

High Expression Level of PPARγ in CD24 Knockout Mice and Gender-Specific Metabolic Changes: A Model of Insulin-Sensitive Obesity.

BACKGROUND: The heat-stable HSA/CD24 gene encodes a protein that shows high expression levels in adipocyte precursor cells but low levels in terminally differentiated adipocytes. Its high expression in many types of human cancer suggests an association between cancer, diabetes, and obesity, which is currently unclear. In addition, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) is a regulator of adipogenesis that plays a role in insulin sensitivity, lipid metabolism, and adipokine expression in adipocytes. AIM: To assess gender-dependent changes in CD24 KO and its association with PPARγ expression. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: WT and CD24 KO mice were monitored from birth up to 12 months, and various physiological and molecular characteristics were analysed. Mean body weight and adipose mass were higher in KO mice than in WT mice. Male, but not female, KO mice showed increased insulin sensitivity, glucose uptake, adipocyte size, and PPARγ expression than WT mice. In addition, enteric bacterial populations, assessed through high-throughput sequencing of stool 16S rRNA genes, were significantly different between male KO and WT mice. CONCLUSIONS: CD24 may negatively regulate PPARγ expression in male mice. Furthermore, the association between the CD24 and insulin sensitivity suggests a possible mechanism for diabetes as a cancer risk factor. Finally, CD24 KO male mice may serve as a model of obesity and insulin hyper-sensitivity.

Associations of dietitian follow-up counselling visits and physical exercise with weight loss one year after sleeve gastrectomy.

PURPOSE: To examine associations of patients' attendance to follow-up meetings with a registered dietitian (RD) and physical exercise practices with weight loss during the 1 year following laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (SG). METHODS: Of 241 patients with obesity who underwent SG during 2012, 184 (76.3%) participated in a 1-year follow-up telephone interview and had information on number of RD follow-up meetings. Clinical information was available from computerized patient files. Multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusting for propensity score, was computed to reveal factors associated with greater weight loss. RESULTS: The mean %TWL was 31.4 ± 6.1 and the mean number of reported RD meetings during the year following SG was 4.6. The proportion of physically active patients increased by 15% (from 23 to 42) among those who attended at least 3 RD follow-up meetings (n = 123), and by 5% (from 18 to 23) among those who attended fewer than 3 meetings (n = 61) (p = 0.05). Patients conducting physical exercise reported a lower level of pain/discomfort on the EQ5D quality-of-life questionnaire (p = 0.03). The adjusted regression model revealed no association between the number of RD follow-up meetings and weight-reduction success, but physical exercise during the year following SG conferred a 2.6 times greater odds of belonging to the upper two tertiles of the % excess body weight loss ( 95% CI 1.2-5.3). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with better adherence to RD follow-up meetings were also more physically active. Patients on physical exercise also achieved greater weight reduction following SG, and reported less pain or discomfort. Nutritional counselling and physical exercise are necessary to ensure maximal and sustainable benefits from SG.  LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, Cohort study.

Imputing missing time-dependent covariate values for the discrete time Cox model.

We describe a procedure for imputing missing values of time-dependent covariates in a discrete time Cox model using the chained equations method. The procedure multiply imputes the missing values for each time-period in a time-sequential manner, using covariates from the current and previous time-periods as well as the survival outcome. The form of the outcome variable used in the imputation model depends on the functional form of the time-dependent covariate(s) and differs from the case of Cox regression with only baseline covariates. This time-sequential approach provides an approximation to a fully conditional approach. We illustrate the procedure with data on diabetics, evaluating the association of their glucose control with the risk of selected cancers. Using simulations we show that the suggested estimator performed well (in terms of bias and coverage) for completely missing at random, missing at random and moderate non-missing-at-random patterns. However, for very strong non-missing-at-random patterns, the estimator was seriously biased and the coverage was too low. The procedure can be implemented using multiple imputation with the Fully conditional Specification (FCS) method (MI procedure in SAS with FCS statement or similar packages in other software, e.g. MICE in R). For use with event times on a continuous scale, the events would need to be grouped into time-intervals.

Metformin Treatment and Cancer Risk: Cox Regression Analysis, With Time-Dependent Covariates, of 320,000 Persons With Incident Diabetes Mellitus.

There is conflicting evidence regarding the association between metformin use and cancer risk in diabetic patients. During 2002-2012, we followed a cohort of 315,890 persons aged 21-87 years with incident diabetes who were insured by the largest health maintenance organization in Israel. We used a discrete form of weighted cumulative metformin exposure to evaluate the association of metformin with cancer incidence. This was implemented in a time-dependent covariate Cox model, adjusting for treatment with other glucose-lowering medications, as well as age, sex, ethnic background, socioeconomic status, smoking (for bladder and lung cancer), and parity (for breast cancer). We excluded from the analysis metformin exposure during the year before cancer diagnosis in order to minimize reverse causation of cancer on changes in medication use. Estimated hazard ratios associated with exposure to 1 defined daily dose of metformin over the previous 2-7 years were 0.98 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.82, 1.18) for all-sites cancer (excluding prostate and pancreas), 1.05 (95% CI: 0.67, 1.63) for colon cancer, 0.98 (95% CI: 0.49, 1.97) for bladder cancer, 1.02 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.78) for lung cancer, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.39) for female breast cancer. Our results do not support an association between metformin treatment and the incidence of major cancers (excluding prostate and pancreas).

The metabolic syndrome and its components are differentially associated with chronic diseases in a high-risk population of 350 000 adults: A cross-sectional study.

AIMS: We compared strengths of associations conferred by the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components across four chronic disease categories (cancer, cardiovascular diseases [CVDs], chronic kidney disease [CKD], and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD]) in a community-dwelling high-risk population. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis of Israeli adults insured in a single health maintenance organization during 2010 to 2013 and having greater than or equal to two MetS components (hypertension, dysglycemia, low high-density lipoprotein level, high plasma triglyceride level, and obesity). Data regarding MetS components, chronic disease prevalence, and sociodemographic variables were retrieved from electronic health records and disease registries. RESULTS: Among 347 244 eligible members, 54.2% had MetS. MetS was negatively associated with cancer, (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.93) and positively associated with CKD (PR = 1.07, [1.01-1.13]). Some MetS components conferred different associations across the chronic diseases: a high triglyceride level was positively associated with cancer (PR = 1.15, 1.12-1.18) and CKD (PR = 1.37, 1.32-1.41) but negatively associated with CVD (PR = 0.88, 0.86-0.90) and COPD (PR = 0.93, 0.88-0.98). In the presence of MetS, those with dysglycemia had higher cancer prevalence than those with normoglycemia (PR-interaction MetS*dysglycemia on cancer = 1.14, 1.06-1.22). Likewise, in the presence of MetS, men were more likely than women to present with CVD (PR-interaction MetS*sex on CVD = 1.12, [1.05-1.20]). CONCLUSIONS: Prevalences of the MetS and MetS components distribute unequally across four chronic diseases. MetS including dysglycemia may warrant screening for cancer, and MetS in males may indicate the presence of CVD. Longitudinal studies may reveal if MetS is associated with different risks or merely indicates better prognosis once having a chronic illness.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism.

Importance: It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Objective: To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731 728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421 537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. Exposures: A panel of several established cardiovascular risk factors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CHD], 25 131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). Results: Of the 731 728 participants from the ERFC, 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421 537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. Conclusions and Relevance: Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.

Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes may serve as a potential marker for pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic cancer has an extremely highly case fatality. Diabetes is a well-established strong risk factor for pancreatic cancer. Compared with a nondiabetic population, we previously reported a 15- and 14-fold greater risk for detecting pancreatic cancer during the first year after diagnosing diabetes in adult women and men, respectively, which dropped during the second year to 5.4-fold and 3.5-fold, respectively, and stabilized around 3-fold for the rest of the 11-year follow-up in our historical cohort. The population attributable risk during the 11-year period was 13.3% and 14.1% in prevalent diabetic women and men, respectively. This means that one out of about every 8 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer has been previously diagnosed with diabetes. The globally high prevalence of diabetes and the aggravating implications of a delayed pancreatic cancer diagnosis call for newly-onset diabetes to be considered a potential marker for an underlying pancreatic cancer and addressed accordingly.